hondo in seattle Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, ctk232 said: You want an Alex Smith then, not a Derek Anderson. Again, hopeful with the rest of us, but I can't see this going well outside of the fact that Indy has literally no tape on Anderson. It's skewed by his one solid year - look at his stats year to year for better trends and historical growth/decline. Not to mention, while widely used, Passer Rating has it's own statistical shortcomings. Yeah, passer rating - like every other metric of QB proficiency - is flawed. But it's suggestive. It measures something meaningful. And I think it tells us something when 4 of the 5 season that DA had at least 100 attempts, his passer rating was higher than JA's. As is his career passer rating. Ignoring numbers, here's what my eyes tell me having watched them all play: Derek is a bad starter. JA - so far - has been a very bad starter. NP has been horrific. I'll be surprised if DA doesn't play better this year than NP has. But I'd like to see Allen get back in the saddle at some point because he needs game time reps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Yeah, passer rating - like every other metric of QB proficiency - is flawed. But it's suggestive. It measures something meaningful. And I think it tells us something when 4 of the 5 season that DA had at least 100 attempts, his passer rating was higher than JA's. As is his career passer rating. Ignoring numbers, here's what my eyes tell me having watched them all play: Derek is a bad starter. JA - so far - has been a very bad starter. NP has been horrific. I'll be surprised if DA doesn't play better this year than NP has. But I'd like to see Allen get back in the saddle at some point because he needs game time reps. Agreed - comparably speaking, DA is the best option we have in the meantime and the difference from Allen shouldn't be in the wrong direction. However, don't be surprised if we can't put up points this week either, as much as I hope I'm wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said: Yeah, passer rating - like every other metric of QB proficiency - is flawed. But it's suggestive. It measures something meaningful. And I think it tells us something when 4 of the 5 season that DA had at least 100 attempts, his passer rating was higher than JA's. As is his career passer rating. Ignoring numbers, here's what my eyes tell me having watched them all play: Derek is a bad starter. JA - so far - has been a very bad starter. NP has been horrific. I'll be surprised if DA doesn't play better this year than NP has. But I'd like to see Allen get back in the saddle at some point because he needs game time reps. Couldn't have said it better myself.? I'm trying to keep a few thoughts separate here: - Allen has been awful/Peterman horrific. No argument from anyone - Derek Anderson is a very poor starter, and kind of a career mediocre backup who now has significant mileage on him. No arguments on that either. - Do guys like Derek Anderson, when signed as "emergency QBs" with little prep time, perform according to their historical baseline, or do they perform awfully? (because of the combination of mediocrity + little practice) Weirdly, I think the answer is "they tend to perform according to their historical baseline." So that's why I'm expecting the same old (well, older) Derek Anderson on Sunday. Not a good performance, but maybe adequate? Adequate is an improvement for the Bills this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 8 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Disagree with this. Tom Brady's past outcomes are a friggin' great predictor of his future outcomes because ... he's really good. The point is that past performance is often quite indicative of future performance because it's a reflection of talent. Granted, we're talking about this issue in the context of QB dumpster diving, so it's a little hard to see! There is a causal link as you are talking about the same player. Is the performance of every other quarterback named Tom and indication of how Tom Brady will perform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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