Teddy KGB Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 How did any of y’all lose this week ? Chiefs/Panthers/Bears/Saints over were all free money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 27 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said: How did any of y’all lose this week ? Chiefs/Panthers/Bears/Saints over were all free money. cause I only play dog moneylines and not totals..that how? Again, I believe no wagers/ picks unless they in BEFORE the games..not after. I would be more than happy to administer a handicapping contest on the board..$50 ( or whatever $) a piece through the Superbowl. Whoever ends up with the biggest bankroll, wins the contest. Odds determined by Bovada on all games/parlays/teasers... We have enough time left to determine King of the Hill ..anyone else interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: cause I only play dog moneylines and not totals..that how? Again, I believe no wagers/ picks unless they in BEFORE the games..not after. I would be more than happy to administer a handicapping contest on the board..$50 ( or whatever $) a piece through the Superbowl. Whoever ends up with the biggest bankroll, wins the contest. Odds determined by Bovada on all games/parlays/teasers... We have enough time left to determine King of the Hill ..anyone else interested? Sounds good to me. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/vegas-says-nfl-week-9-was-a-disaster-as-sportsbooks-take-beating-for-surprising-third-straight-week/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 On 11/4/2018 at 2:38 PM, Elite Poster said: Always bet against the bills on money line in parlays with this coach and QB room. It's worked 6/8 and looking like 7/9 times. but that;s not the pattern Vegas wants to see. To win money they need closer to a 50/50 split. If they always lose ATS, Vegas will lose week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said: Sounds good to me. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/vegas-says-nfl-week-9-was-a-disaster-as-sportsbooks-take-beating-for-surprising-third-straight-week/amp/ From the linked article - I don't have much confidence that I'll be able to convince people here about how sports books make their money, but here it is -- sports books want to set their lines to get roughly 50% of the action on each side! When the lines are "wrong" and the wisdom of the crowd results in big over/underlays, the sports books are vulnerable to loss. This is what we mean when we say "Vegas lost big." You are not betting "against" Vegas; you are betting against a line and every other bettor out there. The Action Network's public money tracker shows 82 percent of the bets were on the Chiefs. William Hill releases ticket numbers every Sunday morning and their numbers had 91 percent of the tickets on the Chiefs and a whopping 88 percent of the money on Kansas City. Week 9 went poorly before that, but Jay Rood of MGM said the Chiefs covering turned it into a "disaster." "We were pretty much done at that point," Rood told Purdham. "Disaster." 19 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: but that;s not the pattern Vegas wants to see. To win money they need closer to a 50/50 split. If they always lose ATS, Vegas will lose week after week. Exactly. Glad to see someone understands ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 14 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: but that;s not the pattern Vegas wants to see. To win money they need closer to a 50/50 split. If they always lose ATS, Vegas will lose week after week. Yeah I mean Vegas just lost a crap load of money this past week. I will be using the Buffalo Bills to lose again in my parlay and it'll probably work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 On 11/6/2018 at 8:23 AM, The Frankish Reich said: From the linked article - I don't have much confidence that I'll be able to convince people here about how sports books make their money, but here it is -- sports books want to set their lines to get roughly 50% of the action on each side! When the lines are "wrong" and the wisdom of the crowd results in big over/underlays, the sports books are vulnerable to loss. This is what we mean when we say "Vegas lost big." You are not betting "against" Vegas; you are betting against a line and every other bettor out there. The Action Network's public money tracker shows 82 percent of the bets were on the Chiefs. William Hill releases ticket numbers every Sunday morning and their numbers had 91 percent of the tickets on the Chiefs and a whopping 88 percent of the money on Kansas City. Week 9 went poorly before that, but Jay Rood of MGM said the Chiefs covering turned it into a "disaster." "We were pretty much done at that point," Rood told Purdham. "Disaster." Exactly. Glad to see someone understands ... 3 I think we have had this argument before, and I will respectfully disagree that books do not like to take a side on some games. But will not litigate that again. There are some JUICY moneylines this week, and I do mean juicy. Course that means some big dog will need to win outright..the problem is finding 2 of 5 that will. Decided early on to play the Bills moneyline every week for poops and giggles..+265 today. Would feel better about that if Darnold was playing..but eh, maybe McCown be rusty. Some games I am looking at Lions +260 Dolphins +400 Raiders +385 Browns +230 Jaga are interesting today..taking more money as the dog..+125 ..something fishy about that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 On 10/21/2018 at 5:33 PM, plenzmd1 said: you are an expert betting the Bills..especially after the game is over!? I am a freaking hundred millionare if i get to bet games after they are finished! Have some stones and post before the game..not after Well i lost my ass today and yesterday since i can post my wins i can post my loses as well my teaser was 300 for 250 Buffalo +19 Buffalo/jets under 50 Cinncy +18 Indy +9 Parlay was 30 for 300 Indy -3 Indy/jags pver 48 1/2 Cinncy/saints under 53 1/2 Wash +3 1/2 And i put 30 on my buddys parlay Atl -6 & kc -16 1/2 killed it cant remember the rest of it off my head. Smh i started to just take buffalo to cover +7 1/2 straight up figured we would look like a real nfl team with barkley starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 (edited) 17 hours ago, ChattanoogaBills said: Well i lost my ass today and yesterday since i can post my wins i can post my loses as well my teaser was 300 for 250 Buffalo +19 Buffalo/jets under 50 Cinncy +18 Indy +9 Parlay was 30 for 300 Indy -3 Indy/jags pver 48 1/2 Cinncy/saints under 53 1/2 Wash +3 1/2 And i put 30 on my buddys parlay Atl -6 & kc -16 1/2 killed it cant remember the rest of it off my head. Smh i started to just take buffalo to cover +7 1/2 straight up figured we would look like a real nfl team with barkley starting yea..its never easy unless you are Stanford Steve. I had the Bills, Browns, and Lions yesterday..most of my money was on the Browns, of course, all moneylines. But overall a good, profitable day. Man, think the Titans were +400 or something...but i will not play moenyline against the Pats ever Edited November 12, 2018 by plenzmd1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Hmm, DC getting 3 at home to what I consider a very mediocre Texans team. The luck continues for the Texans as DC O line is really hurting..and any injury to a tackle could be devasting in game. And oh by the way, Josh Norman called out the atmosphere at Fedex as horrible( which it is) and stated they would rather play on the road. HMM..wonder how that goes over? And the Skins gave up 500 yds to Fitz last week...but only gave up 3 points..again luck rears its ugly head. Skins +135 as home dogs right now..67% of money on the Texans..not overwhelming but figure that will get to 70% by kickoff..think this may be my only play this weekend unless someone has an interesting idea here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 okay, , just locked in the Skins and the Jags. Jags +210 at home, everyone thinks they are getting drilled today..2/3 of my money on the skins..1/3 on the Jags .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 man..these are the days that test your will to keep gambling. Freaking brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 didnt post last week as was at game..but damn the Bills moneyline has been extremely profitable this year..no reason to change today @ +165!! Kinda like the Vikes @ +195 and its an angle prolly better for next week, but a small little flyer on the Radiers today +750 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) Well the 2018 season is nearing an end. Sucks because I was just getting into betting on the NFL. No way can I bet on other sports. For the season I am 26-14 on my straight bet wagers. 65% Have hit my last four. I stopped doing teasers weeks ago because I was 0-4 on them. This week I have: Texans +2.5 Bills +13.5 Ravens +5.5 Redskins +11 And a parlay of Ravens +4.5, Bills +12.5, Texans +2, Redskins +10 For the individual straight bets I have been buying as many points as the sportbook allows so that is why the spreads are different than the parlay. That worked out last week when i had the Jets +8 it paid out where as my parlay got a push at +7. When we played the Pats earlier in the year I took the Patriots giving 13.5 now I am taking the other side of that bet. Allen and the Bills haven't let a game get out of hand yet since he came back from injury. And I don't think it matters much that this game is in New England instead of Buffalo. On 12/2/2018 at 6:32 AM, plenzmd1 said: didnt post last week as was at game..but damn the Bills moneyline has been extremely profitable this year..no reason to change today @ +165!! Kinda like the Vikes @ +195 and its an angle prolly better for next week, but a small little flyer on the Radiers today +750 Do you only do ML's? You should maybe try switching to spreads. You were close on a lot of those ML's you posted including the earlier ones posted but they ended up losing in the end. Edited December 21, 2018 by Sammy Watkins' Rib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Well the 2018 season is nearing an end. Sucks because I was just getting into betting on the NFL. No way can I bet on other sports. For the season I am 26-14 on my straight bet wagers. 65% Have hit my last four. I stopped doing teasers weeks ago because I was 0-4 on them. This week I have: Texans +2.5 Bills +13.5 Ravens +5.5 Redskins +11 And a parlay of Ravens +4.5, Bills +12.5, Texans +2, Redskins +10 For the individual straight bets I have been buying as many points as the sportbook allows so that is why the spreads are different than the parlay. That worked out last week when i had the Jets +8 it paid out where as my parlay got a push at +7. When we played the Pats earlier in the year I took the Patriots giving 13.5 now I am taking the other side of that bet. Allen and the Bills haven't let a game get out of hand yet since he came back from injury. And I don't think it matters much that this game is in New England instead of Buffalo. Do you only do ML's? You should maybe try switching to spreads. You were close on a lot of those ML's you posted including the earlier ones posted but they ended up losing in the end. Congrats on the great year..that is awesome!!! I do only do money lines..been a good year this year even with the losses that woulda been wins!! Bills +550 this week...giddy up!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsSB2020 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Congrats on the great year..that is awesome!!! I do only do money lines..been a good year this year even with the losses that woulda been wins!! Bills +550 this week...giddy up!!!!!! I'm starting to go with far more moneyline dogs as opposed to taking the points. You have to learn to accept more losses but the hits are much better. I think it's a better approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, BillsSB2020 said: I'm starting to go with far more moneyline dogs as opposed to taking the points. You have to learn to accept more losses but the hits are much better. I think it's a better approach. but those weeks when you have two losses as opposed to two wins can be testing!!!!! My gig has always been if you like the underdog..bet the moneyline! Points only come into play 20% of the time...so you are giving up real money by taking the points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsSB2020 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said: but those weeks when you have two losses as opposed to two wins can be testing!!!!! My gig has always been if you like the underdog..bet the moneyline! Points only come into play 20% of the time...so you are giving up real money by taking the points. Exactly. It tests you in the moment but gambling like anything is all about the big picture. Of course you're pissed if the team loses by 2 catching 3 but if you have a long term strategy you just have to roll with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 41 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said: I'm starting to go with far more moneyline dogs as opposed to taking the points. You have to learn to accept more losses but the hits are much better. I think it's a better approach. I get how the payouts could be better but I'm not sure I could handle going weeks without hitting on a single bet. My strategy has been to play a 2-5 team parlay every week. That is how I get the chance for a big return. Basically all the straight wagers I make I also place a parlay on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsSB2020 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I get how the payouts could be better but I'm not sure I could handle going weeks without hitting on a single bet. My strategy has been to play a 2-5 team parlay every week. That is how I get the chance for a big return. Basically all the straight wagers I make I also place a parlay on them. Yeah. I rarely do parlays but if I did, I'd be more inclined to take points. I even like to take 2nd halfs ML on a team that's already winning. I JUST got screwed on Florida International because I could have taken 2nd half plus 4.5 and won and basically lost because Toledo had a successful 2 pt conversion. Very annoying but you have to live with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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