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Bills reportedly unlikely to trade McCoy and plan to keep him through 2019


YoloinOhio

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Just now, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

whoa I wasnt even aware of that  Money aside I always got excited to watch with Watkins in the lineup.  He just doesn't come close to the production I though he would have

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17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm just curious about this philosophy - you are of course by far the only person expressing it, I'm just jumping in here.

 

A 4th round pick is where you draft a player who has something like a 20-25% chance of making it in the NFL.  Not of being a star, just being a capable NFL player - sometimes at the cost of being carried on the roster for a couple years before he emerges.

 

So this philosophy is saying, "let's swap a legit star in his downward years who is one of our roster's best players THIS season, for a 25% chance of getting a capable NFL player NEXT season"

 

Why does this make sense or seem like a good deal to you?

 

To me, to trade McCoy would only make sense if it's part of a bigger this-year plan.  Let's say we can trade for, say, a very good vet WR - but we need to clear cap.  So we trade McCoy for decent picks - say the best Philly 2nd - and trade the best Philly 2nd for a WR with at least an option year on his contract after this season after clearing the cap to receive him.  That kind of thing would hopefully keep or improve the team's competitiveness this year and position us well for next year (we're in a hole where FA WR aren't gonna want to sign here until we're racking up more passing yards, but we can't rack up more passing yards without better WR). 

 

That might make sense for all 3 teams - for Philly, by giving them the RB they need Right Now to contend; for a team that might have good young WR coming up, by giving them a good draft pick; for us, by upgrading a position that is woefully lacking at the cost of downgrading a position of strength.

 

But McCoy for a 4th?  I don't get it.

 

To me, I think it makes sense to cut McCoy in the offseason, so getting a 3rd round pick for him now would be very nice. A 4th round pick is just enough that I think it's worth moving on from him a little early. An extra 3rd or 4th round pick could potentially be a McCoy replacement, could be a bonus chip to move up for a prospect that the team especially likes, etc.

 

3rd and 4th round RBs between the past 3 drafts:

 

Kenyan Drake

CJ Prosise

Tyler Ervin

Kenneth Dixon

Devontae Booker

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

D'Onta Freeman

James Conner

Samaje Perine

Tarik Cohen

Joe Williams

Donnell Pumphrey

Jamaal Williams

Wayne Gallman

Marlon Mack

Royce Freeman

Nyheim Hines

Mark Walton

Ito Smith

Kalen Ballage

Chase Edmunds

 

Obviously it's still early, and in some cases, extremely early, but of the 22 guys listed here, 12 of them already have a fairly sized role on their NFL team. Of those 12, 10 of them are either starters, or play roughly starter's snaps and grade out very well. So we're talking almost a 50% chance that a RB you take there can be a potential McCoy replacement and they'd be paid roughly 9% of what we're paying McCoy.

 

Edited by DCOrange
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41 minutes ago, Yav said:

I know he had more carries last week but the first few weeks seemed like he wasn't used at all. 

Don't get me wrong, I think McCoy is great and I'd rather have him running the ball than not, but I just get the impression they want a more physical runner.

 

The first few weeks our run blocking was caca.  Say instead "they needed a more physical runner who could make yards out of nothing on his own" and you've got it.

 

This past week, they simplified the blocking and it worked better for Shady.  Not hugely better, but better to the tune of 3-5 ypc vs -3 to -1 ypc

 

31 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s also in the drug program. Next blip is a 4 gamer.

 

Ah-ha.

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is the kind of move that makes no sense at all to me. A borderline starting OL and another 6th is not worth it. I don’t know if I’d do Wisnewski and a 3rd. While Shady may not be here after this year he still is an important piece to Allen’s development. The Bills already have 10 picks and a boatload of cap space. A swing interior OL and a 6th does nothing for me. 

Why would Shady not be here next year?!? His running style protects him from big shots most rb take. He'll still be a valuable piece to the O and Allen and worth every penny of his contract.

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

C. Biscuit, this is a terrible trade for the Bills. He is still really good and stands a decent chance of going to the HOF. His contract is fine. Why wouldn't he be back next year?

Name the last 3 Bills fourth rounders who turned out to be better than average players (i.e., not JAGs). Andre Reed is the only player who comes to mind. Jamie Nails is the proverbial mean in the fourth round slot for the Bills.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

What a stupid trade idea. 


I swear, journalists and posters love draft picks way too much. Mid-round picks are so freaking overrated.

I agree McCoy is a stud.  But he is 30+, has a high price tag, and guilty or not, seems to have a lot of baggage with him.  I don’t think teams value him as high as we might as Bills fans.  I also feel that since the one position the Bills seem to do well as finding is rbs, we should get an asset for him while we can.

 

i know the Bills are stuck in the 50s with their way of thinking.  But a 4th could be used for a receiver or linemen.  That said, I hope they aim high but I think their leverage is limited.  And it’s not a knock on McCoy who is one of the best rbs in his generation. 

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26 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

To me, I think it makes sense to cut McCoy in the offseason, so getting a 3rd round pick for him now would be very nice. A 4th round pick is just enough that I think it's worth moving on from him a little early. An extra 3rd or 4th round pick could potentially be a McCoy replacement, could be a bonus chip to move up for a prospect that the team especially likes, etc.

 

3rd and 4th round RBs between the past 3 drafts:

 

Kenyan Drake

CJ Prosise

Tyler Ervin

Kenneth Dixon

Devontae Booker

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

D'Onta Freeman

James Conner

Samaje Perine

Tarik Cohen

Joe Williams

Donnell Pumphrey

Jamaal Williams

Wayne Gallman

Marlon Mack

Royce Freeman

Nyheim Hines

Mark Walton

Ito Smith

Kalen Ballage

Chase Edmunds

 

Obviously it's still early, and in some cases, extremely early, but of the 22 guys listed here, 12 of them already have a fairly sized role on their NFL team. Of those 12, 10 of them are either starters, or play roughly starter's snaps and grade out very well. So we're talking almost a 50% chance that a RB you take there can be a potential McCoy replacement and they'd be paid roughly 9% of what we're paying McCoy.

 

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

image.thumb.png.83c8d16cba4e5532f0b3aee07d11db53.png

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7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree McCoy is a stud.  But he is 30+, has a high price tag, and guilty or not, seems to have a lot of baggage with him.  I don’t think teams value him as high as we might as Bills fans.  I also feel that since the one position the Bills seem to do well as finding is rbs, we should get an asset for him while we can.

 

i know the Bills are stuck in the 50s with their way of thinking.  But a 4th could be used for a receiver or linemen.  That said, I hope they aim high but I think their leverage is limited.  And it’s not a knock on McCoy who is one of the best rbs in his generation. 

 

The pick could also be part of a package to jump back up into the first/second or even packaged to move up in the first. Just because he is traded for a 2,3,4,5 does not mean that pick will simply stay there - see Allen & Edmunds this past draft.

 

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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

image.thumb.png.83c8d16cba4e5532f0b3aee07d11db53.png

Not Royce Freeman or James Connor?

 

And you might want to proofread your list of names, or is that just Kareem Hunt’s nickname??

Edited by mannc
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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I commend you highly for responding with data and argument, but I think you're a little off.

Drake, Booker, Kamara, Kunt, and Williams look to be good players.    But other than that, I'm a bit unclear on just what 10- 12 guys on the list above we're referring to as "potential McCoy replacements". 

 

To help us out, here's pro-football-ref's list of RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, sorted by games played.  If you click on it, it will embiggen and become readable.

 

image.thumb.png.83c8d16cba4e5532f0b3aee07d11db53.png

 

Drake

Dixon

Kamara

Hunt

Conner

Cohen

Jamaal

Mack

Freeman

Hines

 

As I said, all 10 have either been starters already or are more like Cohen where they’re playing a lot of snaps and playing well but aren’t technically the starter.

 

Are all of these guys as good as Prime McCoy? No. Are they as good as Current McCoy and Next Year McCoy? Not all of them, but for the money, I’d rather have a committee including guys like this than to spend $9 million on McCoy, who’s arguably a below average starter right now and in the very least, could realistically be below average next season. 

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6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Drake

Dixon

Kamara

Hunt

Conner

Cohen

Jamaal

Mack

Freeman

Hines

 

As I said, all 10 have either been starters already or are more like Cohen where they’re playing a lot of snaps and playing well but aren’t technically the starter.

 

Are all of these guys as good as Prime McCoy? No. Are they as good as Current McCoy and Next Year McCoy? Not all of them, but for the money, I’d rather have a committee including guys like this than to spend $9 million on McCoy, who’s arguably a below average starter right now and in the very least, could realistically be below average next season. 

McCoy is till a top back  There arent that many 3 down rbs to begin with.  His salary is not 9 mill its 4mill 2018 and 6mill in 2019

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2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

C. Biscuit, this is a terrible trade for the Bills. He is still really good and stands a decent chance of going to the HOF. His contract is fine. Why wouldn't he be back next year?

Name the last 3 Bills fourth rounders who turned out to be better than average players (i.e., not JAGs). Andre Reed is the only player who comes to mind. Jamie Nails is the proverbial mean in the fourth round slot for the Bills.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

What a stupid trade idea. 


I swear, journalists and posters love draft picks way too much. Mid-round picks are so freaking overrated.

 

We've had good luck with DB's in the 4th. Cockrell, Johnson is looking good (too early to tell though), McGee, Searcy. 

 

Lets not forget Ko "I am worth Millions" Simpson

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9 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

McCoy is till a top back  There arent that many 3 down rbs to begin with.  His salary is not 9 mill its 4mill 2018 and 6mill in 2019

 

It’s a cap hit of just over $9 mil both this year and next according to Spotrac. 

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19 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

When did this happen?  Was it after he cut his hair?

Lol - he cut his hair? Nooooo 

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

But if the debate is about money, factor in that for the games he's suspended, the team doesn't have to pay him and the forfeited salary doesn't count against the cap.

I’m not really debating anything. The chiefs don’t care clearly. Maybe he never gets popped again. 

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2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

We've had good luck with DB's in the 4th. Cockrell, Johnson is looking good (too early to tell though), McGee, Searcy. 

 

Lets not forget Ko "I am worth Millions" Simpson

They're all OK players, but at the end of the day they're JAGs - guys with one or two decent seasons under their belt at most. Even McGee only had a couple of above average seasons. Searcy is the proverbial JAG - check out his AV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SearDa00.htm

1 minute ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Knowing philly has two second rounders, i would hold firm trying to get one of them. We actually have the leverage here for once. If anyone wants to see this happen, and im not sure i do, root hard for the giants tonight

If the Giants win, I think it's more likely that Philly DOESN'T pull the trigger than if they win. 2-4 is a hard hole to crawl out of.

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