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Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game


Gettysburg

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On 11/18/2018 at 9:03 AM, Gettysburg said:

 

I see a very high probability of the Bills beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Lions at home. With a good chance of beating the Dolphins on the road.


I see a very high probability of the Patriots beating the Jets and losing to the Steelers.  Then a good chance of them losing to the VIkings at home and Dolphins on the road.

 

I see a 1 in 5 chance of the scenarios playing out. I then see a 50-50 chance of the Bills on a 5 game winning streak going on the road and beating the Patriots.

 

Steelers game will be a shoot out. Steelers D isn’t that good and should have lost yesterday if the Jags had done ANYTHING in the fourth quarter.  Minnesota will be a W, Pats will win by 14.. why? Because people will still be doubting them after they beat the lowly jets. Losing to the Phins.. a very high probability.. they always seem to lose in Miami.  The worst I see the Pats finishing  11-5. 

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1 hour ago, billsredneck1 said:

that's the thing about these threads that i don't get.  you have all these posters who are lining up to declare this season lost already....like 26matteroffact...and anybody holding onto hope is an idiot.  that's nothing more than a loser mentality  and it sure doesn't fall in line with being an actual fan.

 

i want this team to prepare to win each and every game and for the players and staff to work together fielding the team with the player(s) that give us the best chance to win.

looking at this next particular opponent, i believe barkley gives us the best chance.  you can put josh in a much more favorable situation by starting him against the fins or even when we get back home.    that is not in any way going to stunt his development.  that's b.s.

 

if they start barkley and things go south, throw josh in, no big deal.  if it's the other way around...season over....home games empty and it will be a slow painful death to the season.

imagine being a player on this team knowing there's still a chance and the coach comes in and says... "  i know a lot of you may disagree with this, but i'm starting josh because the most important thing going forward is getting him reps for next year."  i for one would not be too happy.

 

granted, i'm not seeing what's going on in practice, but given his play pre-injury play and not having played in a while, i have a hard time thinking he's gonna come in and light it up....

and if he doesn't there goes the running game, here comes the pressure, there goes the game.

My underlining message of my post was lets take it one game at a time, not worry about what other teams are doing. Lets take care of business on our end and things will generally work themselves out.

 

To comment on the bolded first part: why can't you do it the other way around? Allen looks rough bring in Barkley? 

 

Second part of the bolded, this is why you are starting to see the younger guys get more playing time

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Love to believe this rosy scenario but missing the playoffs by at least 2 games is much more likely. There is no way in hell the Texans and Colts should have beaten the Bills. Both losses were due to poor personnel decisions by the Bills in key situations. Win those 2 and we are 5-5. Instead we are on life support due to inept management of QBs.

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23 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

I understand odds just fine. I don't think every game is a 50% chance. I don't see the Bills losing another home game this year. Confident they are going to win all 4. 100%.

 

I am not sure you understand odds just fine.  The likelihood of Bills winning AFC East is <1%.  The table below adds odds across the columns.  The Bills winning is only a part of the must happen scenarios.

 

98% chance bills don't make the playoffs.

 

AFC East Playoff Standings
  Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No
Playoffs
Team W L T 1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
Patriots 7 3 0 8% 30% 25% 24% 1% 3% 8%
Dolphins 5 5 0 <1% 1% 3% 7% 1% 9% 78%
Bills 3 7 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 98%
Jets 3 7 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
 
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
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On 11/18/2018 at 7:47 AM, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Getty’s, it is not impossible for each of those things to happen, but everyone of those has to happen for it to be possible.

 

Whic, I think, is virtually impossible.

Sooo your saying there’s a chance ??

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On 11/18/2018 at 6:29 AM, Gettysburg said:

 

What is so looney? 

You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions?

 

You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road?

No. I cannot see all of those things happening. At all.

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On 11/18/2018 at 8:41 AM, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&amp;nyj-ne-12=loss&amp;mia-buf-13=loss&amp;ne-min-13=loss&amp;buf-nyj-14=win&amp;mia-ne-14=win&amp;buf-det-15=win&amp;pit-ne-15=win&amp;ne-buf-16=loss&amp;buf-mia-17=win&amp;ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

 

Getty’s, although I stand by what I have previously said, let me apologize for my original perception of your thread and topic.

 

When I really thought about it for a bit, you are technically correct.

 

Honestly, their best chance at making the playoff is winning the division.

 

All the other wild card scenarios are mind boggling to even contemplate.

 

Props for the thought you put into it, regardless of how remote it seems...I agree it is the most likely scenario given the other options.

 

i gave your original post a thumbs up now.

 

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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4 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

Love to believe this rosy scenario but missing the playoffs by at least 2 games is much more likely. There is no way in hell the Texans and Colts should have beaten the Bills. Both losses were due to poor personnel decisions by the Bills in key situations. Win those 2 and we are 5-5. Instead we are on life support due to inept management of QBs.

 

Eh... You didnt watch that colts game, did you?

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On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 9:53 AM, billsredneck1 said:

but what if?...  what if we send allen out there against the jags and it's a miserable offensive output...josh gets the snot knocked out of him...the season is over....

 

and the pats actually lose 3 in a row?

Do you honestly think that Matt Barkley is the answer at QB for the Bills to get to the super bowl?  After 1 game vs the Jets who have quit already?  I don't, personally.  I'm ok with grinding it out this year with the rookie, win, lose or draw, in the hopes that he can develop into something that will give us long term success.  

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13 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

Do you honestly think that Matt Barkley is the answer at QB for the Bills to get to the super bowl?  After 1 game vs the Jets who have quit already?  I don't, personally.  I'm ok with grinding it out this year with the rookie, win, lose or draw, in the hopes that he can develop into something that will give us long term success.  

 

 

I have no problem if the kid throws 40 or more passes a game for six straight games.

 

Win or lose it is just plain 240+ throws in real action which he absolutely cannot get whatsoever again until next September.

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On 11/18/2018 at 8:41 AM, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&amp;nyj-ne-12=loss&amp;mia-buf-13=loss&amp;ne-min-13=loss&amp;buf-nyj-14=win&amp;mia-ne-14=win&amp;buf-det-15=win&amp;pit-ne-15=win&amp;ne-buf-16=loss&amp;buf-mia-17=win&amp;ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

This could happen, however, for all the stars to align is very slim. 

 

First, the Bills would need to continue on with stellar D and get some turnovers that shorten the field.

 

Second, Josh Allen has to be much more accurate, protect the ball and sprinkle in a few 300 yard games- a very tall order for a rook comin’ off an injury.

 

Third, as much as I think Brady is in decline the Pats will find a way to win the division. 

 

OP- love the optimism but I just think the deck is stacked against us. 

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