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BobBelcher

2017 Bills vs 2018 Bills... not much difference actually

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Going to try and make this quick because I'm on my limited time lunch break at work, but just something I find to be interesting. 

 

I have always felt that we have had better teams in recent years than the 2017 Bills team that snapped the playoff drought, but the difference was that the 2017 Bills were FINALLY getting the lucky breaks that are the difference between wins and losses.

 

If you look at last year's schedule, the Bills basically had 5 games that went down to the wire and were 4-1 in those games.

 

Similarly, we've had 5 games that have gone down to the wire so far this year, and are 2-3 in those games.

 

Turn those 3 losses into wins and the Bills are suddenly 7-6... just like they were at this point last year.

 

And between how the defense completed dominated Deshaun Watson and Houston and had a late lead only to have Peterman literally throw the game away,  how Clay dropped the game winning TD against Miami and how we completely blew it against the Jets last week, we probably SHOULD have those 3 wins.

 

In terms of being blown out, last year we lost FIVE games by 13 or more.

 

This year, we have also lost 5 games by 13 or more so far and I realize the season isn't over but out of the Lions, Pats and Dolphins, I would highly doubt 2 of those teams beat us by 13+ at home and if the Pats do it, no surprise, but 6 losses by 13+ is not a heck of a lot different from 5.

 

As far as blowing out our opponent, last year we only beat the Raiders by 13+. This year, we've actually done it twice (Vikings and Jets). Although I will say the season opener against the Jets and season finale against Miami may as well have been blowouts.

 

Simply put, the 2017 Buffalo Bills was our luckiest Bills team in years. We won several games that Bills teams usually just do not win. The only tough break we had was the Zay Jones drop against Carolina, but other than that, any game that went down to the wire turned out in our favor.

 

So what's the point in all of this?

 

Well, I just got kinda tired of hearing about how the 2018 Bills have taken a "huge step back" from 2017, but if you actually think about it, it's not necessarily true. Instead, I would say that neither team was that good, but we deserved last season; a little luck was long overdue...

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It is frustrating though... Houston, Dolphins, Jets games IMO should have been wins. Would be exciting if we got those to see Josh in the playoff hunt and the young team dealing with that.

I guess the consolation is because we lost those we dont have to watch KB power walk around the field anymore

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Hard to argue. The only unit which took a big step back was the oline. We were much better at running the ball last year. I think Allen has completely outplayed Tyrod though so that may be a wash.

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11 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

Going to try and make this quick because I'm on my limited time lunch break at work, but just something I find to be interesting. 

 

I have always felt that we have had better teams in recent years than the 2017 Bills team that snapped the playoff drought, but the difference was that the 2017 Bills were FINALLY getting the lucky breaks that are the difference between wins and losses.

 

If you look at last year's schedule, the Bills basically had 5 games that went down to the wire and were 4-1 in those games.

 

Similarly, we've had 5 games that have gone down to the wire so far this year, and are 2-3 in those games.

 

Turn those 3 losses into wins and the Bills are suddenly 7-6... just like they were at this point last year.

 

And between how the defense completed dominated Deshaun Watson and Houston and had a late lead only to have Peterman literally throw the game away,  how Clay dropped the game winning TD against Miami and how we completely blew it against the Jets last week, we probably SHOULD have those 3 wins.

 

In terms of being blown out, last year we lost FIVE games by 13 or more.

 

This year, we have also lost 5 games by 13 or more so far and I realize the season isn't over but out of the Lions, Pats and Dolphins, I would highly doubt 2 of those teams beat us by 13+ at home and if the Pats do it, no surprise, but 6 losses by 13+ is not a heck of a lot different from 5.

 

As far as blowing out our opponent, last year we only beat the Raiders by 13+. This year, we've actually done it twice (Vikings and Jets). Although I will say the season opener against the Jets and season finale against Miami may as well have been blowouts.

 

Simply put, the 2017 Buffalo Bills was our luckiest Bills team in years. We won several games that Bills teams usually just do not win. The only tough break we had was the Zay Jones drop against Carolina, but other than that, any game that went down to the wire turned out in our favor.

 

So what's the point in all of this?

 

Well, I just got kinda tired of hearing about how the 2018 Bills have taken a "huge step back" from 2017, but if you actually think about it, it's not necessarily true. Instead, I would say that neither team was that good, but we deserved last season; a little luck was long overdue...

The difference between last year to this year is we cannot run the ball......like AT ALL

 

That makes a difference in close games.

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AFC was a trash basket last year and Andy Dalton got lucky.. we won some games against other bad teams.  You are right, this year's team isn't that much different.  Both are/were not very good.

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

The difference between last year to this year is we cannot run the ball......like AT ALL

 

That makes a difference in close games.

 

Unless you count Allen I guess ;)

 

but there is is no doubt the oline is much worse.

 

without checking the numbers, I would imagine our defense has improved a bit though (but may be creating less turnovers)

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Just now, BobBelcher said:

 

Unless you count Allen I guess ;)

 

but there is is no doubt the oline is much worse.

 

without checking the numbers, I would imagine our defense has improved a bit though (but may be creating less turnovers)

Yeah I really feel like what Allen is doing is not sustainable over the long term...he took quite a beating against the jets....

 

We pay guys millions of dollars to just tote the rock.....and they cant do it be it age or lack of run blocking.

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7 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

AFC was a trash basket last year and Andy Dalton got lucky.. we won some games against other bad teams.  You are right, this year's team isn't that much different.  Both are/were not very good.

 

Yes definitely fitting how Andy Dalton got us into the playoffs on a miracle in a season where the Bills won multiple games that felt like miracles considering we had always been losing those types of games before (and not getting the calls like the one we got in the snow game when the Colts actually had the game won until a penalty called it back)

Edited by BobBelcher

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Just now, John from Riverside said:

Yeah I really feel like what Allen is doing is not sustainable over the long term...he took quite a beating against the jets....

 

We pay guys millions of dollars to just tote the rock.....and they cant do it be it age or lack of run blocking.

 

It’s definitely not sustainable. Saying that he has done a good job sliding and I don’t think he will have to run as much with an NFL oline. I saw a stat that he was pressured on 50% of throws and took 22 hits against the Jets. It’s amazing that he can even move the ball with the garbage around him. Nice to see that we have a QB that can elevate a unit though.

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I've always said in the NFL, the difference between 6-10 or 10-6 is a few lucky bounces. I think every team has 4 games each season that could swing either way. The good teams win most of them. +4 or -4 is up for grabs in the win column.

 

Most teams fall into this category and end up with 6-10 wins. 1 or 2 of these teams will make the playoffs every year.  Then there are a few great teams and a few really bad ones. Last year we had the breaks as mentioned by the OP, this year we don't. 

The biggest difference between last year and this year is the core group moving forward. Last years team was not built to be a consistent contender. This year the blueprint for that core is in place. Next year we will know if the plan worked. If it does the +4 -4 will move up a few wins. And depending on the lucky bounces the Bills will end up with a record in the range of 8-8 to 12-4.

 

This is the consistent playoff team we want and from here you hope to have all the pieces in place to raise that one more level. This is the level the Patriots have played at for years.  It's the 10-6 to 14-2 team that even if the bounces even out they end up with 12 wins and if they don't, they are still in the hunt.

Edited by BillsRdue
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9 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Amazing thread. I have quit my job to follow this thread full time.

 

Well if something I wrote on a message board could entertain and engage a person enough to quit their job then gosh dang it I am putting MY notice in right now cause I am in the wrong business

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Hauschka last year won us two on his own, if he kicked lights out in the past two games we would have won them both (that includes kickoffs which should be touchbacks)

 

That right there is your difference.

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3 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Hauschka last year won us two on his own, if he kicked lights out in the past two games we would have won them both (that includes kickoffs which should be touchbacks)

 

That right there is your difference.

 

Haushka, Deonte Thompson and Tre’davious White.  Those were our clutch players last season.  While there was definitely luck involved, those guys still had plays to make and they made them (unlike Clay)

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Precisely. 2017 Bills way overachieved. It was a pleasant surprise. 2018 Bills are performing about where they should.

 

Bottom line is this team needs more talent. They needed it last year too, but won without it somehow.

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1 minute ago, MJS said:

Precisely. 2017 Bills way overachieved. It was a pleasant surprise. 2018 Bills are performing about where they should.

 

Bottom line is this team needs more talent. They needed it last year too, but won without it somehow.

Luckily our GM has cleared out a bunch of cap space and secured some draft picks to bolster the roster after finding a QB with some promise. It was never about this year. Honestly it was never really about last year either, we significantly over achieved. I think the plan was always to cut dead weight, clear cap space, sign a QB in a good QB year which most GMs knew 2018 would be.

 

2019 is when we should see it all pay dividends. If we are not good next year then I expect McD and Beane's seat to get very hot.

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17 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

It is frustrating though... Houston, Dolphins, Jets games IMO should have been wins. Would be exciting if we got those to see Josh in the playoff hunt and the young team dealing with that.

I guess the consolation is because we lost those we dont have to watch KB power walk around the field anymore

 

...similar to last year....we won some games that I never thought we could and stubbed our toe in others, miraculously leading to 9-7 along with the Immaculate DaltonBall...with 2018 being cap cleanup, limitations, putting the garbage "at the curb", and some whiffs in personnel signings, we just haven't had the horsepower to close some out.......realistically the expectation in a largely transitional year IMO....BUT...the stage is set in 2019 with 10 picks and FA $$$ to make a substantial difference...

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...similar to last year....we won some games that I never thought we could and stubbed our towe in others, miraculously leading to 9-7 along with the Immaculate DaltonBall...with 2018 being cap cleanup, limitations, putting the garbage "at the curb", and some whiffs in personnel signings, we just haven't had the horsepower to close some out.......realistically the expectation in a largely transitional year IMO....BUT...the stage is set in 2019 with 10 picks and FA $$$ to make a substantial difference...

 

You know, I used to be excited about the FA money as well until I noticed that a lot of teams have a lot of cap space and the free agents out there are not that special overall. So I’m not really sure how that will all pan out. It’s very likely we sit out the first wave again simply because this scenario may result in a lot of overspending on the top FAs at each position. But if we have a stellar draft and make the most of these 10 picks that would be huge in itself.  

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1 minute ago, BobBelcher said:

 

You know, I used to be excited about the FA money as well until I noticed that a lot of teams have a lot of cap space and the free agents out there are not that special overall. So I’m not really sure how that will all pan out. It’s very likely we sit out the first wave again simply because this scenario may result in a lot of overspending on the top FAs at each position. But if we have a stellar draft and make the most of these 10 picks that would be huge in itself.  

 

...good assessment and I agree.......I'm probably way off (a KNOWN FACT), but I don't see McBeane as a "Big FA Splash" guy........I said it in another post and I wish I could remember what member responded (kudos), quoting McBeane as saying, "we set a value on FA's and that is it"......or something like that......

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20 minutes ago, jletha said:

Luckily our GM has cleared out a bunch of cap space and secured some draft picks to bolster the roster after finding a QB with some promise. It was never about this year. Honestly it was never really about last year either, we significantly over achieved. I think the plan was always to cut dead weight, clear cap space, sign a QB in a good QB year which most GMs knew 2018 would be.

 

2019 is when we should see it all pay dividends. If we are not good next year then I expect McD and Beane's seat to get very hot.

 

Yes. I think we are on schedule. I'm certain that the Pegulas signed off on the plan and were expecting the first two years to be rocky. Getting to the playoffs in year 1 is just a big bonus.

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Were you late getting back to work? Because that wasn't exactly quick.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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I.. respectfully disagree. Way more games that were virtually unwatchable this season compared to last.

 

The Vikings game was about as lucky as you can get the way we were playing the first half of the season. We couldn't get first downs for entire halfs. Ya just can't start the season in a hole like that. We didn't last year. We weren't great. And it's mostly the O-Line depletion as others have mentioned IMO, coupled with inexperienced quarterback play to start the season. We didn't have a chance this year.

 

If JA was starting all year at the level he's played post injury then I'd side with you. We look better this side of the half. But I'm not counting our Dolphins game as a close loss. That was a desperation miracle JA came up in a superb broken play to make it close. We started the season winning games we should win in control, and ended the same way. But we weren't looking at 3-7 through 10 games. Your season is judged by how quickly you are written out of the playoff race for me.

Edited by PetermanThrew5Picks
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1 hour ago, BobBelcher said:

Well, I just got kinda tired of hearing about how the 2018 Bills have taken a "huge step back" from 2017, but if you actually think about it, it's not necessarily true. Instead, I would say that neither team was that good, but we deserved last season; a little luck was long overdue...

Well done, great comparison!!

18 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...good assessment and I agree.......I'm probably way off (a KNOWN FACT), but I don't see McBeane as a "Big FA Splash" guy........I said it in another post and I wish I could remember what member responded (kudos), quoting McBeane as saying, "we set a value on FA's and that is it"......or something like that......

I see him as filling holes and keeping a eye on the guys he drafted like White to make sure he can pay them.

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44 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

 

You know, I used to be excited about the FA money as well until I noticed that a lot of teams have a lot of cap space and the free agents out there are not that special overall. So I’m not really sure how that will all pan out. It’s very likely we sit out the first wave again simply because this scenario may result in a lot of overspending on the top FAs at each position. But if we have a stellar draft and make the most of these 10 picks that would be huge in itself.  

 

Each team is required to spend up to a certain percentage of their cap, though. So the Bills will have to be fairly active in free agency.

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