SI - Josh Allen, Thrown to the Wolves

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Analysts were divided in their opinions as to whether his problems could be coached out of him. Quite a few were of the view that some issues I.e. accuracy were not correctable. Others felt that with proper coaching and grooming they could improve. As far as I am aware all of the credible analysts were universally and unequivocally of the opinion that Josh was a very raw prospect, maybe a diamond in the rough to be sure, but  very much in need of work on his basic fundamentals re throwing mechanics, footwork etc...in addition to the many things that all rookie QBs need to absorb before transitioning to the pro game. All of this was moreover plainly evident from his WYO tape.

So I would ask you again, what rookie QB as unrefined as Josh Allen starting for a team as bad as the Bills has succeeded. Don't say Peyton. Don't say Aikman. Maybe there is one, but off the top I don't see it. 

Now, you say that every athlete is unique. But some stand out more than others that way. IMO Allen is pretty much in a class by himself. My personal opinion is that he looks to be a bona fide prodigy as far as his basic physical and mental skillset is concerned. He is a much better prospect than other strong armed and physically gifted QBs like Locker or Boller. That is why I continue to see him as a good prospect with a chance to succeed. But if he does get there all the credit will be his, not the Bills, who have done nothing to help him. And he will indeed prove that he was unique and probably without any obvious comparables.

I guess I don't see Allen as unrefined as you do, and I do not believe there was a universal and unequivocal agreement among all credible analysts - and certainly that is not what the Bills thought (or they wouldn't have traded all those picks, selected him 7th, and not bother to even find/keep a veteran on the roster). It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, what happened with any other QB is of no consequence regarding how Allen turns out. However, if you need some sort of reference point, then I would say Brett Favre comes to mind. There are numerous QBs who started on bad teams that became very good to HOF caliber QBs. However, I will choose Favre because he was looked at in much the same way as Allen. 

 

But, again, Allen is his own person. He will be successful if he possesses the physical and mental attributes necessary - and if he does not possess them, then he won't. 

[billsredneck1]

sorry i didn't read every post but the ones that argue about aikmen and manning are stupid arguments . 1989 and 1998 are far different than today's game and can in no way be compared to how a rookie today has a chance or not.  i personally think josh will make it , however i would admit it possible, his growth could be stunted by not having that vet in the room.

 

i can't believe they traded aj.  he may have been an" i'm starting or this is bs "guy.....and it very well may have been so, but it is what it is. josh will be fine or pummeled into submission.

it's all on the coaches now.

 

if mcd lets his...i mean leslie"s defense start out like last week again, i may just lose an other ounce of respect for him.

[Cripple Creek]

Truth be told, there are no definitives here. Some great QBs started from day one. Some of those great QBs were successful early, some were not. Some great QBs sat a bit. Some of those great QBs were successful early some were not.

 

Some craptastic QBs started at once, some sat for a bit. They were in the end craptastic.

 

Starting early doesn’t mean a QB will be successful or not. Surrounding talent, coaching, division opponents, injury,  karma...all play a part. Not all QBs with all the tools succeed. The reasons vary, but IMO have nothing to do with starting from day one.

[Phils n Bills]

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I guess I don't see Allen as unrefined as you do, and I do not believe there was a universal and unequivocal agreement among all credible analysts - and certainly that is not what the Bills thought (or they wouldn't have traded all those picks, selected him 7th, and not bother to even find/keep a veteran on the roster). It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, what happened with any other QB is of no consequence regarding how Allen turns out. However, if you need some sort of reference point, then I would say Brett Favre comes to mind. There are numerous QBs who started on bad teams that became very good to HOF caliber QBs. However, I will choose Favre because he was looked at in much the same way as Allen. 

 

But, again, Allen is his own person. He will be successful if he possesses the physical and mental attributes necessary - and if he does not possess them, then he won't. 

 

Again I don't know of any reputable commentator who doubted that JA was very raw and unpolished as a prospect. And it's hardly surprising given the path he had to follow to the NFL. And I'd be surprised frankly if the Bills didn't know this. And their decision to move forward without a veteran on the roster is obviously one that has attracted a lot of criticism. And if they thought he was ready to start why didn't they start him ahead of a clearly lesser talent.

In spite of his technical issues Josh Allen was going to be drafted high in the first round. Had the Bills not taken him at 7, the Cards would have at 8. The reason for that is his extraordinary natural/physical aptitudes for playing the all important position. But had he been drafted by Arizona he would be sitting behind a vet and learning, like Rosen, who right now is much more proficient as a passer than JA is. 

Favre didn't start until he was into his second year and on a team that was good enuf to go 9-7 and place second in the NFC Central. But I think you're right about Favre being an interesting comparable (even if you don't believe in comparables) and one that I hadn't thought of. I don't know how serious BFs issues were but for sure his accuracy was questioned and he was not considered a finished product. 

[Fadingpain]

9 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

This is not about growing or stepping up. This is about become a top tier franchise QB and if the Bills have created the right environment for that goal. 

He's a top 10 pick. Isn't it assumed that he is resilient, driven and tough as nails? 

I believe Allen is all of those things, but those will not be the primary reason he succeeds or fails.  

Actually, he's a 3rd round pick, taken in the top 10 by the Bills.

 

Those are 2 different things.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

Does it seem to anyone else like alot of posts are just about creating excuses in the event Allen doesn't play well?

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Actually, he's a 3rd round pick, taken in the top 10 by the Bills.

 

Those are 2 different things.

 

 

This is old and tired

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Tenhigh said:

I feel like I am in the upside down....

 

You didn't know? 

[Doc Brown]

I haven't seen any weaknesses in the kid's mental makeup that would make me think you could "ruin" him with a weak o-line and WR core so I'm not that concerned.  You can't beat on the field experience and learning from your mistakes.  I don't care how much film you study.  My concern with him is more of a physical one as he hasn't perfected the slide yet and he takes a lot of hits with this line.

[TheElectricCompany]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Allen's already demonstrated Hall of Fame potential.   

 

Geez Shaw. First the "Allen will be better than Mahomes in Year 2" comment, now this one? 

I didn't know they put Kool Aid in kegs! 

 

[Billznut]

9 hours ago, Pre1236 said:

Allen is in a terrible situation - to say otherwise is disingenuous. Doesn't mean he won't be successful but, if you are honest, can you imagine a worse situation for a prospect? Especially a prospect who is largely considered "raw".  How this organization thought it made sense to enter the season with Allen and Peterman as the only two QBs is downright alarming. 

You are exactly right. But be careful, here it’s heavily frowned upon to doubt McBeane or question the process. 

[Augie]

Well, this is good to know!

 

SI is still around....who knew? 

[billsfan89]

9 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Tim Couch, for one.

 

It's a pretty tough argument to support either way.  Guys who were never given a chance could just as easily be labeled as "not talented enough".

 

 

But Goff is a pretty good recent example.  His rookie year he was labeled a bust and pretty much written off.  Gurley was also labeled a one year wonder.  The Rams hired an innovative coach, completely overhauled their WR core and brought in a vet LT and Center, suddenly they are the best offense in football.  

 

Simply put, very few if any current "franchise QBs" around the league were put into a worse situation than Allen currently faces.  However, many "never was / draft busts" faced similar circumstances.  To pretend a guy should be so talented you can just roll the ball out there with anyone from day 1 and he'll make it work is one of the dumber things I've seen said on this forum.

 

My concerns with playing Allen behind a bad supporting cast is that his footwork development could be negatively impacted. But the Bills simply do not have a choice now and playing will help Allen improve in processing and decision making. 

 

I don't think you need to put every QB in a Mahomes like situation (Sits for a year and inherits a lot of offensive talent) but with a rookie QB you do need to have a plan to improve the talent around him? With Couch and Carr who were brutalized in their rookie years those franchises were expansion teams who were in need of 2-3 off-seasons worth of talent upgrades to get competitive. By the time those teams started to accrue talent those QB's went through 3 brutal seasons. 

 

With Goff his team was pretty bad his rookie year but they had a windfall of cap space to try and build a team around him, the signed a lot of offensive talent and traded for Sammy, they also had a good core defense. Within a year they had Goff with the tools he needed. 

 

The Bills will have the cap space to go out and make the big moves necessary, the Bills might even have a top pick to trade down and accrue more picks which could be a windfall of talent. So long term having a rough rookie year isn't a death sentence.  

[leonbus23]

10 hours ago, matter2003 said:

It's irrelevant.  People who succeed will do it regardless of the circumstances they are given.  If they have the talent, it won't matter. People who say this type of stuff are much more like Vontae Davis than Kyle Williams.  When the going gets tough they just cry and whine and pack up their things and go home.  PRetty sure Mark Sheppard is not very successful, people who are don't think like that.

First of all, Shep is an attorney in Chicago and doing fine. Second, tell your nonsense to David Carr. 

Edited September 20, 2018 by leonbus23

[DuckyBoys]

The Mahomes comparisons are ridiculous.  On guy has a established offensive line, Andy Reid who has developed several very good qbs and maybe the best set of skill position players in the NFL  The other has a offensive line with new starters at almost every spot,  a defensive mind basically rookie head coach and likely the worst receiving core in pro football.  Anyone think Mahomes would be thriving if the situations were reversed?

[The_Dude]

11 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Fire away!

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/18/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-rookie-starting-quarterback

 

 

 

That quote seems right to me. 

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Geez Shaw. First the "Allen will be better than Mahomes in Year 2" comment, now this one? 

I didn't know they put Kool Aid in kegs! 

 

First, it's standard operating procedure on message boards to misinterpret clear statements.   

 

Anyway, I will say here and now that anyone who doesn't see Hall of Fame potential in Allen is an idiot.  An idiot.

 

He has Peyton Manning size.   He runs and throws like Elway.  He stays upright in the pocket like Roethlisberger.   

 

Now before anyone says Shaw is nuts -  I didn't say he's going to the Hall of Fame, I didn't say he's as good as those guys.   BUT - if you're going to start a rookie QB and try to develop him into a quality starter in the NFL, why wouldn't you want to start with 6'5", 240, with speed, brains and a cannon?

 

I don't get all the whining.   I'll say it again:  I'm excited.   Bills have the best prospect at QB in the past 30 years, maybe ever.

[TheElectricCompany]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Bills have the best prospect at QB in the past 30 years, maybe ever.

 

Another doozy. 

Keep 'em coming. 

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Another doozy. 

Keep 'em coming. 

Yeah, that one was just for you.