theRalph Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Time for another RalphRant: This post's title is insane...maybe. But it is no more insane than the negatively charged, analytics infested, 3 -13 cover-your-ass sort of drivel I've been hearing about the Bills' chances this season. This inanity has been largely present in the national press, but also in the local radio shows. A national guest on the Flagship the other day even went so far as to say the Bills are the worst team in the league. Of course this notion is espoused and spread like foul flatulence by the current crowd of drippy analytics geeks that have no index for heart and desire. Here are my five reasons the Bills will surprise the league this year, indeed returning to the playoffs... 1. Josh Allen will excel as a rookie QB. "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck. There is the Eyeball Test and the "it" factor, which Allen passes and possesses, respectively. He came from a program that was under-talented, but this is of great value to him since he is already familiar with adversity. The other high QB picks don't share this attribute. He has progressed before the Bills' eyes, and he is obviously completely unafraid to aggressively throw anywhere on the field (in addition to being probably the most gifted prospect in a generation). The only reason there is no real QB separation yet is that they're all playing well. 2. Contrary to the annoying opinion of the local afternoon radio host, words like "process", "family", "DNA", "culture","chemistry", "got-your-back", "attitude" and "accountable" do indeed have a huge impact on the performance of a team. And Sean McDermott is a firm believer in this. It has much to do with the Bills playoff appearance last season. Even the Dalton throw. It's the Law of Attractions at work. The Bills outdo many, if not most other teams in this regard I believe. This was in evidence last season. How much better will it be this season? 3. The Bills' Defense is in it's Sophomore year, with a highly regarded DC, and stocked with inarguably more talent than last year's squad. There is no rational reason for them not to improve. The secondary, so important in today's NFL, may be amongst the best in the league. 4. This is meant for the receivers, but applies to all players. It is very, very difficult to make the NFL. Rex once said it's easier to win the lottery, which is accurate. This just in: The level of talent in the NFL is pretty even across the board. The players are all good. But there is more than talent, much more. There is team, intelligence, experience, coaching, and effort, and yes, character (see point 2). There is some speed at the receiver position now, but this notion that the Bills receiver group was so bad is crap. They're all good. An intelligent offense that throws into mismatches (check) and good and great throws (check) make receivers look great. Our receiving corps is just fine. This also applies to the O-Line. It's so much more about scheme and team. They're all good. 5. The point about the schedule difficulty is not a point at all, but more a surfeit of inane projections based on reputation and expection, not performance. These teams are all new and all different. We have to see the performance. The Bills will be a tough out on the road and will be a surprise early in the season. Shady is going to blossom into something we haven't seen before, simply because a pass offense exists. They're going to be better. Period. I do wonder what kind of odds one could get on that Allen bet... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 So analytics are valid and valuable, and also useless. Gotcha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 29 minutes ago, theRalph said: Time for another RalphRant: This post's title is insane...maybe. But it is no more insane than the negatively charged, analytics infested, 3 -13 cover-your-ass sort of drivel I've been hearing about the Bills' chances this season. This inanity has been largely present in the national press, but also in the local radio shows. A national guest on the Flagship the other day even went so far as to say the Bills are the worst team in the league. Of course this notion is espoused and spread like foul flatulence by the current crowd of drippy analytics geeks that have no index for heart and desire. Here are my five reasons the Bills will surprise the league this year, indeed returning to the playoffs... 1. Josh Allen will excel as a rookie QB. "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck. There is the Eyeball Test and the "it" factor, which Allen passes and possesses, respectively. He came from a program that was under-talented, but this is of great value to him since he is already familiar with adversity. The other high QB picks don't share this attribute. He has progressed before the Bills' eyes, and he is obviously completely unafraid to aggressively throw anywhere on the field (in addition to being probably the most gifted prospect in a generation). The only reason there is no real QB separation yet is that they're all playing well. 2. Contrary to the annoying opinion of the local afternoon radio host, words like "process", "family", "DNA", "culture","chemistry", "got-your-back", "attitude" and "accountable" do indeed have a huge impact on the performance of a team. And Sean McDermott is a firm believer in this. It has much to do with the Bills playoff appearance last season. Even the Dalton throw. It's the Law of Attractions at work. The Bills outdo many, if not most other teams in this regard I believe. This was in evidence last season. How much better will it be this season? 3. The Bills' Defense is in it's Sophomore year, with a highly regarded DC, and stocked with inarguably more talent than last year's squad. There is no rational reason for them not to improve. The secondary, so important in today's NFL, may be amongst the best in the league. 4. This is meant for the receivers, but applies to all players. It is very, very difficult to make the NFL. Rex once said it's easier to win the lottery, which is accurate. This just in: The level of talent in the NFL is pretty even across the board. The players are all good. But there is more than talent, much more. There is team, intelligence, experience, coaching, and effort, and yes, character (see point 2). There is some speed at the receiver position now, but this notion that the Bills receiver group was so bad is crap. They're all good. An intelligent offense that throws into mismatches (check) and good and great throws (check) make receivers look great. Our receiving corps is just fine. This also applies to the O-Line. It's so much more about scheme and team. They're all good. 5. The point about the schedule difficulty is not a point at all, but more a surfeit of inane projections based on reputation and expection, not performance. These teams are all new and all different. We have to see the performance. The Bills will be a tough out on the road and will be a surprise early in the season. Shady is going to blossom into something we haven't seen before, simply because a pass offense exists. They're going to be better. Period. I do wonder what kind of odds one could get on that Allen bet... Concur. There have been many years since the SB days where we've had plenty of talent, but not the leadership needed to make a good team. Last year, we had less talent than many other years yet made the playoffs. One word: leadership. I firmly believe the Pegulas have found the best young coach in the NFL and he has brought tons of leadership talent over to us in the form of Beane, Frazier, Daboll, etc. Clap away McD! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimKellyTryouts Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 He'll have at least 5 SB MVP awards in his first 3 years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theRalph Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 1 hour ago, JoPar_v2 said: So analytics are valid and valuable, and also useless. Gotcha Not what I wrote. I said “to a degree”. Thx for reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 1 minute ago, theRalph said: Not what I wrote. I said “to a degree”. Thx for reading! What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Why not?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Trusting the process 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Process Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Stranger more unlikely things have happened. What were the odds of going to the bowl 4 straight years!? ....almost 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 100-1 for any Bills QB to win it. Get it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watkins101 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 7 hours ago, JimKellyTryouts said: He'll have at least 5 SB MVP awards in his first 3 years. The first 3 would come in the first year where they would redo the Super Bowl because the bills actually won it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Like that guys GPA in Animal House............ZEROOOOOO......POINT.....ZEROOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 I’d bet your house 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 8 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one. LOL OK Socrates … you are fixating on a technical incongruity and missing the overall point completely. But as another poster said, we will know more when JA plays this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 the odds are 1:1 we's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 9 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one. You're right. "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck". For those old enough to remember, this thought could have come out of the mouth of Norm Crosby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBytheBay Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 12 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: So analytics are valid and valuable, and also useless. Gotcha We'll, yes. You actually explianed them perfectly. It's important to understand that trends get bucked and you can't create a vacuum to view them in. They are a guide to probability. In poker, there is a hand known as the Brunson. Dude won with a 2 and 10. LOW probability. Very low, but he played it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Good question, what are the odds? anyone? The Bills 2nd year HC McD is building a Championship caliber D in my humble opinion. Smart play from the QB position can get the job done. Josh Allen has the highest wonderlic score in the draft class. (I'm just saying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBytheBay Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Figster said: Good question, what are the odds? anyone? The Bills 2nd year HC McD is building a Championship caliber D in my humble opinion. Smart play from the QB position can get the job done. Josh Allen has the highest wonderlic score in the draft class. (I'm just saying) Man, I'd blow $50 of the odds we're insaine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 5 hours ago, Commonsense said: Just now, JaxBills said: Man, I'd blow $50 of the odds we're insaine! 100-1 for any Bills QB to win it. Get it in Nice payout even at that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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