Josh Allen throw chart

[Just Joshin']

So if you had a Hemi Charger you would throttle back?

 

The long passes open up the run game (in theory) and the short pass game.  Once the receivers can show some ability to get open, then it helps the other areas.

 

Of course, this means the line needs to buy more time for the play to develop.

[TigerJ]

Certainly deep passes are lower percentage plays than check downs and dumpoffs, but then every deep pass is worth multiple dumpoffs.  With the addition of deep speed, Daboll is deliberately incorporating a lot more deep routes.  It may be that right now, McKenzie and Foster, the recipients on the deep throws are just better at getting separation on deep routes.  I wouldn't make too much of it.  I think next season we're going to see a far more mature Josh Allen, and Daboll is going to have lots of variety in his game plans.  It's going to be fun to watch.

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yes that is exactly what he was saying.

 

Another example of why posting here is so futile sometimes.

So  you're saying we should crack each others skulls open and feast on the goo inside?!?!?  Hows that going to help my short game?

[Shaw66]

I saw somewhere a week ago or so a comment from McDermott that they've trying to get Allen to be satisfied with the more or less sure short ball more often.   

[Nextmanup]

Last week, something like 63% of his completions were within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage.

This week that percentage dropped to 46%.

 

So more longer completions this week.

 

 

[Rk_Bills86]

2 hours ago, PS 56 said:

From the Athletic:

 

If you just look quickly at the box score, you’ll see Allen completed only 50 percent of his passes for just over 200 yards and view this as a ho-hum game. Other stats help provide context, though. For one, Allen averaged 23.4 air yards per target, second most in the league this week heading into “Sunday Night Football.” His receivers also had an average of 2.31 yards of separation at the time of the catch (second worst in the league) and 2.63 yards of separation at the time of the throw (worst in the league).

 

And this doesn't account for the drops and PI that takes away from his stats - At least 3 completions that would have added a minimum of 50 yds. But lets say people don't want to acknowledge the could've/should've/would've - I'll say this and it's absolutely true - Allen goes through his reads - you can see it on a lot of plays - and THAT is what has me excited.

 

He's a rookie and our talent around him isn't exactly that amazing. But for everyone that likes completion percentage - Stafford was at 76% for an extra 4 yds...... Allen passes caught averaged 15.5 yds (that is astounding to read as a Bills fan since Flutie) and Stafford averaged 9.5 (not saying this is terrible). Just some food for thought.

[PrimeTime101]

8 hours ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

 

And this doesn't account for the drops and PI that takes away from his stats - At least 3 completions that would have added a minimum of 50 yds. But lets say people don't want to acknowledge the could've/should've/would've - I'll say this and it's absolutely true - Allen goes through his reads - you can see it on a lot of plays - and THAT is what has me excited.

 

He's a rookie and our talent around him isn't exactly that amazing. But for everyone that likes completion percentage - Stafford was at 76% for an extra 4 yds...... Allen passes caught averaged 15.5 yds (that is astounding to read as a Bills fan since Flutie) and Stafford averaged 9.5 (not saying this is terrible). Just some food for thought.

 

Right with a better offensive line and WR's

[longtimebillsfan]

13 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/buffalo-bills/season/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/13/pass

 

11 throws 15 yards or less and 12 throws over 15 yards. So why is this happening? because JA looks at deep throws first? well maybe but maybe its because they are not getting separation early on routs or maybe our OC is calling WAY TO MANY DEEP  PASSES!.   Doesn't the rate of witch a QB throws deep passes effect a passing %?

 

I just find it interesting.

 

Now lets compare this to  Mahomes chart https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/kansas-city-chiefs/season/week/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939/2018/15/pass

 

Other then the amount of throws look at the percent of deep throws to 10 yards or less?

29 throws within 15 yards or less, 6 throws over 15 yards?

 

Now here is Rogers throws on a GOOD GAME!  This game was against Miami and they won like 32 to 12. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/green-bay-packers/season/10/aaron-rodgers/ROD339293/2018/10/pass

 

18 passes 15 yards or less, 5 passes over 15 yards.  I CANT EVEN BELIEVE I AM SAYING THIS after years of not seeing enough deep throws... but do you think we are throwing deep a tad to much? lol

This is funny.  We need to let Josh be Josh.  This board was lit up during the Tyrod era lamenting that he never threw down feel.  We draft a qb with a cannon of an arm, and now he is throwing down field too much?

 

This is why TBD is so entertaining.  

[GunnerBill]

This week we definitely threw deep too much. We had two nice drives early on where Josh was in a ryhthm in the short and intermediate game and he was on point. If he is gonna win long term in the NFL that is how he needs to play. The long ball is nice and all, but when everyone agrees your Quarterback played well (as Josh did on Sunday) and you only put up 14 points you have to ask why. The answer is too many low % throws. In the late 3rd and early 4th it seemed to be all that Daboll was calling were deep shots. That is less sustainable. If we can find the balance, protect Josh Allen and sprinkle in the deep shots when appropriate then we could have something on offense.... as early as next season. 

[Billsfan1972]

13 completions for 204 or 15.7 yards per completion.  Add 2 PI's for another 66 yards and then we see his worth.  Oh and again 3-4 drops (a few would have been great catches but receivers got both hands on the ball).

 

BTW Stafford had 22 completions for 208 or 9.45 and Galloday made at least 2 catches that no Bill has made all season.  And Galloday was a 3rd round pick in his second season with already 1,000 yards (talking to you Zay)

 

Just listening to the Ringer & BIll Simmons & Cousin Sal are calling him "Can't miss TV".

 

They missed Shady and certainly some easy completions and shorter routes should be in the playbook.  

 

Hate this offense, enjoy Allen though.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Billsfan1972

[Rk_Bills86]

I think the offense is actually pretty good (scheme wise) - I think it's just first-year installment issues. Also if I remember correctly - earlier in the year it was mentioned that the Bills used the highest variation of formations and movement which I imagine is not easy to get players on the same page in 1 year, especially one with limited and/or younger talent across a large number of positions. 

 

Don't want to sound like a broken record because I'm clearly in the crowd that thinks Allen has a good chance to be at least in the top half of the league as a QB - Another offseason of learning, get a better O-line, Better weapons, and figure out how to get the ground game going(Lions dropping 6/7/8 into coverage and still stopping the run was hard to stomach) and we could very well be a dangerous team.

 

Not to compare teams because it wouldn't be fair, but I would love to see improvement similar to what the Browns are experiencing right now - Equally young team with new coaching installment but showing grit and growth. 

[PrimeTime101]

On ‎12‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 3:55 AM, longtimebillsfan said:

This is funny.  We need to let Josh be Josh.  This board was lit up during the Tyrod era lamenting that he never threw down feel.  We draft a qb with a cannon of an arm, and now he is throwing down field too much?

 

This is why TBD is so entertaining.  

name one other QB that throws 50% of the throws deeper then 15 yards? I bet you cant name one. Your lack of knowledge is what is entertaining.

[RMY26]

All Part of the Process, Let JA get the feel , timing and confidence for longer throws.  Why burn these less important games with dumpoffs, screens

and checkdowns?

[Chris66]

On 12/17/2018 at 2:26 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/buffalo-bills/season/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/13/pass

 

11 throws 15 yards or less and 12 throws over 15 yards. So why is this happening? because JA looks at deep throws first? well maybe but maybe its because they are not getting separation early on routs or maybe our OC is calling WAY TO MANY DEEP  PASSES!.   Doesn't the rate of witch a QB throws deep passes effect a passing %?

 

I just find it interesting.

 

Now lets compare this to  Mahomes chart https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/kansas-city-chiefs/season/week/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939/2018/15/pass

 

Other then the amount of throws look at the percent of deep throws to 10 yards or less?

29 throws within 15 yards or less, 6 throws over 15 yards?

 

Now here is Rogers throws on a GOOD GAME!  This game was against Miami and they won like 32 to 12. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/green-bay-packers/season/10/aaron-rodgers/ROD339293/2018/10/pass

 

18 passes 15 yards or less, 5 passes over 15 yards.  I CANT EVEN BELIEVE I AM SAYING THIS after years of not seeing enough deep throws... but do you think we are throwing deep a tad to much? lol

Dabolls system doesnt work that way. There are multiple receivers on each play. Its not designed to go to one guy unless its a screen. If there are are too many deep passes thats on Allen. He is the decision maker.

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Chris66 said:

Dabolls system doesnt work that way. There are multiple receivers on each play. Its not designed to go to one guy unless its a screen. If there are are too many deep passes thats on Allen. He is the decision maker.

I think you need to understand Allen is told to go first look then second look throw at this point. His reigns are not loos. watch his deep passes. most are first looks. this is a lazy take on what is really going on.

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, Chris66 said:

Dabolls system doesnt work that way. There are multiple receivers on each play. Its not designed to go to one guy unless its a screen. If there are are too many deep passes thats on Allen. He is the decision maker.

Horsehockey! 

 

Daboll's scheme calls for a lot of mid to deep passing plays and it has all season long. That is a big reason as to why this team didn't win many games all season as Peterman and Allen didn't have the needed experience to read a pre snap defense and set the proper protections.

 

Meanwhile it usually takes more then two seconds and sometimes up to four seconds to take a 3 to 5 step drop back to throw those mid to deep passes. This behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

 

This year the Buffalo Bills have attempted only 203 passes that were within 5 yards of the LoS which is the third fewest passes in the league. Nearly 50% of all of Josh Allen's passes have been for more then 10 yards or more past the LoS. 20% of his passes have gone for over 20 yards. Basically 1 in 5 passes this offense is going deep.

 

Not only does the OC call for deep passes with a bad line that has difficulty protecting the QB. The deep passes were going to players that really don't catch the ball all that well. Zay Jones with 84 targets, 45 catches a 53.6 catch percentage. Kelvin Benjamin 62 targets, 23 catches a 37.1 catch percentage. 

 

That said this years offense would be better off (as would Josh Allen's completion percentage) in throwing more to LeSean McCoy with his 40 targets, 29 catches a 72.5 catch percentage. McCoy led the 2017 Buffalo Bills in receptions with 59. Clay was next with 49. 

 

There are real reasons as to why this years team is 5-9 with a top defense and that is because this offensive coordinator runs his scheme regardless of who the QB is behind center. 

[Maine-iac]

On 12/17/2018 at 4:15 PM, TigerJ said:

Certainly deep passes are lower percentage plays than check downs and dumpoffs, but then every deep pass is worth multiple dumpoffs.  With the addition of deep speed, Daboll is deliberately incorporating a lot more deep routes.  It may be that right now, McKenzie and Foster, the recipients on the deep throws are just better at getting separation on deep routes.  I wouldn't make too much of it.  I think next season we're going to see a far more mature Josh Allen, and Daboll is going to have lots of variety in his game plans.  It's going to be fun to watch.

There were numerous times that there was a checkdown.  Allen is very bad at knowing presnap which plays to swing that ball out quickly and when to stand in the pocket and look down field.  That said he is a rookie that will improve every week.  He's also making a number of big plays looking downfield.  He and Foster just missed a TD this week and there are at least two others they just missed on the last couple of weeks to go with all the others they hit on.  Once he gets the feel for that though he'll raise his completion percentage and we'll move the chains a little more often.

On 12/19/2018 at 4:21 PM, Nihilarian said:

Horsehockey! 

 

Daboll's scheme calls for a lot of mid to deep passing plays and it has all season long. That is a big reason as to why this team didn't win many games all season as Peterman and Allen didn't have the needed experience to read a pre snap defense and set the proper protections.

 

Meanwhile it usually takes more then two seconds and sometimes up to four seconds to take a 3 to 5 step drop back to throw those mid to deep passes. This behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

 

This year the Buffalo Bills have attempted only 203 passes that were within 5 yards of the LoS which is the third fewest passes in the league. Nearly 50% of all of Josh Allen's passes have been for more then 10 yards or more past the LoS. 20% of his passes have gone for over 20 yards. Basically 1 in 5 passes this offense is going deep.

 

Not only does the OC call for deep passes with a bad line that has difficulty protecting the QB. The deep passes were going to players that really don't catch the ball all that well. Zay Jones with 84 targets, 45 catches a 53.6 catch percentage. Kelvin Benjamin 62 targets, 23 catches a 37.1 catch percentage. 

 

That said this years offense would be better off (as would Josh Allen's completion percentage) in throwing more to LeSean McCoy with his 40 targets, 29 catches a 72.5 catch percentage. McCoy led the 2017 Buffalo Bills in receptions with 59. Clay was next with 49. 

 

There are real reasons as to why this years team is 5-9 with a top defense and that is because this offensive coordinator runs his scheme regardless of who the QB is behind center. 

I can't disagree with this except I have to add that Daboll's scheme is working better each week.  Foster is catching TD's and he's very close to catching more.  Allen does need to swing it out to the RB a little quicker sometimes but with that said McCoy is worse at catching the ball than I thought he would be and this week in particular the droppsies seemed to come back around for everyone.

[ganesh]

On 12/18/2018 at 1:00 AM, teef said:

my only problem with the deep throws are that they seem to happen too much on 3rd and short.  maybe it's not and i'm just appalled when it happens, but i feel like there's too many manageable 3rd down plays that end up in a deep bomb.  if the opportunity is there, go for it, but i feel like he may force the big play a bit too much this point in time.

young blood !!

On 12/20/2018 at 2:51 AM, Nihilarian said:

Horsehockey! 

 

Daboll's scheme calls for a lot of mid to deep passing plays and it has all season long. That is a big reason as to why this team didn't win many games all season as Peterman and Allen didn't have the needed experience to read a pre snap defense and set the proper protections.

 

Meanwhile it usually takes more then two seconds and sometimes up to four seconds to take a 3 to 5 step drop back to throw those mid to deep passes. This behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

 

This year the Buffalo Bills have attempted only 203 passes that were within 5 yards of the LoS which is the third fewest passes in the league. Nearly 50% of all of Josh Allen's passes have been for more then 10 yards or more past the LoS. 20% of his passes have gone for over 20 yards. Basically 1 in 5 passes this offense is going deep.

 

Not only does the OC call for deep passes with a bad line that has difficulty protecting the QB. The deep passes were going to players that really don't catch the ball all that well. Zay Jones with 84 targets, 45 catches a 53.6 catch percentage. Kelvin Benjamin 62 targets, 23 catches a 37.1 catch percentage. 

 

That said this years offense would be better off (as would Josh Allen's completion percentage) in throwing more to LeSean McCoy with his 40 targets, 29 catches a 72.5 catch percentage. McCoy led the 2017 Buffalo Bills in receptions with 59. Clay was next with 49. 

 

There are real reasons as to why this years team is 5-9 with a top defense and that is because this offensive coordinator runs his scheme regardless of who the QB is behind center. 

Our defense is not a Top defense...It is a middling defense that has given up too many points especially in the red zone.  Our D plays nothing like in Baltimore where they are protecting their 1st RD QB.   Allen has no Running game and an average defense.  You can't expect the rookie to win the games by himself.

[WideRightRevenge]

On 12/17/2018 at 2:26 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/buffalo-bills/season/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/13/pass

 

11 throws 15 yards or less and 12 throws over 15 yards. So why is this happening? because JA looks at deep throws first? well maybe but maybe its because they are not getting separation early on routs or maybe our OC is calling WAY TO MANY DEEP  PASSES!.   Doesn't the rate of witch a QB throws deep passes effect a passing %?

 

I just find it interesting.

 

Now lets compare this to  Mahomes chart https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/kansas-city-chiefs/season/week/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939/2018/15/pass

 

Other then the amount of throws look at the percent of deep throws to 10 yards or less?

29 throws within 15 yards or less, 6 throws over 15 yards?

 

Now here is Rogers throws on a GOOD GAME!  This game was against Miami and they won like 32 to 12. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/all/green-bay-packers/season/10/aaron-rodgers/ROD339293/2018/10/pass

 

18 passes 15 yards or less, 5 passes over 15 yards.  I CANT EVEN BELIEVE I AM SAYING THIS after years of not seeing enough deep throws... but do you think we are throwing deep a tad to much? lol

 

After 15 years of dink and dunk ... I love the deep throws .. keep chucking Josh.

[PrimeTime101]

6 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

After 15 years of dink and dunk ... I love the deep throws .. keep chucking Josh.

same here I think his accuracy goes up and the big throws go down a bit when we have real wide receivers and a line