Allen vs. Darnold: Analysts Evaluate the Present and Predict the Future

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

Well Allen did have a TD, a rushing TD after dodging their defense in our backfield per usual.... I just also disagree with this "less accomplished throwing the ball." Darnold also had a really stupid/bad pick, and STILL leads the league in INT's even after his four week hiatus. Allen also threw for more yards. The only difference is completion percentage. If you factor in the 5-6 or whatever routine drops our WR's made (Darnolds crew didnt drop any) than Allen's completion percent is only 1% less than Darnold, but add in about another 100 yards almost doubling Sam's. So the real difference is Sam had a throwing TD, and 1 less INT... then again Sam's TD came on a 12 second play where he still was barely threatened and not hit. I bet Allen's thinking that kind of time must be nice

No -- Darnold averaged 6.8 yards per attempt (league average-ish), and Allen averaged 4.8 (which is bad). YPA is probably the most indicative stat for QB success.

[TheElectricCompany]

As usual, Teflon Josh is in full effect. Stats don't matter for this guy. Everything can be explained away. 

2BD loves to talk about Allen's drops & throwaways and come up with some adjusted completion percentage.

Of course, we don't do this for the other 31 QBs, so it's a very accurate comparison. 

Did anyone see the Fox stats about Aaron Rodgers and his 50 throwaways? No other team has more than 30! 

 

[billspro]

4 hours ago, AllenWillBust said:

 

What is there to admit exactly?  50% completion in college was his main flaw.  Guess where he's at in the NFL?  But go ahead and use your eye test BS to make yourself feel better about your favorite NFL team.

 

 

 

Watch the games, six drops yesterday. He was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks which is brutal. The Bills have one of the worst olines in team history for run blocking and pass protection. His best WR is an undrafted rookie who should be a WR4. He carved the Jets up whenever he had time. Both Allen and Darnold shows flashes of franchise QB ability yesterday. Allen looks like he has a chance to be a top 5 QB where Darnold ceiling is probably more in the 10-15 range.

[Luka]

13 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

As usual, Teflon Josh is in full effect. Stats don't matter for this guy. Everything can be explained away. 

2BD loves to talk about Allen's drops & throwaways and come up with some adjusted completion percentage.

Of course, we don't do this for the other 31 QBs, so it's a very accurate comparison. 

Did anyone see the Fox stats about Aaron Rodgers and his 50 throwaways? No other team has more than 30! 

 

 

So you are saying that Fox was explaining away Rodgers completion percentage this year? Interesting...

 

So in reality, people do this for every QB in the league, especially the good ones when they have an off day or an off year but you're upset that we can also apply that to a rookie QB with 8 starts who should be getting the benefit of the doubt since he is a rookie.

 

Right.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Josh Allen started OK, then relapsed with rookie mistakes in the passing game.  Blockhead Darnold made the same bad throw for an INT

 

Losing 2 RB's didn't help

Having some of the ball catchers get banged up  didn't help

The blindside hit on House$  didn't help

 

AND Special teams were horrendous.  

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[billspro]

18 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

As usual, Teflon Josh is in full effect. Stats don't matter for this guy. Everything can be explained away. 

2BD loves to talk about Allen's drops & throwaways and come up with some adjusted completion percentage.

Of course, we don't do this for the other 31 QBs, so it's a very accurate comparison. 

Did anyone see the Fox stats about Aaron Rodgers and his 50 throwaways? No other team has more than 30! 

 

 

If you care about completion percentage than you will probably never be happy with Allen. I doubt he ever gets above 62% in a season. He averages the highest air yards per attempt in the league. He will have some years where he leads the league in explosive throws. He is very similar to Cam Newton. There is a way to win a championship with that type of QB.

[TheElectricCompany]

3 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

So you are saying that Fox was explaining away Rodgers completion percentage this year? Interesting...

 

So in reality, people do this for every QB in the league, especially the good ones when they have an off day or an off year but you're upset that we can also apply that to a rookie QB with 8 starts who should be getting the benefit of the doubt since he is a rookie.

 

Right.

 

Allen doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Rodgers does. 

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

13 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

If you care about completion percentage than you will probably never be happy with Allen. I doubt he ever gets above 62% in a season. He averages the highest air yards per attempt in the league. He will have some years where he leads the league in explosive throws. He is very similar to Cam Newton. There is a way to win a championship with that type of QB.

 

Average Air Yards Differential (AYD) - did you notice Drew Brees is the worst passer in this category? 

 

Air Yards Differential is calculated by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes.  

He may be highest "air yards per attempt", but his 6.3 YPA is only bested by Josh Rosen.  

 

Cam torched the league his rookie year. Remember when he threw for 400 yards in his first start?  Josh is a far better runner than advertised, but he's not in the same ballpark as Cam throwing the ball. 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[billspro]

14 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Highest "air yards per attempt", but his 6.3 YPA is only bested by Josh Rosen. Quite the disconnect. 

Cam torched the league his rookie year. Remember when he threw for 400 yards in his first start? 

Josh is a far better runner than advertised, but he's not in the same ballpark as Cam throwing the ball. 

 

 

We will just have to disagree, The stats are the stats. They need to improve. I know they will next year. 

 

Allen had at least six drops yesterday, 3 that cost the Bills on third downs. Allen was 6 of 9 on third down throws, with three drops. Let that sink in for a minute. When was the last time the Bills had a QB that could convert third downs? Probably Kelly. 

 

6 drops and 3 throw away we’re the reason for 9 of his incompletions.   

 

Im not saying there were no flaws. Both INTs were bad and probably should have been throw aways. He had three throws which he threw in the dirt. Those plays need to improve next year.

 

This oline is one of the worst units in Bills history. They allowed pressure on 50% of drop backs yesterday and Josh seemed to be hit on most of his completions. His best WR is a WR4 on every other team in the league and only has backup quality TEs. He basically carried the offence on his back, this is still the same group that had one of the worst DVOAs in league history, they just have a good QB now. I doubt there is a QB in the league that could have good stats with this group.

Edited December 10, 2018 by billspro

[Luka]

24 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Allen doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Rodgers does. 

 

 

 

Yikes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Allen doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Rodgers does.

 

Interesting.

 

Allen is a rookie playing behind a sieve-like OL and throwing to Zay Jones and scraps at WR and a TE who can't seem to catch a cold.

 

Rodgers is a 14 year vet and throwing to a 5 yr vet WR with 3 near-1000 yd seasons and a probowl in Davante Adams, an 8 yr vet TE with multiple probowls and playoff appearances in Jimmy Graham, and a fading but still talented Randall Cobb.  His RT and LT are two of the best in the league.

 

Might one ask why a rookie does not get the benefit of the doubt but Rodgers does?

[Bob in STL]

2 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

Well Allen did have a TD, a rushing TD after dodging their defense in our backfield per usual.... I just also disagree with this "less accomplished throwing the ball." Darnold also had a really stupid/bad pick, and STILL leads the league in INT's even after his four week hiatus. Allen also threw for more yards. The only difference is completion percentage. If you factor in the 5-6 or whatever routine drops our WR's made (Darnolds crew didnt drop any) than Allen's completion percent is only 1% less than Darnold, but add in about another 100 yards almost doubling Sam's. So the real difference is Sam had a throwing TD, and 1 less INT... then again Sam's TD came on a 12 second play where he still was barely threatened and not hit. I bet Allen's thinking that kind of time must be nice

 

The real difference to me is that Darnold won on the road and he came from behind to do it.  He led a long TD drive to tie the game in the fourth quarter when he made the best scramble of the game and then threw a perfect TD strike to #11 who was being covered by Tre'davious White.  Next he led his team to another score, tossing a perfect bomb again to #11 who again was covered by White.  He beat our best CB  twice and both times White was there.  Those were both big time NFL throws.  Those plays go beyond the stats. 

 

Darnold threw better, the stats show it and so do the plays I just described, especially in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.

 

If Darnold was a Bill you would be anointing him the next great QB.  He took a step forward.

 

Allen did fine, he played about the same as he did in the loss to Miami.  We have no running game and we have a horrible OL that gives him no time.  We have horrid special teams and our defense did not hold up.  Still, looking at the two I was more impressed with Darnold.  I still like Allen, but I was more impressed with Darnold in that game.    I am not afraid to admit it just because he is on the Jets. 

 

Hey we beat the Jets with ease with Barkley at QB on the road, I expected more from the Bills.  The Bills  underperformed in all three phases of the game. 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[Magox]

They both showed lots of promise.  I look forward to them going head to head over the next decade.

[gobills1212]

7 hours ago, AllenWillBust said:

Thanks?  lmao

How do you root for a team, but not the QB1?

Just seems pretty odd as once he was drafted his haters (but Bills fans) realized he is their guy now so lets go for the ride. 

This much angst for a guy who is the face of your team seems counterproductive 

[PolishPrince]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

 

The real difference to me is that Darnold won on the road and he came from behind to do it.  He led a long TD drive to tie the game in the fourth quarter when he made the best scramble of the game and then threw a perfect TD strike to #11 who was being covered by Tre'davious White.  Next he led his team to another score, tossing a perfect bomb again to #11 who again was covered by White.  He beat our best CB  twice and both times White was there.  Those were both big time NFL throws.  Those plays go beyond the stats. 

 

Darnold threw better, the stats show it and so do the plays I just described, especially in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.

 

If Darnold was a Bill you would be anointing him the next great QB.  He took a step forward.

 

Allen did fine, he played about the same as he did in the loss to Miami.  We have no running game and we have a horrible OL that gives him no time.  We have horrid special teams and our defense did not hold up.  Still, looking at the two I was more impressed with Darnold.  I still like Allen, but I was more impressed with Darnold in that game.    I am not afraid to admit it just because he is on the Jets. 

 

Hey we beat the Jets with ease with Barkley at QB on the road, I expected more from the Bills.  The Bills  underperformed in all three phases of the game. 

 

 

We will just disagree. I wanted Darnold over Allen before draft. Now I’m in the opposite boat. 

 

And no no if he was a Bill I would not be annointing him the next big thing. In fact Allen is the first time I have felt strongly about a Bills QB before and I didn’t even want him before the draft.

 

im sorry “Darnold made plays on the road to win”. He was starting all drives on our side of the field facing literally 0 pressure. Any pro QB should be fine in this situation lol. Allen working with much less talent was constantly starting deep in our own territory. Our ST even gave them the ball on the 50 yard line in his game winning drive meanwhile Allen is starting at our own what 15? Darnold made the final TD pass, he made a couple big plays on his last drive sure. But this game is a blowout if ST was worth any sort of damn. Our defense held jets to nothing for yardage for 3 quarters.

 

i would take Anderson, Enunwa, Herndon over Clay, Zay and our thrown together misfit WR every time. Oh yeah, and that McQwire guy looked decent running, we have 0 run game to take pressure off Allen, meanwhile jets have done a decent job on the ground all year.

 

our offense is literally Allen. That’s a lot to put on a “raw project rookie who shouldn’t start his first year” yet Allen is doing a damn fine job minus a couple throws a game. 

 

Plus another overlooked thing is Allen has the intangibles and leadership, I don’t see the same in Darnold at all. Yes I’ve been following him all year, I like most have been very interested in all the QB’s from this class

[Bob in STL]

2 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

We will just disagree. I wanted Darnold over Allen before draft. Now I’m in the opposite boat. 

 

And no no if he was a Bill I would not be annointing him the next big thing. In fact Allen is the first time I have felt strongly about a Bills QB before and I didn’t even want him before the draft.

 

im sorry “Darnold made plays on the road to win”. He was starting all drives on our side of the field facing literally 0 pressure. Any pro QB should be fine in this situation lol. Allen working with much less talent was constantly starting deep in our own territory. Our ST even gave them the ball on the 50 yard line in his game winning drive meanwhile Allen is starting at our own what 15? Darnold made the final TD pass, he made a couple big plays on his last drive sure. But this game is a blowout if ST was worth any sort of damn. Our defense held jets to nothing for yardage for 3 quarters.

 

i would take Anderson, Enunwa, Herndon over Clay, Zay and our thrown together misfit WR every time. Oh yeah, and that McQwire guy looked decent running, we have 0 run game to take pressure off Allen, meanwhile jets have done a decent job on the ground all year.

 

our offense is literally Allen. That’s a lot to put on a “raw project rookie who shouldn’t start his first year” yet Allen is doing a damn fine job minus a couple throws a game. 

 

Plus another overlooked thing is Allen has the intangibles and leadership, I don’t see the same in Darnold at all. Yes I’ve been following him all year, I like most have been very interested in all the QB’s from this class

 

I don't know who I would of taken if given the choice between Allen or Darnold.  I don't follow college close enough.  I like Allen and I think there is hope for him if we can get him some help. 

 

Darnold looked great when it counted. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

 

The Allen highlight reel showed me four things:

 

*  he made a number of excellent touch throws particularly on the first two TD drives. 

 

*  to watch the multiple 3rd down & long plays he converted with superb throws and then claim that Allen regressed in his passing game is to be deliberately obtuse. 

 

*  when Allen had time and could stand tall in the pocket he delivered some laser beams. 

 

*  with the exception of the TD run Allen's runs had two distinguishing features:  1)  they chewed up chunk yardage and 2) he didn't take any real hits when running. 

[PittsforDave]

That game winning scramble from Darnold was impressive, esp on a bum foot. 

 

Allen needs to put together a full game and avoid the lull. 

 

Both QBs have potential to be franchise qbs, Sam is a bit more polished.