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HC/QB Combos that win championships, have done it very quickly, this century.


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3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this.  It's an interesting concept to examine.

A few things I would like to point out however:

 

1.  Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis.  There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 

 

2.  The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL.  For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league.  Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 

 

3.  I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire.  The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more).  However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together.

 

 

 

My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild.

The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5.  It's way too early to know anything.

 

The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season.  They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league.  One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

 

 

Well thought post, thanks!

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2 hours ago, COTC said:

3 years

 

Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. 

 

Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. 

 

Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. 

 

 

We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. 

 

Year One works if the cap wasn't previously mismanaged. I don't know the Ins and outs of what was left for the new regime but was it at the stage where stopping, taking massive dead cap hit and starting again was the better option?

What I do know there were some big contacts players weren't living up to.

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3 hours ago, TPS said:

McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020.  They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP.  They will address O as much as possible next year.

 

Maybe McDermott "had a good blue print" for the 1970s or 1980s but this is 2018, and his philosophy of great defense, strong special teams, and a conservative, run heavy run game with limited passing simply isn't sustainable.  Teams that want to win consistently have to be able to score more than 1 offensive TD a game.

 

As for McDermott's supposedly "Super Bowl caliber" defense, that's hyperbole.  The D is good enough to win against limited offensive teams but not against great ones, shown by the Bills got their clocks cleaned by the three of the four good/great offensive teams they played.

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild.

The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5.  It's way too early to know anything.

 

The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season.  They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league.  One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

 

 

 

Ummm ... the Rams canned the coaching staff that ended up "DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category", and Goff was hardly "the WORST quarterback in the league".  More importantly, the Rams GM Les Snead makes the personnel decisions, including hiring the HC, not the backassward way the Bills do things with the HC answering to the owners and the GM subservient to the HC, so there's not much to compare between the Rams and Bills.

 

 

Edited by SoTier
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4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’d argue that it’s not constantly starting over, but starting over and continually failing .The amount of time it’s taking is also real, not just an apparition. 

 

Sorry, thought that would be fairly obvious.  You wouldn't constantly start over if it was working. 

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4 hours ago, COTC said:

3 years

 

Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. 

 

Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. 

 

Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. 

 

 

We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. 

 

 

Unfortnately, your year one should be offseason one. Your year two is then free agency and the draft. Your year 3 is at latest offseason two.

 

our process here has been odd at best and if we manage to only slowly blow it up and then not immediately get it right... well...

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5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

I think looking at teams around the league like the Eagles, Rams, Bears, maybe vikings; you can build a championship calibre team in 2 seasons. 

 

Season 1: Get QB in draft and then give him some on field experience, clear cap space

Season 2: go hard after FA to surround your young gun and try to make a run.

 

 

Also: hire a strong GM and let him build his roster; don’t give roster-building responsibilities to a rookie head coach.

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I think two recent examples give us insight into this exact question...

 

In 2009, Seattle finished the last of the Mike Holgrem era, 5-11 and out of the Playoffs. 

 

Then John Schneider came in from Green Bay and Pete Carroll took over. In the 2010 draft they added Okung, Earl Thomas, Walter Thurmand, Golden Tate and Kam Chancellor in the Draft, and stole Lynch for a bag of chips from Nix. In 2011 they added KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, signed Doug Baldwin as an UDRFA, and signed Brandon Browner in FA. In 2012 they finished the rebuild off with Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson. 

 

Seattle went from 7-9 (2010), 7-9 (2011) to 11-5 and the best defense in the league for the next four seasons. 

 

Stacked three good drafts in a row together.

 

 

Second example, the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2010, the snag Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins in the same draft, trade for Reggie Nelson. 2011, they get both AJ Green and Andy Dalton, signed Adam Jones. In 2012, they draft Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu, George Iloka and picked up Vontaze Burfict as an UDRFA. 

 

Their record climbed from 4-12 to 10-6 in the span, and they started to make the Playoffs routinely.  Their secondary was built on Leon Hall (1st Rounder), Jones (1st Rounder), Nelson (1st Rounder), Nate Clements (1st Rounder) and Terence Newman (1st Rounder). 

 

 

 

To answer the OP - three seasons. If you can stack three great drafts together and get a few FA's/UDRFAs to pan out you have a young team with stars everywhere. 

 

 

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  • PlayoffsPlease changed the title to HC/QB Combos that win championships, have done it very quickly, this century.
On 10/20/2018 at 4:46 PM, SoTier said:

 

As for McDermott's supposedly "Super Bowl caliber" defense, that's hyperbole.  The D is good enough to win against limited offensive teams but not against great ones, shown by the Bills got their clocks cleaned by the three of the four good/great offensive teams they played.

 

You are correct sir. 

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