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Philip Rivers: A Sobering Warning


Jerome007

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I think you're severely over thinking this.  Rivers is a franchise QB, yes that is a given. While I do think he's pretty overrated, for the sake of argument, I'll concede that he's been consistently a top 5 QB throughout his career.  So why have they made the playoffs 5 out of his 14 seasons? The answer is incredibly simple... coaching.

 

In Rivers' first season as a starter, the Chargers went 14-2.  They had Tomlinson in his prime and a decent defense, but the clear reason for their success was Schottenheimer.  He preached smart play with the ball and Rivers had an above average 22:9 TD to INT ratio while the team finished first in takeaways/giveaways.

 

Famously they fired Schottenheimer. Norv Turner and Mike McCoy aren't exactly world beaters, and I thought we all agreed the solution was Franchise QB + Great Coach = Good Team. There are some instances where a QB is good enough to succeed despite poor coaching and even fewer times when a good coach can be great with no QB, but the only proven formula is to have both.

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3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

Those seasons with sub 60% completion aren’t so fantastic.  15-17 are solid tho

 

 

He does have the same number of pro bowl appearances as TT ...?

 

Those sub 60% years were phenomenal.

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23 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Mabe by Detroit standards

 

In the two years in which he had under 60% completion rates:

  • 2nd in passing yards (Brees) and 6th in TDs in 2012.
  • 3rd in passing yards (Brees, Manning) and 5th in TDs in 2013.

 

There are 32 teams in the NFL.

 

He's elite ... and definitely elite in the two years in which he had under 60% completion rates.

 

Stop being silly.

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19 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Getting performance out of very opportunistic rookie K’s is critical under the cap for a rebuilding franchise like us—with the salary cap constraints being what they are and Beane probably having to overpay the 2019 FA’s, maybe the Seahawks model when they started their run with Wilson on his rookie deal leaving space for paying a monster D and key offensive playmakers around him is the way to emulate?

There are two current models for success. The one you describe here (essentially the Eagles model last year).  And the one where you have Tom Brady, Big Ben or Aaron Rodgers.  

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The Saints proved that having a top 5 QB doesn't guarantee consistent contention, it is a team game even if QB is the biggest piece it isn't a panacea . However even having a top 10 Tony Romo type QB is a huge advantage in the league but it still doesn't even guarantee you being in the playoffs consistently let alone title contention. 

 

But if you don't have a good QB your chances to compete are always very limited. Sure you could do what the Jags and several other teams in the past have done (Great defenses, solid special teams, and good talent around a QB on offense) but eventually guys on defense and surrounding the QB want to get paid and you can't keep them all or guys get old. Usually if you have stacked teams around a mediocre QB you have a 2-3 year window to make a run and even then you are most likely capped as to how far you can go (Eventually you run into a team with the better QB and a good defense.) 

 

Then after 2-3 years of deep playoff exits you fall off and you still don't have a QB. So in the end getting a QB is the most important part of building a team but it isn't the only part far from it. 

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21 hours ago, Jerome007 said:

 

A lot of us have high hope Josh Allen might at last be that all elusive “franchise QB” that would help the Bills be a winning team for years to come. And I’m one of them.

 

But Rivers again dismantling the Bills have me realizing this: can anyone doubt he is a franchise, elite QB? His play and stats are amazing. While Peyton, Brady and Rodgers were the top guys, Brees and Rivers were certainly close and among a lot of the Top 5 for the last DECADE.

 

Yet the Chargers made the playoffs only 5 times in the 14 seasons Rivers was there… Sobering fact you need more than a great QB, how much awesome it is. I think Rodgers is the best, yet the Packers success pales compare to the Cheatriots, and even to Manning’s Colts and Broncos.

 

I’d take the Packers and Saints’ records and SB win over the Bills’ drought, but the point is that a great QB is not the complete answer. And some teams did win the Superbowl with “manager type” QBs. Anyway, even if just for entertainment’s sake, let’s hope Allen becomes a star! But that maybe not be the final piece of the puzzle, just a good chunk of it.

I'll take those odds.

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11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I completely disagree. Josh Allen made his first start after getting ALL the first team reps for the first time for the Chargers game. And when QBs spit reps so much it doesn't give anyone enough time to sync with the receivers on the team. 

 

Then you have a bad O line, lousy receiving corps and NO run game to take pressure off the QB so he is mostly in 3rd and long all game. No to mention  that the one part of the team that was supposed to be good keeps allowing the team to get into a big hole points wise from the start. This defense was supposed to be decent and it is among the very worst in the league. 

 

All of that makes it incredibly difficult for any QB to succeed and especially so for a rookie QB. "IF" Allen survives this season somewhat intact I think he will be much better then both Rivers, Stafford. He can't do it alone though and no QB can. 

 

 

Lastly, Matt Stafford has had the very unfortunate luck to never have a big time RB or top defense to help him win games during the same season or top coaching for that matter. The man has thrown for over four thousand yards for eight years now and they still can't seem to build a fully competent team around him. When they did finally get a top defense they were 28th in rushing so they were a one trick pony team on offense.  Need balance all around. 

 

Rivers has had bad luck too as his 2006 team under shotty goes 14-2 with a top 2 offense and a top 10 defense and they run into the buzz saw of the Patriots in the playoffs at Qualcomm stadium in SD. 

 

I think we're all hoping that JA turns out great for our Bills...but MUCH better than Rivers ?....Are we talking P.Manning  or A. Rodgers level here ?....Let's pump the breaks a bit ....

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8 hours ago, Iron Maiden said:

 

I think we're all hoping that JA turns out great for our Bills...but MUCH better than Rivers ?....Are we talking P.Manning  or A. Rodgers level here ?....Let's pump the breaks a bit ....

It is my belief that Allen could be another Aaron Rodgers/Big ben only with a stronger arm and in fact probably the most powerful arm the NFL has ever seen. He has a lot of the same physical traits in that he is very mobile, huge at 6'5' 240lbs difficult to tackle at times.

 

Allen's release velocity is 72 MPH which is sorta insane. Four tenths of a second release time is in the elite category in the NFL and Allen has a release of point three eight seconds (.38 seconds.) 

 

The thing is Allen was supposed to sit this year to learn and develop. His coaches/GM are letting him down by starting him too soon. No veteran QB on the roster to help him learn the ropes either. Allen doesn't know how to read NFL defenses or know how to set pre-snap protections. His offensive line is so lame that they can't help with that like 90's Bills center Kent Hull would bark out protections for Jim Kelly. By starting Allen so soon this regime is taking a huge chance at ruining his development.

 

 

Watch the entire video

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On ‎9‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 4:21 AM, Fadingpain said:

I'll give you another sobering thought.

 

Josh in no way shows signs of ever playing on the level of Rivers, who will likely end up in the HOF.

 

Some have suggested Allen projects out to be a Matt Stafford type, if things go well.

 

Matt Stafford?  That's what everyone is so excited about around here?


What the hell has that guy ever done?

 

 

What is it about Allen that gets your fur up so badly??

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