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Baldy's Breakdown of Allen vs. Miami

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1 hour ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

the consensus in the national media and most of this board until a few weeks was JA could not be an NFL QB due to:

1. accuracy.  seems pretty accurate most of the time to me.  many of his incompletions are catchable.

2. footwork.  its all wrong and cant be fixed.  right?  I specifically remember this being an issue after the draft.

3. reading defense.  he cant process fast enough.  supposedly.

4. too big and slow.  all big guys must be slow, its a rule somewhere.

5. Wyoming??  no one good comes from a school not ranked in the top ten nationally.  its just not possible.

 

 

 

1 and 3 are true based on my recollection.

 

5 is half true.

 

People don't like that he lost in Wyoming. If he won in Wyoming or had success against any big teams, they wouldn't have minded that it was Wyoming. The issue wasn't just the location.

 

The footwork is half-true as well, I guess. The issue was inconsistency. He showed good movement in the pocket, though. Seems to be the same way in the NFL...

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1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

1 and 3 are true based on my recollection.

 

5 is half true.

 

People don't like that he lost in Wyoming. If he won in Wyoming or had success against any big teams, they wouldn't have minded that it was Wyoming. The issue wasn't just the location.

Allen with his physical gifts might turn out to be a better NFL QB then in college because he's learning how to play the position ie learning how to place his feet, learning to stay in the pocket or escape when needed. All I know is he's convinced me he better than I thought he was going to be coming in. Yet he still needs to learn consistency which hopefully come over time/experience. 

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6 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Allen with his physical gifts might turn out to be a better NFL QB then in college because he's learning how to play the position ie learning how to place his feet, learning to stay in the pocket or escape when needed. All I know is he's convinced me he better than I thought he was going to be coming in. Yet he still needs to learn consistency which hopefully come over time/experience. 

He's recently exceeded my expectations as well. He has all the confidence in the world, which really helps.

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16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly.   The guy is great.   It's so exciting having him as the Bills' QB.

 

He has little things to learn, like you've said.   I'm sure there are a hundred more, or a thousand.   That's what experience does.  No one expects him to get all of these little things right in his rookie year.   His rookie year is to show he deserves to be on the field, and he's done that, for sure.   His rookie year is the beginning of the process of mastering first the big details, then the smaller and smaller details.  We're seeing that happen - every week the guy looks better than he looked the week before.  

 

And this is what should excite every Bills fan who doesn't have an agenda.  I've now read numerous reviews/breakdowns of Sunday's game and many come to the conclusion Allen was the best player on the field for either team.  And he has played in seven games!

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1 minute ago, eball said:

 

And this is what should excite every Bills fan who doesn't have an agenda.  I've now read numerous reviews/breakdowns of Sunday's game and many come to the conclusion Allen was the best player on the field for either team.  And he has played in seven games!

 

He was!

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10 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

I still can’t believe Clay’s poor adjustment to the ball.

But according to many posters "the ball wobbled though! Thats on Josh!"

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59 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Thanks for chiming in, nothing personal we have agreed on many ocassions going back to the old board. I’m just interested in how the view is for guys that had doubts about the pick and if he is changing opinions. 

 

I think Allen has had his own eureka moment over the past couple weeks. 

 

He went from hearing how big, strong and athletic he was, to figuring out on an NFL field that he can just outrun defenders. Linemen and linebackers can't keep up with him, and he's strong enough to shrug off arm tackles which is amazingly impressive.

 

As a passer, I don't think he's there yet, but his running ability is remarkable. He's figured out that if his 1st, or 2nd reads aren't open, he can run around and buy time and allow his receivers to get uncovered as he scrambles outside the pocket. This is both good and bad, although probably more of a glass is half full situation.

 

The good is that he's capable of making big plays that few QBs in the league can make. The bad is that our offense is susceptible to long stretches where they do nothing. Case and point our offense did nothing in the first half against the Dolphins, and Allen only had 50 yards passing. 

 

In the pocket is where I find Allen still struggles. He still has the occasional head scratching throw where he misses a "gimme" that could move the chains or put us in 3rd and short. These were on tape at Wyoming and they're been something he does a couple times a game as a Bill. 

 

Where he struggles most is anytime he has to put air under the ball. It simply doesn't come naturally to him. He can throw the ball 80 yards, but he's consistently struggled to hit wide open targets on deep balls throughout this season. I get that completing a 65 yard pass isn't easy, but each time he's missed the WR has 2-3 full steps of separation and he has to start hitting these at some point. Foster got open against Miami, and he got open a couple times the first 2-3 weeks of the season and Josh hasn't hit him yet. He needs to figure out how to put the ball in spots where his guy can comfortably adjust their route and run under it, vs having them go full speed and hitting them in stride. 

 

On shorter touch passes he's also been inconsistent. He missed one to Foster down the sideline, and he missed an easy one to Jones up the sideline after he rolled out to his right. The one to Jones would have been negated by a penalty, but he still needs to hit it. Simply put - you can't miss wide open receivers at this level. 

 

All in all, I thought Allen was awful his first 5 games pre injury. He's been a lot better since. His running ability is truly elite, and that alone gives him a higher floor than expected. He can run around and make plays and should be able to put some points on the board. 

 

My original issue with him remains, which is that he's not very good from the pocket. He's a 23 year old kid with minimal wear on his tires who can happily run around, make big throws and take the hits that come with them. Eventually those are going to take a toll though, because they take a toll on every QB. When he's 27, and has taken 400+ hits (sacks, QB hits, tackles at the end of runs) his body isn't going to be as limber. The running will decrease, and he'll become more and more dependent on his ability as a passer to make plays. The signs over the past 2 weeks are relatively positive, but there's a long way to go before he's a drop back QB who can chuck it 40 times a game. 

Edited by jrober38

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14 minutes ago, eball said:

 

And this is what should excite every Bills fan who doesn't have an agenda.  I've now read numerous reviews/breakdowns of Sunday's game and many come to the conclusion Allen was the best player on the field for either team.  And he has played in seven games!

I like how Baldy at the end points out that its Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn chasing Allen in the backfield, and they really dont even come close to getting him lol. 

Hasn't Wake usually had good games against us in the past? I cant think of many QB's that would survive behind our OLine vs Wake and Quinn....

 

Also its going to be really interesting seeing what teams will do to spy Allen in the future... so far LBers dont work. Do they start spying with Safeties? I feel like most will struggle to tackle Josh unless they trip him or somehow catch him at a straight angle with speed built up (assuming Josh doesnt dodge it). Do they start spying with 2 LBers? If they do it should start opening a lot more short/intermediate routes.... the rest of this season will be as interesting as it gets for a team with no playoff hope.

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52 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Thanks for chiming in, nothing personal we have agreed on many ocassions going back to the old board. I’m just interested in how the view is for guys that had doubts about the pick and if he is changing opinions. 

 

I was really disapointed with the pick, l won´t lie, I was frustraded. Baker was my guy and I was sure we were going to trade up to get him, but when he went 1st overall I knew we had nothing to do against that. I knew Darnold was going to the Jets so my hope was to trade up to take the other Josh.

 

When they anounced the trade I was 100000% sure we had our guy JR. 

 

I was in that group of people that belive that his com % , small school, lack of experience, bad results agianst good competition would not translate well to the NFL.

 

After the draft was over, I started t oread even more about him and a couple of weeks later I started to get why the FO chose him. I understood that they were looking at the long term plan and that the up side was really high.

 

Today I can tell you that I still don´t know if I was wrong, but I am really happy with the guy, he plays hard, he gives everything he has, he cares, he wants it and he has every bit of skills needed to succeed.

 

I hope he proves me wrong and I Will be really happy as I am so far.

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3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think Allen has had his own eureka moment over the past couple weeks. 

 

He went from hearing how big, strong and athletic he was, to figuring out on an NFL field that he can just outrun defenders. Linemen and linebackers can't keep up with him, and he's strong enough to shrug off arm tackles which is amazingly impressive.

 

As a passer, I don't think he's there yet, but his running ability is remarkable. He's figured out that if his 1st, or 2nd reads aren't open, he can run around and buy time and allow his receivers to get uncovered as he scrambles outside the pocket. This is both good and bad, although probably more of a glass is half full situation.

 

The good is that he's capable of making big plays that few QBs in the league can make. The bad is that our offense is susceptible to long stretches where they do nothing. Case and point our offense did nothing in the first half against the Dolphins, and Allen only had 50 yards passing. 

 

In the pocket is where I find Allen still struggles. He still has the occasional head scratching throw where he misses a "gimme" that could move the chains or put us in 3rd and short. These were on tape at Wyoming and they're been something he does a couple times a game as a Bill. 

 

Where he struggles most is anytime he has to put air under the ball. It simply doesn't come naturally to him. He can throw the ball 80 yards, but he's consistently struggled to hit wide open targets on deep balls throughout this season. I get that completing a 65 yard pass isn't easy, but each time he's missed the WR has 2-3 full steps of separation and he has to start hitting these at some point. Foster got open against Miami, and he got open a couple times the first 2-3 weeks of the season and Josh hasn't hit him yet. He needs to figure out how to put the ball in spots where his guy can comfortably adjust their route and run under it, vs having them go full speed and hitting them in stride. 

 

On shorter touch passes he's also been inconsistent. He missed one to Foster down the sideline, and he missed an easy one to Jones up the sideline after he rolled out to his right. The one to Jones would have been negated by a penalty, but he still needs to hit it. Simply put - you can't miss wide open receivers at this level. 

 

All in all, I thought Allen was awful his first 5 games pre injury. He's been a lot better since. His running ability is truly elite, and that alone gives him a higher floor than expected. He can run around and make plays and should be able to put some points on the board. 

 

My original issue with him remains, which is that he's not very good from the pocket. He's a 23 year old kid with minimal wear on his tires who can happily run around, make big throws and take the hits that come with them. Eventually those are going to take a toll though, because they take a toll on every QB. When he's 27, and has taken 400+ hits (sacks, QB hits, tackles at the end of runs) his body isn't going to be as limber. The running will decrease, and he'll become more and more dependent on his ability as a passer to make plays. The signs over the past 2 weeks are relatively positive, but there's a long way to go before he's a drop back QB who can chuck it 40 times a game. 

In fairness he doesnt have much of a pocket to work with. Most of the pressure he deals with isnt from the edges which is more typical... its always up the middle, so you cant "step up" into the pocket. Even look at Baldy's plays, he is in the pocket and sidestepping guys in his face from the middle.

Also I thought he made some very nice plays from the pocket last game. Zay TD, the almost to Foster, really the final drive he was mostly in the pocket and made some big throws to Foster, Shady and almost to Zay

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10 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

It’s possible Clay just slipped

That's actually what they said during the game, that his feet just slipped out from under him when he tried to rush forward

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13 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

 

Also its going to be really interesting seeing what teams will do to spy Allen in the future... so far LBers dont work. Do they start spying with Safeties? I feel like most will struggle to tackle Josh unless they trip him or somehow catch him at a straight angle with speed built up (assuming Josh doesnt dodge it). Do they start spying with 2 LBers? If they do it should start opening a lot more short/intermediate routes.... the rest of this season will be as interesting as it gets for a team with no playoff hope.

 

When the defense has to "spy" the QB it does two things -- it takes one man out of coverage and takes one man away from the pass rush.  As the Bills acquire more skill position talent (and a better OL) I think we'll see less running from Allen.

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11 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

wasn't footwork supposed to be the achilles heel of JA?  

 

yeah, right.

 

 

Let's not anoint him yet. Big improvement thus far but no victory laps. Next 4 games will be fun. Really hoping we can go into the off season feeling pretty secure about our Franchise QB.

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Allen’s potential has us all interested in game 13 of a 4-8 season.

 

I really believe the kid is going to finish strong and the Bills will be the talk of the NFL this coming off-season.

 

Calling it now,  Allen is going to beat the Patriots in a couple weeks.

Edited by Binghamton Beast

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On ‎12‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 9:41 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This video is exactly why I don't listen to anything he says.

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4 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

Allen’s potential has us all interested in game 13 of a 4-8 season.

 

I really believe the kid is going to finish strong and the Bills will be the talk of the NFL this coming off-season.

 

Calling it now,  Allen is going to beat the Patriots in a couple weeks.

I don’t know about that but I’m interested to see what Belichick schemes up to try and stop Allen! 

Baldy is right he is fun to watch and it’s great to have a Qb like that in Buffalo! Do we have a superstar in the making here??? I was skeptical of Allen as far as accuracy and whether he was athletic enough to move and extend plays! Hah what a joke! This guy abused the Phins especially Alonso! He shocked them. Players, coaches and fans. They won the game but boy was there a bad case of Qb envy afterwards!!

 

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On 12/5/2018 at 9:24 AM, ScottLaw said:

I've said I was impressed with Allen. It was his best game. The potential is intriguing. He reminds me a bit of Rodgers.

 

Not sure what you wanted me to see? He still bailed from the pocket too early on that last play and stares at the rush and is erratic with his throws too often. Hopefully  with a better line and more experience that doesn't happen nearly as often. 

Can you blame him? He is under pressure on over half his dropbacks...

 

That being said he is starting to make good throws to his 2nd, 3rd and even 4th options on plays...something that wasn't happening at all before he was hurt...its almost as if the game slowed down for him at some point...maybe Anderson was able to give him some pointers or tricks or whatever but its almost night and day watching him since he has come back.

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On 12/5/2018 at 9:15 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Allen played great on Sunday. 

 

His scrambling ability is incredible and he's pretty good as a passer when he can let it rip. His touch passes and deep balls aren't very good, but with practice they should get better (particularly the deep ball). Allen has missed numerous deep balls this year to wide open receivers. He needs to learn to put more air under the ball and throw it to where his guy can round off his route, allowing him to be less precise. 

 

For example, on the deep ball to Foster, he doesn't need to throw it to the goal line right out in front of Foster. Throw it towards the very middle of the field or even the left hash, and let Foster adjust to the ball and round off his route at the end. That should come with more practice. 

 

I think Allen himself will tell you he missed that one terribly.

 

The Bills might have something in this Robert Foster though.

 

Zay and Foster could be keepers amongst the young WR’s.

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On 12/5/2018 at 10:33 AM, PolishPrince said:

I like how Baldy at the end points out that its Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn chasing Allen in the backfield, and they really dont even come close to getting him lol. 

Hasn't Wake usually had good games against us in the past? I cant think of many QB's that would survive behind our OLine vs Wake and Quinn....

 

Also its going to be really interesting seeing what teams will do to spy Allen in the future... so far LBers dont work. Do they start spying with Safeties? I feel like most will struggle to tackle Josh unless they trip him or somehow catch him at a straight angle with speed built up (assuming Josh doesnt dodge it). Do they start spying with 2 LBers? If they do it should start opening a lot more short/intermediate routes.... the rest of this season will be as interesting as it gets for a team with no playoff hope.

 

Id blitz him every play. He’s not shown he can get it out quick and we know the line is meh

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On 12/5/2018 at 12:39 PM, Utah John said:

 

I asked that question, who still thinks we drafted the wrong Josh, last week.  Got nothing but crickets.  This guy is going to be really good.

 

 

I'm no cricket and I'm going to continue to give the correct answer.

 

It's too early to say, and that will be true for quite a while now.

 

Judging only by what we've seen so far, Allen has absolutely been better overall but Rosen has passed about as well with arguably an even weaker OL and offensive personnel overall. Allen has better momentum since he came back from his time on the bench. But neither one has passed well with consistency.

 

But the bottom line is that it is simply too early.

 

 

OP, thanks for posting that. It was fun to watch.

Edited by Thurman#1

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11 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

I think Allen himself will tell you he missed that one terribly.

 

The Bills might have something in this Robert Foster though.

 

Zay and Foster could be keepers amongst the young WR’s.

 

Foster looks like a good situational deep threat, #3 type guy. Jones looks like he could be a #2 guy. 

 

We still need an Alpha WR though who defenses have to account for, but I agree the WR no longer looks like it needs a total overhaul. We really just need a true #1 guy. 

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15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Foster looks like a good situational deep threat, #3 type guy. Jones looks like he could be a #2 guy. 

 

We still need an Alpha WR though who defenses have to account for, but I agree the WR no longer looks like it needs a total overhaul. We really just need a true #1 guy. 

WR does appear less dire than it did a few weeks ago. On the other hand, o-line needs at least three new starters, imo.

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Allen will never be an elite level Passer from the pocket, I think at best he'll be ok.  Which is fine with me.  Where he will make a name for himself will be out of the pocket, similar to that of Rodgers, Russel Wilson and Big Ben.   That's where he will become an elite QB, making plays from outside of the pocket.    

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