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Is No. 1 Ranking Legit or a Mirage?


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So our D is No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in YPP, top ten in number of plays against (which makes the first two stats all that more impressive), middle of the pack in third down conversion, sacks and interceptions.  Another poster opined that the high ranking was a result of teams "taking their foot off the gas" in second half of games.  Anyone have any stats to back that up or argue against it?  I look at the defense as good to very good, not great.  Certainly playoff caliber with a half way decent offense.  I'm hoping we don't totally ignore the defense in the off-season.  Make an upgrade at CB opposite White, look for upgrade at OLB, sign J. Phillips, entice K. Williams to come back for another year.  If they finished with #1 pick (which won't come close to happening), I wouldn't mind picking Bosa to upgrade from good to great.  Of course, it shows the state of the league when a #1 D gets you  3 -7.  No matter what moves are made next year, to a large extent it all depends on Allen. 

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it's a little over stated, but YPP is no joke.  it's a very solid D and most def one of the best in the NFL.  Say top 5 for sure.

 

a little bit of explosion on O and better special teams play would make the bills a really tough out for anyone.  i think the signs for 2019 look good.

 

Allen turning into a stud would make this team pretty tough, assuming we stock up on talent in the draft and in FA next season.

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6 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

So our D is No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in YPP, top ten in number of plays against (which makes the first two stats all that more impressive), middle of the pack in third down conversion, sacks and interceptions.  Another poster opined that the high ranking was a result of teams "taking their foot off the gas" in second half of games.  Anyone have any stats to back that up or argue against it?  I look at the defense as good to very good, not great.  Certainly playoff caliber with a half way decent offense.  I'm hoping we don't totally ignore the defense in the off-season.  Make an upgrade at CB opposite White, look for upgrade at OLB, sign J. Phillips, entice K. Williams to come back for another year.  If they finished with #1 pick (which won't come close to happening), I wouldn't mind picking Bosa to upgrade from good to great.  Of course, it shows the state of the league when a #1 D gets you  3 -7.  No matter what moves are made next year, to a large extent it all depends on Allen. 

 

I disagree that it isn't as good as advertised according to ranking. The two first game were absolute blow-outs and it was the second half of that Chargers game where McD took over and D hasn't really looked back. It was put in continuously bad spots in the Green Bay game with the turnovers and on the road yet played admirably. In Indy the same thing, Anderson kept turning the ball over and the Offense was more like a game of relay to the Indy's Offense, against Andrew Luck who has had a great season thus far. Keeping all of that in mind and that you sandwich in the Pats this ranking, and I think it's not only legit, I think it only tells half the story. All of the factors I mentioned lead me to think that the Defense has drastically improved, Star is underrated, Trent Murphy is fine but he isn't *that* missed, Shaq Lawson really did come to play this year, and the LBers have been total studs. CB2 is something very much on the Bills radar. If you follow Astro - or Dean Kindig - on Twitter he just put out a graphic yesterday that the Bills have been scouting CBs something fierce. 

 

I could totally be off base, but if Beane is as smart as he has been so far (QB position needs ironing out for Allen and poor mistake to not have a better QB2 - but pretty good so far in other areas), I think they go as heavy in FA on Offense as the players will let them. Meaning, just because the Bills want a guy, doesn't mean that guy wants to come to Buffalo. But, I suspect they'll throw money at the Offense in FA and use the Draft for Defense because all experts tend to agree, this Draft and its superior talent is entirely about the Defense. 

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17 minutes ago, colin said:

it's a little over stated, but YPP is no joke.  it's a very solid D and most def one of the best in the NFL.  Say top 5 for sure.

 

a little bit of explosion on O and better special teams play would make the bills a really tough out for anyone.  i think the signs for 2019 look good.

 

Allen turning into a stud would make this team pretty tough, assuming we stock up on talent in the draft and in FA next season.

 

Only major projected losses would be Kyle, Lorax, and jordan philips. I think any of them could be back next year - or other players could be brought in depending on FA and draft.  Should be a good unit in 2019.

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12 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

Overrated for now. Top 10, sure, but there lots of points given up, lots of 3rd down conversions, not a lot of turnovers or sacks. It's a solid but not elite defense. Let's see how things shape up if we field a competent chain moving offense.

We're tied for 8th in takeaways and 12th in sacks. I'd agree mostly...needs to improve on red zone and 3rd down conversions to be elite, but considering how many giveaways the offense has had its our own territory and the fact they've had to be on the field for so much of the game and how the defense has so rarely wilted in the second half, I'd argue they are above solid. And when you consider the youth of many of the key players and that the only significant players who are free agents are players who are nearing retirement but not really slipping and who if they don't retire would probably lean towards staying in Buffalo, the elite defense potential for next few years is quite high.

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11 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

What’s PPG average?  That’s more important that’s yards given up.  

Not really true in gauging whether it's a truly great defense as if we have the worst drive start point (as i believe we do), that impacts ppg. For example, if the opponent picks the ball off at the 20, the D pushes them back to the 27 in a 3 & out, we give up 3 pts, but that's not really the defense's fault. I'm not saying that ypg are more indicative.

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34 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

So our D is No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in YPP, top ten in number of plays against (which makes the first two stats all that more impressive), middle of the pack in third down conversion, sacks and interceptions.  Another poster opined that the high ranking was a result of teams "taking their foot off the gas" in second half of games.  Anyone have any stats to back that up or argue against it?  I look at the defense as good to very good, not great.  Certainly playoff caliber with a half way decent offense.  I'm hoping we don't totally ignore the defense in the off-season.  Make an upgrade at CB opposite White, look for upgrade at OLB, sign J. Phillips, entice K. Williams to come back for another year.  If they finished with #1 pick (which won't come close to happening), I wouldn't mind picking Bosa to upgrade from good to great.  Of course, it shows the state of the league when a #1 D gets you  3 -7.  No matter what moves are made next year, to a large extent it all depends on Allen. 

where are people getting their stats?

 

I said this int he other We Have the Best Defense thread.

 

TOTAL defense Net Total Yards Leaders the Bills are #7.  

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Yards per game yes #1. 

 

Total passing 4th and Per Pass  Yds Per game  2nd 

Rushing 14 and 12 

 

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The defense is ok.   If it is the NFL's best defense, that says more about the NFL state of defenses than it does the Bills. 

I suspect the stats are distorted by the fact that every Bills game has been a blow out one way or the other.  In the games where the Bills are getting blown out, teams opposing them don't have a lot of incentive to go for big plays, so that may contribute to the favorable YPP.  

 

My concern with the D has more to with replacing LoRax and Kyle, than their level of performance. Those guys have not been small cogs.  

 

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3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

where are people getting their stats?

 

I said this int he other We Have the Best Defense thread.

 

TOTAL defense Net Total Yards Leaders the Bills are #7.  

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Yards per game yes #1. 

 

Total passing 4th and Per Pass  Yds Per game  2nd 

Rushing 14 and 12 

 

Bills have played 1 more game then all those other teams, thus that's why they're in 7th.  Baltimore is the only team with a real chance to be #1 after this week, the rest no way.  The Bills D will be at least #2 after this upcoming weekend

 

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43 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

So our D is No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in YPP, top ten in number of plays against (which makes the first two stats all that more impressive), middle of the pack in third down conversion, sacks and interceptions.  Another poster opined that the high ranking was a result of teams "taking their foot off the gas" in second half of games.  Anyone have any stats to back that up or argue against it?  I look at the defense as good to very good, not great.  Certainly playoff caliber with a half way decent offense.  I'm hoping we don't totally ignore the defense in the off-season.  Make an upgrade at CB opposite White, look for upgrade at OLB, sign J. Phillips, entice K. Williams to come back for another year.  If they finished with #1 pick (which won't come close to happening), I wouldn't mind picking Bosa to upgrade from good to great.  Of course, it shows the state of the league when a #1 D gets you  3 -7.  No matter what moves are made next year, to a large extent it all depends on Allen. 

 

For whatever reason on pre-game shows, ESPN, etc. they always refer to the yardage leaders as #1 Defense, Offense, etc.  While, it is true the Bills D may be #1 in yardage allowed, they are not really anywhere near that in points allowed.  While yardage can be an indicator of a D's abilities, points win games.  Limiting points seems to be the best stat to lead in if your are a Defense.  My take anyway.

 

For what its worth, ESPN stats show the Bills D 19th in points allowed at 25.1 points per game.  Tennessee is #1 giving up 16.8 ppg.  If I had my choice I would give up yards all day to have the #1 scoring defense (especially considering our O's struggles).

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Defensive rankings would be better if this were 30+ years ago when the rules suited that side of the ball.  Now, it's practically irrelevant.

 

New England was ranked near the bottom last year in defense among many statistical categories and made it to the Super Bowl.  KC this year can't stop anyone and they're perhaps the best team in the AFC.

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