Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[Mickey]

A young QB is struggling with accuracy while playing on a team with one of the worst OL's in the league and a pack of WR's who couldn't start for a pop warner team? Gee what a surprise. 

 

BTW, your analysis might be of more value if after each quarter you summarized his good throws, great throws, and holy s**t how did he do that throws the same way you did with his "bad" throws. 

 

And in the end, lets suppose everyone reads this "analysis" and falls down at your feet to reach a consensus that Allen struggles with accuracy? What is the next step? A campaign to fire the GM? A campaign to bench Allen for Barkley? Do you think we should dump Allen and go back to square one at QB? Where are you going with this? Is this just another post from someone sore that we didn't take Rosen or Rudolph who just can't stop trying to prove they were right all along?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Mickey

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Lol wat...

 

It was a horrible decision and throw. Trying to say it was accurate and right where he wanted to put it is stupid. 

No it's not.  He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed.  But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting.  He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

[mjt328]

11 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

I mentioned this in a different thread, but I'll say it again.

 

When Josh Allen sets his feet and steps into his throws, his passes are usually right on the money.  His misses (and no doubt there are more than what is ideal) are usually due to him rushing, failing to re-set his feet, relying on just his arm to wing it, etc., etc.  The key with making Allen more accurate is not overhauling his throwing motion or footwork.  It's just getting him to be more consistent in doing it right.

 

This is MUCH DIFFERENT than someone like EJ Manuel, who never displayed good QB mechanics and always seemed to just be throwing the ball in the receiver's "general direction."  My guess is that Manuel never really learned how to be a Quarterback, and just needed too much work by the time he reached the NFL. 

 

 

[Tatonka68]

If the Bills could run the ball and got better pass blocking it would help.

[stony]

1 hour ago, Pbomb said:

Can a qb consistently throw accurate with such a bad offensive line? Can we all agree our oline is terrible and greatly affects Allen’s play negatively 

I can agree that Allen detractors think his accuracy will always be piss poor and Allen supporters will always blame his accuracy on the o-line.  The truth is somewhere in the middle.  

[Zerovoltz]

5 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I mentioned this in a different thread, but I'll say it again.

 

When Josh Allen sets his feet and steps into his throws, his passes are usually right on the money.  His misses (and no doubt there are more than what is ideal) are usually due to him rushing, failing to re-set his feet, relying on just his arm to wing it, etc., etc.  The key with making Allen more accurate is not overhauling his throwing motion or footwork.  It's just getting him to be more consistent in doing it right.

 

This is MUCH DIFFERENT than someone like EJ Manuel, who never displayed good QB mechanics and always seemed to just be throwing the ball in the receiver's "general direction."  My guess is that Manuel never really learned how to be a Quarterback, and just needed too much work by the time he reached the NFL. 

 

 

...umm....interesting take on Manual needing "too much work".....when you are in a thread talking about Josh Allen....a guy who by all accounts was ready to go day 1.

[WideNine]

8 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

 

Details yes, with more than a bit of a bias-effect.

 

I could just as easily say that the pass over the middle to Clay would have been catchable had the Miami defender not been dragging Clay backwards. See how that works? It is subjectivity lending conclusions to a preconceived bias. We all do it to a degree, you just went into "painstaking detail" doing it. Don't let it keep you up at night.

 

Also, you would benefit from watching some of the All-22 reviews if you want to get fairly knowledgeable and objective analysis of what went right or wrong with a play. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by WideNine

[Zackry00]

I think to conclude that Josh Allen isn't good is premature.  Allen needs a supporting staff around him before we can see if he's a good qb or not.  He looks like a rookie and has shown lots of positives and some negatives to this point in the season.   I wanted to see how his rookie season has compared to a rookie season of a "good qb" in Jared Goff. Goff greatly improved in his second season and many wrote him off as a bust after his first. 

 

	Year	Age	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	4QC	GWD
Goff	2016	22	7	7	0-7-0	112	205	54.6	1089	5	7	66	5.3	4.3	9.7	155.6	63.6	18.9
Allen	2018	22	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	9	75	6.3	5	12	158.8	62.8	55.1	1	2

[Bangarang]

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No it's not.  He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed.  But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting.  He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, Zackry00 said:

I think to conclude that Josh Allen isn't good is premature.  Allen needs a supporting staff around him before we can see if he's a good qb or not.  He looks like a rookie and has shown lots of positives and some negatives to this point in the season.   I wanted to see how his rookie season has compared to a rookie season of a "good qb" in Jared Goff. Goff greatly improved in his second season and many wrote him off as a bust after his first. 

 

	Year	Age	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	4QC	GWD
Goff	2016	22	7	7	0-7-0	112	205	54.6	1089	5	7	66	5.3	4.3	9.7	155.6	63.6	18.9
Allen	2018	22	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	9	75	6.3	5	12	158.8	62.8	55.1	1	2

Why are you bringing objectivity and reason into this?

 

BTW: Greetings from another Bills fan in the Raleigh area 

[One Buffalo]

We live in a world of micro-analysis.  We like to pick things apart down to the finer details and then make general conclusions.  But while there is value in looking at every throw, it isn't necessarily a good measure.  Josh is a rookie, and he is going to make bad throws... lots of them.  But so did every other rookie QB before him.  He will continue to learn and develop.  McBeane will add more complementary pieces, and we will see more progression as Josh grows with the team being built around him.  

 

He has shown enough flash and ability to make throws that few can make to warrant expectation of a bright future.  Picking apart every throw is good for him to do with coaches, to learn from.  But for me, I just need to see him progressing and trending upwards... which he is.  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

We live in a world of micro-analysis.  We like to pick things apart down to the finer details and then make general conclusions.  But while there is value in looking at every throw, it isn't necessarily a good measure.  Josh is a rookie, and he is going to make bad throws... lots of them.  But so did every other rookie QB before him.  He will continue to learn and develop.  McBeane will add more complementary pieces, and we will see more progression as Josh grows with the team being built around him.  

 

He has shown enough flash and ability to make throws that few can make to warrant expectation of a bright future.  Picking apart every throw is good for him to do with coaches, to learn from.  But for me, I just need to see him progressing and trending upwards... which he is.  

 

This is the type of post that is just so right it should end the thread. 

[WideNine]

22 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

 

Agree with most of this - bad decisions happen, and happen more often in the face of pressure.

 

There are instances where a throw is accurate, but nearly picked off. Josh had one where he locked onto his favorite receiver Foster, never noted the safety help the corners had over the top, and threw what may have been an accurate pass to Foster, but was nearly picked off by the safety he dragged in with his eyes.

 

Rookie mistake of not reading coverage and not looking off the safety. A lot of folks thought that was a pass intended for McKenzie, but he was in the slot, Josh never looked his way, and I think McKenzie just ran his route a bit too deep and tried to make a play on a pass that was not intended for him.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

At some point you need to stop looking for the elusive, objective “it” factor and just decide that your QB has enough tools to build around and win games with.

 

That’s really it.

[mjt328]

32 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

...umm....interesting take on Manual needing "too much work".....when you are in a thread talking about Josh Allen....a guy who by all accounts was ready to go day 1.

 

I think you are missing my point.

Yes.  Both Manuel and Allen were drafted with bad problems in their throwing mechanics, and the HOPE we could fix their accuracy problems.  Coming out of college, there were a lot of similarities in that department.

 

As time went along, it became clear that Manuel's problem was too deep rooted to fix.  His throwing motion was already set, and it wasn't something he could re-learn from the ground-up.  In contrast, we are already seeing improvements in Allen that NEVER happened with our last 1st Round QB.  From college, to the Senior Bowl, to training camp/preseason, to Week 2, to now.  There is growth.  Yes, he's still missing lots of throws.  But the GOOD throws are there multiple times each week.  Which tells you he CAN get better.

 

What happens from here is anyone's guess.  Maybe Allen hits a wall. 

But maybe he continues to improve.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

Nice effort to do this.  A couple of points:

 

*  As others have noted you missed the Clay drop in the 1st quarter.

 

*  I'm not sure how to handle throwaways as they are not necessarily bad passes.  In fact I think we all can agree that it would have been good if he threw that first INT pass away.

 

*  Down & distance also have a big impact on passing accuracy.  Unlike most Bill's QB's over the last 20 years Allen actually tries to throw the ball PAST the 1st down marker on 2nd & 3rd and long. 

 

*  You state that throwing 7 inaccurate passes in 36 attempts is terrible by NFL standards.  But is that true?  Short of going back and charting a couple of random QB's who threw between 35 - 40 passes how do we know this?  In my experience watching a typical NFL game in which a QB throws over 35 passes I typically see what I would call 5 - 10 bad throws.  The other night in the Rams/Bears game featuring two of the better QB's in the league I believe that if we chartered their every throw both would have had bad throw percentages in the 20% range.   

[colin]

so i agree that JA17 has accuracy issues.  he's not like alex smith who just can't throw a dime, he just throws bad balls from time to time.

 

that said, how many times has he avoided a sure sack but sprinting away from pass rushers or stiff arming them?  he did it at least two times vs the jets (with the sprint out and the stiff arm, and i think about 6).  

 

most good qbs make the majority of their completions on easy peasy passes.  now allen certainly misses some of them due to running to early or not seeing the guy in time, but as a team we set our qb (any of them) up to fail more than anyone else.  i remember a big completion with 20 yards to go a couple times vs the jets.  how do we keep doing that?  the constant penalties on O and WR drops (combined with how terrible our run game has been) makes me marvel that we are even in games, and that's totally on the back of Josh Allen's ability to just flat out make plays that no one else is doing.

 

one single star WR would change this whole offense, let alone better protection.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Sorry to quote myself, but you can also look at Oakland before and after the trade.

 

Carr’s percentage has dropped over 5% in the games without Cooperand his yards passing per game has also decreased with the big change being the loss 1 single WR within the season.

Brady has had the same thing happen when Gronk and/or Edelman are out and Rodgers had the same issue when Nelson got hurt that one year...

[oldmanfan]

41 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

I actually thought he might have been trying to throw it out of bounds and the defender pushed him while he was in midair which turned his body and his arm and it ended up in the field of play instead of out of bounds...at the very least he made the throw worse that what it probably would have been if he wasn't hit...