CEN-CAL17 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 0-0 Tie game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 ...24-10 Titans.....not much faith in Daboll play calling nor Castillo''s OL......stacked box daring Josh to throw to our dropsters.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Buffalo 23, Tennessee 20 (OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodHands15 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 20-14 Buffalo. Late pick off a Tremaine Edmunds tip FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downunderbill Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I think this year is going to be a year that you won't know which Bills team will show up game to game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) 13-3 Tight'uns at the half... 7 of those from a JA pick six... Edited October 7, 2018 by #34fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloButt Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Bills 20-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bills Blog Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 In the week leading up to a game, there is an incalculably large amount of wasted time and energy spent on analysis of matchups and schemes. In reality, all of this conjecture typically flies out the window within minutes of the start of the game. I would say that the majority of games are effectively decided in the first few possessions, and how those first few possessions go is typically dependent not only on matchups and schemes but also on factors like environment, passion, and luck. The team who starts fast, whether it be on offense or defense, typically wins – and this often takes root prior to "key player X" even touching the ball. Therefore, I propose that there are actually five key components that determine who wins NFL games, and I would rank them in this order: 1) Schemes 2) Luck 3) Passion 4) Talent 5) Environment ("home-field advantage") Analysis typically only focuses on talent and schemes – and usually on talent! In my view, talent is one of the least-important of the five factors, yet we spend most of our time comparing rosters and matchups. I should note that this theory only applies to the NFL. In college, where there is a huge discrepancy in talent between one team and the next, it becomes a bigger issue. In the NFL, however, the talent gap is so minimal between teams that other factors (schemes, luck, passion) become more important. Let's break down the five factors. Schemes: The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots not because Tom Brady is physically or mentally superior to most other quarterbacks (news flash: he's not), but because they have developed an offensive scheme that teams cannot stop. It's the coaches, not the players, who make it successful. We have seen it so many times over the years – player X goes down to a season-ending injury and the Patriots machine just keeps going with Joe Schmo from the grocery store catching balls. It's never been about talent in New England. It's about schemes, luck (you can argue whether or not that is NFL-mandated luck, but that's a discussion for another time), and culture (passion). Luck: Statistics have shown that turnovers—specifically fumbles—are random. The ball needs to bounce your way. You need to get the key penalty calls in the critical moments. Momentum is closely related to luck – when you get a takeaway, that increases your momentum because it stokes your passion and, when you're at home, energizes the crowd. Watch, and you will see that the offense scoring a touchdown does not cause a momentum spike like a key turnover does. I believe that luck is the key driver of momentum. If you bring a great team to the field but the other team gets all the breaks, you're probably going to lose despite your passion and talent. Passion: Culture. How often do we hear that word? Bills head coach Sean McDermott made headlines this week when he said, "Culture trumps strategy." Is he right? No, I don't think so, but I think it trumps talent and environment. If you come to a home game with all the talent in the world but you play flat, guess what? You're going to lose unless you get lucky and have a vastly superior gameplan. On the other hand, if you scheme up the other team as well as they scheme you and the ball breaks both ways during the game, the team who can dig deep and find that next gear because of its culture is probably going to win. Talent: As I wrote above, the talent gap in the NFL is so minimal. This is not basketball, where talent is clearly the greatest determinant of winning. In the NFL, we frequently see less-talented teams win because the ball bounced their way and/or their coaches out-schemed the opponent. Where we see talent make a big difference is in evenly matched games where one team's quarterback is simply better than the other. This can definitely be a factor in determining the outcome of games, but I still feel that it is the fourth-most important. I should note that there is one thing that can push talent higher up this list: rookie quarterbacks. Josh Allen is a perfect example. He is so bad right now that he can single-handedly be the reason the Bills lose games. That should change soon, but it might cause a temporary uptick for talent in the hierarchy of the factors of winning. Environment: This one has been bothering me for a while. We often hear the media and fans talk about it being hard to win in certain venues, but the reality is that "home-field advantage" only comes into play depending on what occurs with the other four factors. For example, if the other team comes out with a great opening-drive script, gets a lucky penalty call, and brings passion to the field while the home team starts on its heels, they'll score and the home crowd will be out of it faster than you can snap your fingers. Of all the five factors, it's the easiest to eliminate. It rarely comes into play. I'd say the most it can do is serve to motivate the home team in key situations; I am not convinced that it has a negative effect on the opposing team – in fact, it might even spark them to greater success because of the "us against the world" phenomenon. I concede that it can be hard to analyze things like luck and passion prior to the game, but instead of hearing things like, "If they can get LeSean McCoy the ball 25 times, I think they'll be victorious," we should be hearing things like this: "If they come out with a greater sense of urgency, if Brian Daboll's script is better than Tennessee's, and if the ball bounces their way early, I like their chances to get an early lead and then ride the running game and the energy of the home crowd to a victory." So that's my football theory for the week. Now on to the game pick: Bills over Titans. Sean McDermott has proven in his short time in Buffalo that he can turn things around from one week to the next. Lost in the 22-0 scoreline last week was that the Bills' defense actually played extremely well and there were many missed opportunities for points. I think we will see the Bills come out with a good gameplan (SCHEMES) on both sides of the ball this week. I think we'll start fast on defense (PASSION), which will allow Brian Daboll to work with his full playbook and put Josh Allen in good positions for early success. I think the Bills will be the more desperate team (PASSION), because Tennessee is coming off two big wins and the Bills are fighting to keep their season alive. If the Bills can get the early breaks (LUCK), the home crowd—of which I will be a part—will stay loud and proud throughout, bringing the most out of the team (ENVIRONMENT). There is no question that Tennessee is the more talented team, but I think we'll see the Bills win this week because of the other four factors. Of course, if the Bills don't get that fast start that I expect, this could go in a completely opposite direction. Final score prediction: Bills 24, Titans 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 On October 2, 2018 at 8:38 AM, Chuck Wagon said: I think the Titans are really good, it's fitting Vrabel is their coach, they remind me of the early Pats teams Vrabel played on before BB/age flushed out guys like Ty Law and Richard Seymour. Add to it they seem to have our number and I don't see this one ending well. Titans 27 - Bills 6 This seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Whatever it is, I need to see the Bills put up 20+ at home. Titans 37 Buffalo 23 Allen finally gets 300.... sacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsidethebox Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I predict gloom, despair and agony on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Ok my first dive in this end of pool this year. Bills win 27-21 in a close one. Ray Ray has a PR ST touchdown. Bills win Turnover battle 2-1 and a Edmunds pick /return sets up a Shady TD. Allen finally hits Foster on a 64 yd bomb for a TD. Go Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SydneyBillsFan Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) 26-19 Bills Edited October 7, 2018 by SydneyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I feel pretty good about this one. Bills 16/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Bills 21-17.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albwan Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 31-6, not the bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Titans 26 Bills 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 On 10/2/2018 at 8:53 AM, joesixpack said: It gets a bit trite and tired. So do the decades of suck, just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Titans 26, Bills 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said: So do the decades of suck, just sayin. Yeah, and these guys had no part of it. So, buck up champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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