Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[Elite Poster]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I watch it. It's awesome. And a curse for people who don't know what they are watching, or claim guys are wide open a second after the QB has already looked at them when they weren't open and on to his second or third progression. 

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I enjoy the all-22s for what they are, which is a good view of how plays are designed and how they develop. But they are being wildly misused by internet scouts. I saw someone on Twitter last week breaking down an all-22 for Aaron Rodgers against the Redskins and pointing out all these open receivers he should have thrown the ball to. Somehow I trust Aaron Rodgers's progressions and knowledge of the play over some guy with an overhead view of the entire field.

Yep. It's as bad for football discussion as it is good, but I'm quite glad they have it.

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

It's not widely known, but Shanahan has never actually spoken to Beathard since he has been there. CJ has did this two game hot streak all on his own.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

[Elite Poster]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Yep. It's as bad for football discussion as it is good, but I'm quite glad they have it.

It's not widely known, but Shanahan has never actually spoken to Beathard since he has been there. CJ has did this two game hot streak all on his own.

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

I think that's what DElitePoster means, yes.

[Elite Poster]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

 

Um, yes. You might want to look up Joshy boy's stats. The greatest part of this post, is that Josh is actually worse in every single category mentioned...

Edited October 16, 2018 by Elite Poster

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

They started Nate Freakin' Peterman, put him in again to similar results, and are now threatening to pull that caper again.

 

And did you watch Beathard's first five games on All-22?

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

 

You should probably quit with this argument now...each post is making it look more foolish.

 

For example, CJ Beatherd's "average level NFL accuracy" helped him complete a whopping 56.5% of his passes as a senior--nearly identical to Josh Allen's senior season.  And as @HappyDays just pointed out, his rookie performance was nearly identical to Allen as well.

[Elite Poster]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

They started Nate Freakin' Peterman, put him in again to similar results, and are now threatening to pull that caper again.

 

And did you watch Beathard's first five games on All-22?

 

At least we agree on something.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Um, yes. You might want to look up Joshy Boys stats. 

 

If you include his rushing they are almost exactly the same as rookies. How about you give him a year to see how his development goes instead of writing hinlm off?

[Elite Poster]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You should probably quit with this argument now...each post is making it look more foolish.

 

For example, CJ Beatherd's "average level NFL accuracy" helped him complete a whopping 56.5% of his passes as a senior--nearly identical to Josh Allen's senior season.  And as @HappyDays just pointed out, his rookie performance was nearly identical to Allen as well.

 

I see, so a prospect drafted to be an NFL backup for it's entire career is comparable to our 7th overall and I'm an idiot for thinking that might be an issue. I never said their careers have been defined this early, but the topic of this thread is Josh is progressing well and is comparable to his peers. That isn't true. 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you include his rushing they are almost exactly the same as rookies. How about you give him a year to see how his development goes instead of writing hinlm off?

 

This is where my initial point is lost. I'm not writing anyone off. The topic of this thread was he is progressing well and is comparable to the others in this class. I simply stated he's more comparable to slightly worse than Beathard. Which it seems you guys are agreeing to now????

Edited October 16, 2018 by Elite Poster

[thebandit27]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

I see, so a prospect drafted to be an NFL backup for it's entire career is comparable to our 7th overall and I'm an idiot for thinking that might be an issue. I never said their careers have been defined this early, but the topic of this thread is Josh is progressing well and is comparable to his peers. That isn't true. 

 

Well, I didn't call you an idiot, but if that's how you feel...

 

What I am saying, and have repeatedly said, is that it's extremely common for rookies to struggle in certain areas, and that what Allen is showing is no different than what many rookies before him that were asked to play before they were ready showed.  I've used examples like Goff, Trubisky, and yes, Beatherd fits the bill as well.

 

All 4 of them have eerily similar stats through 6 NFL games.  So I'll ask you: are you at all concerned about Mitchell Trubisky or Jared Goff since Beatherd's numbers are very similar to their rookie numbers?  Conversely, is Beatherd destined to become Jared Goff because their rookie performances are nearly identical?

 

Perhaps, when it's stated this way, the point will make more sense.

[zow2]

I'm done with comparing/hoping our guy is another Jared Goff.   Josh Allen is completely different and a big project.  Again, how many of these project QBs have ever made it big?

 

A quick look at Goff's stats show his final year at Cal he had a 64.5% completion% and 43 TD passes.    That was against Pac-12 talent not Mountain West or whatever,,

 

So clearly Goff was a proven high % passer in college and probably just needed the NFL game to slow down for him, plus McVay's guidance,

 

A

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I'm done with comparing/hoping our guy is another Jared Goff.   Josh Allen is completely different and a big project.  Again, how many of these project QBs have ever made it big?

 

A quick look at Goff's stats show his final year at Cal he had a 64.5% completion% and 43 TD passes.    That was against Pac-12 talent not Mountain West or whatever,,

 

So clearly Goff was a proven high % passer in college and probably just needed the NFL game to slow down for him, plus McVay's guidance,

 

A

 

Nobody said Allen is, was, or will be Goff, and I'm amazed that somehow people are still thinking that that's the point.

 

As for what Goff needed, he probably needed the game to slow down and McVay's guidance, but the fact that they added Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, and Tyler Higbee in a single offseason might have made a difference as well.  Then, of course, there's the fact that he actually had a full NFL offseason under his belt.

[Teddy KGB]

48 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Newsflash, just watch the All-22. He HAS guys open, he HAS clean pockets, and he's making awful mistakes. Is his supporting cast great? Hell no. Are there opportunities to make plays? Hell yes! You just keep reiterating yourself instead of actually responding to these points and making this a meaningful conversation. You are stuck in your own ignorance. Don't bother responding. 

 

Your crusade has you seeing red.  

 

Maybe save the drama for Allen’s sophomore season? 

[Reed83HOF]

I haven't checked any of this out, but its hilarious...

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/week-6-passing-stats-the-bills-are-above-average-at-passing-for-1941/

 

They are averaging 2.0 ANY/A and have reached the cellar by being bad at every facet of the passing game.  The Bills rank last in the league in completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing touchdown rate, and yards per attempt. The Bills also have the worst sack rate *and* the worst interception rate in the NFL.

 

In 1941, the league average completion percentage was 44.3%; the 2018 Bills are completing passes at a 50.6% clip.

In 1941, the average NFL team gained 122 passing yards per game; the 2018 Bills are gaining 123 passing yards per game.

In 1941, NFL teams threw an interception on 10% of passes; the 2018 Bills have thrown an interception on 7.3% of passes.

 

But if you pick any year more recent than 1941, you might think Buffalo was a below-average passing team.  The league average completion percentage has been over 50.6% in every season since 1961. When it comes to interceptions, 1975 and 1971 are the only post-merger seasons where the league average more than 1.5 interceptions per game.  And in passing yards per game?  It’s been higher than Buffalo’s current average in every season beginning in 1942.

 

If you want to use yards per attempt, you have to go back to 1935 to find a season where Buffalo’s current 5.39 Y/A average would be above average.   The last time the league average ANY/A was below 2.0 was in 1938, and the NFL has never had a NY/A average as poor as the 2018 Bills.

[Success]

I can’t believe the level of passion some have AGAINST Allen at this point.

 

What did people expect?  He wasn’t even supposed to play this year.  He looks exactly as I figured he would - and he has actually made a few nice plays.

 

it hasn’t even been 5 games.  This board loved him after Minnesota. Just a few games since, and half of the fan base already seems done with him.

[BullBuchanan]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

How many people kept spouting off a 60% completion rate as if it was the be all and end all of how to tell if a guy can be successful?

 

What evidence do you have exactly that this isn't true? I made this argument over and over, and it's holding true, just like it does 99% of the time. Allen is faltering.

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

What evidence do you have exactly that this isn't true? I made this argument over and over, and it's holding true, just like it does 99% of the time. Allen is faltering.

 

Goff faltered too.     Chill on the self kudos

[nbbillsfan]

Anyone who is not dissapointed in Allen thus far just doesn't get it. Guy has simply not played the position well, at all. He has run the ball well for a QB, but you know it is a bad sign when the best thrown ball of the last few games came from Nate fricken Peterman. They days of QB's needing a year to be productive are over, there plentiful examples of guys coming in and showing a ton of potential, as a passer, early on. There are not many examples, however, of guys struggling to complete passes at the rate Josh has, who were able to overcome that.

 

I like Josh, he has ton's of talent and seems to have a great work ethic and drive. He is miles behind mentally and accuracy wise. We will see if hard work and determination can drastically improve those areas; however, history has not been kind to QB's with these issues. The best thing I can say about the kid, is that if anyone can beat the odds, I think it could be him.