What should the Bills expect from the 2017 draft class?

[HOUSE]

CAPACCIO: After strong rookie campaigns, what should the Bills expect from the 2017 draft class?

The class had several players make big contributions last season

Sal Capaccio

July 17, 2018 - 11:43 pm

Photo: Rich Barnes - USA TODAY Sports

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The Buffalo Bills' 2017 NFL Draft class had quite the rookie season as a group. From All-Rookie honors to one of the worst starting debuts in NFL history, the group had a little bit of everything along the way.

So, what does 2018 hold for these sophomores? Here’s a rundown of the group and what may be reasonable to expect from them:

Round 1 - Tre’Davious White - Cornerback (LSU)

After the Bills moved down 17 spots and took White with the No. 27 overall pick, the LSU product had one of the best rookie campaigns in the league.

It started with him winning AFC Defensive Rookie of the Month honors in September and ended with him finishing second in AP Rookie of the Year voting and with an appearance on every All-Rookie team there is.

Going into Year 2, White will be counted on and expected to be the team’s No. 1 CB in most situations, and that’s even with two-time Pro Bowler Vontae Davis on the other side of him. He has every opportunity to build on his incredible rookie season, become a Pro Bowl player, and be recognized as one of the best in the league at his position.


Round 2 - Zay Jones - Wide Receiver (East Carolina)

There are a lot more questions than answers surrounding Jones right now.

His rookie season started with struggles catching the ball, but as the season went on he became much more of a reliable target in the passing game, finishing with 27 catches for 316 yards and two touchdowns.

Jones played with a hurt labrum for most of the last half of the season which required surgery. Then he was arrested for vandalism after a bizarre incident in a downtown Los Angeles apartment complex. However, the charges were eventually dropped. Then in May, head coach Sean McDermott announced Jones would miss all of OTAs and minicamp after undergoing knee surgery. McDermott said there was no reason to believe Jones’ 2018 season is in jeopardy.

That may be true as far as his health, but as he heads into his sophomore season, Jones certainly can’t be relied upon to be a solid contributor until he proves it on and off the field.

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/capaccio-after-strong-rookie-campaigns-what-should-bills-expect-2017-draft-class

[Kirby Jackson]

It’s funny how these things go sometimes. If you flipped Milano and Zay’s draft position people would feel great about the draft. They would say, “we got a Pro Bowl CB, a starting LT and a playmaking LB all before the end of the 2nd round.” Zay would have been considered a decent contributor as a 5th. Drafts are often viewed based on our expectations prior. If you look at the results the Bills got a lot of contributions out of the class just not necessarily from the guys that they expected.

[Luxy312]

I expect White and Dawkins to be starters going forward absent injury.  I think that White was as good as any defensive rookie last season.  Lots of pressure, but no reason he can't succeed.  Dawkins surprised the heck out of me.  I'll be very interested to see what he can do.  I don't believe that Richie was really that big of a crutch last season.  Milano had some decent starts and if he can stay healthy could remain a starter as well.  The rest is gravy if it works out and not really a loss if it doesn't.  Zay Jones strange behavior worries me more than his injury.  Vallejo is really just a rotational player.  He's a guy you have to have on a 55 man roster, but isn't going to make or break you on defense.  If you took any draft class in recent history and said that a team would have 2-3 starters, I think that most fans would say that was a good draft.  Some would haggle over WHERE a player was drafted, but I think that's a wasted mental exercise.

[Soda Popinski]

4 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

I expect White and Dawkins to be starters going forward absent injury.  I think that White was as good as any defensive rookie last season.  Lots of pressure, but no reason he can't succeed.  Dawkins surprised the heck out of me.  I'll be very interested to see what he can do.  I don't believe that Richie was really that big of a crutch last season.  Milano had some decent starts and if he can stay healthy could remain a starter as well.  The rest is gravy if it works out and not really a loss if it doesn't.  Zay Jones strange behavior worries me more than his injury.  Vallejo is really just a rotational player.  He's a guy you have to have on a 55 man roster, but isn't going to make or break you on defense.  If you took any draft class in recent history and said that a team would have 2-3 starters, I think that most fans would say that was a good draft.  Some would haggle over WHERE a player was drafted, but I think that's a wasted mental exercise.

I agree about Dawkins, Incognito maybe helped with protections and audibles, but Dawkins still had to go out and block his man Usually the best edge rusher on the other team.  Working with Hughes should only make him better in camp as well.   Hopefully we ditch the ZBS that didn't work last year and go with power run, but regardless Dawkins was drafted because he's athletic and has quick feet.   Hopefully we found a 10 year starting LT (again).   

 

Jones I expect to make the most significant jump of all the rookies.   I expect him to be fully committed to his craft and go out there and justify the draft pick.   If he doesn't, we've got some young guys who will kill for playing time in Proehl/Foster/McCloud.   WR will be interesting to watch during camp. 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s funny how these things go sometimes. If you flipped Milano and Zay’s draft position people would feel great about the draft. They would say, “we got a Pro Bowl CB, a starting LT and a playmaking LB all before the end of the 2nd round.” Zay would have been considered a decent contributor as a 5th. Drafts are often viewed based on our expectations prior. If you look at the results the Bills got a lot of contributions out of the class just not necessarily from the guys that they expected.

 

For some reason, I have confidence in Zay.  I think he just could not get out of his mental rut and it just killed him last year.

I think he has a much better year coming up.  

 

I can see a 60 catch, 800 yard and 5 TD season for him.

[hondo in seattle]

10 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

I agree about Dawkins, Incognito maybe helped with protections and audibles, but Dawkins still had to go out and block his man Usually the best edge rusher on the other team.  Working with Hughes should only make him better in camp as well.   Hopefully we ditch the ZBS that didn't work last year and go with power run, but regardless Dawkins was drafted because he's athletic and has quick feet.   Hopefully we found a 10 year starting LT (again).   

 

Jones I expect to make the most significant jump of all the rookies.   I expect him to be fully committed to his craft and go out there and justify the draft pick.   If he doesn't, we've got some young guys who will kill for playing time in Proehl/Foster/McCloud.   WR will be interesting to watch during camp. 

 

What do you expect that?

 

"The predictor of future performance is past performance."

 

 

[Soda Popinski]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

What do you expect that?

 

"The predictor of future performance is past performance."

 

 

Marv Levy used to say he always expected his 2nd year players to make the most strides because they have spent a year in the NFL and are finally getting their lives in order and can focus on football.   

 

WRs traditionally take 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL it's a difficult transition.    Zay has the support group around him to keep him focused and the physical talent to be successful.  His issues were all mental his rookie year he tried to do too much.  He needs to continue to work but relax and let the game come to him.  He does that he'll be fine. 

[HOUSE]

Jay Jones will be a monster this season. One of the best in the league. People are underestimating how tough he is to cover.

A new QB can make a ton of difference

People expect to much from a rookie and that goes for Nathan Petermen too!

Edited July 18, 2018 by THE SLAMMER

[GunnerBill]

By the end of this year I expect:

 

Tre White - to be viewed as a bona fide top 10 NFL corner. I still think he might go a little under the radar as I expect his fellow sophmore Marshon Lattimore to continue to grab the headlines but they are both going to be very good for a very long time. That corner class was legit. 

 

Dion Dawkins - to be established as the best player on the Bills offensive line. I am not expecting miracles from him though. I think he was probably just below middle of the pack for a starting left tackle in 2017 and I would pitch him somewhere similar again. His personal improvement is going to be offset by him being overwhelmed by a lack of support inside at times I suspect. 

 

Matt Milano - to be seen as an every down starter at linebacker rather than a useful rotational piece who can play in nickel and dime. Playing next to a monster like Edmunds is going to free Milano up to play in space and that is his strength. 

 

Zay Jones - to be no higher than 4th on the depth chart and to be talked about as a potential off season cut. I was high on Zay coming out but predicting how a kid copes mentally with the jump from a small school college programme to being a professional where jobs are on the line every down is always an inexact science. I did not see any evidence last year that suggested he had it between the ears. 

 

Nathan Peterman - to fail to build on what he showed in shorts and to perform in pre-season in such a way that ensures even if he sticks in 2018 he will not to be on an NFL roster in 2019. He is just not an NFL talent. 

 

Tanner Vallejo - to be a core special teams player if he can stay healthy. 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

For some reason, I have confidence in Zay.  I think he just could not get out of his mental rut and it just killed him last year.

I think he has a much better year coming up.  

 

I can see a 60 catch, 800 yard and 5 TD season for him.

I am in the same boat. He was absolutely atrocious last year. Any available metric supports that but I’m just not ready to write him off. The irony is part of the reason that I am not ready to write off Zay is because I was a big fan going into the draft. He looked like a star in the Senior Bowl and I bought in. I was thrilled when they got him. A season like you said is certainly not out of the question. In hindsight though, Ju-Ju would have been a better option (although I didn’t necessarily believe that at the time).

[John from Riverside]

Of the guys I expect the most improvement?  Zay Jones

 

Because he needs to improve so much to justify the pick and the other guys are already solid to very good

[Luxy312]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Of the guys I expect the most improvement?  Zay Jones

 

Because he needs to improve so much to justify the pick and the other guys are already solid to very good

 

Sadly, he reminds me so much of James Hardy.  I don't know if you remember him, but a 2nd round pick as well with size.  Supposed to be "the man".  Flamed out in 2 years.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Luxy312 said:

 

Sadly, he reminds me so much of James Hardy.  I don't know if you remember him, but a 2nd round pick as well with size.  Supposed to be "the man".  Flamed out in 2 years.

I am hoping that is not the case

 

I am curious....besides being a big kid and a 2nd round pick.....why do you compare them....

 

Zay Jones was a pass catching monster in college.....Hardy was not.

[Luxy312]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

I am hoping that is not the case

 

I am curious....besides being a big kid and a 2nd round pick.....why do you compare them....

 

Zay Jones was a pass catching monster in college.....Hardy was not.

 

Expectations.  Hardy pretty much was the offense for Indiana, but did have to play against other teams in the Big Ten.  3 years 191 receptions for 2,740 and 36 TD's was still a lot.  Jones 4 years 399 receptions for 4,279 is a lot of receptions, but with only 23 TD's.  When you get right down to brass tacks, it comes down to what the Bills expect to get out of the players.  Go back to 2008 and the Bills had Lee Evans and pretty much nothing else.  They expected Hardy to come in and produce as a legitimate #2.  Last year, the Bills drafted Zay Jones and expected him to come in and produce as a legitimate #2 to Benjamin.  To reiterate what a lot would say, his college statistics are pretty irrelevant at this point.  Comes down to expectations.  I wouldn't compare him to Robert Parrish, Robert Woods, or Peerless Price, who were clearly drafted to be a different type of receiver.  Compare him to Josh Reed if you want to, but he never really panned out as anything but a serviceable #3.

[CamDMC]

32 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

Robert Parrish

Roscoe Parrish. Robert was a Celtic.

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

By the end of this year I expect:

 

Tre White - to be viewed as a bona fide top 10 NFL corner. I still think he might go a little under the radar as I expect his fellow sophmore Marshon Lattimore to continue to grab the headlines but they are both going to be very good for a very long time. That corner class was legit. 

 

Dion Dawkins - to be established as the best player on the Bills offensive line. I am not expecting miracles from him though. I think he was probably just below middle of the pack for a starting left tackle in 2017 and I would pitch him somewhere similar again. His personal improvement is going to be offset by him being overwhelmed by a lack of support inside at times I suspect. 

 

Matt Milano - to be seen as an every down starter at linebacker rather than a useful rotational piece who can play in nickel and dime. Playing next to a monster like Edmunds is going to free Milano up to play in space and that is his strength. 

 

Zay Jones - to be no higher than 4th on the depth chart and to be talked about as a potential off season cut. I was high on Zay coming out but predicting how a kid copes mentally with the jump from a small school college programme to being a professional where jobs are on the line every down is always an inexact science. I did not see any evidence last year that suggested he had it between the ears. 

 

Nathan Peterman - to fail to build on what he showed in shorts and to perform in pre-season in such a way that ensures even if he sticks in 2018 he will not to be on an NFL roster in 2019. He is just not an NFL talent. 

 

Tanner Vallejo - to be a core special teams player if he can stay healthy. 

 

 

When you look at it that way that was a crackerjack of a draft class for the bills

 

I wonder how this year's is gonna end up stacking up.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

When you look at it that way that was a crackerjack of a draft class for the bills

 

I wonder how this year's is gonna end up stacking up.

 

I think those first three I listed are all going to be important pieces here for a number of years. If Zay can turn it around then I think you are talking a really excellent draft class. 

[Capco]

7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

For some reason, I have confidence in Zay.  I think he just could not get out of his mental rut and it just killed him last year.

I think he has a much better year coming up.  

 

I can see a 60 catch, 800 yard and 5 TD season for him.

 

This is exactly how I feel.  

 

It's just a hunch, but I don't see Zay being stopped from getting better.  The kid has too much talent and it sounds like his work ethic isn't bad either.  

[Luxy312]

1 hour ago, CamDMC said:

Roscoe Parrish. Robert was a Celtic.

My brain got in the way of my fingers.  LOL.

[Mr. WEO]

3 day 1 starters.  1 of them right of the bus.