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Prisco: Bills to go 3-13 (start 0-8)


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3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I could care less about such predictions, positive or negative.  But I would just ask a couple questions about why so many, including a number of TBD participants, keep thinking a playoff team from last season will for some reason go into the toilet this year:

 

1.  Offense:  predictions are that the offense will be terrible.  But what changes have really been made?

     a.  Taylor for McCarron:  I presume McCarron starts.  And is he really a dramatic drop off at the position?  TT ran well, but at times was a liability in the passing game.  McCarron should get the ball out quicker and do better on the passing end.  So kind of a wash here. This I just don't understand. Taylor for his flaws played 3 seasons in the NFL at a pretty decent level, went 22-20, and was a piece of making the playoffs. Your telling me AJ McCarron who has a total of 5 true starts under his belt is an upgrade over a guy who at least is a true level starter (yes not the franchise)? I'm sorry I just don't buy it especially with the weakness in the WR corp.

    b.  O line:  Groy I presume starts at C, and he did well when he filled in for Wood a couple seasons ago.  RT is still an issue, but Dawkins looked very good at LT, and the G you have the same guys at RG as last year.  Really it's filling in for Richie, so that is a loss to be sure. This I think is more of an unknown more then anything so I agree easy to be pessimistic given no Richie, but I liked Groy.

    c.  WR:  Same cast as last year except for Thompson, and you figure one of the rookies gets that shot.  So is it a stellar group?  No.  Any worse than last year?  No. Not sure how you can say they aren't worse then last year. Thompson was their best WR by the end of the season who is gone, Zay Jones is looney tunes and had more knee issues, and their "major" is an old Jeremy Kerley. Everyone loves talking potential of guys like Proheil or Riley, but everyone thinks their prospects are gold when 95% of the time is poop.

    d.  Changes OC's to a guy in Daboll with experience in two big time college and pro programs. Unknown but I don't disagree Dabol could be better.

  

    So overall the offense wasn't great last year, probably won't be great this year, but so much worse it accounts for such a dramatic fall off in results? No. Your acting like the Bills offense was some juggernaut last year. They got by with a good run game and a QB who could take care of the ball enough while making enough plays. You now don't have the QB, a worse WR corp, and unknowns at both line and coach. Even if those come through and still replicates last year that isn't some massive improvement to a team ranked 29th in total yards. If anything they will turn the ball over with more of a thrower at QB. It's not that I see a dropoff I don't see the increase on a 29th unit that shouldn't rely on the defense getting timely turnovers and plays that statistically do not replicate year to year.

 

 

So what exactly explains it, because I can't find the glaring reason why a playoff team should drop six games down from last year to this. They were 6-2 in one score games, even at 4-4 they are a 7-9 team. Yes they deserve credit for what they did last year but it also is unsustainable. On paper if the offense is 29th again it would take an effort worthy of the 2014 Bills defense for this team to be 9-7. Hate on it if you want, but the offense outside of Allen being Marino 2.0 is a hole this defense isn't going to be able to fix this season meaning many long frustrating games with a good-great defensive effort that leaves everyone frustrated when they lose 17-10.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I'll tell you another funny story.

 

A few weeks before the draft, on some boring day with no NFL news to speak of, some "expert" said the hot rumor was that the Cleveland Browns were going to take a guy named Josh Allen #1 overall....

 

The thread quickly lit up with "Of course they are, they are the Browns" jokes.

 

A few weeks later, we drafted Josh Allen, and then it suddenly became a wise choice.

 

:lol:

To me the jury is still out on the staff and GM - they've made a lot of bold moves getting rid of some pretty talented players.  Was I impressed by last year?  In a lot of ways I was, because they made the playoffs.  I can't dispute that pretty damn good accomplishment considering the OC and OL coach being pretty bad at their jobs.   I think people think Tyrod is disposable, because he's not a superstar caliber QB and he's not the type of guy that is going to just light it up in the passing game.  I think we are going to see just how good steady and unspectacular with an ability to make a couple of plays in the running game to extend drives is compared to plain old backup caliber QB play with very limited ability to run.  I honestly don't know how some people think someone like McCarron or Peterman can be a wash with Tyrod.   Tyrod didn't really turn the ball over and he made enough plays in many games to help the Bills stay ahead or stay in games.  Believe me I know the Bills could do better at QB than Tyrod, but at this point they are not better at QB, they are worse.  Maybe Allen develops into a guy that can play pretty well by next year, but hoping for McCarron or Peterman to do as well or better than Tyrod is a longshot.  And Allen is no sure thing, either.  I didn't like him as the QB pick, but now I'm hoping he proves himself to be a superstar.

 

Most likely we are going to see a lot more turnovers out of the QB position, a lot more stalled drives, very few broken plays turned into first downs - but hey we will have guys that can deliver an accurate timing pass a little more often = wash!!!!  I thought that they should've held on to Tyrod until the Bills had a chance to assess their QB of the future and let him compete with a guy that was a very professional QB in terms of work ethic and leadership.  To me QBs are like jobs, if you have a decent one you don't abandon it until you are sure you have a better offer available.  You don't quit a good job to go to a start up that may or may not get off the ground, and drive for Uber to pay the Bills until it does. 

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19 minutes ago, Estelle Getty said:

I hope not.  Prisco is a bit of a cynic in regards to the Bills, butsadly he is uaually right on the $$$ with our beloved team.  He is one of the prognosticators that I actually put some stock into.    

 

I have to look it up to be sure but I think Prisco never picks the Bills to win more than 4 games. I mean never. That's not what I call spot-on, unless you mean spot-on-always-low.

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7 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Cool.

 

I love predictions. They’re quite useful. Like mock drafts and meteorologists.

 

Who else are you going to consult to find out when the next meteor will strike?

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2 hours ago, teef said:

you...you are good!  i get what you did there!  you're really not offended, but you posted that you were to show people how much you don't care.  good show my man!  

 

king among men.

 

Tell us again how many games they will win but it might not be correct.  

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1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

I agree that this season in particular means nothing as long as it ends with Allen consistently performing in a manner which suggests he has a strong chance to become a franchise QB, even if he makes a lot of rookie mistakes along the way. 

 

If he looks like EJ Manuel Part II, we will not only have a horrible record this year but we will also be right back to where we were, pre-Tyrod.  

 

And that's not a good place to be. 

 

 

 

 

 

TBH, I'm not so sure we see Allen much, if at all this year. And I really don't have a preference one way or the other. I'll leave that for the coaches to determine.

 

McCarron may not have a great year, but a poor record may not be a direct reflection or result of his play either, so benching him in favor of seeing what the rookie can do may not be reasonable in that situation. Of course, if the Bills are eliminated from the post-season earlier or are obviously "out of it", then I could see them giving him a shot. But even then, I'm still not sure that would be the best thing for him. 

 

My point about the arrow pointing up wasn't necessarily based on Allen alone, but based more on the team as a whole, specifically the defense. It would be good and great to see glimpses from him, but I'm honestly not sure what to expect from him, short term, and especially with a poor supporting cast.

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I think the sports writers would just be better off doing things like grouping the teams based on their playoff and championship potential.  The actual record predictions are just silly like Howard and Jeremy going through the schedule every week following a win or loss.

 

 

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4 hours ago, aristocrat said:

that start is no joke.  i could very well see us 0-8 if our offense is bad.  but if they can move the ball it's more like 3-5.  

 

So, if they can move the ball, 3-5, huh?

 

You must not think very highly of our defense.

 

Either that or you just don’t know what you are talking about at all.

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4 hours ago, teef said:

hasn't he made a prediction like this a number of times?  he's at least done it once in the last 2-3 years.  i'm not saying the bills are going to be world beaters, but this team is better than 2-4 wins.  

 

...nobody told him Rex is gone...............

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16 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Tell us again how many games they will win but it might not be correct.  

what?  you're the message board version of a mumbler.  start making some sense.

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14 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

So, if they can move the ball, 3-5, huh?

 

You must not think very highly of our defense.

 

Either that or you just don’t know what you are talking about at all.

 

No i just don’t think we can beat the Vikings, packers, colts on the road, Texans or pats.  Maybe the colts but I think they are going to be pretty good but maybe that could be a win. 

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