THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - One That Got Away

[Shaw66]

Road wins in the NFL are big.  The Bills had a road win in their hands on Sunday, leading the Houston Texans by 3 with a couple of minutes left in the game.

 

The Bills let it get away.  Good teams win games like that.  The Bills aren’t good, not yet.  They look like they could be good, but they aren’t. 

 

Let’s state the obvious:

 

·         Special teams killed the Bills on Sunday.  Fumbled punt, blocked punt.  Both led to points.

·         Penalties killed the Bills on Sunday. 

·         Peterman killed the Bills on Sunday.  He simply cannot – CANNOT - throw an interception at that place on the field with the score tied.  The second interception wasn’t much better.  He just doesn’t see the field well enough yet, and I don’t know when he’ll get enough playing time to learn to see it better.  He looks like he needs to throw about 75 interceptions before he gets it.  And since this is the last I’ll say about Peterman, his touchdown throw was spectacular.

·         The Bills defense did enough to win the game.  The pass rush was great.

 

On to the less obvious.

 

One pattern that’s emerged over the past year and a half is that the Bills are a second-half team.  Especially with a limited offense, McDermott plays a conservative game for 30 minutes.  His objective is to stay within striking distance, because he expects his team to win the second half. 

 

They did that Sunday.  He needed his defense to get the stop at the end of the first half against the Texans, and they got it.  Then the defense turned the ball over to start the second half, and the Bills were in business. 

 

Of course, that pattern looks suspiciously like the style of play we saw when Dick Jauron coached the Bills: solid defense, stay close, run the clock, find a way to win (or lose) in the end.  That style is great to get you to .500; unfortunately, it’s also great to keep you at .500. 

 

There were signs of life on the offense.  Kelvin Benjamin ran some nice routes and made several nice catches, including going high for Allen’s off-balance throw deep down the left sideline that was called back.  Zay Jones looked like a real NFL receiver.  The Bills ran another wideout screen, and they found Clay over the middle nicely.  No one was mistaking the Bills passing game for the Chiefs or the Rams, but they made plays.  The Bills need more of it. 

 

LeSean McCoy is a player.  I say it every week, because the guy comes to play every week.

 

Tre White also is a player, and I haven’t been saying that.  Nobody throws at him.  Hopkins’ touchdown was what everyone has come to expect from Hopkins – an outstanding football play by an outstanding player.  White was right there; Hopkins just won that time.   That will happen. 

 

I think the Bills win the game, if Allen hadn’t been injured.  (Not that it mattered, but wasn’t that roughing the passer?  They have those rules to protect the passer, and then they don’t call it.)  Why do I think the Bills would have won?  One, because Allen understands ball security and won’t throw the INT at the end of the game.   Two, because he would have completed the pass on the play after his injury.  Three, because he’s a good QB.  Yes, he made a couple of poor throws again on Sunday, gimme throws that he needs to complete.  But I can live with that.  I love his pocket awareness, his escapability.  His running ability was on display again this week.  His running is an important weapon.

 

Compare Allen’s scramble to the right and completion over the middle to someone – McCoy or Clay – with Watson’s interception to Poyer.  More or less the same play, from the QB’s point of view.  The rule for young QBs is don’t throw late over the middle.  Not because it doesn’t work, but because young QBs don’t see the field well enough and don’t see some defender lurking.  Allen knew he had the throw and made it; Watson thought he had the throw, but almost from the moment he let it go you could see that Poyer could make a play.  We’ve seen Allen make very few rookie mistakes like Watson's. 

 

The Bills have their quarterback.

 

JJ Watt is extraordinary.  He made some plays on Sunday that were better than any play most guys make in a season.  Amazing quickness, strength and awareness.  And still, the Bills offensive line held up nicely, giving Allen time and giving McCoy room to run.  Offensive lines are having trouble all over the league.  I’ll say again what I’ve been saying all season – the Bills talent on the oline isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible.  Coaching makes the difference.  What else explains keeping Allen and Peterman upright against Watt and Clowney and Mercilus?

 

Meanwhile, Bills fans are the BEST!  Talk about travelling well!  Bills’ blue was all over the stadium on Sunday, and Bills fans were making noise.  The spontaneous chants were coming from Bills fans, not Texans fans. 

 

Bills blue was all over my hotel near the stadium, too. 

 

At lunch on Saturday a guy walked into the place wearing a Bills cap and got a few friendly boos.  I went over to talk to him.  Guy lives in Brooklyn, NY, has season tickets and goes to all the away games!  Sixteen games a year. 

 

Saturday night was the best.  We went to Christians Tailgate, the Houston Bills Backer bar, and we were blown away.  The place was packed.  The block was closed off, and the street was FULL of Bills fans.  There must have been 2000 people there, maybe 3,000.  Everyone was having a good time.  Just the noise was amazing!  (Being an old geezer, it was too loud for me, I’m usually done after one drink, anyway, so we found a place around the corner to have a beer and a burger and went home.  Can’t miss that beauty rest, you know.)

 

What now?  I like this team.  I like their intensity, their discipline.  I liked it with Jauron’s teams, too.  The Bills need to amp up the offense, and we saw a few signs of that Sunday. 

 

I’m worried about Allen.  The Bills need him on the field.  Right elbow injuries are problematic for throwers.  Assuming the Bills can get him back, I’m still expecting the Bills to be a pretty good team during the second half of the season. If Allen can't go, I hope Anderson can.

 

The Colts are another winnable road game, so the Bills have a chance to redeem themselves.  Time’s awastin.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Road wins in the NFL are big.  The Bills had a road win in their hands on Sunday, leading the Houston Texans by 3 with a couple of minutes left in the game.

 

The Bills let it get away.  Good teams win games like that.  The Bills aren’t good, not yet.  They look like they could be good, but they aren’t. 

 

Let’s state the obvious:

 

·         Special teams killed the Bills on Sunday.  Fumbled punt, blocked punt.  Both led to points.

·         Penalties killed the Bills on Sunday. 

·         Peterman killed the Bills on Sunday.  He simply cannot – CANNOT - throw an interception at that place on the field with the score tied.  The second interception wasn’t much better.  He just doesn’t see the field well enough yet, and I don’t know when he’ll get enough playing time to learn to see it better.  He looks like he needs to throw about 75 interceptions before he gets it.  And since this is the last I’ll say about Peterman, his touchdown throw was spectacular.

·         The Bills defense did enough to win the game.  The pass rush was great.

 

On to the less obvious.

 

One pattern that’s emerged over the past year and a half is that the Bills are a second-half team.  Especially with a limited offense, McDermott plays a conservative game for 30 minutes.  His objective is to stay within striking distance, because he expects his team to win the second half. 

 

They did that Sunday.  He needed his defense to get the stop at the end of the first half against the Texans, and they got it.  Then the defense turned the ball over to start the second half, and the Bills were in business. 

 

Of course, that pattern looks suspiciously like the style of play we saw when Dick Jauron coached the Bills: solid defense, stay close, run the clock, find a way to win (or lose) in the end.  That style is great to get you to .500; unfortunately, it’s also great to keep you at .500. 

 

There were signs of life on the offense.  Kelvin Benjamin ran some nice routes and made several nice catches, including going high for Allen’s off-balance throw deep down the left sideline that was called back.  Zay Jones looked like a real NFL receiver.  The Bills ran another wideout screen, and they found Clay over the middle nicely.  No one was mistaking the Bills passing game for the Chiefs or the Rams, but they made plays.  The Bills need more of it. 

 

LeSean McCoy is a player.  I say it every week, because the guy comes to play every week.

 

Tre White also is a player, and I haven’t been saying that.  Nobody throws at him.  Hopkins’ touchdown was what everyone has come to expect from Hopkins – an outstanding football play by an outstanding player.  White was right there; Hopkins just won that time.   That will happen. 

 

I think the Bills win the game, if Allen hadn’t been injured.  (Not that it mattered, but wasn’t that roughing the passer?  They have those rules to protect the passer, and then they don’t call it.)  Why do I think the Bills would have won?  One, because Allen understands ball security and won’t throw the INT at the end of the game.   Two, because he would have completed the pass on the play after his injury.  Three, because he’s a good QB.  Yes, he made a couple of poor throws again on Sunday, gimme throws that he needs to complete.  But I can live with that.  I love his pocket awareness, his escapability.  His running ability was on display again this week.  His running is an important weapon.

 

Compare Allen’s scramble to the right and completion over the middle to someone – McCoy or Clay – with Watson’s interception to Poyer.  More or less the same play, from the QB’s point of view.  The rule for young QBs is don’t throw late over the middle.  Not because it doesn’t work, but because young QBs don’t see the field well enough and don’t see some defender lurking.  Allen knew he had the throw and made it; Watson thought he had the throw, but almost from the moment he let it go you could see that Poyer could make a play.  We’ve seen Allen make very few rookie mistakes like Watson's. 

 

The Bills have their quarterback.

 

JJ Watt is extraordinary.  He made some plays on Sunday that were better than any play most guys make in a season.  Amazing quickness, strength and awareness.  And still, the Bills offensive line held up nicely, giving Allen time and giving McCoy room to run.  Offensive lines are having trouble all over the league.  I’ll say again what I’ve been saying all season – the Bills talent on the oline isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible.  Coaching makes the difference.  What else explains keeping Allen and Peterman upright against Watt and Clowney and Mercilus?

 

Meanwhile, Bills fans are the BEST!  Talk about travelling well!  Bills’ blue was all over the stadium on Sunday, and Bills fans were making noise.  The spontaneous chants were coming from Bills fans, not Texans fans. 

 

Bills blue was all over my hotel near the stadium, too. 

 

At lunch on Saturday a guy walked into the place wearing a Bills cap and got a few friendly boos.  I went over to talk to him.  Guy lives in Brooklyn, NY, has season tickets and goes to all the away games!  Sixteen games a year. 

 

Saturday night was the best.  We went to Christians Tailgate, the Houston Bills Backer bar, and we were blown away.  The place was packed.  The block was closed off, and the street was FULL of Bills fans.  There must have been 2000 people there, maybe 3,000.  Everyone was having a good time.  Just the noise was amazing!  (Being an old geezer, it was too loud for me, I’m usually done after one drink, anyway, so we found a place around the corner to have a beer and a burger and went home.  Can’t miss that beauty rest, you know.)

 

What now?  I like this team.  I like their intensity, their discipline.  I liked it with Jauron’s teams, too.  The Bills need to amp up the offense, and we saw a few signs of that Sunday. 

 

I’m worried about Allen.  The Bills need him on the field.  Right elbow injuries are problematic for throwers.  Assuming the Bills can get him back, I’m still expecting the Bills to be a pretty good team during the second half of the season. If Allen can't go, I hope Anderson can.

 

The Colts are another winnable road game, so the Bills have a chance to redeem themselves.  Time’s awastin.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

  Even with all that has transpired in the last 36 hours the Colts game is still winnable if the Bills impose their will.  Then reaching .500 will be hanging there like fresh meat hanging on a string for wild dogs to seize upon against the Pats.  

[DBilz2500]

Allen is a good QB? You lost me there....

[Fixxxer]

Jauron teams were pushovers, teams ran the ball on us at will.  He was a gentleman, though. 

[Happy]

This Bills team's defense is much better than the Jauron era defenses, from what I recall.  But McD is a little too conservative, which has been pointed out numerous times.

With a competent offense, this is a good Bills team, though not championship caliber until coaching decisions revolve around play to win, an not play not to lose.

[quinnearlysghost88]

23 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

Allen is a good QB? You lost me there....

exactly! he needs to have already thrown 25 TDs by now, in his sixth game ever. he needs to be just like Darnold. Who has...wait...a 7th and 17th ranked RB behind him compared to our 30th ranked RB. Run sets up the pass. In our case, pass sets up another 3rd and long for our guy to get blitzed on. 

[JPP]

I just dont think much will get accomplished this season until this regime puts as much effort if fixing this offense with the same urgency as they did with the defence throughout the offseason-tc etc......frustrations are very high all around.....we have what looks like a top 5.....hell a top 3 defence but a dead last offense as a whole.......a little balance would of been nice......

[NoSaint]

I’ve gotta ask- what about that play was roughing the passer?

[Warcodered]

Seriously the Bills Offense and Defense should of been tied if not ahead them in the 3rd before they lost Allen. That's ignoring the Special Teams gift of at least 6 points. If Allen was able to finish that game they're is a serious chance they could of pulled it off still.

[DBilz2500]

12 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

exactly! he needs to have already thrown 25 TDs by now, in his sixth game ever. he needs to be just like Darnold. Who has...wait...a 7th and 17th ranked RB behind him compared to our 30th ranked RB. Run sets up the pass. In our case, pass sets up another 3rd and long for our guy to get blitzed on. 

That's not my point at all. Even with so little weapons and a below average line he still looks way too raw for me to think of him as "good." More appropriate to just call him a work in progress. 

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’ve gotta ask- what about that play was roughing the passer?

Well, based on the way roughing the passer was called about 20 years, nothing.  But based on how the penalty has evolved, and how it's been called several times this season, both the first guy who hit him, and definitely Mercilus, who hit him on his right arm, should have pulled up.   There was absolutely no reason for Mercilus to have hit him.  The ball was out well before he got there, he saw the ball was out, and he should have stopped.  I think the Mercilus hit is the one that injured Allen's elbow.  

[Bill_with_it]

Good post shaw

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

This Bills team's defense is much better than the Jauron era defenses, from what I recall.  But McD is a little too conservative, which has been pointed out numerous times.

With a competent offense, this is a good Bills team, though not championship caliber until coaching decisions revolve around play to win, an not play not to lose.

I didn't say the offenses were the same, and I didn't say the defenses were the same.  I said the style was the same.  Keep the score low, run the clock, try to win the game late.  

45 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

That's not my point at all. Even with so little weapons and a below average line he still looks way too raw for me to think of him as "good." More appropriate to just call him a work in progress. 

What does "raw" mean?  That's this year's favorite criticism of a Bills QB.  What does it mean?   What's wrong with his game that needs to be corrected?

[JoPar_v2]

Thanks shaw. I mean I wouldn’t say for certain the Bills have their QB yet - anyone throwing for between 80-130 yards a game seems like an unfinished, unknown product at this point. But Allen is further along than I thought he’d be at this point.

 

And thanks again - after the deluge of whiny, hyperbolic threads the last 2 days yours is excellent to read.

[Success]

Interesting observation about being a 2nd half team under McD.  I guess it’s better than being a 1st half team, though I would hope the goal is to become a 60 minute team.

 

I agree that we have found our QB.  I have found the overall discussion about Allen since yesterday to be mystifying.  He is tough and competes as hard as any QB we have had.  His arm is incredible.  The stats aren’t good, but who cares right now?  Keep giving him experience, then spend all that cap money and extra draft picks building a real line and surrounding him with talented weapons, and he can light up the league next year.

 

I’m still believing this season, though.  Beat the Colts, and let’s see if we can even that record up against the Pats.

[DBilz2500]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't say the offenses were the same, and I didn't say the defenses were the same.  I said the style was the same.  Keep the score low, run the clock, try to win the game late.  

What does "raw" mean?  That's this year's favorite criticism of a Bills QB.  What does it mean?   What's wrong with his game that needs to be corrected?

What's wrong you ask? Footwork, accuracy, pre-snap reads, to name a few. I was a Division 1 QB and started for 2 years. The jump from HS to college was tremendous and I can't even imagine the jump from college to the NFL 

[Uncle Joe]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

One pattern that’s emerged over the past year and a half is that the Bills are a second-half team.  Especially with a limited offense, McDermott plays a conservative game for 30 minutes.  His objective is to stay within striking distance, because he expects his team to win the second half. 

 

 

I have been waiting years, ok - at least a decade, to see a Bill's team that made effective half time adjustments.

4 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

What's wrong you ask? Footwork, accuracy, pre-snap reads, to name a few. I was a Division 1 QB and started for 2 years. The jump from HS to college was tremendous and I can't even imagine the jump from college to the NFL 

Each level at any sport tends to weed out the athletes based on their weaknesses that will get exploited at the next level. Some advance on talent, some on hard work, some are lucky enough to have both.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Thanks shaw. I mean I wouldn’t say for certain the Bills have their QB yet - anyone throwing for between 80-130 yards a game seems like an unfinished, unknown product at this point. But Allen is further along than I thought he’d be at this point.

 

And thanks again - after the deluge of whiny, hyperbolic threads the last 2 days yours is excellent to read.

That's well put.  I too thought Allen would be a problem this year, but almost from the get go I've surprised and pleased.  Pleased with:

 

Pocket presence compared to the average rookie

Ability to shake tacklers in the pocket

Escapability

Arm

Decision making compared to the average rookie

Running

Ability to throw on the run, going left or right.  

 

He isn't throwing for a lot yards be. cause (1) he doesn't have a lot of attempts, (2) he doesn't have receivers who can get deep, (3) until recently he had no time for deep patterns to develop and (4) I'm sure he's missing some opportunities to go deep because he just isn't seeing everything yet.  

 

He has some touch and accuracy problems on short balls, but that's easily correctable over the next year. 

 

Nothing I've seen looks like a long-term problem, and most of what I've seen is really good for a rookie.

[billspro]

I hope you’re right about Allen. He did look like he was settling in right before he got injured. He made his best throw of the year to KB on that play. It gives me hope.

[DCBongo]

Thanks Shaw66, your outlook gives comfort after watching one get away.