How does a QB deficient team pass on Mahomes/Watson

[Zerovoltz]

On 10/26/2018 at 9:49 PM, Rc2catch said:

What are the odds Watson or Mahomes is successful here? Even with the players lost via trade and free agency.

Why is it a given they “missed” on these picks? 

Watson is a year and a half into his career and what 6-7 games for Mahomes? 

While im not sold on Allen as a franchise guy I just don’t see the fascination with other quarterbacks we could of drafted instead.

totally different systems and team situations. 

This line of reasoning is not very sound.  If you are inclined to think Watson and Mahomes couldn’t succeed with Buffalo then you have to ask who possibly could AND, then you’d have to be critical of the Bills for drafting the ultimate project QB.  

 

This logic just turns into a hopeless circle.

 

our team is bad, we need a Qb.  If we take a QB, he will still suck because our team is bad.  Ok, our team is bad, we need a QB.  We will ruin him because our team is bad.  

 

If if you want to say Mahomes would be breaking records if he were a Bill, that is valid, but if you think Mahomes or Rodgers or Marino would just suck because they had this roster, is a lazy way to evaluate a QB.

 

 

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Do you think this makes any sense by any stretch of the imagination?

 

Trading out of the top ten to take a first round DB to replace a young vet that they let walk in FA rather than take a potential franchise quarterback may not be sensible but it is the quintessential "Billsy" thing to do.  If the Bills FO can screw up a draft, have no doubt that they will do it.

 

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

So many teams have swung and missed on QB's, it's the hardest position in football to get right, when teams do they're genius' and when they don't it's always hindsight to lay blame,. How could the Bills have passed on Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahommes, Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and countless others? Besides the obvious fact of not having a GM made it next to impossible to sign a QB, I doubt any respectable GM would have come here with a QB that the HC just drafted even Beane for that matter. I don't think I've ever heard or scene a scenario like that but I'm not sure. The second opinion of mine would be that Mcdermott worked out the QB prospects and didn't think they fit here for whatever reason, just my 2 pennies.

 

The reason that the Bills can't hire a competent NFL gm is because the Bills GM is expected to share power with the HC and with various other FO office personnel who have too much input into football decisions, not because the Bills already had a recently drafted first round QB.   In the case of Brandon Beane, he was apparently hired primarily because of McDermott's influence. 

 

Moreover, draft picks don't have a real choice about what team that they can sign with.  Either they sign with the team that drafted them or they sit out whatever period they have to wait to become eligible for the draft again (or whatever the specific rules are). 

 

Finally, the Bills have missed on QBs because they have long tried to go the cheap route with QBs, mostly making do with lower round draft picks or other teams' discards.  Jim Kelly was the first first round QB the Bills drafted in their history.  They didn't draft another first round QB for 21 years until they took JP Losman in 2004.   They waited another 9 years to draft another QB in the first round.  Even though it was obvious early on that Manuel was a bust, the Bills finally got around to drafting another QB in the first round in 2018. 

 

4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

LOL Just to put things in perspective this same competent scouting that you're talking about, while likely not the same identical top to bottom front office and coaching staff, the guy in the middle of all that Andy Reid during his years with the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb in the 1st round, AJ Feeley, Andy Hall and Donovan McNabb (got one right)  So is he really so s smart or just got lucky.

 

And lets give a little more time than 6 games too.  Dak Prescott was looking amazing the first 10 games of his rookie year.  Since then looks OK, but not great.

 

You are incorrect about Andy Reid's QBs.  Only Patrick Mahomes (2017) and Donovan McNabb (1999) were first round picks.  Kolb was a 2nd rounder (2007).  Andy Hall was a 6th rounder (2004).  AJ Feeley was a 5th round pick in 2001.  FTR, McNabb was the only long term franchise QB from his class.

Edited October 28, 2018 by SoTier

[Success]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

WHO exactly is saying this?  Jesus

No one.  I’ve seen posters who are excited about Allen in general, but no one making any guarantees.

 

Quite a few more have already proclaimed him a bust.  Because he isn’t “progressing.”

[Chimp]

15 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

EJ Manuel would have the highest career QB rating of any qb on the Bils roster right now. 

?

OJ probably would have gotten in trouble in Miami.

Haha, that’s why qb win loss records are a joke.  Allen had 50 yards passing before he completed 2 screen passes in the last drive.  He was awful in the Titans game.  Defense won that game.

You site a qb rating and then call the win loss record a joke.  I get what you're trying to say in that Allen didn't play well, but dude...have you watched EJ play?

[Ol Dirty B]

10 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

I miss the hell out of Thad. Would kill to have 2013 Thad on this roster backing up when all hell breaks loose

 

The guy was a gamer and went to Duke. I hate Duke. But Thad is that guy. He's no where near a starter, but smart and gutsy enough to root for. He's like the black Fitz if that comparison makes sense to anyone.

43 minutes ago, Chimp said:

You site a qb rating and then call the win loss record a joke.  I get what you're trying to say in that Allen didn't play well, but dude...have you watched EJ play?

 

I want to be wrong. But in my opinion, Allen has shown nothing more than EJ. I really see nothing, it's just an honest opinion. If you can point to some sign of encouragement, I'm all ears.

[GreggTX]

Obviously Whaley and his scouts weren't that high on them. They are all long gone so why worry about it now?

[Ayjent]

19 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Imagine if Allen was drafted by KC and given a year to mature in that system with all of that talent around him.  Then imagine if Mahomes was drafted by the Bills and in our offense.   This board would be complaining that someone should loose their job over not drafting Allen.   I know the time line does not work out, but I am just stating the system and talent level does affect the success of a quarterback. 

So what part of the organization is responsible for that and how do you fix it?  Because it seems that this rationalization is generally shifting the blame from one obvious circumstance (failure to draft a good player at QB that is having success elsewhere)  to another mysterious one (unstated failure of this organization to be stable for any young QB).

[simpleman]

10 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

LOL Just to put things in perspective this same competent scouting that you're talking about, while likely not the same identical top to bottom front office and coaching staff, the guy in the middle of all that Andy Reid during his years with the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb in the 1st round, AJ Feeley, Andy Hall and Donovan McNabb (got one right)  So is he really so s smart or just got lucky.

 

And lets give a little more time than 6 games too.  Dak Prescott was looking amazing the first 10 games of his rookie year.  Since then looks OK, but not great.

Really, Dak was a 4^th round pick. Passer rating of 94.

 

Completion percentage:	64.7
Passing yards:	8,408
TD–INT:	53–21
Passer rating:	94.0
Rushing yards:	875
Rushing touchdowns:	14

 

This is his contract:

 

Year	Age	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number	Cap %

 

 

2016	23	$450,000	$95,848	$0	$0	$0	$545,848	0.4%
2017	24	$540,000	$95,848	$0	$0	$0	$635,848	0.4%
2018	25	$630,000	$95,848	$0	$0	$0	$725,848	0.4%
2019	26	$720,000	$95,848	$0	$0	$0	$815,848	0.4%
Total		$2,340,000	$383,392	$0	$0	$0	$2,723,392

A majority of NFL teams would be ecstatic to have drafted a starting QB with those stats and that contract from a 1^st round pick, not a 4^th rounder QB where you are lucky to have drafted a career backup or depth player. Maybe not a Brady, but  Brady was a once in a lifetime GOAT.

 

Edited October 28, 2018 by simpleman

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, stuvian said:

 

not true. There's no proof that our organization saw no value in these players. We had hired McDermott but not Beane at the time of this draft. terry and Kim didn't want a franchise QB being picked until the new organization under Beane was fully formed. It was all about timing.

So they didn't even consider a QB because the "timing was off".  Think about how inept that is.

[stuvian]

1 minute ago, mattynh said:

So they didn't even consider a QB because the "timing was off".  Think about how inept that is.

it makes sense to the people writing the cheques

[Matt_In_NH]

23 minutes ago, stuvian said:

it makes sense to the people writing the cheques

Inept 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

11 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Trading out of the top ten to take a first round DB to replace a young vet that they let walk in FA rather than take a potential franchise quarterback may not be sensible but it is the quintessential "Billsy" thing to do.  If the Bills FO can screw up a draft, have no doubt that they will do it.

 

 

The reason that the Bills can't hire a competent NFL gm is because the Bills GM is expected to share power with the HC and with various other FO office personnel who have too much input into football decisions, not because the Bills already had a recently drafted first round QB.   In the case of Brandon Beane, he was apparently hired primarily because of McDermott's influence. 

 

Moreover, draft picks don't have a real choice about what team that they can sign with.  Either they sign with the team that drafted them or they sit out whatever period they have to wait to become eligible for the draft again (or whatever the specific rules are). 

 

Finally, the Bills have missed on QBs because they have long tried to go the cheap route with QBs, mostly making do with lower round draft picks or other teams' discards.  Jim Kelly was the first first round QB the Bills drafted in their history.  They didn't draft another first round QB for 21 years until they took JP Losman in 2004.   They waited another 9 years to draft another QB in the first round.  Even though it was obvious early on that Manuel was a bust, the Bills finally got around to drafting another QB in the first round in 2018. 

 

 

You are incorrect about Andy Reid's QBs.  Only Patrick Mahomes (2017) and Donovan McNabb (1999) were first round picks.  Kolb was a 2nd rounder (2007).  Andy Hall was a 6th rounder (2004).  AJ Feeley was a 5th round pick in 2001.  FTR, McNabb was the only long term franchise QB from his class.

 

From what I've read many of the GM/HC are a shared position in the NFL.

[Gugny]

On 10/26/2018 at 10:28 PM, Rebel101 said:

I know I am beating a dead horse.

 

Yes, you are.  If you know this, then why create the thread?

[1ManRaid]

On 10/26/2018 at 10:40 PM, Rebel101 said:

On 10/26/2018 at 10:30 PM, Augie said:

Then why? 

Because I wanted to and that’s what this board is for. Why’d you open it, read it, and take the time to copy past and post it? 

Yeah but that’s a terrible reason. He was getting fired either way. It is still undetermined if Allen will be good or not. But yeah we def could have saved ourself a lot of picks 

I could be wrong, but I think there's rules about duplicate threads and posting in a manner that doesn't add anything new or of value to a discussion, especially when you know damn well you're beating a dead horse as you already admitted.

[Rc2catch]

12 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

This line of reasoning is not very sound.  If you are inclined to think Watson and Mahomes couldn’t succeed with Buffalo then you have to ask who possibly could AND, then you’d have to be critical of the Bills for drafting the ultimate project QB.  

 

This logic just turns into a hopeless circle.

 

our team is bad, we need a Qb.  If we take a QB, he will still suck because our team is bad.  Ok, our team is bad, we need a QB.  We will ruin him because our team is bad.  

 

If if you want to say Mahomes would be breaking records if he were a Bill, that is valid, but if you think Mahomes or Rodgers or Marino would just suck because they had this roster, is a lazy way to evaluate a QB.

 

 

I never said they would suck, but anyone who thinks they would of had the same level of success this short in their careers here given the weapons we lack would be crazy. 

 

Both guys have looked like they could be all pros in the future, my only argument is with the “someone needs to be fired cause we didn’t draft them” crowd because the odds are insanely high they would not look like the same quarterbacks here. In the future maybe but not this fast in their careers. Bills, Texans, and Chiefs are all in different stages of roster building with buffalo being the weakest. 

 

[boater]

On 10/26/2018 at 10:32 PM, stuvian said:

Mahomes is freaking Dan Marino

Sure. When coached by Andy Reid and surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

 

Mahomes would be useless here coached by a defense minded HC, and Brian "fricking" Daboll. And never mind the QB Coach who is as helpful as breasts on a bull.

 

BTW.. you are beating a dead horse.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

18 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Trading out of the top ten to take a first round DB to replace a young vet that they let walk in FA rather than take a potential franchise quarterback may not be sensible but it is the quintessential "Billsy" thing to do.  If the Bills FO can screw up a draft, have no doubt that they will do it.

 

 

The reason that the Bills can't hire a competent NFL gm is because the Bills GM is expected to share power with the HC and with various other FO office personnel who have too much input into football decisions, not because the Bills already had a recently drafted first round QB.   In the case of Brandon Beane, he was apparently hired primarily because of McDermott's influence. 

 

Moreover, draft picks don't have a real choice about what team that they can sign with.  Either they sign with the team that drafted them or they sit out whatever period they have to wait to become eligible for the draft again (or whatever the specific rules are). 

 

Finally, the Bills have missed on QBs because they have long tried to go the cheap route with QBs, mostly making do with lower round draft picks or other teams' discards.  Jim Kelly was the first first round QB the Bills drafted in their history.  They didn't draft another first round QB for 21 years until they took JP Losman in 2004.   They waited another 9 years to draft another QB in the first round.  Even though it was obvious early on that Manuel was a bust, the Bills finally got around to drafting another QB in the first round in 2018. 

 

 

You are incorrect about Andy Reid's QBs.  Only Patrick Mahomes (2017) and Donovan McNabb (1999) were first round picks.  Kolb was a 2nd rounder (2007).  Andy Hall was a 6th rounder (2004).  AJ Feeley was a 5th round pick in 2001.  FTR, McNabb was the only long term franchise QB from his class.

 

I thought Kolb was 1st rounder, guess I mis-read it, the other two, I wasn't implying they were 1st rounders, realized that.  My point being the OP was claiming as to how great of a talent evaluator in QB's Andy Reid is.  Well a 2nd rounder on Kolb wasn't very impressive, plus the bigger point would be how many in that time frame did he pass on that were likely available when he drafted; Arron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, could have traded up a couple of picks for Big Ben just to name a couple of top names.  If he was that smart, he would have easily got one of them for certain.  It just goes to the point that drafting QB's is more a crap shoot than anything.

 

13 teams passed on Mahomes and I'm sure if the other 15 behind that pick felt Mahomes was going to look as good as he has to date, they'd have moved up too.