Bills Offense ‘17 vs ‘18

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

 

And while I agree coaching does matter, especially with a young qb, Daboll’s nfl resume is actually worse than Dennison’s.  I think too often we blame the coaches for the players’ failings. Last year’s offense group sucked talent wise and on paper, this year’s group isn’t that much better/ if at all.  The obvious wildcard is if Allen is a franchise qb.

 

Agree completely about Daboll.  There's not a lot of evidence saying he will be good.  But if he's good, McCarron and the Bill's offense will be good enough.  If he's bad, Tom Brady wouldn't help, let alone Josh Allen.  

[corta765]

I prefer 2018 for RB, WR and 2017 for O-line.

 

TE is a wash same group.

 

QB is unknown at this point but I think they should have a bit more success now with Coleman and the scheme they are running. Zay Jones is frankly where he should've been before in the WR4 spot assuming he even makes the team. Cam Phillips has been sensational in camp and I'd put him over Zay at this point.

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Agree completely about Daboll.  There's not a lot of evidence saying he will be good.  But if he's good, McCarron and the Bill's offense will be good enough.  If he's bad, Tom Brady wouldn't help, let alone Josh Allen.  

Agreed.  Personally, if we had a guy like McVay or Reid, I’m feel a ton better about the Allen pick.  I also wish we had a QB coach who had more of a history working with qbs.

[wnysteel]

11 hours ago, SCBills said:

’17 KB/Zay/Thompson/Holmes 

‘18 KB/Coleman/Kerley/Zay

 

-Replace Thompson with Coleman/Kerley

 

 

no Benjamin? in either year?

[Real McClappy]

We are somewhat better on paper this year I guess.

 

The 3 huge question marks are QB, Daboll and the O-line. 

 

O-line - 100% worse IMO

Daboll - Wasn't that great of an OC prior to coming here 

QB - Not sure it can get worse but anything is possible with constant turnovers, TT's biggest strength as a QB and weakness at the same time playing scared not trusting his WR's to make a play. 

[Happy]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not to get in this whole can of worms but Sammy was huge part of what opened things up for Gurley and the other wrs.  It blows my mind that some fans can’t even realize what a big threat in your passing game Does for the rest of your offense.  He also had 8 tds, more than all Bills wrs combined, and a really good offense coach just paid him a lot of money.  He also had very good chemistry with Tyrod when healthy.  

 

And while I agree coaching does matter, especially with a young qb, Daboll’s nfl resume is actually worse than Dennison’s.  I think too often we blame the coaches for the players’ failings. Last year’s offense group sucked talent wise and on paper, this year’s group isn’t that much better/ if at all.  The obvious wildcard is if Allen is a franchise qb.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DennRi0.htm

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm

 

 

I see your point indicating Daboll has never really stood out as an OC.  IMO, Dennison appears to be the better coach due to his association with Gary Kubiak.  We saw what happened when Dennison was not with Kubiak and it wasn't good.  Dennison seemed to know only one way to execute an offense and a certain type of player needed; if anything changed or was different than what he knew, he was not successful.  I guess all we can do is hope McD made a good decision with Daboll and this time he is successful.

[quinnearlysghost88]

if i needed to win right now? '17. 

[OCinBuffalo]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And while I agree coaching does matter, especially with a young qb, Daboll’s nfl resume is actually worse than Dennison’s.  I think too often we blame the coaches for the players’ failings. Last year’s offense group sucked talent wise and on paper, this year’s group isn’t that much better/ if at all.  The obvious wildcard is if Allen is a franchise qb.

 

The only line on the resume that I care about is: what did the coach do when he was here/what is he doing while here.

 

Dennison took the NFL's #1(2?) rushing attack, broke it, tried to glue it back together his way, for no other reason that devotion to his dopey sytem. Then, when that failed, he re-broke it, and tried to glue it back together the way it was. He should have left it the F alone, and focused his effort on the passing game...which ended up being 29th. He essentially had the same players in 2017, in the run game, as we had in 2016. So, no, it's not about the players failing. I'll spot you Sammy leaving, but that's still no excuse for F'ing up the running game as badly as he did.

 

Dennision left things worse than when he found them = -5. Daboll can score a 0 this year, and would still be will be better than Dennison. Besides, there is not much room to move backwards from 29. IF Daboll just gets the running game right, he's already better than Dennison. Moving us from 29th in passing = already better than Dennision.

 

I know it's hard to remember games from last season but, I am telling you: fixing this offense is a lot easier than most people think, regardless of who is playing on O line. The #1 fix for last year's offense was changing coaches, and that has already occurred.

Edited August 6, 2018 by OCinBuffalo

[John from Riverside]

15 hours ago, SCBills said:

Projected ‘18:

 

‘17 Dawkins/Incognito/Wood/Ducasse/Mills

’18 Dawkins/Ducasse/Bodine(Groy)/Miller/Mills

 

-Replace Incognito/Wood with Miller/Bodine(Groy)

 

’17 McCoy/Tolbert/Cadet

’18 McCoy/Ivory/Cadet

 

-Replace Tolbert with Ivory

 

’17 DiMarco

’18 DiMarco

 

’17 Clay/O’Leary/Thomas

’18 Clay/O’Leary/Thomas

 

’17 KB/Zay/Thompson/Holmes 

‘18 KB/Coleman/Kerley/Zay

 

-Replace Thompson with Coleman/Kerley

 

’17 Tyrod/Peterman 

‘18 McCarron/Allen (or vice-versa)

 

-Replace Tyrod with AJ or Allen

 

On paper, which offense do you prefer?

 

I think there is a real shot that Croom replaces Logan Thomas in the tight ends

[freddyjj]

16 hours ago, SCBills said:

Projected ‘18:

 

‘17 Dawkins/Incognito/Wood/Ducasse/Mills

’18 Dawkins/Ducasse/Bodine(Groy)/Miller/Mills

 

-Replace Incognito/Wood with Miller/Bodine(Groy)

 

’17 McCoy/Tolbert/Cadet

’18 McCoy/Ivory/Cadet

 

-Replace Tolbert with Ivory

 

’17 DiMarco

’18 DiMarco

 

’17 Clay/O’Leary/Thomas

’18 Clay/O’Leary/Thomas

 

’17 KB/Zay/Thompson/Holmes 

‘18 KB/Coleman/Kerley/Zay

 

-Replace Thompson with Coleman/Kerley

 

’17 Tyrod/Peterman 

‘18 McCarron/Allen (or vice-versa)

 

-Replace Tyrod with AJ or Allen

 

On paper, which offense do you prefer?

 

 

I like the simplicity in comparing personnel.  A couple things jump out:

 

1. The change in OC and the change at QB will determine the real outcome in 2018.  Less predictable and a faster paced passing offense should help rankings and produce more points.  A power run game for 16 weeks also makes more sense given the personnel.
2. At WR in 2017 we did not have KB for most of the year and when he played he was very limited as hurt upon arrival.  Turns out Zay was also dinged up and played hurt all year so those 2 guys should be better in 2018.  Kerley is a solid move the chains target in 2018 where we really had none in 2018.  
3. At O-Line there are 3 major changes.  Ducasse to LG is a huge transition and one that he may not be able to make.  He lacks the quickness that Richie has and is not as powerful either.  Miller needs to be better than 2016 at RG and Groy needs to be the stalwart on the inside to keep pressure out of QBs face.

So in the end I will take the 2018 offense as it should be more diverse and productive.  The QB, WR and OL talent will be less than average in the league and that concerns me.

 

Edited August 6, 2018 by freddyjj

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

 

I like the simplicity in comparing personnel.  A couple things jump out:

 

1. The change in OC and the change at QB will determine the real outcome in 2018.  Less predictable and a faster paced passing offense should help rankings and produce more points.  A power run game for 16 weeks also makes more sense given the personnel.
2. At WR in 2017 we did not have KB for most of the year when he played and he was very limited as hurt upon arrival.  Turns out Zay was also dinged up and played hurt all year so those 2 guys should be better in 2018.  Kerley is a solid move the chains target in 2018 where we really had none in 2018.  
3. At O-Line there are 3 major changes.  Ducasse to LG is a huge transition and one that he may not be able to make.  He lacks the quickness that Richie has and is not as powerful either.

So in the end I will take the 2018 offense as it should be more diverse and productive.  The QB, WR and OL talent will be less than average in the league and that concerns me.

 

I'd agree with the OL.  Ducasse concerns me, as does Bodine potentially beating out Groy (should that happen).

 

I don't necessarily agree with QB.  If we go with AJ, perhaps, I think we'd all be thrilled with him being a middle of the pack starting QB who limits turnovers.  If we go with Allen, he'll have ups and downs but he's truly an unknown. 

 

I think our WR's are interesting.  A lot of potential.  Healthy, contract year KB.  2nd year, healthy Zay.  3rd year, change of scenery Coleman.  Add Kerley to the mix who would probably have been our most consistent WR in '17.   Last year we had a banged up KB and banged up Zay in a Tyrod led-passing attack.

Edited August 6, 2018 by SCBills

[OCinBuffalo]

If any team is capable of running a power running game for 16 weeks, they will, because that almost guarantees a playoff spot. The trouble isn't choosing the scheme, it's having the guys to do it. You have to have the physical, but you also need 5 guys with a collective and individual mean streak. Guys who like to hurt, not injure, other guys. Then, it's difficult to find all 5 guys who can turn that mean streak off when the game is over, and not get into trouble. But still, if you can do it, you'll own the 4th QTR in almost every game.

 

This is doubly true because of today's pass-happy NFL. Defenses have a lot more speed and quickness and less size and strength. If you have the right set of dudes, running power can be devastating, as it was for us in 2015-6. The smallish defenders can only get hit by OLmen so many times before they start to crump.

 

Somehow, Dennison had all the pieces, but decided to throw away the board. 

[Doc Brown]

It's such an unknown. 

 

We don't know who's playing quarterback and if we even have an NFL quality starter at this point. 

Our offense o-line will digress with Wood and Incognito retiring.  The question is how much. 

We have an offensive coordinator who was horrible in his past OC jobs, but had horrible rosters.  Hopefully, being around Belichick and Saban made him more prepared for the job.

The legal situation looms over Shady (who turned 30) and Ivory's production has dropped off significantly the last couple of years.  I expect to see more of Cadet this year.

There isn't one reliable WR on the roster, but if Benjamin stays healthy, Jones has a breakout year, and Coleman is the deep threat we've been missing then this unit could be fine.

 

It should be interesting.

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

TT's legs - sheesh louise!  TT's legs didn't mean jack diddly squat in the 4th quarter when the Bills were down by less than 7 in a potentially winnable game.  TT's legs didn't garner enough points to win more games for the Bills when it counted most.  TT's legs didn't do jack diddly squat in the ONLY playoff game that we squeaked into and certainly didn't squeak in due to TT's legs.

 

Enough already about TT and whatever intangible he supposedly had - yes at times, and they were few, he was exciting.  Exciting doesn't win games.  Exciting causes heartburn and anguish when you realize exciting isn't going to get it done.  Face it - 4th qtr, 2 mins left, you KNEW in your heart of hearts TT was NOT going to get it done.  TT is gone - build a bridge and go over it and become a Browns fan and continue to worship your guy.  Browns fans will rue the day they acquired TT.  Rue.  The.  Day.

 

Except none of what you just said was really relevant to what I was saying.  But keep up your TT freak out, one day the wound will heal for you 

[Kwai San]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Except none of what you just said was really relevant to what I was saying.  But keep up your TT freak out, one day the wound will heal for you 

 

Methinks you need to re-read your post I replied too......my wounds were never there to begin with - it seems the TT followers are the wounded ones.....

[BuffaLoko]

On 8/6/2018 at 12:49 AM, OCinBuffalo said:

Perhaps, but do you agree that this change has 10X the effect of changing out 1 player? 

 

Consider: The year before Dennison we were the premier power blocking run team in the NFL, and probably of the last 10 years. If you can do power, you can own people. We did. We were the #1 rushing team in the league by design, not by default. Then, Dennison comes in last year and changes the entire run concept, for ALL of our run plays(the first 4 games), to zone blocking...because "system".  When Dennison realized his idiocy was gonna cost him his job? Presto, we start running more power plays(last 6 games).

The players we had, both individually and as a group, were not the best fit  for zone. Zone is about getting to a spot first, then using that spot + body position to create holes, thus it emphasizes quickness and flexibility(like wrestling). Power is about being assigned a target, or two, lining up on them, and then: destroy, which emphasizes size and strength(like heavyweight boxing). ALL O lineman need minimums in all 4 characteristics I mentioned to make an NFL squad. It's the emphasis the scheme places on each characteristic, that makes one guy "better" than the next. Thus, a bunch of guys who are above average in all 4, but, are really big and strong(like we had 2 years ago), means you do power: every play you seek and destroy. "Coaching" that ignores their strengths and focuses on what they are only average at, for the sake of a scheme? Folly.

 

Which kind of run concept do the Bills favor today, right now? No one has any idea. Therefore, we can't know if our players today are a better fit than the players last year. The only thing we do know: Dennison is gone and so are his silly notions about forcing players into his system, rather than forcing his system to fit the players(or making a new system entirely).

 

For all we know, the players we have today, right now, fit a zone scheme better than power. See the problem? 

OC Buffalo (is this you? Mr. Dabol?? I am  amazed realizing that ~ 24 hours after  first posted, your take hasn't had more positive reactions... man!  you´ve nailed it! 

[reddogblitz]

On 8/6/2018 at 7:16 AM, RyanC883 said:

 TT was one read and run

 

like this?

 

I can understand why some dislike Hotrod, but you don't need to make stuff up.  If he were a one look and run guy he would have run a lot more and gotten sacked less.  There are plenty of other plays like this. Even some others in the same game.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

like this?

 

I can understand why some dislike Hotrod, but you don't need to make stuff up.  If he were a one look and run guy he would have run a lot more and gotten sacked less.  There are plenty of other plays like this. Even some others in the same game.

 

Congratulations finding the exception to the rule.   I'm not a "TT hater," but TT missed NUMEROUS WIDE-OPEN WR's.   Did you attend any games last year?  In the Saints game there were guys open all over the middle of the field, he never saw them or never threw the ball.  He is a one-read and run guy. He had nowhere to run on that play, so he kept looking in the same spot waiting for Holmes.    He is watching Holmes the entire time, from Holmes route on the right side of the screen to when he streaks left.  A great pass, but a one-read pass.  

[reddogblitz]

16 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Congratulations finding the exception to the rule.   I'm not a "TT hater," but TT missed NUMEROUS WIDE-OPEN WR's.   Did you attend any games last year?  In the Saints game there were guys open all over the middle of the field, he never saw them or never threw the ball.  He is a one-read and run guy. He had nowhere to run on that play, so he kept looking in the same spot waiting for Holmes.    He is watching Holmes the entire time, from Holmes route on the right side of the screen to when he streaks left.  A great pass, but a one-read pass.  

 

Try this one.  Here are 2 back to back non read and run followed by Hotrod taking it in himself.  and for those saying Holmes isn't good, check out that catch on the first play.

 

If/when Allen puts a drive like this together we'll be measuring him for his gold jacket I suspect.

 

 

I can find others if you need to see more. 

 

Again, I understand why people don't like him, but you don't gotta make stuff up.

Edited August 8, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Fadingpain]

Can't answer your question in terms of which we prefer until we know more, much more, about the QBs on the roster.

 

There is an excellent chance our QB play is worse, and maybe even substantially worse, than Tyrod's last year.

 

Then again, Allen could possibly impress and be an improvement.

 

I think Peterman is likely, on average, worse than Tyrod and AJ, on his best day, is about a wash.

So it really comes down to what we have in Allen.  If he is a hit, we'll all prefer the '18 offense; if he busts or is very slow to develop or doesn't even see the field, we'll probably wish we had last year's offense.