PlayoffsPlease Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 All NFL teams have the same salary cap. All operate with the same CBA. All operate with the same rookie contract rules. There is one rub for any given season, dead cap space. There is zero return on investment for dead cap. The Bills dead cap space problem for 2018 has been discussed in many threads and that is not the main topic of discussion for this thread. It is a dispositive statement to say that the teams that win have more players out performing their contract value then the teams that don't win. Over the last decade Tom Brady has played for a Salary that is much lower than the handful of QBs who would be considered his true peers. I believe this discounted salary compared to his production has been a huge advantage for the Patriots over time. In real world terms the discount Brady takes subsidizes Gronk's entire salary and then some. If all players on all teams produced exactly according to their salaries, the Bills would be expected to be the worst team in the league do to the dead cap space issue. This will change in the future. The question here is which if any Bills players are actually out producing their contract costs? I don't think a single veteran (veteran means non-rookie contract player in this context) is coming close to out producing their current contract. There are several players massively under producing their 2018 cap cost, McCoy, Clay, Lotulelei and Trent Murphy. This does not mean they are bad players. It simply means the cost far exceeds the production. I think there are three players on a rookie contract who are arguably out performing their contract costs. Edmunds, Milano and Tre White. Based on snap count and the high costs of QBs, Allen is also out producing his cost. This does not mean he is a good QB. It simply means his production exceeds his cost. I don't think having four rookies on the roster outplaying their contract costs is unusual in the NFL. I would venture to guess it is the case for most teams. I am guessing virtually all teams have at least one veteran on the roster who is a bargain. If the Bills only add players who produce at their contract level with next years 90 million of cap space, then the team will become an average team. At some point to be a winning team, you need to have multiple players meaningfully out performing their contract value (legion of boom/Russell Wilson rookie contract teams, Ravens Flacco rookie contract team, 2017 Eagles all provide great examples) to win. Beane's inability so far to add veterans who out. perform their cap hit is my biggest concern with him. If one assumes that the Beane can get "fair" deals for vets next year and continue to be an average drafter, the Bills only real path forward to being a contender is to have Josh Allen become a top 10 QB, while he is on his rookie contract. I will repeat the question in the title because I may very well be wrong, but which Bills players currently out produce their cap hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Jordan Poyer is probably the biggest veteran bargain on our team. Vlad Ducasse struggled badly last year, but seems to have stepped up with his move to the left side. One of the problems with evaluating Brandon Beane's roster additions right now -- is that every position is getting dragged down by our inexperience and poor play at other key positions. It's like a circle. Everyone is making everyone look bad. The offensive line is a great example. It's easy to look at the sack statistics and say the blockers are all terrible, and Beane is awful at his job. But you need to consider that our rookie QB is still a half-second behind on diagnosing coverage (compared to most vets), he is frequently scrambling from the pocket instead of stepping up into his protection, and he is failing to spot the unblocked blitzers. Everything connects. My advice is for everyone to relax. Sit back. Take a deep breath. Quit screaming about firing people. Just accept the Bills are going to struggle this year. Their offense is going to be near the bottom of the NFL. They just don't have the talent (yet) and this is what happens 95% percent of the time when you start a rookie QB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Micah Hyde for sure, Poyer and probably Chris Ivory if he were given more touches..that is it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Vonte Davis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 However much Hauschka and Bojo make...they are both exceeding their contracts. Poyer is value. Milano. Dawkins compared to typical LT money is value. White on a rookie deal is cheap for how good he is as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 (edited) 59 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said: However much Hauschka and Bojo make...they are both exceeding their contracts. Poyer is value. Milano. Dawkins compared to typical LT money is value. White on a rookie deal is cheap for how good he is as well. Oh I forgot about Haushka, he is for sure, one of the best kickers in the NFL, solid. Milano and Dawkins are on rookie contracts so I dont consider them outperforming their contract value but Milano is for sure... Dawkins, as a rnd 2 guy not so sure. Want to talk guys on rookie contracts Taron Johnson so far is the biggest steal...a sack a forced fumble, pass deflection 10 tackles, value for a 4th. Our rookie punter, he did a huge muff against Baltimore so imo he isnt outperforming yet but I think he will eventually prove to be a steal. Edited October 2, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigPappy Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 56 minutes ago, mjt328 said: Jordan Poyer is probably the biggest veteran bargain on our team. Vlad Ducasse struggled badly last year, but seems to have stepped up with his move to the left side. One of the problems with evaluating Brandon Beane's roster additions right now -- is that every position is getting dragged down by our inexperience and poor play at other key positions. It's like a circle. Everyone is making everyone look bad. The offensive line is a great example. It's easy to look at the sack statistics and say the blockers are all terrible, and Beane is awful at his job. But you need to consider that our rookie QB is still a half-second behind on diagnosing coverage (compared to most vets), he is frequently scrambling from the pocket instead of stepping up into his protection, and he is failing to spot the unblocked blitzers. Everything connects. My advice is for everyone to relax. Sit back. Take a deep breath. Quit screaming about firing people. Just accept the Bills are going to struggle this year. Their offense is going to be near the bottom of the NFL. They just don't have the talent (yet) and this is what happens 95% percent of the time when you start a rookie QB. This, ☝️ 100% this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maynard Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 49 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: Oh I forgot about Haushka, he is for sure, one of the best kickers in the NFL, solid. Milano and Dawkins are on rookie contracts so I dont consider them outperforming their contract value but Milano is for sure... Dawkins, as a rnd 2 guy not so sure. Want to talk guys on rookie contracts Taron Johnson so far is the biggest steal...a sack a forced fumble, pass deflection 10 tackles, incredible value for a UDFA. Our rookie punter, he did a huge muff against Baltimore so imo he isnt outperforming yet but I think he will eventually prove to be a steal. Johnson was our 4th round pick, but I agree guy was all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 (edited) 1 minute ago, Maynard said: Johnson was our 4th round pick, but I agree guy was all over the place. My mistake, thanks for clarifying. I will edit it so i dont have to keep doing mea culpas Edited October 2, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 T white, is a 1st round rookie contract, but think he's still exceeding IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 tre white, poyer, hyde…..that's it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Pick one of the threads about everyone sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigotz Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Hyde, Poyer, White, Milano, Dawkins, Edmunds, Hauschka, Murphy.... That's a pretty strong list considering we completely gutted our roster and will have the 2nd most cap space in the league next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, mead107 said: Pick one of the threads about everyone sucks. Your reading comprehension is poor. This is a completely different discussion. But thanks for playing the party of cranky troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The great thing about not having talent is everyone is cheap. ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Your reading comprehension is poor. This is a completely different discussion. But thanks for playing the party of cranky troll. Who is playing up to their value. Nobody Seems like every thread is about piss poor play. So, most people must feel the players are over paid. No troll but , thanks for letting me play. I appreciate it. ? Edited October 2, 2018 by mead107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, Rigotz said: Hyde, Poyer, White, Milano, Dawkins, Edmunds, Hauschka, Murphy.... That's a pretty strong list considering we completely gutted our roster and will have the 2nd most cap space in the league next year. Lets review Hyde first. He is the 12 highest paid safety in the NFL. He ranks 90th in tackles among all defensive backs with no interceptions or forced fumbles. He is a solid player. He is not producing at the level of the 12th highest paid safety however. Poyer has the 27th highest cap hit among safeties. He ranks 18th in tackles among all DBs with an int and a forced fumble. He is definitely outproducing his contract. Haushka is the 12th highest cap hit for 2018 among kickers. He currently ranks 21st in FG percentage. Very good kicked. But he is not outperforming his contract. Poyer may be the only player not on a rookie contract who is actually producing more than would be expected based on their cap hit. As best I can tell, no other veteran qualifies for that distinction. 16 minutes ago, mead107 said: Who is playing up to their value. Nobody Seems like every thread is about piss poor play. So, most people must feel the players are over paid. No troll but , thanks for letting me play. I appreciate it. ? Poyer definitely is. White, Edmunds and Milano also are. You really are a Mr. Cranky pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Milano, Poyer, Johnson, the punter, and Phillips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 the guy who cleans the bathrooms at New Era. Everyone else is overpaid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Our Long Snapper! He's seeing 3X the action others do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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