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transplantbillsfan

Josh Allen will be a 2019 NFL MVP candidate

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15 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... you think Lamar Jackson has a better shot...?

He would think Jesse Jackson has a better shot...

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8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No personal vendetta.  You're just a joke.  You make dire predictions all the time.  Why is a mystery.

 

Dire predictions are a joke. Especially when they’re regarding josh allen, who hasn’t even played 16 nfl games yet. What else is a joke? Starting threads stating he’s going to be a MVP candidate in his 2nd year when nothing, NOTHING, suggests he’ll approach that level yet. How many MVPs does aaron rodgers have in what, 14 years in the league? 2? This whole thread is a joke. 

 

Stop bumping homer threads.

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Just now, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Dire predictions are a joke. Especially when they’re regarding josh allen, who hasn’t even played 16 nfl games yet. What else is a joke? Starting threads stating he’s going to be a MVP candidate in his 2nd year when nothing, NOTHING, suggests he’ll approach that level yet. How many MVPs does aaron rodgers have in what, 14 years in the league? 2? This whole thread is a joke. 

 

Stop bumping homer threads.

Yes, I said above it's early to make such predictions.

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Just now, oldmanfan said:

Yes, I said above it's early to make such predictions.

 

Not faulting you at all.

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5 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Not faulting you at all.

Thanks.  I think we all need to avoid extremes.  Allen has a ways to go as a second year QB so making claims he's going to be the league MVP are over the top.  On the other hand, the constant negativity of some that he'll be terrible, or that nothing has been done to upgrade the offense when a new starting C, LG, RG, RT, TE, WR x 2, backup RB (a HOFer down the road), and the draft yet to come, smacks of just wanting to be willfully negative about anything this organization does.  

 

Some moves will pan out, some won't. That is the norm for GMs.  And young QBs have learning pains, also the norm.  Placing misguided anticipation on the kid is wrong.  Swearing he'll be great or terrible based on one pass, which we know will happen as soon as camp opens, is also wrong.  Let the kid play, let the others players play, let's actually get some data on this team before sounding the trumpets of joys or horns of sorrow.

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1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Jackson LOL. You did notice, I’m sure, that just about every move the Ravens have made is turning the clock back 40 years to a run-heavy offense, right? If Jackson ever sniffs the top 15 as a QB in this league I’ll be surprised. 

 

I didn't say it was very likely and I wasn't judging the individual QBs but their situations.  Jackson probably has a better chance than Allen simply because Baltimore has a better offense than the Bills.  That may change in 2019 but at present there's no proof that the Bills' FA moves will work out as well as hoped ... and that's true for all teams.  In order to be in the running for the league MVP, a QB has to put up big numbers on a team that wins lots of games.  I don't think the Bills are good enough on offense to enable Allen to do that. but neither are the Jets or Cards.  I do think that the Browns have enough talent on offense to help Mayfield put up big numbers  -- if he, like all the other 2018 QBs, continue to develop.

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say it was very likely and I wasn't judging the individual QBs but their situations.  Jackson probably has a better chance than Allen simply because Baltimore has a better offense than the Bills.  That may change in 2019 but at present there's no proof that the Bills' FA moves will work out as well as hoped ... and that's true for all teams.  In order to be in the running for the league MVP, a QB has to put up big numbers on a team that wins lots of games.  I don't think the Bills are good enough on offense to enable Allen to do that. but neither are the Jets or Cards.  I do think that the Browns have enough talent on offense to help Mayfield put up big numbers  -- if he, like all the other 2018 QBs, continue to develop.

 

So your opinion is based upon an assumption that the Bills failed in free agency to significantly improve the offense.  I think that's a premature assessment.  The Bills are likely to start the 2019 season with no fewer than SEVEN new starters on offense -- that's 64% of the lineup.  How can you or ANYONE predict success or failure for that group right now?

 

If we look at the end of last season the lasting impression from Josh Allen is a 5 TD performance in the finale.  He will go into minicamp and traning camp as the unquestioned starter, earning all key reps and building chemistry with his receivers.  He does not have to learn a new offense.  The Bills specifically addressed the most crucial piece of the OL -- center -- and have brought in talented bodies to compete all along the line.  While John Brown and Cole Beasley are not the "true #1 WR" some folks are clamoring for they are proven, productive, and reliable veterans.  Frank Gore is one of the best pass-blocking RBs around.

 

If you're a betting man (I am) I'd say the odds significantly favor improvement of the offense over no improvement.  This assessment is based in fact, not opinion.

 

My opinion is that Josh Allen's statistics will leave Lamar Jackson in the dust next season (and beyond).

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Just now, eball said:

 

So your opinion is based upon an assumption that the Bills failed in free agency to significantly improve the offense.  I think that's a premature assessment.  The Bills are likely to start the 2019 season with no fewer than SEVEN new starters on offense -- that's 64% of the lineup.  How can you or ANYONE predict success or failure for that group right now?

 

If we look at the end of last season the lasting impression from Josh Allen is a 5 TD performance in the finale.  He will go into minicamp and traning camp as the unquestioned starter, earning all key reps and building chemistry with his receivers.  He does not have to learn a new offense.  The Bills specifically addressed the most crucial piece of the OL -- center -- and have brought in talented bodies to compete all along the line.  While John Brown and Cole Beasley are not the "true #1 WR" some folks are clamoring for they are proven, productive, and reliable veterans.  Frank Gore is one of the best pass-blocking RBs around.

 

If you're a betting man (I am) I'd say the odds significantly favor improvement of the offense over no improvement.  This assessment is based in fact, not opinion.

 

My opinion is that Josh Allen's statistics will leave Lamar Jackson in the dust next season (and beyond).

 

I didn't say the Bills failed to significantly improve the offense.  Last season's offense was so pathetic, however, that an argument could be made for cutting the entire offense except for Allen and maybe 5 or 6 other players.  It simply did not have NFL caliber talent last year, and thinking that adding some decent but not great OLers and WRs is going to put the Bills offense on par with the big gun offenses like KC, NO, LA Rams, etc is just fantasy.  They literally had no offense last season except for Allen, and mostly Allen's running.  They may have ended up ranked as the worst offense in the NFL in 2018 if they hadn't kicked the crap out of a Miami team that was running for the bus.  As it was they were #31.  They have a long way just to get to "average".

 

Again, it's NOT about Allen vs Jackson.  It's about which QB is in a better situation because of the team around him -- and as of right now, Jackson is on the better team.

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5 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say the Bills failed to significantly improve the offense.  Last season's offense was so pathetic, however, that an argument could be made for cutting the entire offense except for Allen and maybe 5 or 6 other players.  It simply did not have NFL caliber talent last year, and thinking that adding some decent but not great OLers and WRs is going to put the Bills offense on par with the big gun offenses like KC, NO, LA Rams, etc is just fantasy.  They literally had no offense last season except for Allen, and mostly Allen's running.  They may have ended up ranked as the worst offense in the NFL in 2018 if they hadn't kicked the crap out of a Miami team that was running for the bus.  As it was they were #31.  They have a long way just to get to "average".

 

Again, it's NOT about Allen vs Jackson.  It's about which QB is in a better situation because of the team around him -- and as of right now, Jackson is on the better team.

 

Nah, they're not as far away as you think.  A competent OL and veteran receivers mean a lot, and that's what Beane has attempted to bring in.  I disagree that the Ravens have a better roster than the Bills at this moment (not last year).

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/nflspinzone.com/2019/04/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-now-set-success/amp/

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen is now set up for success

The Bills will have a totally reshaped offense come 2019, and it’s more than likely that it will be for the better. With two relatively large wide receiver signings in former Dallas Cowboy Cole Beasley and former Ravens speedster John Brown.

Along with that, Buffalo signed seven depth pieces on the offensive line, including Quinton Spain and former Cincinnati Bengals second-round pick, Jake Fisher. Not to mention, the Bills have great draft position come the NFL Draft.

 

...

 

Josh Allen is primed to make a leap in year two of his tenure in Buffalo. With accuracy problems he showed in college beginning to fade away, the 22-year old could bring the Bills near the forefront of the AFC East in 2019 (even if they might not beat the Patriots). The Bills need to hit on their draft picks, but with a solid free agency class in place already, they’re beginning to set Allen up for success.

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7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nflspinzone.com/2019/04/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-now-set-success/amp/

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen is now set up for success

The Bills will have a totally reshaped offense come 2019, and it’s more than likely that it will be for the better. With two relatively large wide receiver signings in former Dallas Cowboy Cole Beasley and former Ravens speedster John Brown.

Along with that, Buffalo signed seven depth pieces on the offensive line, including Quinton Spain and former Cincinnati Bengals second-round pick, Jake Fisher. Not to mention, the Bills have great draft position come the NFL Draft.

 

...

 

Josh Allen is primed to make a leap in year two of his tenure in Buffalo. With accuracy problems he showed in college beginning to fade away, the 22-year old could bring the Bills near the forefront of the AFC East in 2019 (even if they might not beat the Patriots). The Bills need to hit on their draft picks, but with a solid free agency class in place already, they’re beginning to set Allen up for success.

 

we are beating the Friggin Patriots !!

 

 

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On 4/8/2019 at 8:28 AM, billsfan1959 said:

He would think Jesse Jackson has a better shot...

 

..only with Sharpton in the backfield...........

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On 4/8/2019 at 6:01 PM, JoPar_v2 said:

 

Dire predictions are a joke. Especially when they’re regarding josh allen, who hasn’t even played 16 nfl games yet. What else is a joke? Starting threads stating he’s going to be a MVP candidate in his 2nd year when nothing, NOTHING, suggests he’ll approach that level yet. How many MVPs does aaron rodgers have in what, 14 years in the league? 2? This whole thread is a joke. 

 

Stop bumping homer threads.

OP only suggested that he can be a MVP Candidate...He didn't say he will win the MVP in his 2nd year.

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On 4/8/2019 at 8:35 PM, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say the Bills failed to significantly improve the offense.  Last season's offense was so pathetic, however, that an argument could be made for cutting the entire offense except for Allen and maybe 5 or 6 other players.  It simply did not have NFL caliber talent last year, and thinking that adding some decent but not great OLers and WRs is going to put the Bills offense on par with the big gun offenses like KC, NO, LA Rams, etc is just fantasy.  They literally had no offense last season except for Allen, and mostly Allen's running.  They may have ended up ranked as the worst offense in the NFL in 2018 if they hadn't kicked the crap out of a Miami team that was running for the bus.  As it was they were #31.  They have a long way just to get to "average".

 

Again, it's NOT about Allen vs Jackson.  It's about which QB is in a better situation because of the team around him -- and as of right now, Jackson is on the better team.

May be you meant  Jackson is in a better situation. 

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Posted (edited)
On ‎3‎/‎27‎/‎2019 at 8:48 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Allen doesn't have any very serious accuracy problem, unless you think most promising rookie QBs do. 

 

I can say with confidence that Allen is about as accurate a passer as all the the rookie QBs this year and Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were in their rookie years.

 

What Allen really needs to make strides on, more than anything, is his processing. And that's the beauty of an entire offseason working in the exact same offense.

 

Plus he needed the other 10 starters on offense to be massively upgraded, and it sure looks like McBeane have already done that.

 

 

 

As long as you badly twist any reasonable definition of "accuracy," then yeah, you're right about all this.

 

But that's what you have to do ... twist like a small python on a deer. Your definition of accuracy, as you've made clear, refers to throwing passes that are catchable. It's a stunningly dumb definition, because inside the very large range of catchable balls there are terrifically accurate balls that throw guys open and hit them in stride, and terrifically inaccurate balls that force guys to break the route, throw them into traffic, get them to jump and put their ribs at risk for no reason, throw just off the ground for no reason, and so on. Catchable balls go all the way from hyper-accurate to outright inaccurate and all along the spectrum in between. 

 

Dividing by whether a ball is catchable puts terrific balls together with middling and awful ones and mislabels them as successful. You're one of the ones that has gone on about how completion percentage isn't a good reflection of accuracy. True. But it's a lot better than catchable balls. Throwing a catchable ball generally means you've hit a target the size of a barn door.

 

You're right that he needs to make strides in processing. But also his accuracy. Which could happen, particularly if his mechanics improve. I'm still hopeful. Coming up on a second year plenty of QBs with problems see real improvements, though equally, plenty who make a leap still don't reach the level of franchise guy.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

As long as you badly twist any reasonable definition of "accuracy," then yeah, you're right about all this.

 

But that's what you have to do ... twist like a small python on a deer. Your definition of accuracy, as you've made clear, refers to throwing passes that are catchable. It's a stunningly dumb definition, because inside the very large range of catchable balls there are terrifically accurate balls that throw guys open and hit them in stride, and terrifically inaccurate balls that force guys to break the route, throw them into traffic, get them to jump and put their ribs at risk for no reason, throw just off the ground for no reason, and so on. Catchable balls go all the way from hyper-accurate to outright inaccurate and all along the spectrum in between. 

 

Dividing by whether a ball is catchable puts terrific balls together with middling and awful ones and mislabels them as successful. You're one of the ones that has gone on about how completion percentage isn't a good reflection of accuracy. True. But it's a lot better than catchable balls. Throwing a catchable ball generally means you've hit a target the size of a barn door.

 

You're right that he needs to make strides in processing. But also his accuracy. Which could happen, particularly if his mechanics improve. I'm still hopeful. Coming up on a second year plenty of QBs with problems see real improvements, though equally, plenty who make a leap still don't reach the level of franchise guy.

 

I'm sorry I keep having to repeat myself, but you kinda make it impossible not to:

 

Saying Allen has an accuracy problem is fine as long as you also acknowledge that it's not an atypical accuracy problem for rookie NFL QBs, at least as far as a sample size of Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, rookie Watson and rookie Wentz go.

 

Yep, Allen has some fine-tuning to do with his accuracy.

 

Luckily it's not really anything we need to worry much more about (and in some cases less than) the Jets, Browns, Cardinals (?), or Ravens do this offseason or the Texans did last offseason or the Eagles did 2 offseasons ago.

 

You can talk about twisting narratives with cute analogies all you want, but you're claiming Allen has a bigger accuracy problem than all those other guys do and/or more than the typical rookie QB.

 

I'm assuming you're saying this because of your blind faith in analysts, film watchers and "experts," PFF and ESPN stats and info in particular.

 

I watched the almost 2,600 combined passes for those 7 QBs and I can confidently say that while a number here or there you could argue about in terms of where to chart a handful of individual passes, having actually watched all those passes--and some, like Allen, going back through a 2nd and 3rd time-- I can say that anecdotally Allen very easily falls very much within the range of acceptable accuracy for a QB, including ball placement.  And disregarding even my previous catchable vs. uncatchable definitions that I broke down, having actually watched all 2,600 of those passes, I would put Allen's ball placement as a rookie above Watson's rookie season and the last 12 games of Wentz's rookie season.  Probably Rosen, too. Jackson's ball placement seemed to really benefit from being in a system where he threw to pretty wide open guys.  Darnold and especially Mayfield had better ball placement than Allen, and yet they also still threw just bad passes in the same range as Allen.

 

So while Allen had some work to do on his accuracy this offseason, looks luckily like he did just that and the Bills were fortunate that his "accuracy woes" his rookie year were no different than the typical NFL rookie... at least based on a sample size of 6 recent "successful" (to varying degrees) NFL rookie QBs.

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm sorry I keep having to repeat myself, but you kinda make it impossible not to:

 

Saying Allen has an accuracy problem is fine as long as you also acknowledge that it's not an atypical accuracy problem for rookie NFL QBs, at least as far as a sample size of Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, rookie Watson and rookie Wentz go.

 

Yep, Allen has some fine-tuning to do with his accuracy.

 

Luckily it's not really anything we need to worry much more about (and in some cases less than) the Jets, Browns, Cardinals (?), or Ravens do this offseason or the Texans did last offseason or the Eagles did 2 offseasons ago.

 

You can talk about twisting narratives with cute analogies all you want, but you're claiming Allen has a bigger accuracy problem than all those other guys do and/or more than the typical rookie QB.

 

I'm assuming you're saying this because of your blind faith in analysts, film watchers and "experts," PFF and ESPN stats and info in particular.

 

I watched the almost 2,600 combined passes for those 7 QBs and I can confidently say that while a number here or there you could argue about in terms of where to chart a handful of individual passes, having actually watched all those passes--and some, like Allen, going back through a 2nd and 3rd time-- I can say that anecdotally Allen very easily falls very much within the range of acceptable accuracy for a QB, including ball placement.  And disregarding even my previous catchable vs. uncatchable definitions that I broke down, having actually watched all 2,600 of those passes, I would put Allen's ball placement as a rookie above Watson's rookie season and the last 12 games of Wentz's rookie season.  Probably Rosen, too. Jackson's ball placement seemed to really benefit from being in a system where he threw to pretty wide open guys.  Darnold and especially Mayfield had better ball placement than Allen, and yet they also still threw just bad passes in the same range as Allen.

 

So while Allen had some work to do on his accuracy this offseason, looks luckily like he did just that and the Bills were fortunate that his "accuracy woes" his rookie year were no different than the typical NFL rookie... at least based on a sample size of 6 recent "successful" (to varying degrees) NFL rookie QBs.

 

 

Don't feel sorry for "having" to repeat your nonsense. It's what you do, whether I'm here or not. Feel free.

 

Yeah, you watched a lot of passes. And then you divided them up into a system you made up based on catchability, which doesn't say much about accuracy. You did a tremendous amount of work, but it didn't address accuracy well.

 

You're right that Josh Allen has an accuracy problem. You're wrong that it's typical. It's atypical. Very atypical, in fact. 

 

Among QBs with 200 or more throws, he's 35th in completion percentage. Nobody with 200 or more throws is below him. The next guy below him in terms of throws is Tyrod, with 85. The next guy below him is DeShone Kizer. Except for Kizer and Tyrod, nobody else throwing at that level of completion percentage or below was allowed to throw more than 17 passes. That's not just rookies, it includes all passers last year. (Same would have been true if you put his stats in with everyone from 2017 and 2016 as well. Would've been last. I didn't go back any further.)

 

 

 

 

As I said, it's early in his career, he could change. Especially if he manages to work on his mechanics enough to get them downloaded deep into muscle memory, the way that Mahomes was able to do with his rookie year off.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't feel sorry for "having" to repeat your nonsense. It's what you do, whether I'm here or not. Feel free.

 

Yeah, you watched a lot of passes. And then you divided them up into a system you made up based on catchability, which doesn't say much about accuracy. You did a tremendous amount of work, but it didn't address accuracy well.

 

You're right that Josh Allen has an accuracy problem. You're wrong that it's typical. It's atypical. Very atypical, in fact. 

 

Among QBs with 200 or more throws, he's 35th in completion percentage. Nobody with 200 or more throws is below him. The next guy below him in terms of throws is Tyrod, with 85. The next guy below him is DeShone Kizer. Except for Kizer and Tyrod, nobody else throwing at that level of completion percentage or below was allowed to throw more than 17 passes. That's not just rookies, it includes all passers last year. (Same would have been true if you put his stats in with everyone from 2017 and 2016 as well. Would've been last. I didn't go back any further.)

 

 

 

 

As I said, it's early in his career, he could change. Especially if he manages to work on his mechanics enough to get them downloaded deep into muscle memory, the way that Mahomes was able to do with his rookie year off.

 

Completion percentage does not equal accuracy or ball placement.

 

Completion percentage includes balls that should have been caught by an NFL WR

 

Add just those drops into his numbers and his completion percentage is almost 63%.

 

And I say "just those" because it leaves a number of passes out that should have been caught, like his pass to Andre Holmes in the Titans game that the inept Holmes let bounce right off his hands into the arms of a defender for an interception.

 

Completion percentage includes Throwaways and Spikes. Allen had a much higher percentage at Throwaways/Spikes than any other of the 6 QBs I looked at. He was 7.1%, Jackson was 6%, Rosen was 5.8% and you can keep going down the line.

 

Those incompletions have absolutely nothing to do with accuracy, but everything to do with decision making. From watching, they were due in large part to the combination of a porous offensive line and Allen's ability to elude pressure but not find anyone open... whatever that reason may have been. I think it's notable that the next 2 highest throwaway/spike percentages was another scrambler and another guy with a porous OL.

 

Same goes for passes that are spiked or batted at the line. 

 

Your logic of connecting Allen's completion percentage with his accuracy in this manner is surprising because you're often wrong, but usually you obfuscate so much that it makes it not worth the time to respond.

 

Here you're just so blatantly and overtly wrong and not hiding it that it's pretty easy to prove false.

 

I've never seen anyone enjoy playing Devil's Advocate on a sports message board as much as you do, Thurm. Who knows, maybe you've been doing it so long you yearn to be a real person rather than this Persona you've presented yourself as for years.

 

Or maybe you just had a bad day. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion percentage does not equal accuracy or ball placement.

 

Completion percentage includes balls that should have been caught by an NFL WR

 

Add just those drops into his numbers and his completion percentage is almost 63%.

 

And I say "just those" because it leaves a number of passes out that should have been caught, like his pass to Andre Holmes in the Titans game that the inept Holmes let bounce right off his hands into the arms of a defender for an interception.

 

Completion percentage includes Throwaways and Spikes. Allen had a much higher percentage at Throwaways/Spikes than any other of the 6 QBs I looked at. He was 7.1%, Jackson was 6%, Rosen was 5.8% and you can keep going down the line.

 

Those incompletions have absolutely nothing to do with accuracy, but everything to do with decision making. From watching, they were due in large part to the combination of a porous offensive line and Allen's ability to elude pressure but not find anyone open... whatever that reason may have been. I think it's notable that the next 2 highest throwaway/spike percentages was another scrambler and another guy with a porous OL.

 

Same goes for passes that are spiked or batted at the line. 

 

Your logic of connecting Allen's completion percentage with his accuracy in this manner is surprising because you're often wrong, but usually you obfuscate so much that it makes it not worth the time to respond.

 

Here you're just so blatantly and overtly wrong and not hiding it that it's pretty easy to prove false.

 

I've never seen anyone enjoy playing Devil's Advocate on a sports message board as much as you do, Thurm. Who knows, maybe you've been doing it so long you yearn to be a real person rather than this Persona you've presented yourself as for years.

 

Or maybe you just had a bad day. 

 

 

 

 

Preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-cisely. Completion percentage does not equal accuracy or ball placement.

 

But here's what you're missing again and again and again ... neither does your bull#### catchability obsession. In fact, it likely tells a good deal less about accuracy than completion percentage does.

 

 

As for playing devil's advocate, you're missing the point again. I'm not doing that. I'm pointing out a guy with a long long history of being wrong on this exact issue continuing his record forward and being wrong yet again, and in the same way.

 

Josh Allen had real accuracy issues. He will have a chance to improve. Hopefully he can do so.

Edited by Thurman#1

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9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-cisely. Completion percentage does not equal accuracy or ball placement.

 

But here's what you're missing again and again and again ... neither does your bull#### catchability obsession. In fact, it likely tells a good deal less about accuracy than completion percentage does.

 

Except it doesn't, and I pretty thoroughly explained to you why it doesn't.

 

Completion percentage includes a number of passes that are incomplete separate from ANY issue of accuracy. My "bull####" system accounted for those.

 

Try again.

 

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This thread is an embarrassment. Let Josh show that he's good enough to be in the top half of starters, which he isn't, before we even begin this conversation.

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Biggest mistake by McD last season, IMHO, was not starting Josh Allen from week one.  He lost valuable playing time sitting on the bench.

 

If McD and Daboll can successfully implement and execute a spread/air-raid offense, Josh - with an improved line and receiver corps - could have 50 TDs and 5000 yards.

 

He’s that talented.

 

(Flame away.)

.

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