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BurpleBull

Beane's Counterbalance to Missing on Josh Allen: Great Trades, Drafting, and Free Agent Pickups.

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32 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

He should be fired if Rosen is good and Allen is not. 

And continue the revolving door of coaches and GM's.  Good plan.

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2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

And continue the revolving door of coaches and GM's.  Good plan.

 

Would you argue the cause. Justified. Wouldn’t trust him to take another swing. 

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4 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

 

Would you argue the cause. Justified. Wouldn’t trust him to take another swing. 

 

Believe it or not, the draft isn't a science.  The best you can do is make an educated guess as to whether someone is going to pan out.  To stake his career on ONE draft pick is absolutely ridiculous.  Additionally, he wheeled and dealed until we had a high enough pick to take a shot without completely mortgaging the future. 

 

And as for the "wouldn't trust him to take another swing" comment:  Based on their success last year through the draft, I would argue that (thus far) he has a great track record of success in the draft.  Yes, it's just one year.  And yes, they were working with the information provided to them from Whaley's scouts.  But his personnel moves, his one draft, and his ability to wheel and deal should tell you that he knows what he is doing.  Why wouldn't you want him to take another shot?

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Posted (edited)

Assuming we keep on the current trajectory, I agree with the title of this thread, but not the path it has taken. Allen vs Rosen is not the big picture question. QB is hit or miss. Try again if you must and everything else is doing well....or making progress at least.

 

Teams miss on QB’s every year. It doesn’t mean you want to start all over with new coaches, schemes and FO’s. That’s the treadmill to nowhere we’ve been on far too long! 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean just because the guy’s a Bill and we want him to be great doesn’t mean we have to make up false narratives.  

 

 

Which is what many on this board seems to be doing. Not trying to be negative, I just see the glass 56% full.

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3 hours ago, stuvian said:

I don't feel like we overpayed for Allen. Definitely not an RG3 deal

But we haven't seen Allen play in the NFL yet,not sure how you came to that conclusion.

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I loved the Allen pick.  But if he is a bust Beane will be gone after the 2019 season.  That is just the way it is.  

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Didn't you see draft day?  It's always the GM in control.

 

*Sarcasm off*

 

I don't care who wanted him or didn't.  As long as both side were in agreement with the decision.  

 

This is the only way to look at it.  The Bills needed to address the QB position and they got who they though was the best guy, at least in the draft spot that was attainable.  As discussed ad nauseam last April, it's a crap shoot...no guarantees any of the top 4 QBs taken work out.  If Allen does not work out, we probably revisit this past April in another three years or so, unfortunately.  If this does happen, I don't think it would necessarily reflect poorly on Beane and/or McDermott and I hope they're around to try again.

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5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

John, you’re awesome but have you ever not liked a Bills’ personnel move? 😀

 

and I agree that I’m happy that took a qb.  But I definitely question the qb they took.  They took the biggest risk qb.  If he doesn’t work out, they will look like giant morons because there was a ton of evidence that he will struggle.  And I’ve never wanted to be more wrong about anything.  

 

I trust McDermott 100% on defense.  However so far, he has been questionable at best at his offensive player evaluations.

 

Who were the lower risk QB's they should have taken?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

I loved the Allen pick.  But if he is a bust Beane will be gone after the 2019 season.  That is just the way it is.  

I would think that in the hopefully unlikely chance that Allen is a bust, Beane would understand it quickly enough to take another swing at getting a QB.  Not double down like Whaley did, trading away way too much in hopes that he can turn around a bad QB pick like EJ was.  There were some QBs available the year after EJ was drafted like Carr, Garoppolo & Bridgewater. If Whaley had shown any ability to see how bad EJ was after a year here, he could have corrected Nix's error.  If Allen fails & Beane sees it quickly enough, he gets a 2nd shot.  To me that means if Allen isn't showing enough, Beane would be wise to spend a 1st or 2nd on another QB in next year's draft.  Unconventional going after a QB a year after trading up & drafting one, sure, but better to hedge the bet than put all your eggs in the Allen basket if he hasn't shown enough to be entrenched as the 2019 starter.  It's not like teams haven't hedged on the franchise QB bet before.  Many years ago the Jets had 2 rookie QBs in camp, Joe Namath & Heisman winner John Huarte.  More recently in 1989 the Cowboys drafted Troy Aikman #1 overall, then spent a #1 in the supplemental draft on Steve Walsh.  Eventually they recouped the #1 by trading Walsh to the Saints when Aikman proved to be the franchise QB they were looking for.  Other hedges have included Washington trading a ton to St.Louis for RGIII at pick #2 overall, then taking Cousins in the 4th round.  The Redskins also hedged when they drafted Heath Schuler & Gus Frerrotte in the same draft.  In both cases the #1 pick bombed & the other guy ended up starting. 

Edited by Albany,n.y.
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So to review:

 

In this thread, Bills fans have applauded the GM for his QB selection, decided it may not be the right choice, but determined he should remain the GM even if it was not.

 

:lol:

 

:thumbdown:

 

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4 hours ago, The_Dude said:

 

Would you argue the cause. Justified. Wouldn’t trust him to take another swing. 

Why?

 

This guy was considered by some to be the overall pick in the draft.....why should we fault Beane if he doesnt work out.....

 

AND

 

He did it with house money.....not losing future 1st round draft picks

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2 hours ago, Misterbluesky said:

But we haven't seen Allen play in the NFL yet,not sure how you came to that conclusion.

Obviously he was talking about what we had to give up vs what the Redskins gave up.  

 

To move up to 7 he Bills gave up pick 12 (which includes 1st moving up by trading Glenn) and picks 53 & 56 (which was for letting the Rams have Watkins for a year & the Bills got the pick & Gaines for a year). 

Meanwhile to move up to 2, the Redskins gave up 6, pick 39 in 2012, their 1st in 2013 (22nd) and their 1st in 2014 (#2 overall) 

 

Just the fact that the Bills didn't give up any other #1s except pick 12 proves it was a much safer trade than what Washington did.  It's not even close, they gave up 3 #1s, one of which turned out to be the 2nd pick of the draft (which the Rams wasted on a bust, Greg Robinson).  

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Barring an elite defense and/or Peterman/McCarron becoming the next Kirk Cousins, you can probably say goodbye to Beane and McDermott if Allen is a bust.  It's just the way the NFL works.

37 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

So to review:

 

In this thread, Bills fans have applauded the GM for his QB selection, decided it may not be the right choice, but determined he should remain the GM even if it was not.

 

:lol:

 

:thumbdown:

 

That thought crossed my mind about 30 seconds after the Allen pick when I was frantically going through the 2019 NFL QB draft prospects.

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Posted (edited)

Hit or miss on Allen, it's WAY WAY WAY too early to say.

 

So far, I am a major fan, but we simply don't have enough info yet.

Edited by Thurman#1

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4 hours ago, berg1029 said:

 

Believe it or not, the draft isn't a science.  The best you can do is make an educated guess as to whether someone is going to pan out.  To stake his career on ONE draft pick is absolutely ridiculous.  Additionally, he wheeled and dealed until we had a high enough pick to take a shot without completely mortgaging the future. 

 

And as for the "wouldn't trust him to take another swing" comment:  Based on their success last year through the draft, I would argue that (thus far) he has a great track record of success in the draft.  Yes, it's just one year.  And yes, they were working with the information provided to them from Whaley's scouts.  But his personnel moves, his one draft, and his ability to wheel and deal should tell you that he knows what he is doing.  Why wouldn't you want him to take another shot?

 

 

I disagree 1000%. Staking your career on ONE draft pick can easily be the best and smartest move at the time. It might well have been the correct move this year.

 

Assuming, for example, that Darnold and Mayfield work out and Allen and Rosen don't, and that Beane had the QBs rated, say Darnold - Mayfield - major dropoff - Allen - Rosen  ... spending all our draft capital for this year and maybe some from next as well in a move up for Darnold or Mayfield would have been the smart play. It would have left us without a potential terrific MLB but with a great QB. That's a lot better than without a potential franchise QB but with a great MLB.

 

We'll see. I still have plenty of hope for Allen after a year or so of development. 

 

 

38 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Obviously he was talking about what we had to give up vs what the Redskins gave up.  

 

To move up to 7 he Bills gave up pick 12 (which includes 1st moving up by trading Glenn) and picks 53 & 56 (which was for letting the Rams have Watkins for a year & the Bills got the pick & Gaines for a year). 

Meanwhile to move up to 2, the Redskins gave up 6, pick 39 in 2012, their 1st in 2013 (22nd) and their 1st in 2014 (#2 overall) 

 

Just the fact that the Bills didn't give up any other #1s except pick 12 proves it was a much safer trade than what Washington did.  It's not even close, they gave up 3 #1s, one of which turned out to be the 2nd pick of the draft (which the Rams wasted on a bust, Greg Robinson).  

 

 

Safer, yeah. But safer but unsuccessful means squat. This was the year to get an excellent QB. Not just some QB. 

 

And maybe he did. But if he didn't, it will look bad in retrospect.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

I loved the Allen pick.  But if he is a bust Beane will be gone after the 2019 season.  That is just the way it is.  

 

 

Except not.

 

Chances of Beane being gone after the 2019 season are probably around 10 - 20% max. Two years is not going to be enough to know about Allen. After two years as a guy who was always seen as developmental, he's likely to still be having problems even if he eventually works out very well indeed. Most people before the draft said he was going to need a couple of years of development. 2021? Yeah, if Allen's not successful by then and they haven't lucked into someone else ... fair enough, having picked a bust high in the first drastically raises your chances of ending up as maybe director of East Coast scouting on some other team.

 

But two years after picking Kyle Boller in the first in 2003 - he became GM in 2002 - Ozzie Newsome wasn't gone, was he?

 

Two years after picking Byron Leftwich at #7 (where have I heard that number before?) James Harris wasn't in the unemployment line. Took five years. And plenty more examples where those came from.

Edited by Thurman#1
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The reality of the NFL is that it is quarterback selections above all else that determine the success or failure of General Managers. That said it isn't the only criteria on which Brandon Beane should be assessed. 

 

He is currently midway through a pretty major roster rebuild. If in two or three years the conclusion is that Allen is a bust (and especially if Rosen is a star) then Beane's seat will be warm. What can save him is having the rest of the roster in a place where you feel like the Bills are only a Quarterback away from being true contenders. He might have found his left tackle and #1 corner last year, one hopes he found his stud MLB this year. He will need to have filled in a couple of the other key positions (pass rusher, #1 receiver, long term center) equally impressively to survive an Allen bust. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

John, you’re awesome but have you ever not liked a Bills’ personnel move? 😀

 

and I agree that I’m happy that took a qb.  But I definitely question the qb they took.  They took the biggest risk qb.  If he doesn’t work out, they will look like giant morons because there was a ton of evidence that he will struggle.  And I’ve never wanted to be more wrong about anything.  

 

I trust McDermott 100% on defense.  However so far, he has been questionable at best at his offensive player evaluations.

 

Not sure how u can question McDermott evaluation on Offense. He didn’t get the guy he wanted to manage the O in his first year and had to settle for his second option. This didn’t work out so he moved onto the guy he ultimately wanted immediately as the year ended. Moving on from Watkins was smart cause they were never going to retain him so getting something instead of nothing was a win win. I wish they could of retained one of three initial wrs but that will work out in the end. Moving on from cordy was writing on the wall and getting a high round first is a genius. Same can be said about Tyrod who was not the qb they wanted to build around. I think Daboll will work wonders once he has his players in place. He also will actually be a great coach and make the best out of what he has this year watch out next year!!!! BTW noway do I draft Mayfield he has the biggest attitude (bad attitude) BTW no way would he of been fit in buffalo’s culture ), Darnold no thanks, Rosen bad attitude , health concerns , slim frame, immobile and noway would he of fit into the culture in Buffalo. I think they got the best guy for what they envisioned as a fit in there culture and talent wise. U take a look at the upcoming QB class? The Bills got an actual QB that can be molded into a franchise guy no way can u say that about the guys coming out in 2019 :)

Edited by mschifano

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4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Why?

 

This guy was considered by some to be the overall pick in the draft.....why should we fault Beane if he doesnt work out.....

 

AND

 

He did it with house money.....not losing future 1st round draft picks

 

The revisionist history around here. 

8 hours ago, berg1029 said:

 

Believe it or not, the draft isn't a science.  The best you can do is make an educated guess as to whether someone is going to pan out.  To stake his career on ONE draft pick is absolutely ridiculous.  Additionally, he wheeled and dealed until we had a high enough pick to take a shot without completely mortgaging the future. 

 

And as for the "wouldn't trust him to take another swing" comment:  Based on their success last year through the draft, I would argue that (thus far) he has a great track record of success in the draft.  Yes, it's just one year.  And yes, they were working with the information provided to them from Whaley's scouts.  But his personnel moves, his one draft, and his ability to wheel and deal should tell you that he knows what he is doing.  Why wouldn't you want him to take another shot?

 

Talk yourself into whatever you wanna talk yourself into man. 

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10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean just because the guy’s a Bill and we want him to be great doesn’t mean we have to make up false narratives.  

 

 

 

You mean, like the narrative that there is "a ton of evidence" Allen will be a bust?

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2 hours ago, mschifano said:

 

Not sure how u can question McDermott evaluation on Offense. He didn’t get the guy he wanted to manage the O in his first year and had to settle for his second option. This didn’t work out so he moved onto the guy he ultimately wanted immediately as the year ended. Moving on from Watkins was smart cause they were never going to retain him so getting something instead of nothing was a win win. I wish they could of retained one of three initial wrs but that will work out in the end. Moving on from cordy was writing on the wall and getting a high round first is a genius. Same can be said about Tyrod who was not the qb they wanted to build around. I think Daboll will work wonders once he has his players in place. He also will actually be a great coach and make the best out of what he has this year watch out next year!!!! BTW noway do I draft Mayfield he has the biggest attitude (bad attitude) BTW no way would he of been fit in buffalo’s culture ), Darnold no thanks, Rosen bad attitude , health concerns , slim frame, immobile and noway would he of fit into the culture in Buffalo. I think they got the best guy for what they envisioned as a fit in there culture and talent wise. U take a look at the upcoming QB class? The Bills got an actual QB that can be molded into a franchise guy no way can u say that about the guys coming out in 2019 :)

 

Double helping of Kool Aid?

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11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agreed but if Mahomes is a stud and Allen isn’t, it wasn’t worth it.  

 

I understand your point: a true franchise QB trumps everything else and that's how you evaluate your talent (per se). But, IMHO, without Tre White the Bills don't end the drought curse. So, while I'm not satisfied just making the playoffs every year, getting that damn monkey off our backs was such a momentous relief, I still have a hard time believing it. 

 

So, if Allen doesn't prove out to be worth the pick, I'll be disappointed but to the OP's original point, I'm not running him out of town with pitchforks and torches either. To me, if the Bills continue to improve (and yes,  we can see / measure improvement outside of the QB - see Bills, 2017) then I think Beane can stay to pick the next QB if somehow none of the guys they have work. Even if it's Peterman (which I doubt) rises to the top and keeps his spot, then I say it's still a success. 

 

Watkins would have walked in FA anyway, so getting a 2nd in return for him was good. Glenn I really wanted the Bills to keep to slide either him or Dawkins to RT, but I get the economics of it as well and the sell-out need to get closer to the top 10, so that was a solid strategic move IMHO as well. Time will tell, but I do truly think this FO and Coaching staff have the goods to deliver a Lombardi (hopefully several!) and I'm tired of all the turnover. So, given what they've accomplished in a short time, I'm willing to give them at least 5 years to demonstrate they can build a perennial winner - presuming they don't go 2-14 each of the next 4 years, of course. 

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I’m not so sure... 

 

if Allen Sucks and Rosen is great, the Bills whiffed on what everyone else knew... front office needs to be accountable 

 

if Allen is great, and Better than Rosen, the bills were smarter than everyone else and they get all the credit 

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12 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

Were any of the players you guys were enamored with, minus Harrison Phillips, still available from picks 53 to 96?

 

Courtland Sutton (40th)

Harold Landry (41st)

 

Connor Williams (50th)

Anthony Miller (51st)

 

 

None of mine were.

 

 

This is why I don't stress over what was given up to move up in the 1st rd; in my opinion Brandon Beane didn't break the bank.

 

The Bills surrendered Sammy Watkins, Cordy Glenn, the 12th overall pick, 53rd, and the 56th for the chance to grab Josh Allen 7th overall.

 

Far worse on paper than in actuality when you consider that Sammy Watkins was somewhat overrated, prone to injury, probably being paid a lot more than his actual football value and had his potential replacement drafted in the form of Zay Jones; Cordy Glenn was beginning to enter into the same territory as Watkins, despite being the more valuable of the two and the Bills also had his replacement on deck with Dion Dawkins.

 

Both replacements lessening the sting of both departures.

 

Beane is all about getting great value, players who perform, he's all about getting more bang for the buck.

 

 

So it's easier to understand why he would have taken Josh Allen over Josh Rosen despite the glaring areas of concern that stuck out, such as his accuracy, decision-making, and underwhelming stats versus small-school competition. 

 

 

Selecting Josh Rosen, an oft-injured college player, with what some might describe as personality flaws, would have gone against what seems to be Beane's philosophy for building a winner.

 

Josh Allen: durable, tough, athletic, smart, locker room guy, enthusiastic, coachable, powerful arm.

 

He was easily the safer investment between himself and Josh Rosen.

 

Which leads me to disagree with this notion, that Brandon Beane would be run out of town, should Josh Allen fail to materialize into what he, Sean McDermott, and Brian Daboll envision him becoming.

 

 

The Bills' roster is pretty set all around with a few areas that could use upgrades here and there and the Bills loss no future picks in acquiring Josh Allen; the present looks pretty good with things primed to only get better.

 

 

Plenty good would still be intact to see the Bills through and pressing forward should Allen fail to launch, so I have full faith that the Bills organization, the Pegulas---knowing a good thing when they see it---would simply move on from Allen versus cutting ties with Brandon Beane and breaking up the solid working relationship he's displayed with Sean McDermott---as some suggest would be the rightful outcome.

 

 

So here's to Allen panning out, but if he doesn't, it'll be good knowing the right guys are in place to right the ship, with a surer thing the next time around.

 

 

 

 

But let's crucify Doug Whaley again.

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