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Gregg Rosenthal: 2018 NFL QB Index - Ranking QBs from the Last Four Drafts

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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I'm in a similar boat to this point. My top 5 so far are Brees, Mahomes, Ryan, Goff, and Luck

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Ranking all 32 teams' quarterback play through Week 11 | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

As we close the door on Week 11 in the NFL, it’s time to look at Pro Football Focus’ season grades for all 32 teams’ quarterback play so far this season. The best of the best have likely already punched their tickets to the playoffs, while the signal-callers nearing the middle of the pack and below have work to do in order to get back on track under center.

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so basically 2/3 of the NFL has at worst a decent QB

 

still waiting into almost 20 seasons...

 

 

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The longer this season goes, Drew Brees looks more and more like the best quarterback leading the best team in football. And that, Gregg Rosenthal writes, is why he's the prohibitive MVP favorite. Plus, updated quarterback rankings!
 
 
Edited by 26CornerBlitz

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The NFL season began with the quarterback position looking deeper than ever and for once everything is going as planned. The top half of my quarterback rankings below is as strong as it's been since I started this exercise in 2014.
 
Aaron Rodgers has 20 touchdowns with one interception and it's considered a down year. Cam Newton is on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards and 32 touchdowns to go with his usual rushing stats, which would normally be good for a top-five showing. He's 10th. Baker Mayfield is having one of the best statistical seasons for a rookie quarterback ever and he's No. 15. Before he got hurtAndy Dalton was on pace to top 30 touchdowns, which would've been good for the second-highest total of his career, yet he's right in the middle of the rankings, just like he always is.
 
Stats are increasingly tricky to compare across eras, and eras can change fast. Nearly half the league's QBs are throwing for as many yards per attempt as Peyton Manning's career average. The best way to evaluate players is the same as it ever was -- compare them against their competition.
 
Below is my best attempt at taking a snapshot of the position through nearly three quarters of the season, using weekly grades from GamePass watching. The next complete 1-32 rankings will take place after the regular season ends.
 
NOTE: This is the Quarterback Index. The QBs are ranked based on 2018 play alone. The arrows reflect the changes since the midseason 32-man rankings.
 
2h5v12t.jpg

 

 

 

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On 11/8/2018 at 12:48 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

It's good to see two youngsters on the list - bodes well for the future of football.

 

Brees ought to be in the GOAT conversation.  

Edited by hondo in seattle
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1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 
The NFL season began with the quarterback position looking deeper than ever and for once everything is going as planned. The top half of my quarterback rankings below is as strong as it's been since I started this exercise in 2014.
 
Aaron Rodgers has 20 touchdowns with one interception and it's considered a down year. Cam Newton is on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards and 32 touchdowns to go with his usual rushing stats, which would normally be good for a top-five showing. He's 10th. Baker Mayfield is having one of the best statistical seasons for a rookie quarterback ever and he's No. 15. Before he got hurtAndy Dalton was on pace to top 30 touchdowns, which would've been good for the second-highest total of his career, yet he's right in the middle of the rankings, just like he always is.
 
Stats are increasingly tricky to compare across eras, and eras can change fast. Nearly half the league's QBs are throwing for as many yards per attempt as Peyton Manning's career average. The best way to evaluate players is the same as it ever was -- compare them against their competition.
 
Below is my best attempt at taking a snapshot of the position through nearly three quarters of the season, using weekly grades from GamePass watching. The next complete 1-32 rankings will take place after the regular season ends.
 
NOTE: This is the Quarterback Index. The QBs are ranked based on 2018 play alone. The arrows reflect the changes since the midseason 32-man rankings.
 
2h5v12t.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

Josh Allen has a ton of upside if he continues to take to coaching in order to leverage his physical gifts.  The pass to Foster in the Jags game was enough to think the future is better than it has been in years.

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Just now, BuffaloBill said:

Josh Allen has a ton of upside if he continues to take to coaching in order to leverage his physical gifts.  The pass to Foster in the Jags game was enough to think the future is better than it has been in years.

 

It was an overall encouraging performance that should provide hope for a further ascension. 

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It's still too early to judge. Teams will scout him in the offseason and the challenge will be for him to overcome tendencies. 25 or 26 games before we know. Right now a better Bortles is probably about right.

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QB INDEX
 
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This offseason will be unique because there are only three teams truly in need of answers at the quarterback position, writes Gregg Rosenthal. What should the Giants, Jaguars and Redskins do in 2019?
 
"There aren't many teams searching for a starting quarterback" is a statement that has almost never been true in the NFL. It is absolutely true at the moment.
 
The unprecedented depth at the position will impact this offseason's free-agent market and NFL draft, with fewer teams than a year ago likely to spend top dollar or a top pick on the position. While the market for available veteran quarterbacks still has to shake out, I see only three teams that appear absolutely desperate to find a new signal-caller this offseason.
 
Before getting to the quarterback rankings, let's look at which teams could be diving back into the QB pool this offseason.
Edited by 26CornerBlitz

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NFL Week 14 QB Power Rankings: Putting Patrick Mahomes' ridiculous season in perspective

 

 
There are just four weeks left in the NFL season. While that's sad, it does offer an opportunity to actually look at what's happening with some production from a historical perspective. We all know what Patrick Mahomes has done this year. It's been one of the biggest stories of the season. But what's stunning is Mahomes' production hasn't trailed off since his historical start to the season.
 
At this point Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdowns (41) and Adjusted Yards/Attempt (10.0). Somehow he doesn't lead the NFL in passing yards; Ben Roethlisbergerpassed him this past week and has a slight lead. Mahomes is going to blitz past 4,000 yards this weekend and it would be surprise if he didn't hit 50 passing touchdowns at some point, especially with Kareem Hunt now gone and the Chiefsforced to lean on the passing game. KC won't sit guys, not with the Chargers chasing them and needing to hold off New England. This is going to be a massive season when Mahomes finishes. 
 
But where does it stand historically? Currently Mahomes has 3,923 yards and those 41 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions while completing 66.9 percent of his passes. Here's the list of people to ever throw for 3,900 yards, 40 touchdowns, 15 or less picks with 65 percent completion:
 
Patrick Mahomes (2018)
Aaron Rodgers (2016)
Peyton Manning (2013)
Drew Brees (2011)
Aaron Rodgers (2011)
Tom Brady (2007)
Peyton Manning (2004)
Kurt Warner (1999)
 
43yc4.jpg

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QB Index: Brady Inches Closer to Top Five Ranking

NOTE: This is the Quarterback Index. The QBs are ranked based on 2018 play alone. The next ranking of all 32 starters comes after Week 17.

 

Nearly three years after the 2016 NFL Draft, the Rams and Eagles wouldn't change a thing. The debate between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz had no wrong answer, although it certainly didn't look that way two years ago at this time.

 

Goff's career trajectory is yet another lesson in allowing players to mature before removing hot takes from the oven. It's no surprise that a 22-year-old quarterback didn't thrive under Jeff Fisher, but I am struck by how these two quarterbacks' early paths have diverged since Wentz tore his left ACL in a shootout with Goff's Rams in Los Angeles this week one year ago.

 

Sunday's rematch was supposed to be a chance for Wentz to put that memory behind him, but NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Thursday that tests revealed Wentz has a fracture in his back, which makes him unlikely to play this week and could keep him out the rest of the season.

 

Wentz has struggled with injury luck dating back to his final season at North Dakota State, when he suffered a broken wrist. The bigger concern after 40 NFL starts remains his accuracy. His completion percentage went up this season (from 60.2 to 69.6) coming off his knee injury, although that was largely due to a dink-and-dunk Eagles offense that failed to push the ball down the field. Wentz still looks like a star, though, and mixed in some of the jaw-dropping plays that had him rated as a strong MVP candidate a year ago. He's among the toughest quarterbacks to bring down and completes high-degree-of-difficulty throws. But too often this year, Wentz made poor decisions or missed routine passes, with the back issues, which Rapoport says date back to October, as a potential explanation.

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On 11/20/2018 at 1:53 PM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm in a similar boat to this point. My top 5 so far are Brees, Mahomes, Ryan, Goff, and Luck

 

Matty Ice is so under-rated, I don't care who hates that opinion. The guys is in the upper echelon statistically and recently took his team to the Super Bowl, and the talking heads still act as if he needs to turn a corner, like he's in the Ryan Tannehill tier or something. Blows my mind. The fact that he's 8th on that index currently says everything. He's never really good enough to be on the A team and has to prove it every year it seems.

 

Same for Julio Jones, really. The guy might have 1,800 yards receiving this year yet he's always getting knocked for his touchdown totals. It's as if the whole Atlanta offense is still getting dinged for that Super Bowl meltdown.

Edited by Nelius

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4 minutes ago, Nelius said:

 

Matty Ice is so under-rated, I don't care who hates that opinion. The guys is in the upper echelon statistically and recently took his team to the Super Bowl, and the talking heads still act as if he needs to turn a corner, like he's in the Ryan Tannehill tier or something. Blows my mind. The fact that he's 8th on that index currently says everything. He's never really good enough to be on the A team and has to prove it every year it seems.

 

Same for Julio Jones, really. The guy might have 1,800 yards receiving this year yet he's always getting knocked for his touchdown totals. It's as if the whole Atlanta offense is still getting dinged for that Super Bowl meltdown.

 

I disagree.  Ryan to me is overrated.  Falcons choke year after year no matter who the coach is.  Every year they struggle to even contend for the playoffs, and most years don’t get there.  Multiple times they started off hot and still missed playoffs.   And it is an issue that Julio isn’t more of a red zone threat.  Whose fault is it?  His or Ryan’s?  Why can’t they use his size better in red zone?  

 

Ryan isn’t a bad QB, but him, Stafford, Cousins aren’t a lot different for me.  He can compile stats but struggles to win, especially in big moments.  Falcons just always come up short.  He’s had more to work with than guys like Brady, Wilson, etc but yet doesn’t get the job done like they do.  

 

Every year its more excuses, but why?  Why this far into his career are they still making excuses for Ryan and why the Falcons don’t win more?  It’s not like he lacks weapons, they have been loaded with weapons.

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14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I disagree.  Ryan to me is overrated.  Falcons choke year after year no matter who the coach is.  Every year they struggle to even contend for the playoffs, and most years don’t get there.  Multiple times they started off hot and still missed playoffs.   And it is an issue that Julio isn’t more of a red zone threat.  Whose fault is it?  His or Ryan’s?  Why can’t they use his size better in red zone?  

 

Ryan isn’t a bad QB, but him, Stafford, Cousins aren’t a lot different for me.  He can compile stats but struggles to win, especially in big moments.  Falcons just always come up short.  He’s had more to work with than guys like Brady, Wilson, etc but yet doesn’t get the job done like they do.  

 

Every year its more excuses, but why?  Why this far into his career are they still making excuses for Ryan and why the Falcons don’t win more?  It’s not like he lacks weapons, they have been loaded with weapons.

 

I don't get how losing the Super Bowl = struggling to contend for the playoffs?

 

Choke or not that team with Ryan was 2nd best recently, which I would assume should mean something to a fanbase that prides itself on an extended run as the 2nd best.

 

I should add that I'm not a fan of Stafford, and I don't think Cousins was worth it. Neither are in the same tier as Matt Ryan in my opinion. That's kind of my point. Ryan should be edging his way into the elite, but he's still largely mired in the mid-tier with these QBs who truly haven't done anything. Ryan lost a Superbowl, Stafford can't win a playoff game.

Edited by Nelius

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4 minutes ago, Nelius said:

 

I don't get how losing the Super Bowl = struggling to contend for the playoffs?

 

Choke or not that team with Ryan was 2nd best recently, which I would assume should mean something to a fanbase that prides itself on an extended run as the 2nd best.

 

They are 43-50 over the last 6 seasons.  They made playoffs twice during that span.  What’s confusing by my statement that they struggle to even make the playoffs?  

 

I mean Rex Grossman started in the SB as the starting QB for the Bears.  Making one SB and losing doesn’t make him amazing.  

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Matt Ryan playoffs record - 4-6 

 

Matt Stafford playoffs record - 0-3

Kirk Cousins - 0-1

Andy Dalton - 0-4

 

let's take it up a notch:

 

Philip Rivers - 4-5

Andrew Luck - 3-3

Cam Newton - 3-4

 

You compared Ryan to Group A. Further proof that Matt Ryan is underrated.

 

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15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They are 43-50 over the last 6 seasons.  They made playoffs twice during that span.  What’s confusing by my statement that they struggle to even make the playoffs?  

 

 

Yeah, 2 of 6 despite the results is kind of hard to argue with as it's still well outside of Brady/Rodgers/Brees, but it's still much better than the Lions, or Bengals, or most of the league. I'll settle with Matt Ryan being in a lonely B+ tier all by himself. He's definitely outgrown the Stafford tier.

Edited by Nelius

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26 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Matt Ryan playoffs record - 4-6 

 

Matt Stafford playoffs record - 0-3

Kirk Cousins - 0-1

Andy Dalton - 0-4

 

let's take it up a notch:

 

Philip Rivers - 4-5

Andrew Luck - 3-3

Cam Newton - 3-4

 

You compared Ryan to Group A. Further proof that Matt Ryan is underrated.

 

 

Well that’s also skewing it.  Ryan got most the playoff wins in one season when they made the SB, but choked.  

 

I am not saying he’s a bad QB or even that it’s all his fault.  I just think he is rated right about where he should be is all and was addressing the under rated part.

 

I mean can you even put him in the top 10?  It’s close, I think he falls just outside that for me.

 

Top 3 are still (in no particular order) Brady, Brees, Rodgers.  I get Mahomes season, but not gonna unseat one of those top 3 yet as he hasn’t won anything yet and need to see him have another good season next year.  I do think he will, but until it happens, not gonna bump any of the top 3 yet for him.

 

Next 5 in no particular order:  Mahomes, Wilson, Big Ben, Goff, Luck. 

 

Thats 8, then you have guys like Ryan, Newton, Watson, Rivers, Wentz, Stafford.  I would put Ryan in this group, I can see someone putting him first in this group ranking him 9th or even maybe like 3rd making him 11th.  

 

So I think he’s rated about where he should be.  I can’t see putting him ahead of any of the top 8.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well that’s also skewing it.  Ryan got most the playoff wins in one season when they made the SB, but choked.  

 

I am not saying he’s a bad QB or even that it’s all his fault.  I just think he is rated right about where he should be is all and was addressing the under rated part.

 

I mean can you even put him in the top 10?  It’s close, I think he falls just outside that for me.

 

Top 3 are still (in no particular order) Brady, Brees, Rodgers.  I get Mahomes season, but not gonna unseat one of those top 3 yet as he hasn’t won anything yet and need to see him have another good season next year.  I do think he will, but until it happens, not gonna bump any of the top 3 yet for him.

 

Next 5 in no particular order:  Mahomes, Wilson, Big Ben, Goff, Luck. 

 

Thats 8, then you have guys like Ryan, Newton, Watson, Rivers, Wentz, Stafford.  I would put Ryan in this group, I can see someone putting him first in this group ranking him 9th or even maybe like 3rd making him 11th.  

 

So I think he’s rated about where he should be.  I can’t see putting him ahead of any of the top 8.  

 

 

 

Right on, I agree with most of this, but if Ryan's in that third tier then I'd move him to the head of the pack and knock Stafford out of it completely. I think Ryan is pretty much in lock-step with Luck right now, although far more durable which is a huge plus. Big Ben, Wilson, Goff are in that cloudy second realm too, I wouldn't have issue with anybody ranking Ryan ahead of any of them. Mahomes can definitely hang with the big boys and is probably a step ahead.

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