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Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs


Troll Toll

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I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

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12 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

great post I totally agree. I love a lot of what I see In Josh. A couple of games sitting down will do him good with his Injury. Most of the bitching is coming from the Rosen Fan Boys and WGR crew who simply can’t hate Josh Allen enough. Especially Mike Shoope and Jeremy White. 

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6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

False! He's truthfully behind the curve of the others as expected.  

None of these guys are > 60% completions. Statistically, I’d group Allen, Rosen, Mayfield together. Darnold’s numbers are slightly better, but he has had the easiest schedule. Eyeball test too, I’m not seeing much separation amongst these QBs.

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3 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Says the guy who stanned for Tyrod 

 

You don’t “know” QBs at all

 

please, let's not drag TT into this conversation, I'm glad his gone and Browns fans are happy he's benched. Le'ts look forwards. 

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1 minute ago, Troll Toll said:

None of these guys are > 60% completions. Statistically, I’d group Allen, Rosen, Mayfield together. Darnold’s numbers are slightly better, but he has had the easiest schedule. Eyeball test too, I’m not seeing much separation amongst these QBs.

 

Your eyeballs need adjustment.  Allen looks lost out there all too often.  By any objective measure he's behind. 

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4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He was the best QB on the Bills.  That is all that mattered.  Tyrod isn't part of the conversation despite your sad obsession. 

 

Just entered it as evidence.   

 

You cant be trusted to tell us definitive statements regarding qb play 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

Those other QBs might not be lighting the world on fire but they look like real QBs, meaning that they will actually stand in the pocket, go threw progressions and make a throw. Allen has done very little of that and they are much better when it comes to accuracy. Allen usually does what Tyrod did by making one read and then taking off and his accuracy on simple 5 yard passes a lot of the time are awful

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Allen looks just like what I expected and I’d never seen him play a single down of college football. He was reportedly a bit wild at times and he has been. He reportedly had a big arm and he does. He was reportedly a good athlete with his size and he is. What he lacks is experience, which he’s getting. NEXT

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The team is 2-2 in games in games Allen started and finished.  The team is 0-2 in games he did not start and finish.  Compared with the other rookie QBs his effectiveness in helping his team win games is as good as theirs. 

 

Allen has had some very good plays.  He has made some plays I am pretty sure the other rookies cannot.  Allen has had some very good plays nullified by drops,  These good plays have included accurate  passes to all areas of the field, and running plays that cannot be made by any other QB in the NFL other than Cam Newton.  He has been pretty good at not turning the ball over.

 

Allen has had some dud plays too. Holding the ball too long.  Some inaccurate throws. Some poor decision making in the pocket.  Right now these are called rookie mistakes.  If they continue into the middle of next year, then they will be called "bad QB" mistakes. 

If Allen increases the number of good plays and correspondingly reduces the dud plays, he will be heading in the direction of being a very good QB. 

If the team adds no additional play makers on offense, and the ratio of good plays to bad plays by Allen stays the same, and the playbook stays as limited as it is now, then the Bills offense will continue to be bad. Time will tell. 

 

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I hope he will be OK. Not going to lie, one thing that bothers me is that for a guy with such a strong arm he looks to have awful deep throws.

 

Maybe this elbow thing has been lingering for a while?

Edited by Binghamton Beast
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