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BringBackOrton

DeShAuN wAtSoN iS sTrUgGlInG nOw WiTh TaPe

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On ‎11‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 4:33 AM, jrober38 said:

 

No. I've maintained for about 10 years now that finding a QB is really hard unless you have the #1 overall pick. 

 

Historically speaking, about 70% of QBs picked first overall are successful, whereas about 28% of QBs picked 2nd to 32nd overall are successful.

 

Unless you're picking #1 and taking a blue chip guy, the vast majority of first round QBs aren't successful. 

 

 

Yes. Which shows that you can predict the outcome of a large group of people. But not what will happen with one individual.

 

With one individual you can say "Only about 1% of all QBs who appear on a roster become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 5% of all drafted QBs become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 20% of QBs picked in the 1st and 2nd round become franchise QBs." Or you can say, "Only about 40% of 1st round QBs become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 50% of QBs picked in the top ten picks become franchise QBs." Or you could go back and figure out how many years three or more QBs were picked in the top top ten what the results were for those guys." Or you could try to slant it against Allen as far as possible and you could say, "Only about '28% of QBs picked 2nd to 32nd are successful.'"

 

All of those are more or less true, though I didn't bother calculating the exact numbers. Each tells less about any one particular QB's probably outcome and more about how you selected your group to try to produce the result you wanted.

 

Or you could do the best you could to look at one particular guy. You could say, "This guy has all the physical tools. And he was picked top ten. In a year when four guys were picked in the top ten, which means the later guys might well have been picked far earlier if the two picked #1 and #3 hadn't come out the same year. Or not ... who knows, but it's possible." And you could continue, "He's a small school guy. Those guys come in less prepared, they're more developmental. And he can run. That'll help him a bit. But it's hard to judge him by his college experience because the guys on his team just weren't good enough to compete with the good teams and that handicapped him." And that the converse was also true, that he played a relatively easy schedule, making it again harder to judge how he'll play against NFL competition. You could go into injury history, the fact that he was widely considered a guy who would need a year or more to sit and develop behind somebody and didn't get the chance to do so. And that in the NFL, surrounded by a poor offensive roster but with an excellent defensive roster helping keep games in reach, he has played one really good games and five at varying levels of badness.

 

And what you'll come out of all of that with ... unless your prejudices have made up your mind for you and you're trying to prove your point rather than do an intelligent prediction ... is that there's no way to know and we'll have to wait and see. Intelligent reasonable guesses could probably fall anywhere between, roughly, a 15% and 60% chance to play well.

Edited by Thurman#1
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13 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

I really like the QBR stat as a measurement of QB play.  Watson is 16th.  That is good.  If you are Houston, you are thrilled he is your guy and you know you have that piece in place for the next decade if he stays healthy.  I can't speak for Bills fans, but I would assume many would be glad to have him....and I'd bet some would reject him as middle of the pack and happy to see what Allen becomes.  .....my only point in posting in this thread was to counter the OP who seems to think Watson is elite.  He isn't.  He is good but in the mid range of QB, not top 10.  

 

 

QBR has some bizarre results. And nobody really knows why, because it's an opaque stat.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the third-best QB this year. And Trubisky is #7. And again, nobody knows why, exactly. And last year, Dak Prescott was the fourth-best, Keenum, #2, was a bit better than Brady, who was #3, and Blake Bortles was the 12th best just a bit behind Brees at #9. Oh, and Tyrod Taylor was the 14th best last year and the 9th best the year before.

 

Watson has a ways to go before he shows himself elite. But he's playing at a level that's above average so far this year.

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9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

QBR has some bizarre results. And nobody really knows why, because it's an opaque stat.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the third-best QB this year. And Trubisky is #7. And again, nobody knows why, exactly. And last year, Dak Prescott was the fourth-best, Keenum, #2, was a bit better than Brady, who was #3, and Blake Bortles was the 12th best just a bit behind Brees at #9. Oh, and Tyrod Taylor was the 14th best last year and the 9th best the year before.

 

Watson has a ways to go before he shows himself elite. But he's playing at a level that's above average so far this year.

 

Yea QBR sucks as a stat. Passer rating is far from perfect, but I would take it every time over QBR

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7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, history shows that many don't and many do and you don't know which is which. That's what history shows. You can parse it a million different ways, but what history shows about the results in an individual case is only that we simply don't know what will happen.

 

Actually history shows most don't and some do.

 

There's a big difference. 

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On 11/6/2018 at 2:18 PM, BringBackOrton said:

Oh boy.  I do declare the rumors of Watson's demise were greatly exaggerated.

 

Here's what our beautiful boy out of Clemson is doing through 8 games:

 

5-3 as a starter, 3 game-winning drives

2389 passing yards, 10th in the NFL

17 passing TD's (tied for 8th with Tom Brady)

7 INT's (tied with Brady and Mahomes)

Passer rating 100.8 (tied for 10th with Cam)

 

All while being the second most sacked QB in the NFL.

 

If Mahomes wasn't breaking records, Watson would be the talk of the second year QB town.  Imagine passing on two franchise QB's in one draft.  Couldn't be me.

Very original. We get it.Thanks for the awesome read.

:wallbash:

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6 hours ago, Dopey said:

Very original. We get it.Thanks for the awesome read.

:wallbash:

How many topics existed on how well Deshaun Watson was playing this year? I’ll hang up and listen.

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