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transplantbillsfan

Josh Allen will be a 2019 NFL MVP candidate

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20 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I hope you are right in that he has that Goff/Wentz like second year where he breaks out. I think the team will upgrade the Offensive talent around Allen greatly (with the cap space and another draft class they certainly have the tools to do so.) But I think Allen's progression won't be quite as dramatic. I could see him being more like the Bears QB who takes a nice significant step forward in year 2. 

 

Me too, and you know what? That is okay. Trubisky has had a pretty good year. If Allen matched that next season I'd be more than satisfied we are on the right path.

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On 12/3/2018 at 3:33 AM, CuddyDark said:

He's gotta improve as a passer first. Teams will scout him and play him as a runner and force him to make throws. Can he make plays from the pocket will determine his future. 

 

Well, that's the beauty of the offseason: Allen can work on his game.

 

But it's not like he can't make plays from the pocket... pretty clear he can do that.  I expect a revamped offensive line will be the difference in actually providing him with that pocket more consistently.

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https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/05/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-josh-allen/

What Pro Football Focus analysis says about Josh Allen's progress

Josh Allen – like nearly every rookie QB – had some ups and downs in his first taste of the NFL.

 

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Allen ranked 38th out of 44 QBs who saw at least 100 offensive snaps with a 51.4 overall PFF grade, a grade that falls into a tier we consider to be "below average."

 

But over the last two weeks, 33 quarterbacks have been on the field for at least 50 offensive snaps, and Allen leads all of them with a 90.6 overall grade over that stretch. He’s done that with his arm (his 82.9 passing grade over the last two weeks ranks third) and his legs (his 87.1 rushing grade ranks first).

...

 

The seventh-overall pick ranked last among QBs from Weeks 1-11 with just a 64.7 adjusted completion percentage (adjusted completion percentage accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and occasions where a hit on the QBs release sends the ball sailing). He ranked 26th with a 3.4 big-time throw percentage (BTTs are our higher-graded throws, throwing a 10-yard hitch to pick up a first down will earn a QB a positive grade, but hitting a receiver 40-yards downfield in stride is going to earn him a higher one), while also posting the sixth-highest turnover worthy play percentage at 4.2 percent.

 

In summation: In the first six games, Allen wasn’t accurate, he wasn’t making those “wow” throws at even an average rate when compared to the rest of the league and he was putting the ball in harm’s way at a high rate. That’s not great.

 

The Allen of the last two weeks has been a different QB.

 

Allen posted the highest overall grade of his young career – up to that point – in Buffalo’s win vs. Jacksonville, earning a 79.1 overall grade to go with a 77.7 passing grade (which was also a career high).

 

Then he went out this past week in Miami and topped that performance. Allen earned an elite 90.8 overall grade against the Dolphins to go with an 80.0 passing grade and a 91.0 rushing grade, all three being career-best grades.

...

 

One of Allen’s biggest improvements as a passer has been on downfield throws.

 

From Weeks 1-11, 39 quarterbacks attempted at least 25 passes on throws that traveled at least 10 yards in the air. Allen ranked 36th among them with a 52.5 PFF passing grade on those throws and he ranked 29th with an 8.2 big-time throw percentage to go with a 9.8 turnover-worthy play percentage, the sixth worst among that group.

 

Since Week 12, 30 quarterbacks have attempted at least 10 passes that traveled at least 10 yards in the air, and the Bills rookie leads all of them with 35 attempts of at least 10 yards. Allen ranks eighth among that group with an 87.1 PFF passing grade on such throws, eighth with a 20.0 big-time throw percentage and his 5.7 turnover-worthy play rate is nearly half of what it was over his first six games.

...

 

He's not just looking to run when he gets out of the pocket either (whether that be on a designed rollout or because he’s been flushed out by pressure), making his legs an even bigger weapon. Twenty-five QBs over the past two weeks have attempted at least five passes from outside the pocket, Allen leads all of them with a 94.4 PFF passing grade on such throws over that stretch and he ranks second with three big-time throws while not having a single turnover worthy play out of the pocket.

 

If Josh Allen can continue to build off these last two weeks as we close out the season there will – rightfully – be plenty of optimism surrounding the Bills heading into 2019.

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On 12/4/2018 at 12:33 AM, CuddyDark said:

He's gotta improve as a passer first. Teams will scout him and play him as a runner and force him to make throws. Can he make plays from the pocket will determine his future. 

 

Once the OL issues are sorted I think it will change. The stat in another thread showing that he is the most hurried passer in the NFL says something. Some guys will tell you that other QBs have gotten to 60% with the same personnel. Those guys have had the benefit of several seasons of experience Even if it is on the bench you still get training camps and practice to home your skills. I give them Barkley had a good game but the others have been far... Far from good.

 

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Today only made me more bullish on this.

 

He takes losses as hard as anybody:

 

And he's aware that being primarily a "running QB" isn't sustainable:

 

Although I gotta say, the worst hits he's taking are from the pocket because of poor blocking. He's been a pretty smart runner.

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On ‎12‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 1:42 PM, billsbackto81 said:

MVP? 

 

I'll settle for Pro Bowl selection.

Tyrod Taylor went on to Pro Bowl... Wont do wont do.

 

10-6  -   11-5 into the playoffs making it legit will do fine.

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

One can really get the feel for that from his pressers.  He understands the intricacies of football.  He just needs more experience with both his receivers and with understanding route concepts and progressions.  

 

I'm not sure if he'll ever be Brady/Rodgers accurate, but I don't think he needs to be on that level of accuracy to be successful.  He has other tools that the other guys just don't have.  

Edited by Capco

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8 hours ago, Capco said:

 

One can really get the feel for that from his pressers.  He understands the intricacies of football.  He just needs more experience with both his receivers and with understanding route concepts and progressions.  

 

I'm not sure if he'll ever be Brady/Rodgers accurate, but I don't think he needs to be on that level of accuracy to be successful.  He has other tools that the other guys just don't have.  

 

I think the comparison is a much more athletic Big Ben.

 

Like Ben, Allen will sling it and inevitably turn the ball over. But he'll be fun to watch.

 

His ceiling is higher than Roethlisberger, though. That doesn't mean he's going to reach it.

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4 minutes ago, buffalobillswin said:

Let's start with completing more than 50% of your passes, then we can talk about the MVP 

He does that already.

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On 12/5/2018 at 4:19 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/05/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-josh-allen/

What Pro Football Focus analysis says about Josh Allen's progress

Josh Allen – like nearly every rookie QB – had some ups and downs in his first taste of the NFL.

 

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Allen ranked 38th out of 44 QBs who saw at least 100 offensive snaps with a 51.4 overall PFF grade, a grade that falls into a tier we consider to be "below average."

 

But over the last two weeks, 33 quarterbacks have been on the field for at least 50 offensive snaps, and Allen leads all of them with a 90.6 overall grade over that stretch. He’s done that with his arm (his 82.9 passing grade over the last two weeks ranks third) and his legs (his 87.1 rushing grade ranks first).

...

 

The seventh-overall pick ranked last among QBs from Weeks 1-11 with just a 64.7 adjusted completion percentage (adjusted completion percentage accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and occasions where a hit on the QBs release sends the ball sailing). He ranked 26th with a 3.4 big-time throw percentage (BTTs are our higher-graded throws, throwing a 10-yard hitch to pick up a first down will earn a QB a positive grade, but hitting a receiver 40-yards downfield in stride is going to earn him a higher one), while also posting the sixth-highest turnover worthy play percentage at 4.2 percent.

 

In summation: In the first six games, Allen wasn’t accurate, he wasn’t making those “wow” throws at even an average rate when compared to the rest of the league and he was putting the ball in harm’s way at a high rate. That’s not great.

 

The Allen of the last two weeks has been a different QB.

 

Allen posted the highest overall grade of his young career – up to that point – in Buffalo’s win vs. Jacksonville, earning a 79.1 overall grade to go with a 77.7 passing grade (which was also a career high).

 

Then he went out this past week in Miami and topped that performance. Allen earned an elite 90.8 overall grade against the Dolphins to go with an 80.0 passing grade and a 91.0 rushing grade, all three being career-best grades.

...

 

One of Allen’s biggest improvements as a passer has been on downfield throws.

 

From Weeks 1-11, 39 quarterbacks attempted at least 25 passes on throws that traveled at least 10 yards in the air. Allen ranked 36th among them with a 52.5 PFF passing grade on those throws and he ranked 29th with an 8.2 big-time throw percentage to go with a 9.8 turnover-worthy play percentage, the sixth worst among that group.

 

Since Week 12, 30 quarterbacks have attempted at least 10 passes that traveled at least 10 yards in the air, and the Bills rookie leads all of them with 35 attempts of at least 10 yards. Allen ranks eighth among that group with an 87.1 PFF passing grade on such throws, eighth with a 20.0 big-time throw percentage and his 5.7 turnover-worthy play rate is nearly half of what it was over his first six games.

...

 

He's not just looking to run when he gets out of the pocket either (whether that be on a designed rollout or because he’s been flushed out by pressure), making his legs an even bigger weapon. Twenty-five QBs over the past two weeks have attempted at least five passes from outside the pocket, Allen leads all of them with a 94.4 PFF passing grade on such throws over that stretch and he ranks second with three big-time throws while not having a single turnover worthy play out of the pocket.

 

If Josh Allen can continue to build off these last two weeks as we close out the season there will – rightfully – be plenty of optimism surrounding the Bills heading into 2019.

 

Great post.   Unless of course you feel PFF is clueless.  Haha! 

Edited by nedboy7

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Seems unlikely.

 

To win the MVP he'll need 4,500 yards of offense and over 35 TDs to go along with at least 12 wins.

 

Let's start with having a QB Rating above 90. That would represent a huge improvement. 

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And here's another reason I don't think this whole criticism of Allen's running is fair in the sense of, "it can't last," or "he's going to get hurt if he keeps doing this!"

 

Well, the Bills don't have an offensive strategy where they're designing runs for him.  The vast majority of his runs are his choice on scrambles, unlike Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.

 

According to Steve Palazzolo at PFF:

QB rushing yards:

Josh Allen: 490 total yards

Designed runs: 89

Scrambles: 401

 

Lamar Jackson: 469 total yards

Designed runs: 418

Scrambles: 51

 

Yes, I understand that it was the same situation for Taylor regarding Designed Runs vs. Scrambles, but I think everyone can see that Allen makes passes Taylor never would, both throws he's just willing to make and also throws he simply can make.

 

The point there is more about Cam Newton, who's oft-injured.  And Cam Newton has been in an offense throughout his career where most of his rushing yards are off designed runs.

 

I think it's those plays that are more likely to get a QB hurt.

 

I'm fine with Allen getting pressured, seeing an open field in front of him, running and picking up the 1st down and then sliding the way he's been doing.  

 

That's such an incredible part of his game and I don't know why anyone would want to diminish it.

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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/making-a-case-for-josh-allen-as-the-nfls-best-rookie-quarterback-over-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson/

Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

Here's a hot take for you: all five of the first-round quarterbacks taken in the most recent NFL draft are actually going to end up being good. It's probably a cold take, but it's a lot less likely to happen than one or two of them being good and the rest being trash. 

...

"Right now, Baker's playing the best, but I just feel like Josh Allen, he oozes so much potential. Have you seen what he's doing? First off, he's 3-5 as a starter with the Bills. Do you know how bad ... they are not good. They are so far removed from the team they were last year with the things they've done and changed. He has given that team and city hope. He is so good. And he has so much upside. I would rank the rookie quarterbacks in so far as they've performed this year: Baker, Josh Allen, Lamar [Jackson], Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen."

...

But Allen, to Quinn, separates himself because he's doing more in Buffalo with the least.

...

 

"Allen to me is the one who people say is not very accurate. I watched his game because I've got the call on Lions-Bills coming up this week. And there are a lot of dropped passes. There were a couple I watched literally bounce off right between the numbers," Quinn continued. "People are going to knock this guy for his accuracy? Are they watching film and checking out his completion percentage and his adjusted completion percentage? Who's even grading that? Is it some guy who's ever played football? Or is it some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement? 

"Either way, I watched him and I feel like he'll continually get better. And as that team gets better around him and he has some help, like a running game. I think he's the guy right now who you can see why the Bills took him No. 7 overall."

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3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Have you seen what he's doing? First off, he's 3-5 as a starter with the Bills. Do you know how bad ... they are not good.

lmao

"3-5? 3-5?? DO YOU KNOW HOW BAD THE BILLS AR-.. they're not good I'll put it that way. A wondrous achievement being 3-5"

Edited by PetermanThrew5Picks

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5 hours ago, buffalobillswin said:

Oh right, he's at 52.4%. Move over Drew Brees, JA coming for your completion % record

You set the bar low at 50%

Not me.

 

 

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6 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Seems unlikely.

 

To win the MVP he'll need 4,500 yards of offense and over 35 TDs to go along with at least 12 wins.

 

Let's start with having a QB Rating above 90. That would represent a huge improvement. 

 

I think Allen will have 4,500 yards of combined offense.

 

I think Allen will have at least 35 combined TDs.

 

I think we win 12 games with our 1st divisional title in 2 decades.

 

QB rating above 90, too.

 

 

MVP discussion.  Not saying he'll be MVP, though.

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On 12/3/2018 at 1:39 AM, Aussie Joe said:

Just win games and ultimately the Championship..

 

Him winning MVP is no second prize for me..

 

 

Right you are, sir.  MVP would be nice icing on the cake for a championship year though.  At least there's no doubt he's our best chance at getting back to the glory years we've had since, well the glory years. 

 

All the haters who keep riding that "50% completion rate" line b.s. are just in denial.  They keep running their mouths about how he's going to fail when he's already succeeding.  Let's see how great he can be when he actually has 1. an offensive line that could block a high school JV line (and OL coach), 2. more than 2 talented receivers, and a starting TE and backups worth half a crap.  When he doesn't have to literally put the whole offense on his shoulders every single game, he won't have to make those same mistakes.  And he's already shown he's can learn and develop very quickly.  You have to put his pre-NFL football experience in perspective.  He went to a high school that nobody heard of or cared about whatsoever and play college in Wyoming of all places.  Can we please remember this when we're critical of him.  With that in proper perspective, he's shown tremendous growth already.  The Bills brass are already 100% sure they made the right move and the rest of our division is not looking forward to facing him for the next 5-10 years, regardless of what happened this past Sunday.

 

But I get where the OP is going here and why he's so excited.  I can feel it too, and the thought has crossed my mind a few times.  Anyone who watches him can see the potential is all there.  MVP would be great.  But he's going to improve and he's going to be very, very good.  How long have we been waiting for that?

Edited by Generic Screen Name 2
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14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think Allen will have 4,500 yards of combined offense.

 

I think Allen will have at least 35 combined TDs.

 

I think we win 12 games with our 1st divisional title in 2 decades.

 

QB rating above 90, too.

 

 

MVP discussion.  Not saying he'll be MVP, though.

 

As I said, seems pretty unlikely. 

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