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transplantbillsfan

Josh Allen will be a 2019 NFL MVP candidate

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I'd throw some money on Allen if I were in Vegas with those odds.

 

I'm amazed Carson Wentz is so high up there.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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On 4/22/2019 at 9:13 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't feel sorry for "having" to repeat your nonsense. It's what you do, whether I'm here or not. Feel free.

 

Yeah, you watched a lot of passes. And then you divided them up into a system you made up based on catchability, which doesn't say much about accuracy. You did a tremendous amount of work, but it didn't address accuracy well.

 

You're right that Josh Allen has an accuracy problem. You're wrong that it's typical. It's atypical. Very atypical, in fact. 

 

Among QBs with 200 or more throws, he's 35th in completion percentage. Nobody with 200 or more throws is below him. The next guy below him in terms of throws is Tyrod, with 85. The next guy below him is DeShone Kizer. Except for Kizer and Tyrod, nobody else throwing at that level of completion percentage or below was allowed to throw more than 17 passes. That's not just rookies, it includes all passers last year. (Same would have been true if you put his stats in with everyone from 2017 and 2016 as well. Would've been last. I didn't go back any further.)

 

 

 

 

As I said, it's early in his career, he could change. Especially if he manages to work on his mechanics enough to get them downloaded deep into muscle memory, the way that Mahomes was able to do with his rookie year off.

 

 

 

UGH!  Mahomes was a high completion pct thrower in college...and his mechanics have NOT changed.....his "bad mechanics" are what lazy analysts have to say about how Mahomes throws from non traditional platforms.....Mahomes does have an occaisional throw where you can certainly tell that he believed in his arm so much that he didn't step into the throw like he should...that doesn't happen very often....but his "mechanics" didn't change his off year....he still has what many would consider to be awful mechanics....doesn't matter...he's "accurate" from anywhere, any platform......  

 

Two things keep bothering me about Allens completion PCT....1.  All other Bills QB's combined, last season with the same supporting cast...completed WAY higher completion pct.  2.  Allen had/has an established track record.....a LARGE sample size from JUCO and COLLEGE of not having a high completion pct.  His first year in the NFL....he completed at a pct that you'd expect based on his past performances.  

 

I'm willing to see what Allen does with a better cast and a year of seasoning and coaching....I don't deny he is a gifted athlete and it's absolutely worthwhile to see if improvements can be made.....it's just kind of funny and frustrating at the effort put in to try and spin that Allen is an accurate passer.  

 

I am looking forward to see what happens this year....

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5 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

UGH!  Mahomes was a high completion pct thrower in college...and his mechanics have NOT changed.....his "bad mechanics" are what lazy analysts have to say about how Mahomes throws from non traditional platforms.....Mahomes does have an occaisional throw where you can certainly tell that he believed in his arm so much that he didn't step into the throw like he should...that doesn't happen very often....but his "mechanics" didn't change his off year....he still has what many would consider to be awful mechanics....doesn't matter...he's "accurate" from anywhere, any platform......  

 

Two things keep bothering me about Allens completion PCT....1.  All other Bills QB's combined, last season with the same supporting cast...completed WAY higher completion pct.  2.  Allen had/has an established track record.....a LARGE sample size from JUCO and COLLEGE of not having a high completion pct.  His first year in the NFL....he completed at a pct that you'd expect based on his past performances.  

 

I'm willing to see what Allen does with a better cast and a year of seasoning and coaching....I don't deny he is a gifted athlete and it's absolutely worthwhile to see if improvements can be made.....it's just kind of funny and frustrating at the effort put in to try and spin that Allen is an accurate passer.  

 

I am looking forward to see what happens this year....

Josh was at 53% while the other three combined for 59% - that's not what I would call 'WAY" higher. Also, Josh took many more shots downfield than the other QBs did. I'm still in the "waiting to see if he makes a jump forward" camp, but I think the pieces the Bills have placed around him on the OL and WR corps will tell the tale.

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21 hours ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

Josh was at 53% while the other three combined for 59% - that's not what I would call 'WAY" higher. Also, Josh took many more shots downfield than the other QBs did. I'm still in the "waiting to see if he makes a jump forward" camp, but I think the pieces the Bills have placed around him on the OL and WR corps will tell the tale.

This is why his comp. % will never be near tops in the league. The guy loves to chuck it down the field. Completing 50% of those(assuming passing 2nd and 3rd down)Is enough to keep the chains moving every set of downs. Most can be for TD's too 🤞. But, learning when and where to take those shots is what can make him into a great QB.

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Lol

Lamar Jackson is 60/1 - Guy is a marginal starter at best; better than Darnold at 75/1 and Kyler Murray at 75/1, this is stupid. 

 

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On 6/17/2019 at 9:19 AM, ChevyVanMiller said:

Josh was at 53% while the other three combined for 59% - that's not what I would call 'WAY" higher. Also, Josh took many more shots downfield than the other QBs did. I'm still in the "waiting to see if he makes a jump forward" camp, but I think the pieces the Bills have placed around him on the OL and WR corps will tell the tale.

....better protection and wrs that don't drop the ball will make that 53% a distant memory.  Let's not forget Jim Kelly didn't touch 60% until his 5TH year....

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On 6/13/2019 at 11:16 PM, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

The interesting thing to me about that list is that Josh is on there at all.  There are people out there who believe the kid has a shot.

 

Lamar Jackson at 60/1 is an LOL bet all the way, as is Kyler Murray at 75/1.

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5 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

We have 10 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 

 

Can we slow down. 

 

Carson Wentz had 16 TDs to 14 interceptions and Mitch Trubisky had 7 TDs and 7 INTs and Jared Goff had 5 TDs and 7 INTs in their rookie years and drastically improved in year 2.

 

It's coming... embrace it :thumbsup:

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it could be 10,000 to 1

 

complete waste of money

 

he's not winning league MVP

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7 hours ago, papazoid said:

it could be 10,000 to 1

 

complete waste of money

 

he's not winning league MVP

 

Didn't say he would, but he'll be a serious candidate for it.

7 hours ago, papazoid said:

it could be 10,000 to 1

 

complete waste of money

 

he's not winning league MVP

 

I'll throw $1 in, though.

 

So if Allen wins league MVP you'll give me $10,000?

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If I was to make a guess on MVP right now next year, I think the guy I like is:  Andrew Luck.  Colts could be very good this year, and with him finally having an OL and also being healthy, I think he is in store for a very good season.  

 

That being said, I still agree with the OP and believe Allen could have his name in the convo throughout the year...not as a serious threat to "win it" per se, but as a guy that gets mentioned along the way.  The main reason I believe this is because I think the Bills will be a double digit win team and that Allen will be a big part of that.  No chance his numbers will approach guys like Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc...but his dual threat abilities, a winning record, taking Bills to playoffs, etc will all lead to his name getting a mention here and there.  Just like several guys got mentioned last year even though it was clearly going to come down to either Mahomes or Brees.

 

I think Allen is going to be looking at around 3500 yards, 25 to 28 passing TD's with 500 to 600 yards rushing and 7 to 10 rushing TD's.  That will get him in the convo, especially if the Bills win 10 or 11 games and make the playoffs behind that performance.  

 

But I think Luck is looking at 4500+ yards, 38+ TDs and another 300 to 400 yards rushing and a 3 to 4 rushing TD's himself and the Colts will be a threat to be a 12 win team this year.   

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On 6/13/2019 at 8:16 PM, YoloinOhio said:

 

Allen's odds are cut off in that graphic. They are 150/1, tied for longest with several other sucker bets.

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1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

Allen's odds are cut off in that graphic. They are 150/1, tied for longest with several other sucker bets.

 

Okay.

 

So you'll throw in $150 to my $1?

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay.

 

So you'll throw in $150 to my $1?

Sure! I'll make that bet. And, I'll hold you to it! Allen gets MVP, I'll send you $150. He doesn't, and you send me a dollar.

FWIW, I hope I get to send you $150!

Edited by Rocky Landing

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If Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, that means the Bills are winning 12+ games.

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if he is still standing for the 16th game, and has improved during the season, that will be fine.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Sure! I'll make that bet. And, I'll hold you to it! Allen gets MVP, I'll send you $150. He doesn't, and you send me a dollar.

FWIW, I hope I get to send you $150!

seriously?

 

do you often make bets of such a lousy nature? 

 

can i get in on this too?

i suspect there are others who would like to take you up on this as well...

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13 minutes ago, Foxx said:

seriously?

 

do you often make bets of such a lousy nature? 

 

can i get in on this too?

i suspect there are others who would like to take you up on this as well...

I would only make this bet once, but if transplatbillsfan declines, and you're really willing to send me a dollar, sure. What not?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Sure! I'll make that bet. And, I'll hold you to it! Allen gets MVP, I'll send you $150. He doesn't, and you send me a dollar.

FWIW, I hope I get to send you $150!

 

I accept:beer:

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

:beer:

Yay! 🤝

I have a history of jinxing everything I call. If things follow my normal trajectory, I'll be owing you $150, and the Bills will go deep into the playoffs.

But, bear in mind... if Josh Allen doesn't gat named the League MVP, I will send you my address, and you will send me a dollar!

 

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