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SI's Andy Benoit: Buffalo Bills 2018 Season Preview


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11 hours ago, 1st&ten said:

Who the hell is Andy Benoit ?  Is this what I'm missing out on by not being on twitter.

Twitter is good for up to the minute injury updates if you follow the right people, it helps a lot for fantasy football. It's also good for me because I work nights and I get to see Trumps late night drunk tweets right when they happen.

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3 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

Twitter is good for up to the minute injury updates if you follow the right people, it helps a lot for fantasy football. It's also good for me because I work nights and I get to see Trumps late night drunk tweets right when they happen.

I’m not sure if you’re aware or not but the President doesn’t drink and never has. 

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A reasonable person can predict a Bills regression.  While I believe they will be closer to 8-8, there are legit concerns.

 

What I do not understand is how Miami and NYJ can be seen as that much better than the Bills.  They also have significant warts that will hinder their win total.  This makes his Bills projection less understandable.

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17 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Is this real life?  Allen’s ceiling is higher than Newton’s?  The guy who dominated the SEC, won a heisman and national championship, set rookie passing records, went 15-1, won MVP, and went to the SB?  

 

At least, you have realistic expectations! ?

 

Even if there's only a 1% chance it happens, Josh does have a higher ceiling in my opinion. Let's leave college accolades out of NFL evals- they aren't relevant unless we want to bring back Tebow, Colt McCoy, or Vince Young.

 

I know Josh had had troubles with accuracy (or at least comp%), but he is raw. Let's talk about Cam for a minute. Yes, broke rookie passing record- but never matched that 4000 mark again, and had 21/17 TD/INT. On top of that he has only topped 60% completion twice (career comp% 58.5%), and throws picks like crazy (career 158/94 TD/INT). While leading the Panthers, they have had 3 winning years and 4 losing years, good less than 50% of the time. Yes he got an MVP but is wildly inconsistent, and really is not even top-10 QBs in the league right now. Also, let's not pretend you have to be a great QB to get to a SB- I watched Kaep and Flacco in one.

 

Though I know you don't want to lend him any credence- Josh is prototype size (much like Cam), but has a much stronger arm, and Josh is not a me-first d-bag. Everyone talks about how hard Josh works and studies, but with Cam you get an arrogant elitist who couldn't seem to stop stealing things in college. People don't like Cam. I'm not trying to slam him, but...

 

Character wise he is miles behind Josh

Arm strength wise he is behind Josh

 

Which means IF (and it's a BIG if) Josh realizes his potential, he has a chance to be much better than the perrenially overrated Carolina QB at least as a thrower/QB though he will never be as good of a RB as Cam or TuhRod.

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22 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Not to knock Benoit, but how much actual understanding of the Bills can he have from Idaho? He can certainly read and watch some video but that’s a far cry from being there in person.  

 

Always interesting to to hear an ‘outsiders’ take, though. 

 

 

Astro Notes.

 

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22 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Not to knock Benoit, but how much actual understanding of the Bills can he have from Idaho? He can certainly read and watch some video but that’s a far cry from being there in person.  

 

Always interesting to to hear an ‘outsiders’ take, though. 

 

It's 2018 and this shouldn't even be an actual question given all of the ways to follow/watch a team to become familiar with personnel.

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It's easy to create the narrative you want to support your conclusion.  He wanted to conclude the Bills will be bad, and maybe they will be.  But he skews the argument in multiple ways to make his point. 

 

He says the Bills were horrible in yards gained and yards allowed.  True. But they were much, much better in points scored and points allowed. The NFL is not a yards league, it's a points league.  

 

He says the Bills were lucky because of McD's coaching.  Well, maybe he's just a very good coach.

 

He ignores the possibility that Allen could be really good.  

 

He ignores that the offensive line returns three starters and in Miller and Grey have two guys with substantial experience.  

 

He just chooses to write about the things that COULD be bad to prove that the BIlls WILL be bad. 

3 hours ago, Shotgunner said:

 

Even if there's only a 1% chance it happens, Josh does have a higher ceiling in my opinion. Let's leave college accolades out of NFL evals- they aren't relevant unless we want to bring back Tebow, Colt McCoy, or Vince Young.

 

I know Josh had had troubles with accuracy (or at least comp%), but he is raw. Let's talk about Cam for a minute. Yes, broke rookie passing record- but never matched that 4000 mark again, and had 21/17 TD/INT. On top of that he has only topped 60% completion twice (career comp% 58.5%), and throws picks like crazy (career 158/94 TD/INT). While leading the Panthers, they have had 3 winning years and 4 losing years, good less than 50% of the time. Yes he got an MVP but is wildly inconsistent, and really is not even top-10 QBs in the league right now. Also, let's not pretend you have to be a great QB to get to a SB- I watched Kaep and Flacco in one.

 

Though I know you don't want to lend him any credence- Josh is prototype size (much like Cam), but has a much stronger arm, and Josh is not a me-first d-bag. Everyone talks about how hard Josh works and studies, but with Cam you get an arrogant elitist who couldn't seem to stop stealing things in college. People don't like Cam. I'm not trying to slam him, but...

 

Character wise he is miles behind Josh

Arm strength wise he is behind Josh

 

Which means IF (and it's a BIG if) Josh realizes his potential, he has a chance to be much better than the perrenially overrated Carolina QB at least as a thrower/QB though he will never be as good of a RB as Cam or TuhRod.

It's a lot better than 1%.  perennially overrated is right.  Newton seems to be effectively only of he runs often, and even then he isn't great. 

 

Allen almost certainly is a better thrower.  

 

He's smarter. 

 

His ego is in check.  

 

I wouldn't trade Allen for Newton even up. 

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Just now, Shaw66 said:

It's easy to create the narrative you want to support your conclusion.  He wanted to conclude the Bills will be bad, and maybe they will be.  But he skews the argument in multiple ways to make his point. 

 

He says the Bills were horrible in yards gained and yards allowed.  True. But they were much, much better in points scored and points allowed. The NFL is not a yards league, it's a points league.  

 

He says the Bills were lucky because of McD's coaching.  Well, maybe he's just a very good coach.

 

He ignores the possibility that Allen could be really good.  

 

He ignores that the offensive line returns three starters and in Miller and Grey have two guys with substantial experience.  

 

He just chooses to write about the things that COULD be bad to prove that the BIlls WILL be bad. 

 

Turnover differential accounted for much of this.  Can they repeat at that level?

 

He's right about the Bills' 2018 OL as much as you try to paint a rosy picture.

 

He's paid to offer his opinion based on the talent on hand rather than an optimistic forecast that Bills' fans want to read about.

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Can't really disagree with his take.  Our roster is pretty pitiful, but it's not really any worse than last season.  We really only have three things going for us: Culture, coaching and LeSean McCoy.  Last year's playoff appearance was manna from heaven for the fanbase, but I've always viewed this as a 2-3 year rebuild.

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22 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

We'll have to agree to disagree. The Bills O-Line was looked at as a top 10 unit last year and it's potentially the worst in the league this year. For example, PFF had them ranked as the 7th best in the league by the end of the season last year and has them ranked #29 entering the season.

 

Tyrod was roughly an average to above average starter last year, and more importantly, he protected the ball at an astonishing rate (sometimes to the team's detriment). That ability to protect the ball, coupled with the defense forcing turnovers at an elite rate, is pretty much the only things that Buffalo really did well last season. Even with McCoy and a good O-Line, they didn't run the ball all that well. Obviously they didn't pass it that well either, but the fact that they didn't turn the ball over and also forced turnovers at a huge rate was easily the biggest factor in the team winning 9 games. That just isn't going to happen this year. I'm confident in Allen and think he'll develop into a very good QB in the future, but it would be very surprising if Buffalo gets improved QB play this season unless it's a result of a far better offensive system thanks to Daboll.

 

Edit: I’ll put it this way. Tyrod was #13 QB on PFF and #14 in QBR. I don’t expect the Bills starting QB in 2018 to be ranked higher than either of those this year. 

why then were we just 15 yds. from being dead last in passing offense last year?    i'm going out on a limb here, but i'm thinking upgrade...

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43 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Just heard a little bit of him on One Bills Live and was impressed with his knowledge of offensive scheming. Not a fan of his 4 win prediction for us.

 

 

 

He's a good analyst, but I think four wins is too low for 2018.

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I feel very fortunate to have learned that preseason prognostications from afar mean absolutely nothing. Not saying he’s wrong, just saying he has as much information and credibility as anyone with an internet connection and even that doesn’t really get you much. 

 

We we will see what happens soon enough. 

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1 minute ago, dubs said:

I feel very fortunate to have learned that preseason prognostications from afar mean absolutely nothing. Not saying he’s wrong, just saying he has as much information and credibility as anyone with an internet connection and even that doesn’t really get you much. 

 

We we will see what happens soon enough. 

 

Can't agree with that.

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