Beane's Counterbalance to Missing on Josh Allen: Great Trades, Drafting, and Free Agent Pickups.

[BurpleBull]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I disagree strongly that Beane has been questionable on offensive player evals. He just hasn't addressed many resources towards the offense. Hasn't had a chance, really, since he became GM in May 2017  after the draft and after most of FA was over. But the guys he has picked up have been OK, particularly for the money he paid them.

 

Kelvin Benjamin was a terrific pickup who looks to be a very good one over a lot of years for the Bills.

 

Travaris Cadet was a good pickup for how little he was paid. Deonte Thompson was paid extremely little and gave them probably more than they paid for. 

 

The one decision approaching a major problem he had was trading for Jordan Matthews, and Matthews' ineffectiveness appears to have been as a result of an injury being more serious than the doctors had found, nor was he all that expensive, either. The Bills paid $1.04 mill for him last year against the cap. 

 

Where are Beane's massive misses on offense, the guys he paid big money for and got nothing? He's evaluated offensive players just fine as far as we know. He just didn't really address the offense last year in late FA and late trades, which were the only guys on offense he was able to bring in after May. Guys who we have seen play, anyway. We'll start to be able to judge him on offense probably during the 2019 season.

 

That's what happens when you promise the owner that you're going to put the previously horrible cap situation to rights by 2018. You don't get to pick up all the guys you would have maybe liked to.

 

 

 

 

 

 

He was saying that he doesn't trust McDermott as an evaluator of offensive talent, but it was McDermott who was largely thought of as being responsible for the 2017 draft that netted Dion Dawkins, Zay Jones, and Nathan Peterman.

 

So there's small evidence that suggests he's an overall good evaluator of talent.

[PromoTheRobot]

I'm here late. Did Beane miss on Allen already?

[BigBuff423]

10 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I'm here late. Did Beane miss on Allen already?

 

He missed and missed "bigly"....also, McDermott doesn't value the Offense, Beane is his "Yes man!", they can't Draft or sign Offensive talent, are stuck in the old ways of run first football and both will be miserable failures half way through the 2018 season. Pitchforks and torches are to be picked up in the lobby with your "I hate everyone who disagrees with me" registration packet. 

 

On your way there be sure to check out the lovely kiosks, "Marcell Was a Stud, We Never Should Have Traded Him!", "Tyrod Broke the Curse and They Traded Him! Losers!", with an honorable mention of, "If the Bills Had Drafted Russell Wilson, Pegula Wouldn't Be Ruining TWO Franchises".....they have stickers and party favors for the parade of misery to be led by McD and Beane's likeness burned in effigy. 

 

PTR, you made it JUST in the Nix (I mean, nick) of time! Whew.....

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, SoTier said:

This is 2018 not 1928 ... NFL teams need offense, particularly passing offense, to win consistly.  McDermott and Beane seem to view the offense as a luxury at best and a necessary evil at worse.  

 

Yea, I'm just not sure I see the evidence to support that. They just went all in on a Quarterback. Whether it is the right one or not we can argue about, but I think they wanted to find their guy and will now build over the next couple of years an offense around his strengths.  

[PromoTheRobot]

4 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

He missed and missed "bigly"....also, McDermott doesn't value the Offense, Beane is his "Yes man!", they can't Draft or sign Offensive talent, are stuck in the old ways of run first football and both will be miserable failures half way through the 2018 season. Pitchforks and torches are to be picked up in the lobby with your "I hate everyone who disagrees with me" registration packet. 

 

On your way there be sure to check out the lovely kiosks, "Marcell Was a Stud, We Never Should Have Traded Him!", "Tyrod Broke the Curse and They Traded Him! Losers!", with an honorable mention of, "If the Bills Had Drafted Russell Wilson, Pegula Wouldn't Be Ruining TWO Franchises".....they have stickers and party favors for the parade of misery to be led by McD and Beane's likeness burned in effigy. 

 

PTR, you made it JUST in the Nix (I mean, nick) of time! Whew.....

 

Hmmmm. Sounds like a remake of an earlier front office. You know what they say, you can't improve on the classics.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

11 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

The problem with Allen is that he is a 3rd round gamble of a prospect...one unlikely to succeed...but we gave away a lot to take him 7th overall.

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

 

If Beane pays the price, then the Bills are in much worse shape than imagined as would show TP is clueless.  I'd estimate the success rate of QB's is around 30% turn out to be real good, probably of all the positions on the field, QB has the lowest success rate of actually predicting who will and won't be good.  So to fire a person when there's only a 30% chance of success would be really dumb.

 

The problem here is he needs to pay the price because he didn't pick the guy you wanted, so now he needs to pay the price.

 

And if he did pay the price who would you suggest they replace him with?  Keep in mind that whomever it might be, if  teams  can only pick a good QB at a rate of 30% or so, then any GM you bring in will likely have that same success rate.   Maybe you'd like Polian, he's probably be around 75 by then.

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because the NFL has never been wrong on a "consensus 1st round Quarterback prospect"?  I get there are some people who might just want to be critical of things but there are those of us who had concerns about Josh Allen as a prospect and did not see a 1st rounder there long before the draft and long before he became a Buffalo Bill. Now I hope I am wrong on Josh Allen but I will never change my mind on a prospect because of what the NFL and/or media consensus is. If he is great, and I hope he is, I won't hide from the fact that I was sceptical. Having an opinion that stands out from the crowd is something that has never bothered me though. My track record with those opinions that stand out from the crowd particularly on NFL Quarterbacks is reasonably good. I'm not saying I am smarter than the whole league but the view that anyone who had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen is wrong because the NFL didn't agree with them? Well screw that.                             

 

They're wrong all the time as I stated above 70% of the time or so they miss.  And yes I did see some people who stated Allan should go in round 3, but the overall consensus was that he was a 1st round pick.  And the overall consensus to was that  all of the QB's potentially going high had flaws, none were perfect.

 

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

What "evaluations"?   NFL teams don't make their personnel evaluations public.  The only evaluations that are made public come from various media "draft experts" that range from paid tv/radio/newspaper commentators to various unpaid web writers/podcasters/bloggers, none of whom represent actual NFL teams ... and if the Bills are using evaluations from media "draft experts" to determine their draft picks, then the team is in serious trouble.

 

Agree all the public evaluations are not by team personal, they are made by draft experts.  But if these people don't know anything then no one can argue where Allan should have been taken as for all we know every team in the league may have had him rated as #1 overall prospect or #252.

[SoTier]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, I'm just not sure I see the evidence to support that. They just went all in on a Quarterback. Whether it is the right one or not we can argue about, but I think they wanted to find their guy and will now build over the next couple of years an offense around his strengths.  

 

I think that they drafted a QB to placate the fans ... which is exactly what the Bills did in 2013 and 2004, too.   Drafting Allen -- and using up so much draft capital to do it -- provides them with the perfect cover if their gutting of the rest of the offense blows up in their faces.

[SoTier]

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Agree all the public evaluations are not by team personal, they are made by draft experts.  But if these people don't know anything then no one can argue where Allan should have been taken as for all we know every team in the league may have had him rated as #1 overall prospect or #252.

 

That was my point.  How NFL teams have draftees rated is what's important in determining who and when kids get drafted -- and those ratings/evaluations are carefully guarded "trade secrets" as it were.   What the media people put out is for "entertainment'.  It may sell subscriptions or be click bait or garner ratings, but these guys aren't going to lose their jobs if they say "pick X at #1" and X bombs.  By next the next draft, nobody will remember.  If the NFL FO's pick too many busts, they're out on the street, so the story about how X loves his mom or Y overcame this or that set back isn't going to factor in to the NFL considerations.

[Green Lightning]

44 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

He was saying that he doesn't trust McDermott as an evaluator of offensive talent, but it was McDermott who was largely thought of as being responsible for the 2017 draft that netted Dion Dawkins, Zay Jones, and Nathan Peterman.

 

So there's small evidence that suggests he's an overall good evaluator of talent.

Maybe, but he also thought that Bodine, Ivory and some of the other free-agent cast-offs he picked up this year are going to be starting material or big contributors.  I'm not optimistic. I think they ignored the offense and we're going to pay for it.

[John from Riverside]

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Really?  Can I have the Power Ball numbers then? 

 

A questionable pick is a questionable pick just as a bust is a bust.  If Allen busts, he'll be far worse than Manuel because the Bills gave up so much more to get him.

 

 

 

You just dont get it do you (I doubt if you ever will)

 

It was NOT a questionable pick.......a questionable pick is taking a QB in a draft where it was widely known was a poor QB draft.

 

This was WIDELY speculated to be a special QB draft.......and they traded assets (without giving up their other 1st round pick (edmunds) or FUTURE first round picks.....

 

That means that if the bills wanted to they could go QB in the very next draft (I really hope they do NOT do this....and instead get a weapon to pear with Allen)

 

It is not a EJ Manuel situation at all....

7 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

That was my point.  How NFL teams have draftees rated is what's important in determining who and when kids get drafted -- and those ratings/evaluations are carefully guarded "trade secrets" as it were.   What the media people put out is for "entertainment'.  It may sell subscriptions or be click bait or garner ratings, but these guys aren't going to lose their jobs if they say "pick X at #1" and X bombs.  By next the next draft, nobody will remember.  If the NFL FO's pick too many busts, they're out on the street, so the story about how X loves his mom or Y overcame this or that set back isn't going to factor in to the NFL considerations.

Well....THIS group has had exactly one pick which was Tre sooooooooo.

[3rdand12]

47 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

He missed and missed "bigly"....also, McDermott doesn't value the Offense, Beane is his "Yes man!", they can't Draft or sign Offensive talent, are stuck in the old ways of run first football and both will be miserable failures half way through the 2018 season. Pitchforks and torches are to be picked up in the lobby with your "I hate everyone who disagrees with me" registration packet. 

 

On your way there be sure to check out the lovely kiosks, "Marcell Was a Stud, We Never Should Have Traded Him!", "Tyrod Broke the Curse and They Traded Him! Losers!", with an honorable mention of, "If the Bills Had Drafted Russell Wilson, Pegula Wouldn't Be Ruining TWO Franchises".....they have stickers and party favors for the parade of misery to be led by McD and Beane's likeness burned in effigy. 

 

PTR, you made it JUST in the Nix (I mean, nick) of time! Whew.....

Laughed heartily !!

 Thanks for the summation : )

[BillsfanAZ]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because the NFL has never been wrong on a "consensus 1st round Quarterback prospect"?  I get there are some people who might just want to be critical of things but there are those of us who had concerns about Josh Allen as a prospect and did not see a 1st rounder there long before the draft and long before he became a Buffalo Bill. Now I hope I am wrong on Josh Allen but I will never change my mind on a prospect because of what the NFL and/or media consensus is. If he is great, and I hope he is, I won't hide from the fact that I was sceptical. Having an opinion that stands out from the crowd is something that has never bothered me though. My track record with those opinions that stand out from the crowd particularly on NFL Quarterbacks is reasonably good. I'm not saying I am smarter than the whole league but the view that anyone who had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen is wrong because the NFL didn't agree with them? Well screw that.                             

This is something I dont understand. Unless you are in scouting circles or subscribe to same scouting service NFL teams use, all you have is game tape so how would you know if he was a first, second, or third round grade? You dont have access to his college coaches, players, and practice film. Aside from obvious mistakes you cant always tell by watching game tape if Allen made the right choice or wrong choice based on his reads. If you dont know the play design, how do you know if the WR ran the right route, didnt make the same read as the QB, or what the Oline blocking assignments were suppose to be? How do you know what he is like in the locker room or after games? Never speaking to him, how do you know his personality or football IQ?

[3rdand12]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, I'm just not sure I see the evidence to support that. They just went all in on a Quarterback. Whether it is the right one or not we can argue about, but I think they wanted to find their guy and will now build over the next couple of years an offense around his strengths.  

seems about right 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

You just dont get it do you (I doubt if you ever will)

 

It was NOT a questionable pick.......a questionable pick is taking a QB in a draft where it was widely known was a poor QB draft.

 

This was WIDELY speculated to be a special QB draft.......and they traded assets (without giving up their other 1st round pick (edmunds) or FUTURE first round picks.....

 

That means that if the bills wanted to they could go QB in the very next draft (I really hope they do NOT do this....and instead get a weapon to pear with Allen)

 

It is not a EJ Manuel situation at all....

 

I mean it can still be a questionable pick.  It maybe wasn't as desperate a pick as EJ but it can still be questionable.  2004 was a great QB class.  Losman was still a questionable pick - and that isn't even hindsight talking.

1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said:

This is something I dont understand. Unless you are in scouting circles or subscribe to same scouting service NFL teams use, all you have is game tape so how would you know if he was a first, second, or third round grade? You dont have access to his college coaches, players, and practice film. Aside from obvious mistakes you cant always tell by watching game tape if Allen made the right choice or wrong choice based on his reads. If you dont know the play design, how do you know if the WR ran the right route, didnt make the same read as the QB, or what the Oline blocking assignments were suppose to be? How do you know what he is like in the locker room or after games? Never speaking to him, how do you know his personality or football IQ?

 

Of course there is a limit to what you can get because you are right - I only have the tape.  But my personal view is, and has always been, that the tape tells you the most of all. And it has served me pretty well so far. I absolutely defend my process.  Is it perfect? No. Do I have as much information to go on as an NFL team? No. But that doesn't make my evaluations worthless. 

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean it can still be a questionable pick.  It maybe wasn't as desperate a pick as EJ but it can still be questionable.  2004 was a great QB class.  Losman was still a questionable pick - and that isn't even hindsight talking.

I really dont have a problem with anyone questioning the pick (I still think that is all about us not taking "insert name" QB)

 

But to compare it to the EJ pick.....to me this is a different set of circumstances......a different year.....

 

I think there could be as many as 4 starting caliber QBs that come out of this draft

[3rdand12]

4 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

This is something I dont understand. Unless you are in scouting circles or subscribe to same scouting service NFL teams use, all you have is game tape so how would you know if he was a first, second, or third round grade? You dont have access to his college coaches, players, and practice film. Aside from obvious mistakes you cant always tell by watching game tape if Allen made the right choice or wrong choice based on his reads. If you dont know the play design, how do you know if the WR ran the right route, didnt make the same read as the QB, or what the Oline blocking assignments were suppose to be? How do you know what he is like in the locker room or after games? Never speaking to him, how do you know his personality or football IQ?

From my experience some folks here have a track record of being rather knowledgeable. Some have dedicated seasons to the study of players. Some might well have been Scouts, or Coaches and over NFL players. One or two might be associated with GM material.

Bill has shown over time that he knows more than most all of us when scouting. And he remains humble about it. I am comfortable deferring to him.

 

even when i don't like his evaluation : )  

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I really dont have a problem with anyone questioning the pick (I still think that is all about us not taking "insert name" QB)

 

But to compare it to the EJ pick.....to me this is a different set of circumstances......a different year.....

 

I think there could be as many as 4 starting caliber QBs that come out of this draft

I think the number was 4 actually vying for the top QB picks.

As to success rates? So muuch is circumstance as in the Team that picks them . Their ability to develop him proper , and then surround him with players to increase his confidence and long term health.
 

 One of the reasons i sure hope they are doing as appears and letting AJM or Peterman hold the reigns as long as possible

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean it can still be a questionable pick.  It maybe wasn't as desperate a pick as EJ but it can still be questionable.  2004 was a great QB class.  Losman was still a questionable pick - and that isn't even hindsight talking.

A rare day when a QB is a sure thing !

[BillsfanAZ]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean it can still be a questionable pick.  It maybe wasn't as desperate a pick as EJ but it can still be questionable.  2004 was a great QB class.  Losman was still a questionable pick - and that isn't even hindsight talking.

 

Of course there is a limit to what you can get because you are right - I only have the tape.  But my personal view is, and has always been, that the tape tells you the most of all. And it has served me pretty well so far. I absolutely defend my process.  Is it perfect? No. Do I have as much information to go on as an NFL team? No. But that doesn't make my evaluations worthless. 

I dont think your evaluation is worthless. I am sure you probably watch more game tape than most people. I just wonder how complete of a picture you can get without all the other info. QB's usually get drafted a higher than their grade. Maybe the NFL put a higher grade on his potential and intangibles?

[BurpleBull]

22 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Maybe, but he also thought that Bodine, Ivory and some of the other free-agent cast-offs he picked up this year are going to be starting material or big contributors.  I'm not optimistic. I think they ignored the offense and we're going to pay for it.

 

I think many of the additions are for depth. 

 

I'm really unsure about how to feel about Russell Bodine because I've read so many poor reports about him, but McDermott and Daboll may feel he'd be a better fit in Buffalo given the type of offense they plan to install.

 

Regardless of what opinion you form on Bodine, you can't say he hasn't been very durable throughout his career and despite being so apparently bad at his job, he manned the center spot for a long time in Cincinnati.

 

I was skeptical about Ivory when looking at his yds per carry avg. last season in Jax, but what I like about the signing is that it shows that McDermott is on top of things. He pretty much acknowledges that  McCoy's east-west, sometimes very detrimental running style, simply won't cut it regardless of how dynamic he is by signing a downhill runner like Chris Ivory.

 

I feel better about Ivory because when looking at his overall production, he's been very solid; 4.4 career yards per carry avg.

 

Also stumbled upon this:

 

Who knew he cracked the 'NFL's Top 100 Players' list in 2016.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I dont think your evaluation is worthless. I am sure you probably watch more game tape than most people. I just wonder how complete of a picture you can get without all the other info. QB's usually get drafted a higher than their grade. Maybe the NFL put a higher grade on his potential and intangibles?

 

I am sure they did. I am also on record as saying, generally, I get less excited by potential than many.  Yes, ceiling weighs into my evaluations but personally I have always believed the question more NFL teams should ask is "what if the guy I see on tape is exactly the guy I get in the NFL - what is he then?" Maybe a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen who have so many of the raw materials but lack some of the fundamentals (not the same ones by the way... different in both cases) becomes a superstar and makes me look silly. That is probably a risk in my process. And if that happens a couple of times maybe I adjust the way I do it - I'm never too proud to learn. 

 

I have no problem with people differing with my opinion either and I will debate it out with anyone. What I objected to in this thread was the kind of "if you opinion was anomaly then the consensus was probably right." The consensus is wrong often enough in my experience. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I'll put it this way...if by the end of the 2020 season we don't have an identified franchise QB...Beane should be out. To me, the only way he should survive if Josh Allen is a bust is if he brought in other QB's along the way and one of them emerges as the guy. If he puts everything on the line on Allen and he's a bust and we have no solution after 2 more seasons, that's his own fault.