Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[Bray Wyatt]

21 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Jacksonville has the most drops in the league with 28. 

 

We have 15 drops in 406 pass attempts, which is 3.7%. Jacksonville is up at 6%. 

 

I can't find drops by game, so maybe Allen has seen his receivers drop more passes than our other QBs, but I'm not sure. 

 

 

Right from his twitter

[oldmanfan]

24 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. What he's saying doesn't make any sense.

 

You can't argue that it was just a decision making issue, because if it was, Allen has no business being on the field if he's intentionally trying to throw the ball to the other team, which appears to be what is being argued in his defence. 

No it's not.  I agree I am not in Allen's head, but I think he saw a play to make, threw it where he wanted, but had no business throwing it there.

 

The more illustrative would be the pick against the Fish where He tried to hit Benjamin but the DB undercut the route.  It was not in any way inaccurate; he threw it right where he wanted to throw the ball.  If the route isn't read by the DB the ball is right on target.  But it was a bad read, a bad decision.

 

I bring this difference up because you and others keep harping on his completion percentage as being akin to his accuracy, and they are not the same thing.

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

 

1. Fitzgerald 

2. Bryant 

3. Garcon 

3. Kittle 

4. Cook

5. Goodwin

6. Foster

7. Roberts

8. Zay 

9. Clay 

 

?? 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is good at throwing the ball hard. 

 

It's the rest of the throws he makes that are less reliable at finding their target in the right spot. 

 

I fully agree that our pass catchers aren't good, but they've been better lately. Once we got rid of Benjamin, Pryor and Holmes I think they've been a bit more productive. Foster can play, Jones is decent in the slot and McKenzie has been a spark plug in the offense. They're not good, but they do get open pretty reliably, albeit mostly against zone coverage. 

 

We need better players and Allen needs to figure out how to consistently throw with touch. Those are the keys to next season. 

And I do agree he needs to improve.  Why don't you just agree he's a rookie and has shown some pretty good work and development?

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

 

Right from his twitter

And PFF has his drop rate at 7%...

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That throw to Zay Jones in the second half against the Jets was simply thrown too hard. It may have looked like an easy catch because it hit him in the chest, but that ball was as hard as I've seen a ball throw in some time, and it arrived right after Jones turned around. It wasn't an easy catch at all

 

This is nuts.

 

 

And for the record this is a Football Outsiders writer who is not a fan of Josh Allen at all. That should be a catch 99% of the time. There is no arguing that this is a bad pass. It hits him right in the chest before the defender can impact the play.

 

 

I don't know why Bills fans have more trouble giving him credit than outsiders that didn't even like the pick.

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And I do agree he needs to improve.  Why don't you just agree he's a rookie and has shown some pretty good work and development?

 

Because he literally has the worst passing stats in the league.

 

The list of rookie 1st round picks from the past 20 years who played as rookies with a QB Rating in the 60s who went onto become franchise QBs is extremely short. 

 

As things stand, the list is Jared Goff, Matt Stafford (who has never really been very good) and Alex Smith. 

 

You're expecting something to happen that rarely happens. I hope it does, I just understand how truly difficult it is to find a good QB. 

12 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

 

Right from his twitter

 

I saw that. 

 

Not sure how that math adds up though. The Bills have 15 drops this season, and Allen has 206 passes. That means every single drop this team has had is with him at QB, which seems odd.

 

Seems practically impossible that our receivers didn't drop one of the other 200 passes thrown by our QBs this year. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[John from Riverside]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is nuts.

 

 

And for the record this is a Football Outsiders writer who is not a fan of Josh Allen at all. That should be a catch 99% of the time. There is no arguing that this is a bad pass. It hits him right in the chest before the defender can impact the play.

 

 

I don't know why Bills fans have more trouble giving him credit than outsiders that didn't even like the pick.

Still waiting for Ledlard to climb on board

14 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

1. Fitzgerald 

2. Bryant 

3. Garcon 

3. Kittle 

4. Cook

5. Goodwin

6. Foster

7. Roberts

8. Zay 

9. Clay 

 

?? 

It is not often that Teddy and I agree......but when we do it is unanimous

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is nuts.

 

 

And for the record this is a Football Outsiders writer who is not a fan of Josh Allen at all. That should be a catch 99% of the time. There is no arguing that this is a bad pass. It hits him right in the chest before the defender can impact the play.

 

 

I don't know why Bills fans have more trouble giving him credit than outsiders that didn't even like the pick.

 

Because Bills fans are, by and large a stiff-necked people.

 

[thebandit27]

50 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It doesn't happen more frequently.

 

The Bills pass catchers have dropped 15 passes all season, and the NFL average is like 13. 

 

You make it sound like our guys are dropping 4-5 passes a game. That's obviously not even remotely true. 

 

The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in percentage of passes dropped...or at least they did as recently as October:

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/Cleveland-Browns-most-dropped-passes--123157562/

 

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Because Bills fans are, by and large a stiff-necked people.

 

I think they just dont like the big let down that comes with a player dissapointing myself.

 

but I think Josh Allen is special....he just needs some help

[thebandit27]

36 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

He needs to ditch the hero ball asap. 

 

He made the terrible pick, and literally made the exact same throw later in the game when we were backed up by our own end zone and that one luckily fell incomplete.

 

The pick that ended the game was inexcusable. As film shows, he double clutches it, knows it's not there, and throws it anyways even though Murhphy is leaking out of the backfield wide open. 

 

As McDermott has been saying all year, Allen needs to figure out how to take what the defense is giving him. He can't just keep throwing passes into coverage and hoping his guy will make a play when the defender is in perfect position to break it up or intercept it. 

 

I've said from day 1 that Allen's biggest problem is that he tries to do too much; and it's true.

 

However, he's literally the entire offense right now (save for the occasional flash play from McKenzie on some type of jet-action sweep).  You can't ask the guy to ditch hero ball when he's been his team's entire offense for 3 consecutive years.

 

Figuring out how to take what the defense gives you is the career arc of nearly every QB that's ever entered the NFL.  So yeah, that's going to be important for him.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

49ers have the best receiving TE in the game, by FAR. Cardinals have (had) Fitzgerald and Kirk, both of whom are better than anything the Bills are currently fielding. Oakland has Jordy Nelson and 6 games worth of Amari Cooper. 

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is nuts.

 

 

And for the record this is a Football Outsiders writer who is not a fan of Josh Allen at all. That should be a catch 99% of the time. There is no arguing that this is a bad pass. It hits him right in the chest before the defender can impact the play.

 

 

I don't know why Bills fans have more trouble giving him credit than outsiders that didn't even like the pick.

I'm not saying that the ball shouldn't have been caught. I'm saying that the velocity was such that you're going to see an inordinate number of drops by receivers on the Bills given that he throws harder than anyone in the history of the league and has touch issues. Jones doesn't actually have bad hands and has been catching the ball pretty well lately. That throw was blazing. Could have been caught? Yes, of course, and maybe it is 6-7 times out of ten. My simple point is that the drop chances increase when the velocity goes up as high as it does with Allen. That's just basic logic. It's not the first time we've seen it go through a receiver's hand because there was too much mustard on it. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by dave mcbride

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm not saying that the ball shouldn't have been caught. I'm saying that the velocity was such that you're going to see an inordinate number of drops by receivers on the Bills given that he throws harder than anyone in the history of the league and has touch issues. Jones doesn't actually have bad hands and has been catching the ball pretty well lately. That throw was blazing. Could have been caught? Yes, of course, and maybe it is 6-7 times out of ten. My simple point is that the drop chances increase when the velocity goes up as high as it does with Allen. That's just basic logic. It's not the first time we've seen it go through a receiver's hand because there was too much mustard on it. 

 

Fair point--used to happen to Favre pretty regularly until WRs learned that they needed to up their concentration when it came to catching his fastballs.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm not saying that the ball shouldn't have been caught. I'm saying that the velocity was such that you're going to see an inordinate number of drops by receivers on the Bills given that he throws harder than anyone in the history of the league and has touch issues. Jones doesn't actually have bad hands and has been catching the ball pretty well lately. That throw was blazing. Could have been caught? Yes, of course, and maybe it is 6-7 times ouf ten. My simple point is that the drop chances increase when the velocity goes up as high as it does with Allen. That's just basic logic. It's not the first time we've seen it go through a receiver's hand because there was too much mustard on it. 

All true, but this is a WR issue, not a QB issue. 

 

'It was dropped because the QB threw a 17 yard hitch too hard for the wideout' isn't reality. If Jones (or any Bills WR) is only catching that ball 6-7 times out of 10 he needs to be benched until he learns to catch with his hands and not his chest.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

All true, but this is a WR issue, not a QB issue. 

 

'It was dropped because the QB threw a 17 yard hitch too hard for the wideout' isn't reality. If Jones (or any Bills WR) is only catching that ball 6-7 times out of 10 he needs to be benched until he learns to catch with his hands and not his chest.

Get used to it unless Allen develops more touch. And of course like everyone here I want major upgrades at the WR position (although I think Robert Foster looks like a quality NFL starter the way he's been playing lately). 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Get used to it unless Allen develops more touch. And of course like everyone here I want major upgrades at the WR position (although I think Robert Foster looks like a quality NFL starter the way he's been playing lately). 

The play in question isn't a 'touch' pass though. It needs to get there as fast as possible. Allen's ball just gets there a little faster than other QBs.

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The play in question isn't a 'touch' pass though. It needs to get there as fast as possible. Allen's ball just gets there a little faster than other QBs.

Agreed, but there still needs to be some degree of touch - i.e., don't throw it as hard as possible given your ridiculous velocity. Hopefully, that'll come with time. To be fair, I am simply blown away by some of his throws. Impressive to watch. 

[dakrider]

Its not just receivers being able to catch the ball, its also receivers that can beat their defender and make great catches.  How many great catches do Bills receivers make a game? 
Maybe have one all game if their lucky.  If you have a bunch of pedestrian receivers your going to mostly have a bunch of pedestrian results.   

Great receivers get open and find the seams in zones.  And then they are able to beat their defenders more so than not.  Go look at top receivers stats and the first Bills player is Zay Jones at #74.  I don't think any Bills receiver would be a starter on any another team that had their top receivers healthy.  

Bills need a #1 receiver with size and speed that is a real threat.  Benjamin obviously was not it.