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2017 Bills vs 2018 Bills... not much difference actually


ShakAttack

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20 minutes ago, jletha said:

Luckily our GM has cleared out a bunch of cap space and secured some draft picks to bolster the roster after finding a QB with some promise. It was never about this year. Honestly it was never really about last year either, we significantly over achieved. I think the plan was always to cut dead weight, clear cap space, sign a QB in a good QB year which most GMs knew 2018 would be.

 

2019 is when we should see it all pay dividends. If we are not good next year then I expect McD and Beane's seat to get very hot.

 

Yes. I think we are on schedule. I'm certain that the Pegulas signed off on the plan and were expecting the first two years to be rocky. Getting to the playoffs in year 1 is just a big bonus.

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I.. respectfully disagree. Way more games that were virtually unwatchable this season compared to last.

 

The Vikings game was about as lucky as you can get the way we were playing the first half of the season. We couldn't get first downs for entire halfs. Ya just can't start the season in a hole like that. We didn't last year. We weren't great. And it's mostly the O-Line depletion as others have mentioned IMO, coupled with inexperienced quarterback play to start the season. We didn't have a chance this year.

 

If JA was starting all year at the level he's played post injury then I'd side with you. We look better this side of the half. But I'm not counting our Dolphins game as a close loss. That was a desperation miracle JA came up in a superb broken play to make it close. We started the season winning games we should win in control, and ended the same way. But we weren't looking at 3-7 through 10 games. Your season is judged by how quickly you are written out of the playoff race for me.

Edited by PetermanThrew5Picks
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1 hour ago, BobBelcher said:

Well, I just got kinda tired of hearing about how the 2018 Bills have taken a "huge step back" from 2017, but if you actually think about it, it's not necessarily true. Instead, I would say that neither team was that good, but we deserved last season; a little luck was long overdue...

Well done, great comparison!!

18 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...good assessment and I agree.......I'm probably way off (a KNOWN FACT), but I don't see McBeane as a "Big FA Splash" guy........I said it in another post and I wish I could remember what member responded (kudos), quoting McBeane as saying, "we set a value on FA's and that is it"......or something like that......

I see him as filling holes and keeping a eye on the guys he drafted like White to make sure he can pay them.

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44 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

 

You know, I used to be excited about the FA money as well until I noticed that a lot of teams have a lot of cap space and the free agents out there are not that special overall. So I’m not really sure how that will all pan out. It’s very likely we sit out the first wave again simply because this scenario may result in a lot of overspending on the top FAs at each position. But if we have a stellar draft and make the most of these 10 picks that would be huge in itself.  

 

Each team is required to spend up to a certain percentage of their cap, though. So the Bills will have to be fairly active in free agency.

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

The difference between last year to this year is we cannot run the ball......like AT ALL

 

That makes a difference in close games.

Completely agree with this statement.  Let's be real, I think Shady's days are numbered in Buffalo.  I think we can all agree that we need a legitimate #1 WR and really need to work on our O Line in the upcoming off season.  However, i'm wondering if we should target the best RB in this years draft class to help Josh Allen out.  I'm not sure how deep the RB class is this year or how truly good any of them are, but it would be nice to hit on a RB like Kamara or Gurley.

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Last year was very flukey Imo. The falcons game where we had a fumble recovery for a td (could've gone either way), the Colts game where we had 2 feet of snow and were about to lose the game on a 2 point conversion called back by a penalty, the Bengals making the miracle play on 4th down to send us to the playoffs. 

 

While last season was great, it was alot of circumstances that most likely won't happen again for us. If the bills wanna make the playoffs, they actually have to be good 

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7 hours ago, BobBelcher said:

 

Haushka, Deonte Thompson and Tre’davious White.  Those were our clutch players last season.  While there was definitely luck involved, those guys still had plays to make and they made them (unlike Clay)

 

Had to bring up Clay, didn't ya. Right when my food was settling. Just hearing that name brings stomach cramps.

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The luck they had last year was mostly about having a really easy schedule and the lucky fact that it was made even easier by hitting two of very few teams with winning records in the middle of long slumps, Atlanta and KC.

 

We are worse this year on offence.

 

A lot of it is the QB. Tyrod was simply better than what we have now. With any luck, Allen will improve enough next year so that won't be true anymore, but this year's QBs would all take a back seat to Tyrod if what you wanted was only to win a game. Thank goodness that's not all they wanted, that what they want is to develop towards a future where we can consistently compete with the best in the league. But beyond QB, losing Wood and Incognito drastically hurt the OL, opening holes on a team already packed with them.

 

And this year's running attack is considerably worse than last year's, though Allen's scrambles twist the stats enough to make things look better than they are.

 

McCoy 2018 4.0 YPA

McCoy 2017 3.3 YPA

 

We really are worse than we were last year. But that's how these things go in a rebuild. The question is how good we'll be next year.

 

9 hours ago, MJS said:

 

Each team is required to spend up to a certain percentage of their cap, though. So the Bills will have to be fairly active in free agency.

 

 

They'll be fairly active.

 

But teams are only required to spend 90% of their cap room .... over a four-year period. And they've spent well over 90% every one of the past three years. They could easily leave a bunch of money unspent this year, if they don't like what they see, and spend it over the next two to three years.

 

This year's FAs are fine in the areas you'd expect them to be buyers in ... low- to medium-priced guys who'll fill holes and aren't liabilities. This might be a year to make an exception and bring in one or two guys who're closer to the high end. But nobody should expect them to spend like a cowboy coming into town after a season on the range. It's not who they are.

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9 hours ago, billspro said:

Hard to argue. The only unit which took a big step back was the oline. We were much better at running the ball last year. I think Allen has completely outplayed Tyrod though so that may be a wash.

TT 8-6 as a starter, 14 TD, 4 INT, and 62.6 % comp, 186 YPG.  Add 427 Yards rushing and 4 rush TD.

Allen 3-5 as a starter, 5 TD 9 INT 52.4% comp. 158 YPG.  Add 490 yards, and 5 Rush TD.

 

Can you define completely outplayed?  There is no way other than having a racial bias can you say Allen is playing better than TT did last year.  

Does Allen have move upside and potential than TT.  No argument from me.  I love the kid and wanted to draft him over any other QB(posted multiple times pre-draft).  He looks like he will be far greater than TT ever was if he continues to develop.  But he is a rookie making rookie mistakes.  With TT not turning the ball over, this team probably has two maybe three more wins and is right in the playoff hunt.  With the non-black QBs on the 2018 team they were out of the playoff race before Halloween.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dadonkadonk said:

TT 8-6 as a starter, 14 TD, 4 INT, and 62.6 % comp, 186 YPG.  Add 427 Yards rushing and 4 rush TD.

Allen 3-5 as a starter, 5 TD 9 INT 52.4% comp. 158 YPG.  Add 490 yards, and 5 Rush TD.

 

Can you define completely outplayed?  There is no way other than having a racial bias can you say Allen is playing better than TT did last year.  

Does Allen have move upside and potential than TT.  No argument from me.  I love the kid and wanted to draft him over any other QB(posted multiple times pre-draft).  He looks like he will be far greater than TT ever was if he continues to develop.  But he is a rookie making rookie mistakes.  With TT not turning the ball over, this team probably has two maybe three more wins and is right in the playoff hunt.  With the non-black QBs on the 2018 team they were out of the playoff race before Halloween.  

 

 

They're impossible to compare as Taylor had a much better running game behind him.  Tyrod didn't make costly mistakes, but there have been throws Allen's made to extend drives that Tyrod would never make.  The last two games may not have been close if Tyrod started instead of Allen with the plethora of special team mistakes and penalties.  As far as the games Allen started, the only game I could see Tyrod winning was the Texans game that Allen got injured in. 

 

BTW, it's still mind boggling to me that Josh Allen rushed for more yards and TD's than Tyrod despite starting six less games.

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1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

They're impossible to compare as Taylor had a much better running game behind him.  Tyrod didn't make costly mistakes, but there have been throws Allen's made to extend drives that Tyrod would never make.  The last two games may not have been close if Tyrod started instead of Allen with the plethora of special team mistakes and penalties.  As far as the games Allen started, the only game I could see Tyrod winning was the Texans game that Allen got injured in. 

 

BTW, it's still mind boggling to me that Josh Allen rushed for more yards and TD's than Tyrod despite starting six less games.

 

 

You can still compare them. No two QBs will be in equal situations. Yes, Tyrod had a better running game and that was an advantage. Having a better defense is also an advantage, and last year's defense was pretty good but this year's is a lot better.

 

Tyrod was simply much more knowing as far as defenses and schemes and so on. He was the QB you'd want out there if your mortgage was on the line for a win that game.

 

You're right about Tyrod's limitations. I was no fan and have been saying he wasn't a franchise QB since lateish in Tyrod's first year after his performance took a drop and stabilized at almost exactly the level he then maintained for the rest of his time here. But limiting turnovers is huge, and especially so with a good defense.

 

Allen's four times more likely to throw an INT (INT percentage) and Tyrod is one-and-a-half times more likely to throw a TD (TD percentage). 52.4% completions vs. 62.8% tells a major story as well.

 

 

 

I'm thrilled they took a first round QB, but Allen is going to take time.

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4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You can still compare them. No two QBs will be in equal situations. Yes, Tyrod had a better running game and that was an advantage. Having a better defense is also an advantage, and last year's defense was pretty good but this year's is a lot better.

 

Tyrod was simply much more knowing as far as defenses and schemes and so on. He was the QB you'd want out there if your mortgage was on the line for a win that game.

 

You're right about Tyrod's limitations. I was no fan and have been saying he wasn't a franchise QB since lateish in Tyrod's first year after his performance took a drop and stabilized at almost exactly the level he then maintained for the rest of his time here. But limiting turnovers is huge, and especially so with a good defense.

 

Allen's four times more likely to throw an INT and Tyrod is one-and-a-half times more likely to throw a TD. 52.4% completions vs. 62.8% tells a major story as well.

 

 

 

I'm thrilled they took a first round QB, but Allen is going to take time.

Alright.  Even if you think you can compare the two the stats still don't tell the whole story because Tyrod struggled when we were forced to abandon our running game due to lack of production and/or being behind in the 2nd half.  The Bills were 2-14 (including the Jags playoff game) when Taylor had to throw the ball more than 30 times as he was forced to pass.  In a small sample size, Allen is 3-1 when throwing the ball less than 30 times and 0-4 when throwing more than 30 times.  If Clay catches the touchdown and our defense doesn't allow a rookie QB to score two TD's in the 4th quarter on them Allen would be 2-2 when throwing 30 plus times.  I'm just not buying that we'd have a few more wins with Tyrod as our quarterback this year because our RB's and run blocking have struggled mightily this year.

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What are you trying to prove with the argument that Tyrod was 2-14 and Josh 0-4 when they had to throw a lot. That they both had the same problem? You throw more when you're behind. Nearly all teams except those few that manage with very little running will have that problem. When you're ahead, you run more to hold the lead.

 

A lot of the times we've been behind this year, a lot of the reason has been INTs and horrible field position. Allen's a rookie, making rookie mistakes, where Tyrod didn't often have many turnovers. If Tyrod had been our QB this year we wouldn't have been as much behind as we often were.

 

Part of the reason Clay didn't catch the ball was that it was a bad pass from Allen.

 

And please with the what-ifs. Sure you can justify one of Allen's losses as not his fault. Think anyone couldn't go back and do the same for some of Tyrod's games?

 

Again, I'm not attacking Allen or saying I want Tyrod back. I wanted him gone far before most did. But yeah, he's the guy you want if you want the best chance to win a game this year if your choices are only Tyrod and Josh.

 

 

Good to talk to you, Doc.

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15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

What are you trying to prove with the argument that Tyrod was 2-14 and Josh 0-4 when they had to throw a lot. That they both had the same problem? You throw more when you're behind. Nearly all teams except those few that manage with very little running will have that problem. When you're ahead, you run more to hold the lead.

 

A lot of the times we've been behind this year, a lot of the reason has been INTs and horrible field position. Allen's a rookie, making rookie mistakes, where Tyrod didn't often have many turnovers. If Tyrod had been our QB this year we wouldn't have been as much behind as we often were.

 

Part of the reason Clay didn't catch the ball was that it was a bad pass from Allen.

 

And please with the what-ifs. Sure you can justify one of Allen's losses as not his fault. Think anyone couldn't go back and do the same for some of Tyrod's games?

 

Again, I'm not attacking Allen or saying I want Tyrod back. I wanted him gone far before most did. But yeah, he's the guy you want if you want the best chance to win a game this year if your choices are only Tyrod and Josh.

 

 

Good to talk to you, Doc.

I guess it's a pointless argument and I think just saying we'd have a better record with Tyrod as QB is too easy of an assumption because we never saw Tyrod excel when our running game was horrible.  Hell, Matt Barkley won us a game when McCoy looked like his old self and our defense dominated.

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14 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

The difference between last year to this year is we cannot run the ball......like AT ALL

 

That makes a difference in close games.

 

Yes, Richie and wood blocking the run game and tyrod never turning the ball over are big differences between 9-7 and this year. 

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15 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Yeah I really feel like what Allen is doing is not sustainable over the long term...he took quite a beating against the jets....

 

We pay guys millions of dollars to just tote the rock.....and they cant do it be it age or lack of run blocking.

 

The problem is, Allen is taking his biggest hits when in the pocket.

On his runs, he's mostly getting out of bounds or sliding.

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19 hours ago, BobBelcher said:

So what's the point in all of this?

 

Well, I just got kinda tired of hearing about how the 2018 Bills have taken a "huge step back" from 2017, but if you actually think about it, it's not necessarily true. Instead, I would say that neither team was that good, but we deserved last season; a little luck was long overdue...

 

Here is some data that may or may not factor into your well stated synopsis, do with them as you see fit. 

 

There is one thing, I’d call it a defining thing, that has IMO defined McD’s ability to win games, or conversely not.  We’ll get to that in a moment.  But first some data to go along with your well written synopsis, and keeping in mind that we’re only 13 games into this season, although most of the below are per-game averages. 

 

Offense:

Yards-per-Game have dropped by about 10 ypg

Passing Yards-per-Game are down by about that same 10 ypg

Rushing Yards-per-Game are about the same, but primarily due to Allen

Scoring is down by 3.4 Points-per-Game

On Allen’s starts it’s down by about 2 Points-per-Game

Compl. % is down by about 6, with Allen down by about 8

Yards-per-Attempt are down by about half-a-yard, w/ or w/o Allen

Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt are down from 6.2 to 4.2 for the team

Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt are down from 6.9 to 5.0 from Taylor to Allen

Passing TDs are down from 16 (14 from Taylor, about 1/start) to 8 (5 from Allen, about .6/start) with three games remaining

INTs are up from 10 (4 by Taylor, about .25/game) to 20 (9 by Allen, over 1/game) with three games remaining

Team sacks allowed are about the same rate, about 3/game

Allen’s sack rate is 1 every 9.7 attempts, Taylor’s was 1 every 10.1, so about the same

Team QB Rating has dropped by well over 20 points

The Rating from Taylor to Allen has dropped from 89.2 to 62.8, a difference of 26.4

Yards lost on sacks are greater by 9 this season so far

Last season we finished ranked 6th in rushing, this season so far we’re ranked 9th

Yards-per-Carry has gone from 4.1 (ranked 14th last season) to 4.3 (ranked 17th this season)

Without Allen’s rushing contributions the YPC drops by approximately a half-a-yard and is worse w/ or w/o Taylor’s contributions last season

 

 

Defense: 

 

Yards-per-Game has improved by about 65

Passing Yards-per-Game allowed has improved by about 45

Rushing  Yards-per-Game allowed has improved by about 20

Points-Allowed has gotten worse by 2.4 Points/Game

Compl. % allowed is better by less than 1%

Yards-per-Attempt allowed is better from 6.7 to 6.4

QB Rating allowed has gotten worse by over 6

Sacks have increased from 27 to 31 with three games remaining

Passing TDs allowed have jumped from 14 to 19 with three games remaining

INTs have dropped from 18 to 12 with three games remaining

 

The most notable thing, at least to me, that sticks out in those numbers, is the disparity between the improvement in the yardage game defensively contrasted with the regression in the Points-Allowed game. 

 

There’s one related thing that I’ve seen only one media person pick up on, and not even a regional media guy, the big difference between this season and last, which was noticeable last season, and what defines the McD era’s ability to win games, is TURNOVERS.

 

When the team finishes with a positive TO margin, they have a better than an 85% chance of winning.  (12 of 14) 

 

When the team finishes with a neutral (0) or negative TO margin, the chances of winning are almost nothing, less than 7%.  (1 of 16)

 

So when predicting Bills games, "the Bills will win if _________," the answer is all but catergorically if they finish with a positive TO margin.  

 

The four games that we won this year have had TO margins of +3, +2, +2, and +2. 

 

We’ve lost two games that we had positive TO margins in, both last season. 

 

We’ve won only one game that we had a negative TO margin in, which was the Indianapolis game in the snow last season. 

 

In short, without a positive TO margin they can’t seem to win.  That’s not the sign of a good team. 

 

More on this in another thread when I have time, but last season Taylor had 4 INTs and 4 Fumbles (0 recovered) for 8 TOs in 14 starts.  That’s a rate of less than .6 TO/game.

 

Allen has 9 INTs and 7 Fumbles (2 recovered) for 14 TOs in 8 starts.  That’s a rate of 2 INTs/FUMs per game and a TO rate of 1.75/game, which is nearly what Kizer had last season in Cleveland. 

 

FWIW, Cleveland outplayed their opponents last season in terms of yards-gained, yards-held-to, 1st-downs both allowed and gotten, etc., at a rate of about 50% better than we did.  Yet they were 0-16 and we were 9-7. 

 

The difference as I’ve mentioned before here, is the TOs. 

 

As I’ve been harping on, while pissing into the winds of current populism, is that if Allen is ever going to achieve the status of “franchise QB” for us, Allen’s short-medium passing game is going to have to make enormous strides in improvement.  That is A, directly related to reading defenses, and B, something that he struggled heavily with at Wyoming.  He was horrific in that regard against the best defenses that he played, aka, against the only players defensively that were likely to make the NFL. 

 

Everything’s been about Allen’s “strong arm,” and recently about his rushing, which if it doesn’t get him seriously injured first is a sore indictment of the offense’s rushing game. 

 

But here’s the thing, a “strong-arm” is all but irrelevant in the Red Zone where Allen is horrible.  He’s horrible in general, and he’s horrible against all of his draft peers in the Red Zone. 

 

Here is the data: 

 

In the Red Zone according to ESPN QB splits by player as of week 14 …

 

Mayfield is 24 of 39 (61.5%) for 207 Yards, 5.3 YPA, 15 TDs, and 2 sacks with a rating of 115.1 and a TD% of 38.5% via his passing. 

 

Darnold is 16 of 27 (59.3%) for 137 Yards, 5.1 YPA, 5 TDs, 2 sacks with a rating of 96.8 and a TD% of 18.5% via his passing. 

 

Rosen is 14 of 32 (43.8%) for 116 Yards, 3.6 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 sacks with a rating of 93.2 and a TD% of 18.8% via his passing. 

 

Lamar Jackson (who only has a few starts) is 7 of 14 (50%) for 51 yards, 3.6 YPA, 3 TDs, and 2 sacks with a rating of 98.5 and a TD% of 21.4% via his passing. 

 

Allen is 8 of 19 (42.1%) for 43 Yards, 2.3 YPA, 2 TDs, 3 sacks, 84.8 rating and a TD% of 10.5% via his passing, which has no explanation, it’s abysmal,  rookie or not.  (Fact) 

 

I won’t even run the sack rates, but suffice to say that it’s absurdly higher than all but Jackson’s and he’s the only QB for which it exceeds his TD%. 

 

And since we're comparing seasons, 2017 to 2018, here are Taylor's Red Zone stats from last season; 

 

Taylor was 30 of 58 (51.7%) for 166 Yards, 2.9 YPA, 11 TDs, 2 Sacks, an 82.9 rating and a TD% of 19% via his passing.  

 

In short, while it’s grand that Allen has replaced McCoy in the rushing department, the fact of the matter is that if he’s going to be “the one,” our new “franchise QB,” he’s going to have to do it via his passing game which needs a ton of work.  It’s also not going to involve the deep-game which is incredibly overrated, it’s going to have to involve his short-medium game which right now is not good excuses and “reasons” aside,  such as dropped passes where the Bills are actually ranked above-average contrary to popular belief, and as if other teams featuring the above mentioned QBs don’t have them as well.  In fact, all four of the teams for the above-mentioned QB rank worse in dropped passes than we do. 

 

Same for time-in-the-pocket, I saw a stat the other day that placed Allen’s time in the pocket as above average.  Either way, and that aside, his short-medium, which reflect in the Red Zone, are going to have to take a MASSIVE leap in order for him to boost his passing game to the levels of franchise QB.  None of the above QBs besides Mayfield, IMO, are destined for stardom.  Allen’s the worst of all 5 in the short-medium game, so unless he’s going to run his way to franchise status, …

 

As to McD, if his teams cannot learn to start winning games while not always possessing a positive TO margin, usually a significant one, then I don’t see him lasting long either.  Turnovers is absolutely no basis for sustainable success.  It’s the biggest difference from last season to this one, +9 last season, -8 this season.  Cleveland was -28 last season and +9 this season.  The primary difference from last season to this one for them (Mayfield’s 1.4 TO/game vs. Kizer’s 2 TO/game), the primary difference for us from last season to this one (Taylor’s .6 TO/game vs. Allen’s 1.8 TO/game).  Factor in Mayfield’s Red Zone Performance over Kizer’s which was awful too but still notably better than Allen’s, and the picture becomes even more clear, or should. 

 

Interestingly, Kizer’s draft grade is almost identical to Allen’s as was his draft profile and emphasis on his “strong arm.”  In fact, here’s the “Strengths” from NFL.com;

 

STRENGTHS

Big quarterback with a big arm. Can make all of the throws. Has step and crank power to drive throws into the seams. Has the arm talent and willingness to challenge safeties on both intermediate and deep throws. Looks the part with thick frame to withstand NFL punishment. Over the top delivery creates tight spirals. Has powerful grip allowing for aggressive pump fakes to move defense around. When he's comfortable, will tie feet with his eyes as he scans the field. Adequate drive accuracy. If he feels a completion is imminent, he'll stand in and take a punishing shot. Strong, authoritative runner with the speed to hit a big play with his feet. Two-way threat in the red zone. Posted 18 rushing touchdowns over last two seasons.

 

Who does that sound like apart from "tying feet with his eyes as he scans the field"?  

 

As to Allen, the cliché’d overuse of his collegiate completion % aside, here are some of his draft concerns that have not even become close to being overcome that will absolutely have to be overcome if he’s going to be the franchise QB that everyone seems to be projecting him as right now:

 

·        Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet

·        May have too much hero in his blood

·        Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it

·        Takes too many chances with low percentage throws

·        Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball (as is evident by his TOs) 

·        Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short

·        Field-reading is spotty

·        Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop

·        Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing

·        Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused

·        Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers

 

Frankly, that “hero” is likely to end a season if not his career if he’s not more careful.  Given his way below-average stats in the short-medium and Red Zone games, there really isn’t much in his defense at the moment regarding his passing, despite the current narratives.  Granted, he’s exciting to watch, in fact, I’d say the only reason worth watching games this season, but that doesn’t mitigate the facts in the matter.  

Edited by TaskersGhost
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