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Josh Allen will be a 2020 NFL MVP candidate... if our OC allows it

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7 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I think Daboll in the booth and the no huddle and the new base offense with three WR and Singletary are all huge factors in Josh’s ascension. It’s simpler, faster, spread out defense, and strong run game. Josh is way better in this kind of offense. The Lee Smith offense was nonsense and I blame that on Daboll. You have to let Josh be Josh, plus not having Singletary those 3-4 games was huge loss. 

Yup.  Singletary's emergence as a feature back and Daboll's trust in him to make plays have really paved the way for Josh to be a more mature QB that doesn't need to make rash plays that are very low percentage.   If Daboll had understood this in the Cleveland game, we would have won that game

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13 hours ago, ganesh said:

Yup.  Singletary's emergence as a feature back and Daboll's trust in him to make plays have really paved the way for Josh to be a more mature QB that doesn't need to make rash plays that are very low percentage.   If Daboll had understood this in the Cleveland game, we would have won that game

Yep. I give Daboll credit for learning. And the players love him. The story from Beasley about the TD play, which he liked to run at SMU eight years ago that he lobbied Daboll to use, Daboll looked at the SMU film, and then put it in the playbook is a terrific story and tribute. But he still has made a lot of mistakes. He's got it going now, and hopefully it will continue.

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I think the OP still has a chance to be right here. If the Bills beat the Ravens next Sunday and Allen has just an average game by his standards I think he could crack the top 10. If Bills win and Allen has a good game he could be on the short list of 5 or so players. 

 

-Jackson

-Wilson

-McCaffery

-Watson

-??Allen??

 

Not to get ahead of myself but if the Bills somehow win out to finish 13-3 then yeah, Allen will be an MVP candidate without question. Heck, he could win it depending on the stats he were to put up in those victories and the momentum from beating Lamar Jackson,  Brady and Dak on a national stage. Talk about coming out of nowhere. But it is similar to how he finished last season on a strong run too.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Yep. I give Daboll credit for learning. And the players love him. The story from Beasley about the TD play, which he liked to run at SMU eight years ago that he lobbied Daboll to use, Daboll looked at the SMU film, and then put it in the playbook is a terrific story and tribute. But he still has made a lot of mistakes. He's got it going now, and hopefully it will continue.

 

 

Allen is just incredibly comfortable in this style of offense.   The feeling I had when Allen hit Singletary for that 14 yard pass on 3rd down late was the feeling I got watching Kelly run no-huddle in that playoff game in Cleveland.   He was making it look easy.  Allen is in his element right now and while I don't think this was the original plan,  yeah Daboll deserves credit for not being stubborn and instead adapting to what this group can do well.   

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3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Allen is just incredibly comfortable in this style of offense.   The feeling I had when Allen hit Singletary for that 14 yard pass on 3rd down late was the feeling I got watching Kelly run no-huddle in that playoff game in Cleveland.   He was making it look easy.  Allen is in his element right now and while I don't think this was the original plan,  yeah Daboll deserves credit for not being stubborn and instead adapting to what this group can do well.   


That play was next level.  He was in the zone yesterday and you can tell he’s getting more and more comfortable in this offense.  I guess the benefit of playing New England twice per year is that it gives you multiple chances to learn about your weak spots as a quarterback, especially for an introspective player like Josh who not only wants to be great but specifically wants to model himself after number 12.

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22 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

A blowout vs the ravens could put him in the mix as far fetched as it sounds 

 

Have to be a hell of a blowout.... This would be a good year for the late run, as there is no real clear cut #1 and him ascending as maybe some others (Russell/Lamar) come down a bit would make it possible... That being said, can you imagine the hooplah from certain people if a white QB who is a joke in the eyes of the media and a racist in the eyes of the PC crowd, swoops in and steals the MVP from a predominately colored QB group?... I almost think the NFL would refuse that, even if he went crazy these last four weeks.

 

 

Also, as for the overall idea of him being MVP, National perception is a huge part of MVP, and most people are just waking up to the fact that he isn't a joke (thanks to the bs media that's been pushing that narrative since before he was drafted). If this was week 9 and that game happened and he balled out the rest of the way, that's another story. 

Edited by whatdrought
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Allen has played at least 1 more game than every other QB than Dak, but as of this moment, he has the 5th most total TDs in the NFL.

 

He also has the longest streak of consecutive games among all QBs in the NFL with multiple TDs.

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3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I think the OP still has a chance to be right here. If the Bills beat the Ravens next Sunday and Allen has just an average game by his standards I think he could crack the top 10. If Bills win and Allen has a good game he could be on the short list of 5 or so players. 

 

-Jackson

-Wilson

-McCaffery

-Watson

-??Allen??

 

Not to get ahead of myself but if the Bills somehow win out to finish 13-3 then yeah, Allen will be an MVP candidate without question. Heck, he could win it depending on the stats he were to put up in those victories and the momentum from beating Lamar Jackson,  Brady and Dak on a national stage. Talk about coming out of nowhere. But it is similar to how he finished last season on a strong run too.

 

 

Don't forget Michael Thomas of the Saints. He is on pace to breaking the NFL Season record for Catches and possibly get to 2000 yards.

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5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Great prediction!

 

interesting that he had more yds and completion percentage in the first 6 games. However TDs and interceptions are more important and shows there is more to winning than stats.

 

 

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Still don't think there's any way he'll even be up for consideration unless they somehow win out these next several games, or at least beat everyone but the Patriots.

After that, stats will get in his way. Alex Smith was never up for MVP, regardless of record, putting up solid numbers, and not turning the ball over. 

Not trying to hate on him, but having a ton of multi-passing TD & 300+ yard passing games to go along with those wins is what gets you in the MVP conversation. Putting up respectable but not eye-opening numbers isn't going to do it.

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Here's where QB's who have made MVP stand statistically:

2018: Patrick Mahomes - 66% comp. 5,097 yards, 50 TD's, 12 INT's, 6 Fumbles, 113.8 Passer Rating / 272 rushing yards, 2 TD's

2017: Tom Brady - 66.3% comp. 4,577 yards, 32 TD's, 8 INT's, 5 Fumbles, 102.8 Passer Rating

2016: Matt Ryan - 69.8% comp. 4,944 yards, 38 TD's, 7 INT's, 3 Fumbles, 117.1 Passer Rating

2015: Cam Newton - 59.8% comp. 3,837 yards, 35 TD's, 10 INT's, 1 Fumble, 99.4 Passer Rating / 636 rushing yards, 10 TD's, 3 Fumbles

2014: Aaron Rodgers - 65.6% comp. 4,381 yards, 38 TD's, 5 INT's, 7 Fumbles, 112.2 Passer Rating / 269 rushing yards, 2 TD's, 1 Fumble

2013: Peyton Manning - 68.3% comp. 5,477 yards, 55 TD's, 10 INT's, 5 Fumbles, 115.1 Passer Rating

2011: Aaron Rodgers - 68.3% comp. 4,643 yards, 45 TD's, 6 INT's, 4 Fumbles, 122.5 Passer Rating / 257 rushing yards, 3 TD's

2010: Tom Brady - 65.9% comp. 3,900 yards, 36 TD's, 4 INT's, 2 Fumbles, 111.0 Passer Rating

 

So the average is 66.3% comp. 4,607 yards passing, 41 TD's, 7 INT's, 4 Fumbles, and a 111.7 Passer Rating.

 

With 4 games left to play, he'd have to average over 500 passing yards and 6 passing TD's per game, throw 0 more INT's and have 0 more fumbles to even hit the average. He'd have to boost his completion percentage 5% and passer rating 23.4% by the end of the year as well. 

Even if you factored in his 8 rushing TD's, he'd still need to average over 4 TD's per game to just hit the average for an NFL MVP.  

The lowest amount of passing yards for any recent MVP season is Cam Newton's at 3,837, so in order for Allen to hit that, he'd need to average 311 yards per game the next 4 weeks...and considering he's yet to have even a single 300 yard game, that seems unlikely.

 

The next issue is passing TD's. Allen only has 16.... There's almost no way to defend that number in regards to MVP caliber players, but with 2017 Brady having the lowest with 32, Allen needs to straight up double his total in the next 4 games to reach that bar. Even if you count rushing TD's, he'd need 8 more, which is at least doable. Then again, Brady had 4,577 yards to go with it, and a 13-3 team that won another Super Bowl.

Cam Newton is the only one that didn't have a 100+ Passer Rating (barely), but he put up 35 passing TD's and 10 rushing TD's (along with leading his team to the Super Bowl). Allen isn't close to 45 total TD's, doesn't have the passing or rushing yards (though if he goes crazy the next several weeks could gain 200+ rush yards to at least reach that number).

Point being, to be an MVP candidate (much less than being named the actual MVP), he would've had to put up monster numbers AND be winning a ton of games. He's playing great for US, but historically & for the league? Not even close to that conversation.

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regardless of whether or not Josh makes the MVP conversation at this point, he is definitely trending in the right direction. there were legitimate concerns coming into the league as to whether or not he would live up to his considerable potential. not to say that he has arrived but where he is right now is a good sign that yes, he is going to be that franchise QB. 

 

as another poster said, perhaps the prognostication was a year early.

Edited by Foxx
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6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Still don't think there's any way he'll even be up for consideration unless they somehow win out these next several games, or at least beat everyone but the Patriots.

After that, stats will get in his way. Alex Smith was never up for MVP, regardless of record, putting up solid numbers, and not turning the ball over. 

Not trying to hate on him, but having a ton of multi-passing TD & 300+ yard passing games to go along with those wins is what gets you in the MVP conversation. Putting up respectable but not eye-opening numbers isn't going to do it.

 

He doesn't have to win it. He just has to be in the conversation. Not sure how that was technically defined but typically there are members of the sports reporting world that put out top 10 MVP candidate lists. If Allen ends up #9 or #10 on a couple lists I would say that qualifies. Even if he technically receives no actual votes. But yeah to actually win it or be in legitimate conversation with the current top two in Wilson and Jackson,  then Allen and the Bills would need to win out giving them huge victories over the leagues currently presumed two best teams and one MVP candidate. And Allen would need to finish out the final four games continuing his streak of 2+ TDs per game. Maybe even opening that to 2.5 - 3 TDs per game all while winning out.

 

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It's kind of a shame, because if Allen had played in the first 6 games like he has played in the last 6 games, he'd probably already be in the conversation. He's playing very well now, and this is the point of the season where you want your QB to be in the zone.

 

Anyway, there's really no chance of him getting the MVP and I don't think there ever really was. But next year...

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8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Still don't think there's any way he'll even be up for consideration unless they somehow win out these next several games, or at least beat everyone but the Patriots.

After that, stats will get in his way. Alex Smith was never up for MVP, regardless of record, putting up solid numbers, and not turning the ball over. 

Not trying to hate on him, but having a ton of multi-passing TD & 300+ yard passing games to go along with those wins is what gets you in the MVP conversation. Putting up respectable but not eye-opening numbers isn't going to do it.

 

I agree he's still a longshot, but I think what he did on a national stage on Thursday made it so he at least has a shot.

 

I fear we're going to get pummeled by the Ravens next Sunday like everyone else is.  If that happens and Allen plays poorly or even mediocre, that shot flies out the window.

 

But hell, any given Sunday, right?

 

If Allen plays like he has the last few games--or probably even statistically better--against Baltimore and we win, this gets real.

 

That game terrifies me, though.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Endzone view

 

This play...

Thx for that. So good on so many levels. The little step up before he starts running to avoid the LDE I hadn't noticed before. Just a huge play in the game too as far as momentum and confidence goes. What a pass. 

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13 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Thx for that. So good on so many levels. The little step up before he starts running to avoid the LDE I hadn't noticed before. Just a huge play in the game too as far as momentum and confidence goes. What a pass. 


I have been waiting 25 years for that play.  In his own endzone no less.

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Here's the stat I like -- from NFL.com, sorted by QB rating. And yes, one is on the way up, the other is on the way down ...

37 Tom Brady NE QB 273 439 62.2 39.9 2,942 6.7 267.5 15 5 144 32.8 59 45 4 18 88.5
38 Josh Allen BUF QB 225 366 61.5 30.5 2,591 7.1 215.9 16 8 124 33.9 51 39 5 27 88.3

 

And maybe even better, fivethirtyeight.com's current QB ELO rankings ... notice who has moved into the lead in the AFC East!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/

 

Edited by The Frankish Reich

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