The Ringer calls Josh Allen "America's Most Mobile Mountain"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Sorry if this is posted.  Didn't see it.  It's clear many are still pretty steadfast with one foot out the door on the Allen and use his "inaccuracy" as the excuse, but people are coming around to him being an incredibly unique, special talent.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/7/18129857/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-rushing-quarterback

 

I found it interesting that the throw Rodger Sherman picked on as an exhibit of Josh Allen's inaccuracy was this one:

"However, for every great throw, there are a bunch of bad ones. The knock on Allen coming out of college was that he was wildly inaccurate, and that seems to remain true, as an alarming number of his passes end up nowhere near receivers. Allen sometimes completely missed on screen passes, somehow failing to hit an unguarded 6-foot-tall target just feet away from him. I was delighted to learn that in the pros, this still happens:

Allen’s passing statistics are abysmal."

 

I watched that play on all-22 and I thought it was pretty likely Campbell (#93) deflected it.

 

You can see here he's unblocked and in the right position to possibly get a hand on it.  The film angle and quality aren't good enough to tell for sure, but the ball seems like it starts out as a tight spiral headed for McKensie's numbers, and after it passes Campbell it appears to change trajectory and deflect L and down.

 

If I wanted a throw to illustrate an assertion that Allen manages to "somehow miss" an unguarded 6 ft tall target, I would probably look for a play that didn't have an unblocked 300 lb 6'8" DLman along the throw's path.

[billsfan1959]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I found it interesting that the throw Rodger Sherman picked on as an exhibit of Josh Allen's inaccuracy was this one:

"However, for every great throw, there are a bunch of bad ones. The knock on Allen coming out of college was that he was wildly inaccurate, and that seems to remain true, as an alarming number of his passes end up nowhere near receivers. Allen sometimes completely missed on screen passes, somehow failing to hit an unguarded 6-foot-tall target just feet away from him. I was delighted to learn that in the pros, this still happens:

Allen’s passing statistics are abysmal."

 

I watched that play on all-22 and I thought it was pretty likely Campbell (#93) deflected it.

 

You can see here he's unblocked and in the right position to possibly get a hand on it.  The film angle and quality aren't good enough to tell for sure, but the ball seems like it starts out as a tight spiral headed for McKensie's numbers, and after it passes Campbell it appears to change trajectory and deflect L and down.

 

If I wanted a throw to illustrate an assertion that Allen manages to "somehow miss" an unguarded 6 ft tall target, I would probably look for a play that didn't have an unblocked 300 lb 6'8" DLman along the throw's path.

I watched that play in slow mo on the all 22 and I don't think it was tipped. Regardless, that was the one pass in the last two games that was in the category of "wildly" inaccurate. It is clear that Allen is playing much better football since coming back from his injury. This non-stop criticism of his accuracy is, IMO, ridiculous. If people come away from the last two games thinking his accuracy was a real issue, then, that is what they wanted to see.

 

In the last two games he was 26 for 52 for a 50% completion rate. However, if you take away the two Hail Mary passes and the 7 intentional throw aways (to avoid a sack or negative play), then he was 26 for 43, for a 60% completion rate, 391 yards, and 3 TDs. And I won't even address the passess that should have been caught or the completions that were negated by penalty.

Edited December 8, 2018 by billsfan1959

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I watched that play in slow mo on the all 22 and I don't think it was tipped. Regardless, that was the one pass in the last two games that was in the category of "wildly" inaccurate. It is clear that Allen is playing much better football since coming back from his injury. This non-stop criticism of his accuracy is, IMO, ridiculous. If people come away from the last two games thinking his accuracy was a real issue, then, that is what they wanted to see.

 

In the last two games he was 26 for 52 for a 50% completion rate. However, if you take away the two Hail Mary passes and the 7 intentional throw aways (to avoid a sack or negative play), then he was 26 for 43, for a 60% completion rate, 391 yards, and 3 TDs. And I won't even address the passess that should have been caught or the completions that were negated by penalty.

 

It's certainly not clear it was touched.  But strictly watching the ball as best I can, it does appear to change trajectory.

 

My point is just, if I were gonna try to make a point that Allen still throws "wtf?" off target passes for no apparent reason, I wouldn't choose a pass that has an unblocked DL with the wingspan of a California King-size mattress along its trajectory, because even if neither of us are convinced he did get a finger on it, neither can it be 100% ruled out.

 

The thing about the throw aways, Hail Marys, etc is that these do affect the completion percentage of all QB.  I do think it's a fair point that Allen has been throwing to one of the least talented/least experienced WR corps in the league.

 

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Please point out for us the plays in the Miami game that show his inaccuracy. He completed 11 of 12 passes under 20 yards. For the game, he deliberately threw 5 passes away to avoid a sack and completed 64% of all passes he actually tried to get to a receiver. Your takes are nothing more than lazy regurgitations of an overblown narrative. 

 

Josh Allen's passes are infinitely more accurate than your evaluations of his play.

Is this gonna be the new standard response?

 

Those that don't worship at the Josh Allen alter are to dissect every pass he throws and PROVE play by play how his passes missed the mark.

 

How about he improve his completion percentage so there's no need for such a test.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's certainly not clear it was touched.  But strictly watching the ball as best I can, it does appear to change trajectory.

 

My point is just, if I were gonna try to make a point that Allen still throws "wtf?" off target passes for no apparent reason, I wouldn't choose a pass that has an unblocked DL with the wingspan of a California King-size mattress along its trajectory, because even if neither of us are convinced he did get a finger on it, neither can it be 100% ruled out.

 

I don't know for sure. It does appear to change trajectory. However, as to your overall point, I agree with you 100%. It was the only "wtf?" pass he could find in the last two games - which is enough for him to proclaim Allen to be abysmal....

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Is this gonna be the new standard response?

 

Those that don't worship at the Josh Allen alter are to dissect every pass he throws and PROVE play by play how his passes missed the mark.

 

How about he improve his completion percentage so there's no need for such a test.

How about 60% completion rate over the last two games on passes he actually threw to receivers. I don't worship Josh Allen (you won't find any posts of mine to support that) and I certainly don't think it is beyond the bounds to ask anyone to support their claims of inaccuracy over the last two weeks. Repeating tired narratives is so lazy. Sorry if it offends you to ask people to support their claims.

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I don't know for sure. It does appear to change trajectory. However, as to your overall point, I agree with you 100%. It was the only "wtf?" pass he could find in the last two games - which is enough for him to proclaim Allen to be abysmal....

How about 60% completion rate over the last two games on passes he actually threw to receivers. I don't worship Josh Allen (you won't find any posts of mine to support that) and I certainly don't think it is beyond the bounds to ask anyone to support their claims of inaccuracy over the last two weeks. Repeating tired narratives is so lazy. Sorry if it offends you to ask people to support their claims.

All quarterbacks have throwaways, hail mary's, etc. Their overall completion percentage is reflective of that.

 

Nobody in their right mind would hold the hail mary INT against JA, but comp pctg. still matters and JA is not the only quarterback occasionally throwing balls away.

 

Josh has shown a great deal of growth over the last two games. There's no need to contort oneself in knots to make excuses for the one area he needs to improve upon.

Edited December 8, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Uh what? Why is "inaccuracy" in quotations? You act like he's not definitively inaccurate... 

Also, it's not an excuse, it's reality. Accuracy is important, considering the primary job of the QB is to get the ball to his receivers, and being inaccurate doesn't allow that.

This shouldn't be hard to comprehend. Only Bills fans would somehow convince themselves ACCURACY out of all things, isn't a vital component of a successful QB... Holy s*** people will go to stupid lengths to convince themselves everything is going swimmingly.

 

If you're watching Allen play, you would realize his WRs and TEs are probably the biggest reason for his low completion % along with the fact that he's always throwing down the field.

 

Allen is a lot more accurate than advertised.

 

Completion % doesn't equal accuracy.

[C.Biscuit97]

17 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Lost in all this

 

Should have been up around 275 yards passing and had 2 touchdowns flat dropped in this game.....what would have given him what.......5 TDs on the day?

 

All this with no running game.

Man, imagine if we did this for all qbs?  Mahomes should have had 600 yards and 8 tds!

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

All quarterbacks have throwaways, hail mary's, etc. Their overall completion percentage is reflective of that.

 

Nobody in their right mind would hold the hail mary INT against JA, but comp pctg. still matters and JA is not the only quarterback occasionally throwing balls away.

 

Josh has shown a great deal of growth over the last two games. There's no need to contort oneself in knots to make excuses for the one area he needs to improve upon.

Not contorting myself into knots and not upset in any way. Merely pointing out the inaccuracy fallacy that people seem to desparately cling to around here. Not sure why that bothers you so much...

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

All quarterbacks have throwaways, hail mary's, etc. Their overall completion percentage is reflective of that.

 

Nobody in their right mind would hold the hail mary INT against JA, but comp pctg. still matters and JA is not the only quarterback occasionally throwing balls away.

 

Josh has shown a great deal of growth over the last two games. There's no need to contort oneself in knots to make excuses for the one area he needs to improve upon.

I think I did the same thing for EJ and JP.

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

Not contorting myself into knots and not upset in any way. Merely pointing out the inaccuracy fallacy that people seem to desparately cling to around here. Not sure why that bothers you so much...

I call it like I see it. If all our receivers had SpiderMan like ability, Allen's completion percentage would be 100%!! 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If you're watching Allen play, you would realize his WRs and TEs are probably the biggest reason for his low completion % along with the fact that he's always throwing down the field.

 

Allen is a lot more accurate than advertised.

 

Completion % doesn't equal accuracy.

See this is problem.  I get we want Allen to be awesome.  But you could do stuff like this for every qb.  Also, Allen has had a less than 60% on every level football.  Is it always osmeone’s Else fault or does he possibly need to become a more accurate passer?

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think I did the same thing for EJ and JP.

Same, which is why I'm at the point of objectively assessing the performance of the Bills quarterback. Been burned too many times believing the hype.

[aceman_16]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I still don’t think he’s good, but I’m certainly glad a player with these unique traits is in the pros.

^^ lazy lazy reporting ^^

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Please point out for us the plays in the Miami game that show his inaccuracy. He completed 11 of 12 passes under 20 yards. For the game, he deliberately threw 5 passes away to avoid a sack and completed 64% of all passes he actually tried to get to a receiver. Your takes are nothing more than lazy regurgitations of an overblown narrative. 

 

Josh Allen's passes are infinitely more accurate than your evaluations of his play.

 

I'd really rather not use the Miami game.  It seemed as though his passes through the whole game were not the clean sharp spirals I've seen, but worse in the first half.  I didn't think the Q1 3rd&6 20 yd shot to Foster was accurate, but every QB in the country over- and under- throws passes from time to time.  The point is: there were real concerns about Allen's accuracy coming into the season - points that were acknowledged not just by Armchair Arnies or Bernie with a Blog, but by Daboll and Allen himself, and by his QB coach Jordan Palmer.  I see improvement.  I think we all also see gaps and problems in the WR corps.  Until Allen's completion percentage rises, we're going to continue to hear those concerns.  The way to address them is for everyone to work hard the rest of the season and in the off season - Allen continue to work on his footwork and Beane to improve the roster at WR and OL, not to invite people to nitpick every throw Allen makes or call those who question whether his accuracy is enough "lazy regurgitations".

 

I'm more concerned about Allen's head, his 'field vision' and decision making.  Here's an example - Q1 1st&10 at the Buff 49, recorded as "short L to McCoy for -6 yds".  McCoy acts as though he's stayed in to block.  Allen must not like what he sees downfield.  Eventually McCoy turns around and Allen throws to him.  McCoy is smacked immediately and it speaks volumes for him as a football player that he hangs on to the ball while being hauled down in an un-noticed "horse collar" tackle.

Meanwhile, McKensie is standing all alone on the Buff 46, with no one within 5 yds of him, and Allen has a clear lane to him.  Allen never looks that way. 

 

 

Gotta See the Bunnies, Gotta Make The Bunnies.  McKensie could probably get 3 yds and if he makes his guy miss, go for more.  At worst, he'd get the ball back to the LOS and it would be 2nd and 10 instead of 2nd and 16.  Like a Monk seal with an eel up its nose:  we need you to make better choices, Josh.

 

Again, every QB misses guys who are open, and Allen is a rookie, but he's got to improve here to be The Man. 

[KollegeStudnet]

He throws a mean velocity on the ball. My only hope is he stops throwing screen passes/short throws at 700 mph, so that players can catch it. ?

[Shaw66]

I think the continued dissing of Allen is evidence of the same press bias that is out there.   This guy writes very nicely and he SOUNDS authoritative, but I don't know what he's talking about.   It seems clear to me he hasn't been watching the games.   I think he looks at highlights and stats.  

 

Frankly, as much as I love his running, I don't get too excited about.  I loved Taylor running, too, but all that matters was whether he could play QB in the NFL.  He demonstrated that he could, but just marginally.   He couldn't get significantly better.  He looked like the same guy in Cleveland.  

 

It isn't about running.  It's about passing and running the team.   Allen makes an occasional bad throw, but he is NOT an inconsistent thrower.   His passing seems to keep getting better, with a lot of passes right where they need to be.   I keep thinking about the throw to Jones on the sideline at the end of the Dolphins game, the one overturned on review.   That was an outstanding throw.  He has a lot of those.   

 

What problems I see are minor.   He doesn't always get his feet set - every once in a while he throws a bit off balance.  I think he isn't seeing all the receivers all the time.   I saw something somewhere that said that he should be checking the ball down more than he is - he's always going downfield, even if it's a tight window, when it would be fine for him to take the checkdown, gets some high probability free yards and go on to the next play.  He has a lower completion percentage on those tight-window downfield plays.   

 

Allen has a lots of little things he needs to learn, lots and lots.   He's smart and he's motivated.   I don't doubt that he'll learn them.   The real point is that he is, today, a bona fide NFL starting quarterback.  Right now.   I think people who haven't watched enough to see these things just will be late to the party. 

[Shaw66]

Here's a list of the 12 QBs with passer ratings just above Allen's, which is 34 best in the league.   So it's 21 through 33.  

 

I think Allen would be starting ahead of all those guys.  Especially when you consider his running, but even without it.   

 

21	Marcus Mariota, QB	TEN	206	298	69.1	2,330	7.82	61	11	8	39	93.4	194
22	Baker Mayfield, QB	CLE	224	354	63.3	2,639	7.46	71	18	10	22	91.1	264
23	Jameis Winston, QB	TB	157	232	67.7	1,941	8.37	60	12	11	18	90.8	277
24	Matthew Stafford, QB	DET	292	439	66.5	3,086	7.03	67	18	11	36	90.0	257
25	Andy Dalton, QB	CIN	226	365	61.9	2,566	7.03	49	21	11	21	89.6	233
26	Brock Osweiler, QB	MIA	113	178	63.5	1,247	7.01	75	6	4	16	86.1	208
27	Alex Smith, QB	WSH	205	328	62.5	2,180	6.65	52	10	5	22	85.7	218
28	Case Keenum, QB	DEN	256	411	62.3	2,953	7.19	64	14	10	28	85.1	246
29	Joe Flacco, QB	BAL	232	379	61.2	2,465	6.50	71	12	6	16	84.2	274
30	Blake Bortles, QB	JAX	223	369	60.4	2,572	6.97	80	13	10	27	81.9	234
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	INT	SACK	RATE	YDS/G
31	C.J. Beathard, QB	SF	102	169	60.4	1,252	7.41	82	8	7	18	81.8	209
32	Sam Darnold, QB	NYJ	159	289	55.0	1,934	6.69	76	11	14	21	68.3	215
33	Josh Rosen, QB	ARI	148	273	54.2	1,670	6.12	75	10	11	26	68.2	167

[PlayoffsPlease]

Stats are tricky in football, currently according to NFL "next gen stats" Josh Allen has the longest average attempted pass, by a considerable margin 11.1 yds.  This clearly lowers the expected completion percentage. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Stats are tricky in football, currently according to NFL "next gen stats" Josh Allen has the longest average attempted pass, by a considerable margin 11.1 yds.  This clearly lowers the expected completion percentage. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards

That's an interesting list.  Clearly, he has to learn to throw shorter passes.  Seriously.    Success in the NFL requires high completion percentage - that's what works.  A five-yard completion is better than a 12-yard incompletion, obviously.  That's what hapless was demonstrating, in a way, when he talked about Allen throwing to McCoy for a loss.   In both that case and downfield passes that fall incomplete, he isn't making all the right choices.   That just takes time, practice, coaching.