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Josh Allen will be a 2019 NFL MVP candidate

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24 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I was implying that teams are going to use that gameplan because he's been most dangerous with his legs. He had a decent game against Detroit. Not great, but decent.

 

If I were devising a game plan for JA, I would focus on taking away his running lanes and his deep options. That's what I expect to see from teams next season. Making no prognostications on how he will handle it. Teams are essentially going to dare him to beat them with RB's/TE's/the underneath stuff. He's just gotta hit the gimmies to beat it.

Which if he does, combined with a hopefully significantly improved rushing attack component (I mean really, how can the run not improve over the train wreck that was this year?) would effectively unlock the deep passing lanes once again with play action...at least that's what could happen. Even in that Lions game, they were able to complete the deep ball in the 4th, and this postgame analysis also discusses a deep play to Croom that was open because the Lions expected a backside run to develop instead: 

"2. Late touch throw: The Bills were able to run out the clock over the last 2:50 thanks to another fine touch throw from Allen to tight end Jason Croom for a 25-yard gain. It was a second-and-9 play, and the Bills were in a running formation, with two tight ends on the field.

Croom credited offensive coordinator Brian Daboll with good timing.

“We had been running the same run play to the back-side all game,” Croom said. “It was really just Dabs calling the right play at the right time. That’s what they were expecting on the back side, the run. We just executed.”

Croom leaped over Quin for the catch.

“When the ball is there, I want Josh to know he can trust everyone who’s out there,” Croom said. “That’s Josh just putting it only where I can get it. That’s all I need for him to do.”"

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/16/robert-foster-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-detroit-lions-touchdown-analysis/

Edited by NoHuddleKelly12
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/curtisrush/2019/03/03/why-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen-should-be-better-in-his-sophomore-season/#512f66514aef

Why Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen Should Be Better In His Sophomore Season

...

 

From a historical perspective, there is much to be optimistic about for Allen heading into his sophomore season. Many highly touted quarterbacks saw improvements in their play during their second seasons. Not only did their pass completion rate improve, but it was obvious that they learned how to make better reads because they threw fewer interceptions.

 

Let's look at some of the bigger, first-round quarterback selections in NFL drafts going back 15 years to give us a good sample size.

 

Josh Allen should be in the following group because his rookie year was similar: his numbers were not off-the-charts impressive and therefore easier to build on.

...

NINE QBs WHO GOT BETTER IN YEAR 2

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

In Goff's rookie season in 2016, the first overall selection in the NFL draft had a completion rate of 54.6% and threw five touchdowns but seven interceptions for a TD/INT ratio of 0.71.  In his sophomore season, Goff improved his completion rate to 62.1% and threw 28 TDs and only seven interceptions for a TD/INT ratio of 4.00.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In Winston's rookie season in 2015, the No. 1 overall draft pick had a completion of 58.3% and a TD/INT ratio of 1.47 (22 TD passes, 15 interceptions). In his sophomore year, his completion rate improved to 60.8% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 1.56 (28 TD passes, 18 interceptions).

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles, the third overall selection in the 2014 NFL draft, had a rookie completion percentage of 58.9% and a TD/INT ratio of 0.65, having thrown 11 TD passes but 17 picks. In his sophomore season, Bortles' completion percentage fell marginally to 58.6% but he made a big improvement in his TD/INT ratio to 1.94 (35 TD passes, 18 interceptions).

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck, the first overall pick of the 2012 NFL draft, posted a 54.1% completion rate in his rookie season, and had 23 touchdown passes to 18 interceptions for a ratio of 1.28. In his second year, his completion rate improved to 60.2% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 2.55 (23 TD passes and 9 interceptions).

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

The No. 8 pick overall in the 2012 NFL draft, Tannehill posted a pass completion rate of 58.3% in his rookie season and threw 12 TDs, but also 13 interceptions for a ratio of 0.92. Those numbers improved in 2013 to 60.4% and his TD/INT ratio was cleaned up to 1.41 (24 TD passes and 17 interceptions).

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Newton, the first overall selection in the 2011 NFL draft, made 60% of his passes in his rookie season and passed for 21 touchdowns but also gave up 17 interceptions for a 1.24 ratio. In his second season, his completion rate slipped a little to 57.7% but he made improvements in his TD/INT ratio (1.58) by throwing 19 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco, the 18th overall pick in the first round in the 2008 NFL draft, posted a completion rate of 60% in his rookie year and threw for 14 TDs, but also 12 interceptions for a ratio of 1.17. He improved those numbers in his sophomore season to post a 63.1% completion percentage and a TD/INT ratio of 1.75 (21 TDs, 12 interceptions).

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers, the 24th overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, wasn't named the starting QB until the 2008 season. In his first season as a starter, he completed 63.6% of his passes. He threw 28 TD passes and gave up only 13 interceptions for a ratio of 2.15. The following season, his completion rate improved to 64.7% and his TD/INT ratio was an incredible 4.29 (30 TDs, 7 interceptions).

Eli Manning, New York Giants

Manning, the first overall selection in the 2004 NFL draft, posted a pass completion rate of only 48.2% and his TD/INT ratio was 0.67 (6 TD passes, 9 interceptions). Look what happened in his sophomore year in 2005. Manning improved his percentage completion rate to 52.8% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 1.41 (24 TD passes, 17 interceptions).

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On 2/8/2019 at 5:38 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...true but he sure as hell needs a strong supporting cast.......won't be the franchise guy for long health wise if he's forced to put the team on his shoulders weekly......2019 will be a true test for McBeane and McDermott to resolve this via draft and FA......6-10 next year and Josh on IR could be "color pink"...........stay tuned...........

Good luck taking away both.  You dont have 14 guys on the field.  You gonna put 2 safeties over the top and bring one up in the box?

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Posted (edited)
On 2/8/2019 at 4:50 PM, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Even in that Lions game, they were able to complete the deep ball in the 4th, and this postgame analysis also discusses a deep play to Croom that was open because the Lions expected a backside run to develop instead: 

I remember that play. One of my favorite offensive plays in the book. Almost unstoppable when you have the timing right. Aaron Rodgers threw that play at least 5 times every game. Looks like the easiest 30 yard play in the game.

 

Those 3 quarters with JA not being able to run were brutal. But as usual he gets really good in the 4th.

Edited by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 11:36 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

 

The question I have is: was that photo taken BEFORE the helmet hit the ground or AFTER it hit the ground and bounced back up?

 

Which then makes me wonder how many times you could get an NFL helmet to bounce off the turf with a single throw.

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I like this thread a lot. If he ends up a Super Bowl winning HOF QB it will be great to revisit. It'll be like that first bit of the first Superman movie when you see him in Smallville, before he became a legend in Metropolis.

 

Actually, Allen grew up on a farm just like Supes, and I'm pretty sure he is capable of throwing a ball just as far as Clarke Kent punted one after the school bullies pissed him off.  

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16 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

 

Actually, Allen grew up on a farm just like Supes, and I'm pretty sure he is capable of throwing a ball just as far as Clarke Kent punted one after the school bullies pissed him off.  

Haha is that actually Superman comic Canon? That's a funny story.

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Maybe we should wait and see if he can fix his very serious accuracy problem before we anoint him??? Is there a vaccine for homeritis?

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2 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Maybe we should wait and see if he can fix his very serious accuracy problem before we anoint him??? Is there a vaccine for homeritis?

I'm certainly not putting any money on JA 2020 MVP haha. And Vegas is probably offering a helluva payout. 

 

I'll wait to see if/when he makes probowl or All-Pro and evaluate his MVP potential from there. That's a very difficult award to win outright lol.

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22 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Maybe we should wait and see if he can fix his very serious accuracy problem before we anoint him??? Is there a vaccine for homeritis?

This assessment is more inaccurate than his passes....

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27 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Maybe we should wait and see if he can fix his very serious accuracy problem before we anoint him??? Is there a vaccine for homeritis?

Yeah but it's bundled together with the one for wet blanket disorder.

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The best case is that he develops into an NFL MVP.   That's how I am choosing to see it.    The most gifted of the QB's in that class with a tremendous ceiling as a player and as a face of a franchise.   Hopefully a guy who can win big and help The Pegs get a stadium built.

 

The worst case might be him becoming like a guy mentioned on the board today.........Matt Stafford..........a big arm, stat producer who just doesn't really elevate the level of his team over a 10 year period.

 

Almost better to flame out quick than that.

 

For all of his talent Stafford is a decade into his career and still has a losing record and inspires zero confidence...............but maybe the light comes on here in year 11?

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I agreed with this thread when it was started, and agree with it still now and more than ever.  

 

While I do not expect Allen to "win" the MVP as that is just not really a fair expectation to put on any 2nd year QB, I do fully expect this team to not only win double digits, but challenge for 11 or 12 wins and the division crown.  And Josh will be the unquestioned leader of this team and that team success alone will put him squarely in the MVP convo's.  

 

My realistic expectations are 3800 to 4200 yards passing, 400-600 yards rushing with 25+ passing TD's and another 8 to 10 rushing TD's.  And if he is anywhere north of 4000 combined yards and 30 combined TD's he will be in that convo as long as Bills are winning.  

 

I think we will see Josh passing numbers go up quite a bit and his rushing production decrease.  Not because they are worried about him getting hurt running or any of that (its a myth running QB's get hurt more running anyway).  But because the OL will be that much better and it will open up our actual running backs to be a lot more productive.  The combo of our run game being more effective, the OL giving Josh more time, and having better WR's who can get open more will reduce how often Josh HAS TO run.  And now his run will be more opportunistic and just as dangerous for the defense to defend.  

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On 3/4/2019 at 6:22 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/curtisrush/2019/03/03/why-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen-should-be-better-in-his-sophomore-season/#512f66514aef

Why Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen Should Be Better In His Sophomore Season

...

 

From a historical perspective, there is much to be optimistic about for Allen heading into his sophomore season. Many highly touted quarterbacks saw improvements in their play during their second seasons. Not only did their pass completion rate improve, but it was obvious that they learned how to make better reads because they threw fewer interceptions.

 

Let's look at some of the bigger, first-round quarterback selections in NFL drafts going back 15 years to give us a good sample size.

 

Josh Allen should be in the following group because his rookie year was similar: his numbers were not off-the-charts impressive and therefore easier to build on.

...

NINE QBs WHO GOT BETTER IN YEAR 2

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

In Goff's rookie season in 2016, the first overall selection in the NFL draft had a completion rate of 54.6% and threw five touchdowns but seven interceptions for a TD/INT ratio of 0.71.  In his sophomore season, Goff improved his completion rate to 62.1% and threw 28 TDs and only seven interceptions for a TD/INT ratio of 4.00.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In Winston's rookie season in 2015, the No. 1 overall draft pick had a completion of 58.3% and a TD/INT ratio of 1.47 (22 TD passes, 15 interceptions). In his sophomore year, his completion rate improved to 60.8% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 1.56 (28 TD passes, 18 interceptions).

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles, the third overall selection in the 2014 NFL draft, had a rookie completion percentage of 58.9% and a TD/INT ratio of 0.65, having thrown 11 TD passes but 17 picks. In his sophomore season, Bortles' completion percentage fell marginally to 58.6% but he made a big improvement in his TD/INT ratio to 1.94 (35 TD passes, 18 interceptions).

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck, the first overall pick of the 2012 NFL draft, posted a 54.1% completion rate in his rookie season, and had 23 touchdown passes to 18 interceptions for a ratio of 1.28. In his second year, his completion rate improved to 60.2% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 2.55 (23 TD passes and 9 interceptions).

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

The No. 8 pick overall in the 2012 NFL draft, Tannehill posted a pass completion rate of 58.3% in his rookie season and threw 12 TDs, but also 13 interceptions for a ratio of 0.92. Those numbers improved in 2013 to 60.4% and his TD/INT ratio was cleaned up to 1.41 (24 TD passes and 17 interceptions).

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Newton, the first overall selection in the 2011 NFL draft, made 60% of his passes in his rookie season and passed for 21 touchdowns but also gave up 17 interceptions for a 1.24 ratio. In his second season, his completion rate slipped a little to 57.7% but he made improvements in his TD/INT ratio (1.58) by throwing 19 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco, the 18th overall pick in the first round in the 2008 NFL draft, posted a completion rate of 60% in his rookie year and threw for 14 TDs, but also 12 interceptions for a ratio of 1.17. He improved those numbers in his sophomore season to post a 63.1% completion percentage and a TD/INT ratio of 1.75 (21 TDs, 12 interceptions).

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers, the 24th overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, wasn't named the starting QB until the 2008 season. In his first season as a starter, he completed 63.6% of his passes. He threw 28 TD passes and gave up only 13 interceptions for a ratio of 2.15. The following season, his completion rate improved to 64.7% and his TD/INT ratio was an incredible 4.29 (30 TDs, 7 interceptions).

Eli Manning, New York Giants

Manning, the first overall selection in the 2004 NFL draft, posted a pass completion rate of only 48.2% and his TD/INT ratio was 0.67 (6 TD passes, 9 interceptions). Look what happened in his sophomore year in 2005. Manning improved his percentage completion rate to 52.8% and his TD/INT ratio jumped to 1.41 (24 TD passes, 17 interceptions).

 

Since two of these QBs have been dumped by their original teams (Bortles, Tannehill), one has been mediocre with only flashes (Winston), and two others have been competent with only flashes of brilliance (Flacco, E Manning) since their improvement in their second years as starters, that leaves only 3 of the QBs mentioned who not only improved in their second seasons as starters but also developed into truly outstanding QBs.   How do you or the author translate those stats into optimism that a) Allen will improve in his second season and b) that improvement will signal that he'll have more success in the future?   JP Losman improved significantly in his second year as a starter (2006) to the point that it looked like the Bills had found a bonafide franchise QB for a while.  The next year, Losman lost his job to Trent Edwards. The entire premise of this thread is simply wishful thinking.

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Love what I saw from Allen last year but we should not put unrealistic expectations on him.  MVP in season 2 is unrealistic.  Let him continue to develop, let him make better reads which should lead to more short/intermediate throws and so on.

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5 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Maybe we should wait and see if he can fix his very serious accuracy problem before we anoint him??? Is there a vaccine for homeritis?

 

Allen doesn't have any very serious accuracy problem, unless you think most promising rookie QBs do. 

 

I can say with confidence that Allen is about as accurate a passer as all the the rookie QBs this year and Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were in their rookie years.

 

What Allen really needs to make strides on, more than anything, is his processing. And that's the beauty of an entire offseason working in the exact same offense.

 

Plus he needed the other 10 starters on offense to be massively upgraded, and it sure looks like McBeane have already done that.

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Cole Beasley helps his completion %.  Having a guy who can get open within 10 yards will be huge.  Too often Allen had to hang in the pocket run around to make something happen because the receivers could initially win.

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8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The best case is that he develops into an NFL MVP.   That's how I am choosing to see it.    The most gifted of the QB's in that class with a tremendous ceiling as a player and as a face of a franchise.   Hopefully a guy who can win big and help The Pegs get a stadium built.

 

The worst case might be him becoming like a guy mentioned on the board today.........Matt Stafford..........a big arm, stat producer who just doesn't really elevate the level of his team over a 10 year period.

 

Almost better to flame out quick than that.

 

For all of his talent Stafford is a decade into his career and still has a losing record and inspires zero confidence...............but maybe the light comes on here in year 11?

Agreed Stafford to be a worst case type scenario; but I feel like JA already possesses certain leadership traits/characteristics that Stafford never has. I’ll be greatly surprised if that’s Allen’s ceiling after 10 years!

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8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The worst case might be him becoming like a guy mentioned on the board today.........Matt Stafford..........a big arm, stat producer who just doesn't really elevate the level of his team over a 10 year period.

 

Almost better to flame out quick than that.

 

For all of his talent Stafford is a decade into his career and still has a losing record and inspires zero confidence...............but maybe the light comes on here in year 11?

I think Stafford wins much more with teams like last year's Vikings, Ravens, Texans.. the team that's presumably a QB away. He's not great, but he's good enough and let's not pretend like the Lions have done a bangup job his entire career.

 

Just saying.. you can win with Matt Stafford if you actually still have a good team IMO. It's just harder. He's not Drew Brees but switch him and Drew and Stat Padford could have a better record. Drew Brees had great stats on some crap 6-10 Saints teams. Stat Padford has spent his entire career on a bad supporting cast.

 

Worst case scenario is he flat out sucks. I'd love to have Stat Padford.

2 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Agreed Stafford to be a worst case type scenario; but I feel like JA already possesses certain leadership traits/characteristics that Stafford never has. I’ll be greatly surprised if that’s Allen’s ceiling after 10 years!

Awe dude not cool

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