Andy Benoit: The Good, the Bad, and the Season Outlook for the NFL’s Rookie Quarterbacks; Added Any Given Sunday Write Up from FBO's Rivers McCown

[ILBillsfan]

You keep drafting QBs til you get it right

[VW82]

11 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Wtf he is 4 games into his career and is 2-2.

 

He's played 18 quarters plus preseason of NFL football. It isn't too early to make some observations about where he is in his development. I'm not suggesting he's a finished product or won't make it. But the early signs suggest he has a long ways to go, and according to Andy Benoit maybe the longest out of any QB in recent memory as far as football IQ.

 

Again, I don't think we should just assume "better weapons" is the answer here. Let's see if he develops at all first before we hard commit to the Allen era.  

10 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Look at what the Jets gave up to move up for a guy that is basically on par with Allen at this point a cost them 3 2nd rounders.  I'd call it a steal to get Allen with the amount of picks given up.

 

And I'm not an Allen drum thumper, just pointing out what is wrong and what other teams are doing.

 

This isn't about the picks. If he's good it's worth it to overpay. I think virtually everyone who isn't a hard core Bills fan would agree that Allen is not on par with Darnold at this point. Not even close. That isn't to say that Allen might not one day surpass him. But in terms of where they are re NFL sophistication, Darnold and Baker are light years ahead. I haven't seen much of the AZ kid yet. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by VW82

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

He's played 18 quarters plus preseason of NFL football. It isn't too early to make some observations about where he is in his development. I'm not suggesting he's a finished product or won't make it. But the early signs suggest he has a long ways to go, and according to Andy Benoit maybe the longest way out of any QB in recent memory as far as football IQ.

 

Again, I don't think we should just assume "better weapons" is the answer here. Let's see if he develops at all first before we hard commit to the Allen era.  

18 quarters wow.  That's 270 minutes.  When you put it that way and add in the character who is self promoting you've convinced me.  No reason to give him a 271st. 

 

[VW82]

10 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

18 quarters wow.  That's 270 minutes.  When you put it that way and add in the character who is self promoting you've convinced me.  No reason to give him a 271st. 

 

 

You're the only one talking about him not playing anymore (even if it's just to be facetious). Obviously he needs more time.

 

The question I raised is does it make sense to commit a bunch of other resources next off season to build around Allen if he hasn't improved considerably from where he is today? I think that's a fair question. Many here seem to be taking the default position of "it's not his fault because he's a rookie and the Oline and WRs suck so we can't objectively rate his performance." That's crap. You have to take that into consideration but it's clear he'd be having the same problems with better teammates because of how tremendously raw he is. He's so raw it's fair to question whether he'll ever improve enough to be successful, and it's worth monitoring that improvement over the course of the year so we can make a more informed decision about him in the off season.  

Edited October 11, 2018 by VW82

[Inigo Montoya]

Josh Allen is exactly who we all thought he was coming out of the draft, a freakishly athletic QB with a howitzer of an arm and good leadership skills who was going to need to work on his accuracy and need some time to develop his game. 

 

Now that he is playing, all these incredibly knowledgeable national media types are pointing out that he is a freakishly athletic QB with a howitzer of an arm and good leadership skills who needs to work on his accuracy and needs some time to develop his game.

 

Their next earth shattering expose will be about how water is wet.

[nedboy7]

This is funny how upset everyone is!  Is he really that far off?  He didn’t say he is a bust. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

53 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Funny part is, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen are ranked 40, 42, 44 and 46 respectively in terms of completions and the bills have no one in their WR group that can run a route let alone catch a ball.

 

Allen has been off the mark in some games and has made bad throws at times but I don't think he's that far off from the others that were drafted.

 

I don't know.  I *think*, from what I've seen, that Mayfield and Rosen are further ahead.  They don't seem to need to worry about whether their fundamental ball-throwing mechanics will come apart and make them inaccurate on quick slants, crossers and dumpoffs.  I don't say that to pick on Allen, that's just a fact that he and his coaches have openly acknowledged.  He's got to work on an aspect of his game, his fundamental throwing skills, that those guys don't.   (Darnold has fundamentals work to do too, as does Jackson)

 

So here's a question.  This is the noted "who were you throwing to, Holmes or Benjamin?  Did Holmes quit on his route, were you guys not on the same page, and if he'd kept going would he have been able to catch it?" 3rd and 9.  Now I have no idea how Allen is being coached.  Maybe he was told "take a deeper shot on this one so they know you will, we're OK punting".  But meanwhile, look at that lonely goatherd - I mean, TE.  Yeah, he's not far from the LOS, but he's got enough real estate around him that I bet he could move the sticks. (that's Logan Thomas). 

 

 

I could be wrong, but I think Mayfield sees it, and Rosen sees it. 

On the other hand, maybe they don't have a guy downfield who stops on his route.

And we don't know how Allen was coached there, all I know is he never gave Thomas a glance.

 

Just to leave us with something sweeter, here's a successful pass to Clay.  Leads him beautifully, perfect height, "come to Papa" (the ball is the little smudge at 48 1/2 yds above the hashes, and you can see by Clay's hands where he expects it to go).

 

 

[Bangarang]

Pretty fair assessment

[jahnyc]

Allen is really raw and it shows.  He has a lot of natural gifts, including arm strength and good athleticism, but he is a project. He also has come into arguably the worst situation of the four rookie QBs in terms of talent around him and overall support (in terms of coaching on offense, QB coaching and veteran support (which hopefully will be better now with the arrival of Anderson)).  He does seem less developed in many respects compared to Darnold and Mayfield.

 

I do think it is a good thing for him to play this season.  We do not have five years for him to develop.  He needs to show improvement during this season and next for us to have some confidence that he can be the guy at QB.

[Inigo Montoya]

45 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

He's played 18 quarters plus preseason of NFL football. It isn't too early to make some observations about where he is in his development. I'm not suggesting he's a finished product or won't make it. But the early signs suggest he has a long ways to go, and according to Andy Benoit maybe the longest out of any QB in recent memory as far as football IQ.

 

Again, I don't think we should just assume "better weapons" is the answer here. Let's see if he develops at all first before we hard commit to the Allen era.  

 

This isn't about the picks. If he's good it's worth it to overpay. I think virtually everyone who isn't a hard core Bills fan would agree that Allen is not on par with Darnold at this point. Not even close. That isn't to say that Allen might not one day surpass him. But in terms of where they are re NFL sophistication, Darnold and Baker are light years ahead. I haven't seen much of the AZ kid yet. 

 

I think VW82 has a good point.  We just can't assume that Allen is our franchise QB.  Time will tell.  Where I might differ from VW82 (and I don't want to put words in his mouth) is that I don't think that we will be able to pull the plug on Allen after just this season if he doesn't develop as much as we'd like.  It might take more than a single season for him to develop ala Manning and Favre.  Look at Goff, a total bust his rookie year who blossomed his second because of better coaching.  I also think it is fair to point out that Allen doesn't have the strongest supporting cast right now to help his development. I don't think that is making excuses for him, just stating a fact.

 

Like many here, I would have preferred Allen sit the entire year and learn behind a vet QB like Mahomes did, but here we are throwing him into the deep end of the pool and yelling at him to move his arms and kick his feet. I am a big McBeane supporter, but if you want to lay the lion's share of blame for this situation at McBeane's feet, I think that's fair. 

 

We live in an impatient society where everyone wants results immediately.  You cook some meals in a microwave and others in a crock pot.  It might be that Allen is more of a crock potter.  It will be worth the wait if he develops.  I'm willing to give him an honest chance to do so.  One season with this supporting cast is not a fair chance in my opinion.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Inigo Montoya

[The Wiz]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know.  I *think*, from what I've seen, that Mayfield and Rosen are further ahead.  They don't seem to need to worry about whether their fundamental ball-throwing mechanics will come apart and make them inaccurate on quick slants, crossers and dumpoffs.  I don't say that to pick on Allen, that's just a fact that he and his coaches have openly acknowledged.  He's got to work on an aspect of his game, his fundamental throwing skills, that those guys don't.   (Darnold has fundamentals work to do too, as does Jackson)

 

So here's a question.  This is the noted "who were you throwing to, Holmes or Benjamin?  Did Holmes quit on his route, were you guys not on the same page, and if he'd kept going would he have been able to catch it?" 3rd and 9.  Now I have no idea how Allen is being coached.  Maybe he was told "take a deeper shot on this one so they know you will, we're OK punting".  But meanwhile, look at that lonely goatherd - I mean, TE.  Yeah, he's not far from the LOS, but he's got enough real estate around him that I bet he could move the sticks. (that's Logan Thomas). 

 

 

I could be wrong, but I think Mayfield sees it, and Rosen sees it. 

On the other hand, maybe they don't have a guy downfield who stops on his route.

And we don't know how Allen was coached there, all I know is he never gave Thomas a glance.

 

Just to leave us with something sweeter, here's a successful pass to Clay.  Leads him beautifully, perfect height, "come to Papa" (the ball is the little smudge at 48 1/2 yds above the hashes, and you can see by Clay's hands where he expects it to go).

 

 

There is no doubt that he has left some plays on the field.  I'm not going to argue that.  I do think that the other two have better weapons at WR and better lines for them to stand behind which is why I think he is on par with them.  They built their teams to help a young QB.  We built ours to be better on defense.  

 

The fact remains that they are all still within a tight frame, for the time being, of looking like raw rookie QBs.

 

EDIT:  I'm not trying to poke at you but that first picture is the type of play we have seen from TT every game(and most of us B word about it).  3rd and 9, go to the safefy valve, get 5-6 yards, still punting.  I honestly prefer any QB to sit in the pocket and wait to see if something opens ups rather than throw to the guy that's open 8 yards short of the first.

Edited October 11, 2018 by The Wiz

[VW82]

18 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think VW82 has a good point.  We just can't assume that Allen is our franchise QB.  Time will tell.  Where I might differ from VW82 (and I don't want to put words in his mouth) is that I don't think that we will be able to pull the plug on Allen after just this season if he doesn't develop as much as we'd like.  It might take more than a single season for him to develop ala Manning and Farve.  Look at Goff, a total bust his rookie year who blossomed his second because of better coaching.  I also think it is fair to point out that Allen doesn't have the strongest supporting cast right now to help his development. I don't think that is making excuses for him, just stating a fact.

 

Like many here, I would have preferred Allen sit the entire year and learn behind a vet QB like Mahomes did, but here we are throwing him into the deep end of the pool and yelling at him to move his arms and kick his feet. I am a big McBeane supporter, but if you want to lay the lion's share of blame for this situation at McBeane's feet, I think that's fair. 

 

We live in an impatient society where everyone wants results immediately.  You cook some meals in a microwave and others in a crock pot.  It might be that Allen is more of a crock potter.  It will be worth the wait if he develops.  I'm willing to give him an honest chance to do so.  One season with this supporting cast is not a fair chance in my opinion.

 

 

 

If Allen doesn't show much improvement by year end here's how I'd handle it: 1. We have cap space and the roster is bereft of talent so clearly we should upgrade it regardless; 2. Acquire another QB (draft, sign, or trade) and make Allen fight for the job in training camp. I wouldn't be averse to picking a QB in the first round if the right guy was available.

 

If Allen can't win a QB competition going into year two then he can sit and be our back up for a year assuming we can't trade him. I don't think you can just hand someone a job two years in a row if they're not earning that right to play. 

 

Obviously the hope is Josh improves by leaps and bounds this year and proves he's our franchise guy going into year two. 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by VW82

[Ol Dirty B]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Yeah Andy we get it.

 

They are all better than Josh and

how does Buffalo win those upsets?

He’s an idiot and I don’t get why people click his trash 

 

 

Defense? Certainly not because of Allen. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

He’s not completely wrong, but what he’s listing as Allen’s shortcomings (reading defenses and getting off bad routes) is completely coachable. 

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

If Allen doesn't show much improvement by year end here's how I'd handle it: 1. We have cap space and the roster is bereft of talent so clearly we should upgrade it regardless; 2. Acquire another QB (draft, sign, or trade) and make Allen fight for the job in training camp. I wouldn't be averse to picking a QB in the first round if the right guy was available.

 

If Allen can't win a QB competition going into year two then he can sit and be our back up for a year assuming we can't trade him. I don't think you can just hand someone a job two years in a row if they're not earning that right to play. 

 

Obviously the hope is Josh improves by leaps and bounds this year and proves he's our franchise guy going into year two. 

 

“I don’t think you can just hand someone a job two years in a row if they’re not earning the right to play.”

 

We’re talking about the Bills, right? 

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

You're the only one talking about him not playing anymore (even if it's just to be facetious). Obviously he needs more time.

 

The question I raised is does it make sense to commit a bunch of other resources next off season to build around Allen if he hasn't improved considerably from where he is today? I think that's a fair question. Many here seem to be taking the default position of "it's not his fault because he's a rookie and the Oline and WRs suck so we can't objectively rate his performance." That's crap. You have to take that into consideration but it's clear he'd be having the same problems with better teammates because of how tremendously raw he is. He's so raw it's fair to question whether he'll ever improve enough to be successful, and it's worth monitoring that improvement over the course of the year so we can make a more informed decision about him in the off season.  

 

When you break down his 270 minutes of playing time have you divided them into segments?  I mean the first 266 he looked like the worst player in the history of football according to that genius guy, but what about that last 4 minutes or so on the gw drive?  Can we count that as progress?  When you think about it he has probably played about 135 minutes because the Bills are on defense at times so the last 4 minutes is roughly 3% of his career and the most recent 3% at that.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Does this guy have any credentials for evaluating QBs? 

 

Also, how does Rosen going 10/25 put him ahead of Allen?

 

Allen has flashed some ability to be the best in the group. Mayfield is obviously the most pro ready at this point.

I don't know.  Does he?    Did he play QB in the NFL?    Was he ever a coach in the NFL?  

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

I can't believe that, in two seasons, Beane hasn't been able to:

 

Draft our future QB

Assemble a decent O line to protect him and effectively run block

Assemble a high quality WR corps

 

What a !@#$ing bum!!!!!!!!  We were only a QB, 3 wide receivers, 2 linebackers, a defensive end, a defensive tackle and an offensive line and two safeties away from being the best team in football.  How long is this supposed to take??

 

And why isn't Josh Allen as good as Patrick Mahomes????  No excuses.  Failure.

The injustice!!!!!   

 

Fire them ALL!!! 

9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Funny part is, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen are ranked 40, 42, 44 and 46 respectively in terms of completions and the bills have no one in their WR group that can run a route let alone catch a ball.

 

Allen has been off the mark in some games and has made bad throws at times but I don't think he's that far off from the others that were drafted.

Meaning Josh I assume.  

 

I agree.  Arguably hindered by the #1 WR dropping more passes than Zay I suck Jones did as a ROOKIE.  

 

Mr Idaho spud needs to really watch film on the Bills.  

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Wtf he is 4 games into his career and is 2-2.

Shhhh     don't say that too loud.  Some "experts" might hear you.  

8 hours ago, VW82 said:

He's played 18 quarters plus preseason of NFL football. It isn't too early to make some observations about where he is in his development. I'm not suggesting he's a finished product or won't make it. But the early signs suggest he has a long ways to go, and according to Andy Benoit maybe the longest out of any QB in recent memory as far as football IQ.

What happens in preseason stays in preseason.   It's really not the same.  

 

And if he had looked at preseason.  Josh did fairly well for the most part barring that horrendous 4th and goal at the 5 where he scrambled backwards and got sacked 15 yards behind the LOS. 

 

 

How much of his story has changed since his last HOT TAKE  

Andy Benoit: How Do the Bills Keep Pulling Off Upsets?

Edited October 11, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[gjv001]

Give it a rest!!  

[thenorthremembers]

This.  Adding to the fact that Benoit asserts Allen has a robust arm on deep passes, when he has yet to complete one.  Guess the guy needed to fill his article quota but he isnt exactly coming off as in depth.

[4merper4mer]

Just now, gjv001 said:

Give it a rest!!  

 

But Josh has had 270 minutes to prepare so it is time to get depressed.  The convincing arguments in this thread have made me re-think any points I had about Andrew Luck who is only in his 7th year and needs more time to hit a 6 yard pass on 4th and 5.  Is it really fair to judge him on 7 and not judge Josh on 270?

Just now, thenorthremembers said:

This.  Adding to the fact that Benoit asserts Allen has a robust arm on deep passes, when he has yet to complete one.  Guess the guy needed to fill his article quota but he isnt exactly coming off as in depth.

To be fair he has hit on some long passes.  Unfortunately he hit Foster in the hands, which is a bad spot to hit.

[26CornerBlitz]

Any Given Sunday: Bills over Titans | Football Outsiders

 

by Rivers McCown

 

Josh Allen Progress Report: What Exactly Do The Bills Do Well?

 

Since we covered the Bills in Week 3, Josh Allen has put up two games with DYARs of -40 and -220, where he threw for a combined 223 yards and three picks. He has also taken a league-high 19 sacks. In some ways, Allen's season is the proverbial car wreck you can't help but gawk at. In a league where Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes are making everything look easy, Allen has Goff's numbers ... from Goff's rookie season with Jeff Fisher.

 

But outside of the triumphant return of Shady McCoy this week, other players simply aren't stepping up for Buffalo. This is a group effort.

 

Of Buffalo's receivers with 15 or more targets, only Zay Jones has positive DYAR. Kelvin Benjamin has been an unmitigated disaster, catching eight of 27 attempts for 103 yards, and has been the intended target on three interceptions. Andre Holmes has never been able to catch.

 

Allen owns the 19 sacks, but Buffalo through Week 4 owned a 34.0 percent pressure rate on the offensive line, 28th in the NFL. (After this game, that's dropped to 30.3 percent, now 24th, according to Sports Info Solutions). The offensive design for Allen to take shots downfield under Brian Daboll's sage tutelage has created (per NFL Next Gen Stats) an expected completion percentage of 61.3 percent, the third-worst in the NFL. We have 33 deep balls for Allen in our data -- he's completed seven of them, for 205 yards, with four interceptions and one DPI. That equates to a DYAR of -152 just on those snaps, which is nearly triple the second-worst deep ball DYAR this season (Nick Foles at -53) and makes him one of just three players with a negative DYAR on deep balls: Allen, Foles, and Tom Brady. (That's right! Tom Brady comparisons in Allen's first year!)

 

Listen, we hated this draft pick for the Bills with the fire of a million suns, especially once you factor in trading up for him, but this offense is doing him no favors at all. The Bills need only look at their recent coaching past for inspiration on how you manage a tall quarterback with a big arm and lousy accuracy: the job Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett are doing with Blake Bortles in Jacksonville.

 

Allen has the size and speed to be a threat on running plays and do credible play-action. He's going to sail some easy throws, because he was always going to do that. Did you watch him in college?