Comparing Rookie QB Seasons

[BuffaloHokie13]

So I have gone back as far as 2011, and entered all QB's rookie season stats that had at least 200 pass attempts. I haven't drawn any sweeping conclusions, but I do think it provides decent context for rookie stats and how they relate (or don't) to future success.

 

What do you guys think? See anything I'm missing?

 

I'll put out another update in 2 weeks when this year's class has wrapped up their season.

[Rigotz]

Stats are nice and all, but I don't think it's fair to compare rookie QBs without accounting for the team surrounding them.

Look at Jared Goff's stats before he had a supporting cast. Arguably worst statistics out of any rookie.

Now look at Dak Prescott's rookie year when he had a great O-Line and run game. Arguably best statistics out of any rookie.

 

I don't think there are a lot of people who would prefer Dak Prescott over Jared Goff now that the tables have turned.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Josh Allen has turned me into an "eye test" guy, and I hate "eye test" guys.  This is the worst.  

[Rigotz]

For comparison, here's Peyton Manning's rookie stats:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm

 

He didn't have a team around him ... and he would be middle to bottom of every category on your list.

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Stats are nice and all, but I don't think it's fair to compare rookie QBs without accounting for the team surrounding them.

Look at Jared Goff's stats before he had a supporting cast. Arguably worst statistics out of any rookie.

Now look at Dak Prescott's rookie year when he had a great O-Line and run game. Arguably best statistics out of any rookie.

 

I don't think there are a lot of people who would prefer Dak Prescott over Jared Goff now that the tables have turned.

That's kind of my point though, no? That rookie QB stats don't seem to relate to future success. I'm not saying that RG3 is better than Russ Wilson or Baker Mayfield is better than Andrew Luck. I'm saying that their rookie seasons were better. How that translates to future success is a different monster entirely.

 

As far as it being a fair comparison I haven't factored in supporting cast for any of them, though how much their teams put on their shoulders is factored into my rating. People regularly make the argument that all we need is a QB and our problems are solved, especially during draft time, but the roster certainly plays a part. This was just something I thought might be interesting, especially as people try to place how well this year's rookies are faring.

[ctk232]

13 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Stats are nice and all, but I don't think it's fair to compare rookie QBs without accounting for the team surrounding them.

Look at Jared Goff's stats before he had a supporting cast. Arguably worst statistics out of any rookie.

Now look at Dak Prescott's rookie year when he had a great O-Line and run game. Arguably best statistics out of any rookie.

 

I don't think there are a lot of people who would prefer Dak Prescott over Jared Goff now that the tables have turned.

Yep - there's no guarantee Goff or Wentz continue this progression either, nor Mahomes fwiw. Need more consistent seasons of performing at this level to gauge this effectively at all.

[GoBills808]

Lamar Jackson has 114 rushing attempts? Am I reading that right?

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Lamar Jackson has 114 rushing attempts? Am I reading that right?

Yes, he's tied with Alex Collins for most carries on the team

[transplantbillsfan]

Stats don't matter.

 

Allen is proving that.

 

I heard something the other day about Whaley being fired largely because the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley traded down and didn't take him.

 

Now, I understand everyone is arguing "we could have had Mahomes!!!"

 

But I just don't think Mahomes would have been Mahomes in Buffalo, just like I don't think Brady would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

 

Sheesh, just look at Jared Goff in your own chart as an example and look what's happened with a simple change of a Head Coach and acquiring a few weapons.

 

Comparing QBs via stats and trying to project their play based off that is fool's gold.

 

And I think I've taken a big turn there because of Allen, because when I watch him play, I see a QB who is a rookie phenom with almost no talent around him, save what Foster appears to be turning into.

 

Allen is going to be our QB for the next 15 years, give or take a few--I'm confident in that.

 

I'm more confident Allen will be our QB in 5 years than I am that McDermott will be our Head Coach in 5 years.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Stats don't matter.

 

Allen is proving that.

 

I heard something the other day about Whaley being fired largely because the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley traded down and didn't take him.

 

Now, I understand everyone is arguing "we could have had Mahomes!!!"

 

But I just don't think Mahomes would have been Mahomes in Buffalo, just like I don't think Brady would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

 

Sheesh, just look at Jared Goff in your own chart as an example and look what's happened with a simple change of a Head Coach and acquiring a few weapons.

 

Comparing QBs via stats and trying to project their play based off that is fool's gold.

 

And I think I've taken a big turn there because of Allen, because when I watch him play, I see a QB who is a rookie phenom with almost no talent around him, save what Foster appears to be turning into.

 

Allen is going to be our QB for the next 15 years, give or take a few--I'm confident in that.

 

I'm more confident Allen will be our QB in 5 years than I am that McDermott will be our Head Coach in 5 years.

 

I don't believe that for 3 reasons.

 

1)  The predraft belief that Whaley would be gone after the draft and he was only still there because he and his staff had done all the prep for it and he was the one with connections to other draftrooms.

 

2)  The widely held narrative that McDermottt was calling the shots.

and 

 

3)  That it is usually up a newly hired GM to take the shot at a new franchise QB not the lame duck GM that failed on his attempts.

Edited December 17, 2018 by JESSEFEFFER

[Haplo848]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So I have gone back as far as 2011, and entered all QB's rookie season stats that had at least 200 pass attempts. I haven't drawn any sweeping conclusions, but I do think it provides decent context for rookie stats and how they relate (or don't) to future success.

 

What do you guys think? See anything I'm missing?

 

I'll put out another update in 2 weeks when this year's class has wrapped up their season.

 

I mean, it's interesting?  But like people are saying, there's no context.  And how their stats were rookie season only seems to lightly have a correlation with how they end up.  The guys who are just bad tend to stay bad, while others grow with experience.  Stats alone are never going to tell you all you need to know.  Sometimes you just need to do the eye test to see if a guy has what it takes to eventually become special.

[BobChalmers]

27 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I don't believe that. For 3 reasons.

1)  The predraft belief that Whaley was gone after the draft and he was only there because he and his staff had done all the prep for it and he was the one with connections to other draftrooms.

2)  The widely held narrative that McDermottt was calling the shots.

and 

3)  That it is usually up a newly hired GM to take the shot at a new franchise QB not the lame duck GM that failed on his attempts.

 

Add to that list 4) It was McDermott with the well-documented relationship with Andy Reid - not Whaley.  That trade arose at least in part from their relationship.

[VW82]

The one thing we haven't seen yet from Allen is a kick ass passing performance where he racks up 350+ yards and 3+ passing TDs. He needs some cooperation from the receivers but I feel like we're not that far off. 

[corta765]

21 minutes ago, VW82 said:

The one thing we haven't seen yet from Allen is a kick ass passing performance where he racks up 350+ yards and 3+ passing TDs. He needs some cooperation from the receivers but I feel like we're not that far off. 

 

Agreed. With Tyrod I felt like him hitting 300 yds was kind of a true rarity. With Allen I keep looking thinking with a little more refinement and some better help he will have days he pushes near 400.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

IMO Allen is playing just like his scouting reports said he would out of Wyoming. 

 

The positive takeaway is his athleticism has translated to big plays throughout the game, he has not looked over matched outside of the Green Bay game.  

 

The skill level is low around Allen and so in the games the Bills have won, the Coaching Staff has clamped down on the number of throws they have asked Allen to make. 

 

Improve the skill set around Allen, and see if he can make the improvements in accuracy and pre-snap reads. 

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Stats don't matter.

 

Allen is proving that.

 

I heard something the other day about Whaley being fired largely because the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley traded down and didn't take him.

 

Now, I understand everyone is arguing "we could have had Mahomes!!!"

 

But I just don't think Mahomes would have been Mahomes in Buffalo, just like I don't think Brady would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

 

Sheesh, just look at Jared Goff in your own chart as an example and look what's happened with a simple change of a Head Coach and acquiring a few weapons.

 

Comparing QBs via stats and trying to project their play based off that is fool's gold.

 

And I think I've taken a big turn there because of Allen, because when I watch him play, I see a QB who is a rookie phenom with almost no talent around him, save what Foster appears to be turning into.

 

Allen is going to be our QB for the next 15 years, give or take a few--I'm confident in that.

 

I'm more confident Allen will be our QB in 5 years than I am that McDermott will be our Head Coach in 5 years.

 

Then why do the best Quarterbacks in the league have the best stats?

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So I have gone back as far as 2011, and entered all QB's rookie season stats that had at least 200 pass attempts. I haven't drawn any sweeping conclusions, but I do think it provides decent context for rookie stats and how they relate (or don't) to future success.

 

What do you guys think? See anything I'm missing?

 

I'll put out another update in 2 weeks when this year's class has wrapped up their season.

Thanks for the work in doing this. 

 

Looks like a pretty clear trend to me, guys who are competent starting QB's start showing it pretty early on. 

 

Newton, Watson, Luck, Wilson, Prescott, Dalton, Carr, the Browns look like they have hit on Mayfield.  

 

Only guys to get out of mid-pack look like Wentz, so it will be interesting to see Darnold. 

 

Goff got out of the cellar, and Mitchell Trubisky.

 

But I think its pretty clear that you want to stay top half on that list or the bust rate starts to climb. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Stats don't matter.

 

Allen is proving that.

 

I heard something the other day about Whaley being fired largely because the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley traded down and didn't take him.

 

Now, I understand everyone is arguing "we could have had Mahomes!!!"

 

But I just don't think Mahomes would have been Mahomes in Buffalo, just like I don't think Brady would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

 

Sheesh, just look at Jared Goff in your own chart as an example and look what's happened with a simple change of a Head Coach and acquiring a few weapons.

 

Comparing QBs via stats and trying to project their play based off that is fool's gold.

 

And I think I've taken a big turn there because of Allen, because when I watch him play, I see a QB who is a rookie phenom with almost no talent around him, save what Foster appears to be turning into.

 

Allen is going to be our QB for the next 15 years, give or take a few--I'm confident in that.

 

I'm more confident Allen will be our QB in 5 years than I am that McDermott will be our Head Coach in 5 years.

I couldn’t disagree more on the Mahomes/ Brady take. Great QBs ( or players for that matter) have portable greatness. It’s just in them. Would Mahomes be putting up exactly the same numbers in Buffalo ? No, but he would still be obviously a great player. He’ll still need some complementary pieces but the greater puzzle is solved. What was the hoodies’s record pre Brady? He was on the verge of getting fired in NE before Mo Lewis knocked Bledsoe into oblivion. Belichick is a great defensive mind, but he pulled out all his and tricks vs Mahomes and barely slowed him down. If Mahomes didn’t have jitters and miss a couple wide open throws for TDs in that game, the Chiefs win going away. He settled down in the second half and his only mistake was scoring too quickly. Anyway, truly great players transcend the situation. 

[WhyteDwarf]

EJ Manuel is looking pretty good on that chart.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I couldn’t disagree more on the Mahomes/ Brady take. Great QBs ( or players for that matter) have portable greatness. It’s just in them. Would Mahomes be putting up exactly the same numbers in Buffalo ? No, but he would still be obviously a great player. He’ll still need some complementary pieces but the greater puzzle is solved. What was the hoodies’s record pre Brady? He was on the verge of getting fired in NE before Mo Lewis knocked Bledsoe into oblivion. Belichick is a great defensive mind, but he pulled out all his and tricks vs Mahomes and barely slowed him down. If Mahomes didn’t have jitters and miss a couple wide open throws for TDs in that game, the Chiefs win going away. He settled down in the second half and his only mistake was scoring too quickly. Anyway, truly great players transcend the situation. 

 

I disagree, but there's absolutely no way to prove a hypothetical, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.