Timing on Josh's dropbacks

[Da webster guy]

Was re watching the game, trying to figure out what happened in the first half especially on all those pass plays.  As I watched, I got more into watching Rodgers and his technique than what Josh was doing.   (avoid pain, seek pleasure....my therapist would be proud)

 

Everyone thinks Rodgers primary strength is throwing on the run,  but it's the 3 step drop from the shotgun.  Trying to figure out why Josh isn't doing more of this.  Tall qb's with over the top releases like Josh can make a living off the 3 step drop, and it can really neutralize opposing pass rushers.   

 

1-3 yard drop is essentially wide receiver screens, bubbles, end zone fades, and other extremely quick throws, something he needs to work on as a rookie, but not really a problem area yet.  That's timing, trusting your receivers, using those bunched rub/pick plays--all things we don't have right now.

 

But the 4-6 yard drop back range is where generally the 3-step game (1 step from shotgun) is played, and at most the kid should be maxing out in the 7-8 yard range which corresponds to a 5-step drop (3 steps from shotgun).  Our Oline is probably not as bad as most think, but it's certainly not above average and we need to accept that and adjust qb play accordingly.  The ball is out of your hands every time, on time.  No more negative yardage stuff, it's either caught or it's not, but we can't take this many sacks.

 

Guys like Brees, Rodgers and Rivers seem to live by the 2.5 second rule and it has to be the kid's number one priority.  We simply don't have an adequate Center/RG to do much more than slow DT's down a little.   If I'm Daboll I have a kid with an air horn and a stopwatch every single drop back and he's blowing that baby at 2.5 seconds, every snap all practice.  If he can't learn to do this he's not going to survive the season unless we see Beane get busy on the trade block for interior linemen or something radical happens.

 

Obviously there are times when the full 7 step drop and stuff like designed rollouts etc. will play into things-- like maybe on play action when the run is working, or if we seem to be winning on the Oline and giving him a pocket to climb and release, but meanwhile the focus needs to be on footwork and timing all week.  I hope they get this nailed down soon, it's really a fundamental he needs to master before the season gets away from us.

[RobbRiddick]

They said something interesting on One Bills Live (I swear), they were talking about how in the Vikings game the DC backed off a little with all the blitzes because of the early success the Bills had moving the ball. If the Titans blitz a lot early it'll be interesting to see if Allen can hit some of his hot reads, and if they ease up on them a little after. 

 

Stands to reason teams will keep blitzing until we prove we can beat them. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

While you make a good point, I think the actual plays will depend on what Allen's strengths and the long term Oline / WR characteristics are going to be. From the preseason at least, it appeared that Peterman is much better at those timing throws than Josh. But those 3 step drops did not really work when defenders come unblocked and you dont have the receiving personnel for that.

 

It is quite likely that Allen's strengths are to fall back and use the rocket arm when he gets the time and scramble and use his feet when he doesnt have the time. Why make the thoroughbred into a mule?

[row_33]

Rodgers has proven he can take on everything the D can throw at him, or at the very least adjust quickly before or after the snap

 

this helps him immensely, all to his credit

 

[ctk232]

18 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

They said something interesting on One Bills Live (I swear), they were talking about how in the Vikings game the DC backed off a little with all the blitzes because of the early success the Bills had moving the ball. If the Titans blitz a lot early it'll be interesting to see if Allen can hit some of his hot reads, and if they ease up on them a little after. 

 

Stands to reason teams will keep blitzing until we prove we can beat them. 

Same with the Kubiak article. It's pretty simple, you don't want sacks? Counter the blitz. How do you counter the blitz? Reads, OLine executing, and quick releases to hot routes. 

 

The case and point of this was in the Vikings game on the quick slant to KB just outside the endzone. It should've been caught for a TD with any other receiver right now, but that play in and of itself is where Allen demonstrated that he read the blitz package off the right side, knew KB was running a quick slant to the hole in coverage left by the blitz and got that ball out in 2-3 seconds. 

 

It's not rocket science, but it's something we all knew Allen needed to develop. The difference is instead of giving him a Mahomes first year, we're having him learn this on the fly and it's showing. It would help him to have an OLine, receivers who want to catch, and an OC who understands protection coverage and hot route adjustments and responds to his QB. And maybe an offensively minded head coach, but more so the former.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Great thread/topic, thanks for posting--hopefully the staff actually getting paid to sort through issues like this is burning the midnight oil to make it happen. 

[White Linen]

This theory would be much more on Daboll's play calling than Josh's ability/willingness to do it.  The play call is the reason Brees and Rodgers make this throw.  

[jletha]

47 minutes ago, White Linen said:

This theory would be much more on Daboll's play calling than Josh's ability/willingness to do it.  The play call is the reason Brees and Rodgers make this throw.  

 

I disagree with this a bit. Its using the play call but it involves a lot more of reading the defense. When you get under center you have to identify the likely weaknesses in the defense and try to determine possible blitzes BEFORE the snap. That way, you have an idea on how to execute the play call, or change it, by exploiting what the defense is giving you.

 

The play call can only get you so far. The QB has to diagnose the defense before the snap and react based on their educated guess after the snap. Thats what makes Rodgers and Brees better than most. They dont just blindly execute play calls.

[Pirate Angel]

Remember all the horrid offensive lines we've had and made fun of on TBD for years...yeah this one's even worse

[billsredneck1]

32 minutes ago, jletha said:

 

I disagree with this a bit. Its using the play call but it involves a lot more of reading the defense. When you get under center you have to identify the likely weaknesses in the defense and try to determine possible blitzes BEFORE the snap. That way, you have an idea on how to execute the play call, or change it, by exploiting what the defense is giving you.

 

The play call can only get you so far. The QB has to diagnose the defense before the snap and react based on their educated guess after the snap. Thats what makes Rodgers and Brees better than most. They dont just blindly execute play calls.

this is why i would keep josh in the gun with a 2 back set.  that way he can see those outside defenders creeping up, if he sees a blitz coming from one side , he can hand off or throw a quickie to the back on the opposite side or he can take his shots downfield. i don;t care who the dc is and what they can throw at us, having a 2 back set opens up a ton of options so josh can.. react...if nothing else.

 

also being in the gun ( i would have been hammering this in his head 24/7) ...by the time the 3rd step hits the ground that ball's gotta come out. that 2 back set allows him to do that if he's not seeing his first read downfield. putting him under center when you are facing a blitz crazy team is idiotic.  besides, we're not gonna get him throwing in 2.5 or less, anytime soon, so....leave him in the gun with 2 easy options next to him.

[Jerome007]

51 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

this is why i would keep josh in the gun with a 2 back set.  that way he can see those outside defenders creeping up, if he sees a blitz coming from one side , he can hand off or throw a quickie to the back on the opposite side or he can take his shots downfield. i don;t care who the dc is and what they can throw at us, having a 2 back set opens up a ton of options so josh can.. react...if nothing else.

 

also being in the gun ( i would have been hammering this in his head 24/7) ...by the time the 3rd step hits the ground that ball's gotta come out. that 2 back set allows him to do that if he's not seeing his first read downfield. putting him under center when you are facing a blitz crazy team is idiotic.  besides, we're not gonna get him throwing in 2.5 or less, anytime soon, so....leave him in the gun with 2 easy options next to him.

I like it. And with Ivory and Shady, the Bills sure have a very strong 2 back duo. They ran that twice I think last game. Not nearly enough but before that it was zero. You mention the pass aspect in your post, but runs are good too. Ivory ran the ball in the middle and some of the defenders had taken the McCoy bait - and even Allen could run it so keep'em guessing. RBs and TE are stronger than WRs on the team anyway so mix it up! 

 

Edit: and people bag on DiMarco but he can be effective in the run game as a blocker and of course as a check down option.

 

 

Of course on paper  it all makes sense, but they have to drill it to execute it come Sunday. 

 

I love the horn idea!

 

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Jerome007

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Guys like Brees, Rodgers and Rivers seem to live by the 2.5 second rule and it has to be the kid's number one priority.  We simply don't have an adequate Center/RG to do much more than slow DT's down a little.   If I'm Daboll I have a kid with an air horn and a stopwatch every single drop back and he's blowing that baby at 2.5 seconds, every snap all practice.  If he can't learn to do this he's not going to survive the season unless we see Beane get busy on the trade block for interior linemen or something radical happens.

 

Interesting point about shotgun/3 step drops and the sort of plays they foster.

 

All of the great QB you mention are able to shoot it out quickly, but Brees and especially Rodgers have made a living over the years evading pressure and extending plays.  They are far from living by a 2.5 second rule or any arbitrary rule.

 

I'm going to get a bit scatalogical here, but the "air horn/stopwatch" thing reminds me of the joke about the scientist who set out to toilet-train a monkey.  Every time the monkey made a mess, he spanked it and threw it out the window.  After a week, the monkey made a mess, spanked itself, and jumped out the window.   It's funny, of course, because we can all see that the scientist's training method did not actually address teaching the monkey what the monkey needed to do, but on after-the-fact correction.

 

What Allen needs is to develop faster processing speed - the ability to understand immediately how the D formation he sees will impact the called play and what that means to his protections and his reads.  Man, go left.  Zone, look right.   It's pattern recognition.   People in other fields don't develop and speed up pattern recognition by having someone blast them with an airhorn at an arbitrary interval when they take too long, they do it by good practice and repetition and if possible, by building speed - like playing Tetris Marathon.

 

I'd like to know if the Bills are using the VR technology as has been written about for the Bears, signed up for by the Patriots, and etc:

https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/07/13/chicago-bears-using-virtual-reality-help-new-quarterbacks
http://fortune.com/2017/02/04/nfl-quarterbacks-vr-training/

https://www.sporttechie.com/former-broncos-gm-invented-fully-immersive-qb-training-simulator/

A system like this could be a big help in allowing extra repetitions without the physical wear and tear on teammates and (in theory) being able to adjust the speed.

 

The old way as I understand it was being given a play then shown a photo of a D lineup and coached what the response is, then asked to speed this up faster and faster as recognition improves.

 

As I understand it they tried an airhorn or something with Losman.  How'd that work out?

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, Jerome007 said:

I like it. And with Ivory and Shady, the Bills sure have a very strong 2 back duo. They ran that twice I think last game. Not nearly enough but before that it was zero. You mention the pass aspect in your post, but runs are good too. Ivory ran the ball in the middle and some of the defenders had taken the McCoy bait - and even Allen could run it so keep'em guessing. RBs and TE are stronger than WRs on the team anyway so mix it up! 

 

Edit: and people bag on DiMarco but he can be effective in the run game as a blocker and of course as a check down option.

 

 

Of course on paper  it all makes sense, but they have to drill it to execute it come Sunday. 

 

I love the horn idea!

 

 

 

 

not only that but he could be a blitz pickup/run decoy and buy the time for josh to go deep. we should be on the payroll  yo.

[LABILLBACKER]

Brady gets rid of the ball in 1.8 seconds.  His average from last year. Not going to ever expect JA to master that but Daboll better start dialing up quicker reads.

[jletha]

16 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

this is why i would keep josh in the gun with a 2 back set.  that way he can see those outside defenders creeping up, if he sees a blitz coming from one side , he can hand off or throw a quickie to the back on the opposite side or he can take his shots downfield. i don;t care who the dc is and what they can throw at us, having a 2 back set opens up a ton of options so josh can.. react...if nothing else.

 

also being in the gun ( i would have been hammering this in his head 24/7) ...by the time the 3rd step hits the ground that ball's gotta come out. that 2 back set allows him to do that if he's not seeing his first read downfield. putting him under center when you are facing a blitz crazy team is idiotic.  besides, we're not gonna get him throwing in 2.5 or less, anytime soon, so....leave him in the gun with 2 easy options next to him.

 

Being in shotgun certainly helps but either way, youve gotta be able to diagnose a defense. 2 back sets are great but they also limit your WR options and ability to play downfield (especially if you have a TE to protect which it seems like we need unfortunately). Itd be nice to use the RB  leak out passes to get Josh a rythem and he has shown he can hit that pass effectively enough. But hes gotta be able to see a blitzer, and get the ball to the hot read ASAP.

[row_33]

I don’t have to see our QB play or outshine Rodgers or Brady or Brees.....  stop these comparisons....

 

Ben R has mastered avoiding and gaining a little extra time in pressure, one of the more undersung great HOF careers we will see for an elite multiple SB winning QB

 

 

[Da webster guy]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting point about shotgun/3 step drops and the sort of plays they foster.

 

All of the great QB you mention are able to shoot it out quickly, but Brees and especially Rodgers have made a living over the years evading pressure and extending plays.  They are far from living by a 2.5 second rule or any arbitrary rule.

 

I'm going to get a bit scatalogical here, but the "air horn/stopwatch" thing reminds me of the joke about the scientist who set out to toilet-train a monkey.  Every time the monkey made a mess, he spanked it and threw it out the window.  After a week, the monkey made a mess, spanked itself, and jumped out the window.   It's funny, of course, because we can all see that the scientist's training method did not actually address teaching the monkey what the monkey needed to do, but on after-the-fact correction.

 

What Allen needs is to develop faster processing speed - the ability to understand immediately how the D formation he sees will impact the called play and what that means to his protections and his reads.  Man, go left.  Zone, look right.   It's pattern recognition.   People in other fields don't develop and speed up pattern recognition by having someone blast them with an airhorn at an arbitrary interval when they take too long, they do it by good practice and repetition and if possible, by building speed - like playing Tetris Marathon.

 

I'd like to know if the Bills are using the VR technology as has been written about for the Bears, signed up for by the Patriots, and etc:

https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/07/13/chicago-bears-using-virtual-reality-help-new-quarterbacks
http://fortune.com/2017/02/04/nfl-quarterbacks-vr-training/

https://www.sporttechie.com/former-broncos-gm-invented-fully-immersive-qb-training-simulator/

A system like this could be a big help in allowing extra repetitions without the physical wear and tear on teammates and (in theory) being able to adjust the speed.

 

The old way as I understand it was being given a play then shown a photo of a D lineup and coached what the response is, then asked to speed this up faster and faster as recognition improves.

 

As I understand it they tried an airhorn or something with Losman.  How'd that work out?

 

That's my whole point of the original post, the plays you and I remember the most from those guys are the extended plays, but look into the stats and you'll see they unload much faster than almost anyone in the league on average. 

 

The skill to avoid pressure and extend a play is something Josh already has natural ability to do.  What he needs is the three step and fire out of the shotgun. 

2.5 seconds or less.   He did it with Zay a few times near the end, and you could see the rhythm light coming on. 

 

Flacco, Rivers and Rogers all smoked us with that this year.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

On 10/3/2018 at 2:27 PM, RobbRiddick said:

They said something interesting on One Bills Live (I swear), they were talking about how in the Vikings game the DC backed off a little with all the blitzes because of the early success the Bills had moving the ball. If the Titans blitz a lot early it'll be interesting to see if Allen can hit some of his hot reads, and if they ease up on them a little after. 

 

Stands to reason teams will keep blitzing until we prove we can beat them. 

   You have to have hot reads to hit them.!?

    It was infuriating watching the routes in the GB game vs the dump offs that were readily available against the Vikings.

    I understand it is early in the season and Daboll is still trying things out but having guys breaking routes past 10 yards when you only need 4 or 5 is like an ice pick to the skull.

     Did Daboll believe JA had come further because of the previous game? After the first quarter much less the half he should have figured how lost JA was.