Beane's Counterbalance to Missing on Josh Allen: Great Trades, Drafting, and Free Agent Pickups.

[SoTier]

11 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That is because "fans" like yourself dont understand that a broken collarbone is a entirely different type of injury which is going to cause more games to be missed to heal......but is not a reoccurring injury like a concussion.

 

But hey.....dont let facts get in the way.

 

Concussions are not "reoccuring" injuries.   There is evidence that suffering one concussion can make some individuals more susceptible to suffering more concussions but that's not true for everyone because there are a lot of factors that determine how/why players suffer head injuries.  Certainly a QB playing behind a crappy OL (which the Bills have until they prove otherwise) is more likely to suffer a concussion than one playing behind a solid offensive wall that gives the QB a clean pocket (which the Patriots have given to Brady for years).

[TigerJ]

I don't fret too much over what was paid to draft Josh Allen.  Trading up in the top half of round one is expensive, no ifs ands or buts, but if there is a player you need and feel can be an important difference maker to your team, you do it.  Beane made a judgment call and I'm fine with that.  In general, I like the moves he has made.  However, the NFL is all about winning.  If Josh Allen is a big time bust, and Buffalo doesn't have a quality starter on the roster at QB, it will make winning difficult.  If the team is not winning, fans will be grumbling.  Grumbling fans make for unhappy owners.  Unhappy owners tend to make for a lack of job security.  I'm not necessarily calling for Beane's head if Allen doesn't work out, but I think that would raise the tension around OBD considerably.

[John from Riverside]

10 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Concussions are not "reoccuring" injuries.   There is evidence that suffering one concussion can make some individuals more susceptible to suffering more concussions but that's not true for everyone because there are a lot of factors that determine how/why players suffer head injuries.  Certainly a QB playing behind a crappy OL (which the Bills have until they prove otherwise) is more likely to suffer a concussion than one playing behind a solid offensive wall that gives the QB a clean pocket (which the Patriots have given to Brady for years).

You are wrong.....there is ample evidence to prove that you are wrong.....and it is a particular concern when it comes to quarterbacks. (note.   Not one concussion.....but a qb that has had more then one concussion IS suseptable)

Edited July 16, 2018 by John from Riverside

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Concussions are not "reoccuring" injuries.   There is evidence that suffering one concussion can make some individuals more susceptible to suffering more concussions but that's not true for everyone because there are a lot of factors that determine how/why players suffer head injuries.  Certainly a QB playing behind a crappy OL (which the Bills have until they prove otherwise) is more likely to suffer a concussion than one playing behind a solid offensive wall that gives the QB a clean pocket (which the Patriots have given to Brady for years).

 

The bolded is correct. Not all concussions are born equal. I'm less sure on the o-line comparison with the Pats.  Part of what has made their o-line look so great over the years is Brady gets the darn ball out and gets it out on time.  Over the two years that the Next Gen stats on time to throw are available Brady was getting the ball out on average half a second faster than Tyrod Taylor.  That doesn't sound like a lot but it is.  Two years ago Taylor was the slowest time to throw of any qualifying Quarterback.  Last year he was 3rd slowest.  I'm not telling you our o-line was great last year - it had some stinkers - but it didn't totally suck.  Maybe with the losses this offseason it will totally suck, who knows? But the last time people thought we had a decent pass protecting offensive line was the Fitz era... cos Fitz got the ball out.  If Josh Allen can get the ball out on time that will be half of the battle....... then it is can he get it to a Bills receiver..... that might be harder. 

[BurpleBull]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Nobody  knows if any QB taken in the draft will be able to "read a defense and not be pressured into making bad decisions regularly" at any time in his pro career until he proves he can do ii, and that's the problem that GMs face.   Their only clues are how QBs play as collegians, but that play can be influenced by a myriad of factors.  It's why almost half of all QBs drafted in the first round fail.

 

Aside from his size and his arm, Allen doesn't have a lot to recommend him to be a top ten pick, especially one that a team trades up to get. He simply doesn't have the "pedigree"  that a blue chip QB is expected to have.  It's why so many fans do not like the Allen pick; if he'd been taken in the late first or in the second -- or if the Bills had not traded so much to move up to get him -- most fans wouldn't have a problem with taking him.

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously.

 

The reason I point those two traits out is because I felt those were the biggest areas of concern from what I watched on Allen.

 

Some worry about his footwork and accuracy a great deal but I think it's his understanding of what he sees on the field and the level of poise that he plays with that could ultimately determine how he ends up.

 

He's exceeded expectations as far as accuracy goes early on in minicamp, so perhaps Beane knew there was more to Allen than meets the eye.

 

Beane was a former QB after all.

 

Aside from his size and arm strength, Allen does seem to have a genuine passion for the game and to his credit he had one, maybe two winning seasons playing for a program that wasn't heavy-laden with talent.

 

You never know, perhaps Allen is far more accurate than anyone imagined and capable of excelling from the pocket.

 

If so, I'm pretty sure the Bills have finally landed that ever-elusive franchise QB.

 

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I'm not high on Allen either but to automatically count this as a miss at this point is the height of arrogance.

as  in The veritable Pinnacle ?
methinks you have given too much credence to a poster.
 

Allen will not become EJ Manuel, a desperate pick at the wrong time to pick a QB.
But i digress.

 The method in which Bills drafted the QB this year was very well done.

 Placed themselves in position to get to #1 . But were wise ( my opinion ) to play the hand smartly.

They did not hang their Hats (careers ) on this QB, They can draft another one in the first next year if need be.
Lets hope they are pleased with his long term projection as he develops.

 so i agree. Much too soon to reach a definitive conclusion. and really no reason to.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

as  in The veritable Pinnacle ?
methinks you have given too much credence to a poster.
 

Allen will not become EJ Manuel, a desperate pick at the wrong time to pick a QB.
But i digress.

 The method in which Bills drafted the QB this year was very well done.

 Placed themselves in position to get to #1 . But were wise ( my opinion ) to play the hand smartly.

They did not hang their Hats (careers ) on this QB, They can draft another one in the first next year if need be.
Lets hope they are pleased with his long term projection as he develops.

 so i agree. Much too soon to reach a definitive conclusion. and really no reason to.

 

Really?  Can I have the Power Ball numbers then? 

 

A questionable pick is a questionable pick just as a bust is a bust.  If Allen busts, he'll be far worse than Manuel because the Bills gave up so much more to get him.

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 7/3/2018 at 8:35 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

John, you’re awesome but have you ever not liked a Bills’ personnel move? ?

 

and I agree that I’m happy that took a qb.  But I definitely question the qb they took.  They took the biggest risk qb.  If he doesn’t work out, they will look like giant morons because there was a ton of evidence that he will struggle.  And I’ve never wanted to be more wrong about anything.  

 

I trust McDermott 100% on defense.  However so far, he has been questionable at best at his offensive player evaluations.

 

 

 

I disagree strongly that Beane has been questionable on offensive player evals. He just hasn't addressed many resources towards the offense. Hasn't had a chance, really, since he became GM in May 2017  after the draft and after most of FA was over. But the guys he has picked up have been OK, particularly for the money he paid them.

 

Kelvin Benjamin was a terrific pickup who looks to be a very good one over a lot of years for the Bills.

 

Travaris Cadet was a good pickup for how little he was paid. Deonte Thompson was paid extremely little and gave them probably more than they paid for. 

 

The one decision approaching a major problem he had was trading for Jordan Matthews, and Matthews' ineffectiveness appears to have been as a result of an injury being more serious than the doctors had found, nor was he all that expensive, either. The Bills paid $1.04 mill for him last year against the cap. 

 

Where are Beane's massive misses on offense, the guys he paid big money for and got nothing? He's evaluated offensive players just fine as far as we know. He just didn't really address the offense last year in late FA and late trades, which were the only guys on offense he was able to bring in after May. Guys who we have seen play, anyway. We'll start to be able to judge him on offense probably during the 2019 season.

 

That's what happens when you promise the owner that you're going to put the previously horrible cap situation to rights by 2018. You don't get to pick up all the guys you would have maybe liked to.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Fadingpain]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Really?  Can I have the Power Ball numbers then? 

 

A questionable pick is a questionable pick just as a bust is a bust.  If Allen busts, he'll be far worse than Manuel because the Bills gave up so much more to get him.

 

 

 

The problem with Allen is that he is a 3rd round gamble of a prospect...one unlikely to succeed...but we gave away a lot to take him 7th overall.

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

[downunderbill]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

The problem with Allen is that he is a 3rd round gamble of a prospect...one unlikely to succeed...but we gave away a lot to take him 7th overall.

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

 

As soon as there's an Allen post you set your watch to how much time it will take before you chime in with a bust or pro Rosen post. How do you know with so much certainty he will bust.

 

[BruceVilanch]

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

The problem with Allen is that he is a 3rd round gamble of a prospect...one unlikely to succeed...but we gave away a lot to take him 7th overall.

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

So all the evaluations were wrong when they had him as a first round grade? I am sure there were some outliers who had him going after the first round but those opinions, like your's are an anomaly. He was a consensus 1st round prospect. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

So all the evaluations were wrong when they had him as a first round grade? I am sure there were some outliers who had him going after the first round but those opinions, like your's are an anomaly. He was a consensus 1st round prospect. 

 

Because the NFL has never been wrong on a "consensus 1st round Quarterback prospect"?  I get there are some people who might just want to be critical of things but there are those of us who had concerns about Josh Allen as a prospect and did not see a 1st rounder there long before the draft and long before he became a Buffalo Bill. Now I hope I am wrong on Josh Allen but I will never change my mind on a prospect because of what the NFL and/or media consensus is. If he is great, and I hope he is, I won't hide from the fact that I was sceptical. Having an opinion that stands out from the crowd is something that has never bothered me though. My track record with those opinions that stand out from the crowd particularly on NFL Quarterbacks is reasonably good. I'm not saying I am smarter than the whole league but the view that anyone who had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen is wrong because the NFL didn't agree with them? Well screw that.                             

[Cripple Creek]

5 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

 

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

hari kari?

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

The problem with Allen is that he is a 3rd round gamble of a prospect...one unlikely to succeed...but we gave away a lot to take him 7th overall.

If he busts, Beane should pay the price.

 

 

 

I wouldn't have objected to the Bills taking Allen with one of their original picks, but it's the trading up that I object to ... and not just for Allen but for Edmunds,  as well.  A team should trade up for a "can't miss" prospect not for a gamble ... and certainly not for the third best QB in a draft.   The Bills decided before the draft that they were going to draft a QB in the first round, and that's what they did, just as they did in 2013 with Manuel.

 

3 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

So all the evaluations were wrong when they had him as a first round grade? I am sure there were some outliers who had him going after the first round but those opinions, like your's are an anomaly. He was a consensus 1st round prospect. 

 

What "evaluations"?   NFL teams don't make their personnel evaluations public.  The only evaluations that are made public come from various media "draft experts" that range from paid tv/radio/newspaper commentators to various unpaid web writers/podcasters/bloggers, none of whom represent actual NFL teams ... and if the Bills are using evaluations from media "draft experts" to determine their draft picks, then the team is in serious trouble.

Edited July 17, 2018 by SoTier

[BigBuff423]

Much of this QB discussion feels more like a spurned lover who loses themselves in nostalgia of the "one that got away".....so many times during these discussion we fans go back to Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, etc. of the QBs we all really wanted but didn't get and now we debate over who could be the next one of these. When in reality, it seems no one is ever pleased with the QB. If this board was around when Kelly was QB, how many meltdowns would this board have had when he threw INTs or forced the ball into situations or took the hit and the sack? His legacy was not about a pristine resume it was about his toughness....to get the snot kicked out of him and get back up, to keep throwing like a machine gun even after throwing two INTs, and to keep forcing the ball into situations until something clicked or hit....but in today's NFL, he would have been run out of town with pitchforks and torches.

 

Point being, that while I was not the Josh Allen fan during the Draft I am today (because he's a Bill), I've come to the place where I'm tired of having Tyrod debates, and "What if..." scenario discussions and I want to focus on the positive. For the first time in a long time, I feel like there is AT LEAST hope at the QB position. They are ALL unknown (given the somewhat nebulous Peterman showing at mini-camp earlier), but there is hope....as for whether Josh Allen becomes the QB savior we've all been pining for, I don't know and none of us do - but we could at least stop whining about what might have been or should have benn or....whatever. I think we can focus on how he needs to get better, what he can do in Daboll's scheme, what he's shown thus far both good and bad, and talk about what we'd like to see from him in the 2018 season - minus the obvious stat lines. 

 

Just my .02, but negativity while the common theme here at TBD, seems like maybe it's finally gone out of style....at least for a couple seasons until we see what Allen has to show for all of his promise. 

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I wouldn't have objected to the Bills taking Allen with one of their original picks, but it's the trading up that I object to ... and not just for Allen but for Edmunds,  as well.  A team should trade up for a "can't miss" prospect not for a gamble ... and certainly not for the third best QB in a draft.   The Bills decided before the draft that they were going to draft a QB in the first round, and that's what they did, just as they did in 2013 with Manuel.

 

 

What "evaluations"?   NFL teams don't make their personnel evaluations public.  The only evaluations that are made public come from various media "draft experts" that range from paid tv/radio/newspaper commentators to various unpaid web writers/podcasters/bloggers, none of whom represent actual NFL teams ... and if the Bills are using evaluations from media "draft experts" to determine their draft picks, then the team is in serious trouble.

I feel Bills made an educated opinion to put themselves in position for QB.

 Manuel smelt of desperation and played out as such. I cheered him as well. But most of the world knew he was unlikely to succeed in Buffalo.

Bills could have picked higher or lower this past draft. Seems to me they were satisfied with the pick and how they got there.
Organized and planned. Tidy even. This is a different FO than the Nix Whaley show.

 And no, i do not know the power ball numbers, if i did i would not share them  LOL

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I feel Bills made an educated opinion to put themselves in position for QB.

 Manuel smelt of desperation and played out as such. I cheered him as well. But most of the world knew he was unlikely to succeed in Buffalo.

Bills could have picked higher or lower this past draft. Seems to me they were satisfied with the pick and how they got there.
Organized and planned. Tidy even. This is a different FO than the Nix Whaley show.

 And no, i do not know the power ball numbers, if i did i would not share them  LOL

 

He unfortunately was fool's gold instead of the real thing.  Too bad alchemy doesn't work. 

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He unfortunately was fool's gold instead of the real thing.  Too bad alchemy doesn't work. 

I tried to polish the trophy ( EJM  future as  Bills QB)  many times after him being drafted in hopes he might develop ! and all the plating came off.

[Fadingpain]

8 hours ago, downunderbill said:

 

As soon as there's an Allen post you set your watch to how much time it will take before you chime in with a bust or pro Rosen post. How do you know with so much certainty he will bust.

 

I don't know he will bust with any certainty.  It's about odds.

 

Every metric that reliably predicts QB performance at the NFL level based on college data says Allen is unlikely to succeed.

Or to put it another way, if he does, he will defy the odds and re-draw predictive performance metrics.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by Fadingpain

[SoTier]

17 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I don't know he will bust with any certainty.  It's about odds.

 

Every metric that reliably predicts QB performance at the NFL level based on college data says Allen is unlikely to succeed.

Or to put it another way, if he does, he will defy the odds and re-draw predictive performance metrics.

 

 

 

More than that, Allen is in just about the crappiest situation a young QB can be put in: a largely talentless offense with a HC and GM who do not seem to value talent, and especially offensive talent.  Even the greatest QBs can't be effective, much less shine, without protection and decent tartgets.  In Buffalo, Allen won't have much of either, so even if he has ability to overcome all the strikes against him, we may never see him do it.

 

The best thing that could happen to Allen in Buffalo is that he sits out all of 2018, and McDermott and Beane wake up to the fact that a team can't win without offense and get him some help for 2019.  I'm not hopeful.   I figure McCarron and/or Peterman last half a season before one or both are injured or benched and Allen gets thrown to the wolves.  

 

As I said before, McDermott reminds me more and more of Dick Jauron, and Beane is either McDermott's soul-mate or his yes man. It's great when the HC and GM have the same philosophy, but when the underlying philosophy is flawed, it's a disaster.  This is 2018 not 1928 ... NFL teams need offense, particularly passing offense, to win consistly.  McDermott and Beane seem to view the offense as a luxury at best and a necessary evil at worse.  Whatever, the result is the same: turning the decent offensive team of 2016 into a basket case by July, 2018, and that's just such a good spot for a rookie QB to be (that's sarcasm BTW).

 

 It's going to be a long,  miserable season for Bills fans.