Boatdrinks Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 On 11/6/2018 at 2:20 PM, John from Riverside said: Imagine what he would look like here in Buffalo with this line and these weapons..... /thread Yes , cue the “ player X wouldn’t be any good in Buffalo “ retorts. Perhaps Watson would have some weapons by now if the Bills had drafted him in 2017.Maybe an offensive line, too. Cordy Glenn might still be a Bill, and perhaps Icognito too if they hadn’t reduced his pay. So many things might be different now. I’ve never bought the argument that good players wouldn’t be good in Buffalo because...Buffalo. Sorry, but it just doesn’t fly. 7 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Or we can just be happy for those teams and look to our own QB that we have drafted with the 7th overall pick Happy for the other teams that drafted the good players your own team decided they could do without? Yeah, that’s not how being a fan of a particular NFL team works. If you are just a general NFL fan, you’ll probably be happy with that mindset as every team will have some of your favorite players, and there will always be some team doing the right things and winning games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Yes , cue the “ player X wouldn’t be any good in Buffalo “ retorts. Perhaps Watson would have some weapons by now if the Bills had drafted him in 2017.Maybe an offensive line, too. Cordy Glenn might still be a Bill, and perhaps Icognito too if they hadn’t reduced his pay. So many things might be different now. I’ve never bought the argument that good players wouldn’t be good in Buffalo because...Buffalo. Sorry, but it just doesn’t fly. Its not that they would not be "any good in Buffalo" This is a snapshot in time.....right at this moment....taking the player and just moving them from one situation to another...... And your right..maybe the players around them ARE different (although your just projecting at this point because you dont know for sure) You also dont know what OUR drafted qb is going to look like when HE gets that OL and WR help either This arguement that you keep flaunting works both ways like that....you only see one way....your agenda way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 6 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Or we can just be happy for those teams and look to our own QB that we have drafted with the 7th overall pick I’ve been trying to watch him but it’s been tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Just now, BringBackOrton said: I’ve been trying to watch him but it’s been tough. Well he hasnt been doing much lately exept for sipping gaterade and patting his own teamates ***** as they take the field so....... Yeah....tough to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:26 AM, jrober38 said: History shows that probably won't happen. No, history shows that many don't and many do and you don't know which is which. That's what history shows. You can parse it a million different ways, but what history shows about the results in an individual case is only that we simply don't know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) On 11/7/2018 at 4:33 AM, jrober38 said: No. I've maintained for about 10 years now that finding a QB is really hard unless you have the #1 overall pick. Historically speaking, about 70% of QBs picked first overall are successful, whereas about 28% of QBs picked 2nd to 32nd overall are successful. Unless you're picking #1 and taking a blue chip guy, the vast majority of first round QBs aren't successful. Yes. Which shows that you can predict the outcome of a large group of people. But not what will happen with one individual. With one individual you can say "Only about 1% of all QBs who appear on a roster become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 5% of all drafted QBs become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 20% of QBs picked in the 1st and 2nd round become franchise QBs." Or you can say, "Only about 40% of 1st round QBs become franchise guys." Or you can say, "Only about 50% of QBs picked in the top ten picks become franchise QBs." Or you could go back and figure out how many years three or more QBs were picked in the top top ten what the results were for those guys." Or you could try to slant it against Allen as far as possible and you could say, "Only about '28% of QBs picked 2nd to 32nd are successful.'" All of those are more or less true, though I didn't bother calculating the exact numbers. Each tells less about any one particular QB's probably outcome and more about how you selected your group to try to produce the result you wanted. Or you could do the best you could to look at one particular guy. You could say, "This guy has all the physical tools. And he was picked top ten. In a year when four guys were picked in the top ten, which means the later guys might well have been picked far earlier if the two picked #1 and #3 hadn't come out the same year. Or not ... who knows, but it's possible." And you could continue, "He's a small school guy. Those guys come in less prepared, they're more developmental. And he can run. That'll help him a bit. But it's hard to judge him by his college experience because the guys on his team just weren't good enough to compete with the good teams and that handicapped him." And that the converse was also true, that he played a relatively easy schedule, making it again harder to judge how he'll play against NFL competition. You could go into injury history, the fact that he was widely considered a guy who would need a year or more to sit and develop behind somebody and didn't get the chance to do so. And that in the NFL, surrounded by a poor offensive roster but with an excellent defensive roster helping keep games in reach, he has played one really good games and five at varying levels of badness. And what you'll come out of all of that with ... unless your prejudices have made up your mind for you and you're trying to prove your point rather than do an intelligent prediction ... is that there's no way to know and we'll have to wait and see. Intelligent reasonable guesses could probably fall anywhere between, roughly, a 15% and 60% chance to play well. Edited November 8, 2018 by Thurman#1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: I really like the QBR stat as a measurement of QB play. Watson is 16th. That is good. If you are Houston, you are thrilled he is your guy and you know you have that piece in place for the next decade if he stays healthy. I can't speak for Bills fans, but I would assume many would be glad to have him....and I'd bet some would reject him as middle of the pack and happy to see what Allen becomes. .....my only point in posting in this thread was to counter the OP who seems to think Watson is elite. He isn't. He is good but in the mid range of QB, not top 10. QBR has some bizarre results. And nobody really knows why, because it's an opaque stat. Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the third-best QB this year. And Trubisky is #7. And again, nobody knows why, exactly. And last year, Dak Prescott was the fourth-best, Keenum, #2, was a bit better than Brady, who was #3, and Blake Bortles was the 12th best just a bit behind Brees at #9. Oh, and Tyrod Taylor was the 14th best last year and the 9th best the year before. Watson has a ways to go before he shows himself elite. But he's playing at a level that's above average so far this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: QBR has some bizarre results. And nobody really knows why, because it's an opaque stat. Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the third-best QB this year. And Trubisky is #7. And again, nobody knows why, exactly. And last year, Dak Prescott was the fourth-best, Keenum, #2, was a bit better than Brady, who was #3, and Blake Bortles was the 12th best just a bit behind Brees at #9. Oh, and Tyrod Taylor was the 14th best last year and the 9th best the year before. Watson has a ways to go before he shows himself elite. But he's playing at a level that's above average so far this year. Yea QBR sucks as a stat. Passer rating is far from perfect, but I would take it every time over QBR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: No, history shows that many don't and many do and you don't know which is which. That's what history shows. You can parse it a million different ways, but what history shows about the results in an individual case is only that we simply don't know what will happen. Actually history shows most don't and some do. There's a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 On 11/6/2018 at 2:18 PM, BringBackOrton said: Oh boy. I do declare the rumors of Watson's demise were greatly exaggerated. Here's what our beautiful boy out of Clemson is doing through 8 games: 5-3 as a starter, 3 game-winning drives 2389 passing yards, 10th in the NFL 17 passing TD's (tied for 8th with Tom Brady) 7 INT's (tied with Brady and Mahomes) Passer rating 100.8 (tied for 10th with Cam) All while being the second most sacked QB in the NFL. If Mahomes wasn't breaking records, Watson would be the talk of the second year QB town. Imagine passing on two franchise QB's in one draft. Couldn't be me. Very original. We get it.Thanks for the awesome read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 6 hours ago, Dopey said: Very original. We get it.Thanks for the awesome read. How many topics existed on how well Deshaun Watson was playing this year? I’ll hang up and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 Bump. My man is 7-0 since week 3. With a caved in chest. Is that good? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 did you bump this to pump yourself up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 It’s weird. All the “experts” said last year’s qb class wasn’t good but this year’s was super awesome. weird that the qb who has won everywhere, and dominated Alabama twice is really good in the nfl. Weird but I guess it’s all luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, teef said: did you bump this to pump yourself up? Watson is like a son to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said: Watson is like a son to me. i honestly loved this response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: It’s weird. All the “experts” said last year’s qb class wasn’t good but this year’s was super awesome. weird that the qb who has won everywhere, and dominated Alabama twice is really good in the nfl. Weird but I guess it’s all luck. Well, tbh, which third QB off the board would you rather have? The one who threw 2 TDs in 6 games or the one who threw 19 TDs in 7? We’ll take your calls after the break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 7 straight W's .... how's that working out with DeShAuN wAtSoN sTrUgGlInG nOw WiTh TaPe? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I didn't read all the posts in this thread, but what is with the random upper and lower case letters in the thread title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 he and the texans are playing well, but we really shoulda beat them. peterman, god he sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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