Beane's Counterbalance to Missing on Josh Allen: Great Trades, Drafting, and Free Agent Pickups.

[Cripple Creek]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He doesn't get fired for Allen so long as that is what is holding the team back which means he needs to do a good job with the rest of the team.  Not an average job, that is what Whaley did... an average job with the rest of the roster while not sorting out the Quarterback position.  That got him fired and so should it do if Beane ends up in the same boat.  However, if he has done a better than average job with the rest of the roster and it is clearly a Quarterback issue stopping them contending (and I mean for Championships not the playoffs) then he gets another crack at finding his QB.  

 

 

You must look beyond one pick, no matter how important the position. It would be an interesting exercise to analyze GMs by the first QB they chose. I would suppose that some outstanding GMs stubbed their toes. It is such a vital position and so hard to fill.

[Sky Diver]

Beane missed on Josh Allen? When was that determined?

[BurpleBull]

25 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Agree.  RT could use an upgrade, but tackles of any reasonable quality are at a premium in the league.

 

Yes. But I think Mills is very serviceable and gets overlooked a lot as being such, because he was thrust into the lineup after first being thought of only as depth.

 

 

 

He's had games where he's struggled and I think people choose to hold on to those memories when judging him instead of making themselves aware of his positives.

 

He struggles in space sometimes against the run and speed rushers can give him problems at times too but he definitely understands technique as a pass protector and is more sound as a pass blocker than people give him credit for.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Yes. But I think Mills is very serviceable and gets overlooked a lot as being such, because he was thrust into the lineup after first being thought of only as depth.

 

 

 

He's had games where he's struggled and I think people choose to hold on to those memories when judging him instead of making themselves aware of his positives.

 

He struggles in space sometimes against the run and speed rushers can give him problems at times too but he definitely understands technique as a pass protector and is more sound as a pass blocker than people give him credit for.

Serviceable is a good description.

45 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

You must look beyond one pick, no matter how important the position. It would be an interesting exercise to analyze GMs by the first QB they chose. I would suppose that some outstanding GMs stubbed their toes. It is such a vital position and so hard to fill.

Such as Ozzie Newsome.

[Xwnyer]

Love Bills fans guy has t played a single NFL snap and he’s a bust already

[Buddy Hix]

2 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

Wrong, and thank you for not owning the Bills.

 

You judge a GM similar to how you judge a player. It’s the body of work. Are some plays more important? Yes. Do they tell the entire story? No. Same thing for picks. The glaring difference is you only get 8ish picks/year. To make a rash decision based on one pick does not do a franchise any good. I happen to believe in the guy and what he’s doing. Some, maybe you, don’t and I get that.

 

But, if you want your franchise to fail fire a guy over one pick.

 

What do you do if Rosen and Jackson also bust? Do you still fire Beane?

I typically agree with you but I find this particular pick to be more polarizing. And you fail to see that it’s not just the one pick, but rather the process that arrived at the pick which would warrant the firing of Allen is a bust.

 

I don’t want a GM who ignores what every advanced stat told us about Allen because he broke out a pencil and paper. I wouldn’t give Beane a second chance to implement a flawed approach.

14 minutes ago, Xwnyer said:

Love Bills fans guy has t played a single NFL snap and he’s a bust already

Who said he was a bust?

 

I think Allen will be a bust but I’m hoping the kid will prove me wrong. Which is a lot different than claiming he is already.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

I typically agree with you but I find this particular pick to be more polarizing. And you fail to see that it’s not just the one pick, but rather the process that arrived at the pick which would warrant the firing of Allen is a bust.

 

I don’t want a GM who ignores what every advanced stat told us about Allen because he broke out a pencil and paper. I wouldn’t give Beane a second chance to implement a flawed approach.

The advances stats you refer to aren't advanced.

[Cripple Creek]

4 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

 

Who said he was a bust?

 

I think Allen will be a bust but I’m hoping the kid will prove me wrong. Which is a lot different than claiming he is already.

The title/premise of this thread.

[Elite Poster]

On 7/2/2018 at 9:04 PM, The_Dude said:

He should be fired if Rosen is good and Allen is not. 

 

This is how it will work from here on out ladies and gentlemen. We endlessly compared Sammy to Khalil, Troupe to Gronk, and Graham to Wilson. 

We aren't even talking different positions now, the guys that we passed up on for Allen include:

 

1. Mahomes

2. Watson

3. Rosen

4. Lamar

 

If he isn't on par or better than these 4, then McBeane blew it. 

46 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The advances stats you refer to aren't advanced.

 

Elaborate. You have a chance to expand on this for us. 

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

This is how it will work from here on out ladies and gentlemen. We endlessly compared Sammy to Khalil, Troupe to Gronk, and Graham to Wilson. 

We aren't even talking different positions now, the guys that we passed up on for Allen include:

 

1. Mahomes

2. Watson

3. Rosen

4. Lamar

 

If he isn't on par or better than these 4, then McBeane blew it. 

 

Elaborate. You have a chance to expand on this for us. 

I have earlier.  You would need to use a very complex multivariate analysis to determine if there are specific stats that are correlative.  

[Elite Poster]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I have earlier.  You would need to use a very complex multivariate analysis to determine if there are specific stats that are correlative.  

 

Nice big words! To make the blunt statement that analytics are dumb, is dumb.  Things like a garbage completion % in college seems to correlate pretty darn well, for example:

 

"The greatest quarterbacks since 2000 who never threw for 60 percent in any of their college seasons: Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor, Shaun Hill, Derek Anderson, Brian Hoyer, and Kyle Boller. This rule doesn’t suggest to you that anyone who completes 61 percent of his passes in a season will be a star, but it does help you eliminate a wide swath of rough so you can keep sifting for diamonds."

 

Now this was written by Cover 1 and those guys are EXTREMELY homer-ish when it comes to the Bills, but even they have a hard time breaking down analytics and making positive correlations. (EDIT: this was written before we drafted him, hence the non-biased, non-overly homer view.)

 

We are bullish, upset, or sensitive because its our guy. Analytics, once again, are NEVER 100% but as some very smart people have stated, it DOES HELP. 

Edited July 26, 2018 by Elite Poster

[Nihilarian]

On ‎7‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 8:25 PM, 3rdand12 said:

i will not accept that Mills is anywhere near reliable i would never be able to take my off my right side after the snap. i read your note at work today. seems Ducasse graded out better as the season went on. Okay. i guess.

 

But Mills just plain cannot pass block period.

5

5

Here, here. I think Mills received a decent grade from PFF for his run blocking as he really did stink up the field at times with his pass blocking. 

 

32 teams, 64 starting tackles, and Mills tied for 43rd among tackles. SB thinks the Bills should move on from him.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/2/20/17031574/which-upcoming-buffalo-bills-free-agents-dont-deserve-a-contract-extension-2018

 

EDIT: Some interesting items on how some of the Bills linemen look going into the season.

 

"The Bills added a solid center in free agency and a solid reserve guard in the draft, but they have definitely downgraded on the interior of the offensive line. Their hope is that Miller returns to form in the new blocking scheme and they can go back to their success he had earlier in his career."

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/7/18/17580698/buffalo-bills-interior-offensive-line-training-camp-preview-eric-wood-richie-incognito-groy-bodine

Edited July 26, 2018 by Nihilarian

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, Buddy Hix said:

I think you intentionally devalue the importance of the pick by comparing it to any other decision, the pick was THE DECISION. 

 

Beane’s first year was all about this decision, the acquiring of picks, the trades...it all was to get thB position filled. Beane chose Allen, despite all the red flags, because he believes in an old school approach. If it fails he should be gone.

I think you intentionally ignore the fact that the 1st round pick is not the ONLY pick being made.....

 

You may not agree with that....there are probably lots of fans that dont.....but El Pegula does

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I think you intentionally ignore the fact that the 1st round pick is not the ONLY pick being made.....

 

You may not agree with that....there are probably lots of fans that dont.....but El Pegula does

 

Many Bills fans are forgetting about that linebacker the Bills also took in the first round. Even if somehow Josh Allen fails to impress because of the lack of talent around him that LBer pick should stand out from day one.

 

Regardless of the QB position should Edmunds turn into another Luke Kuechly this draft will be considered by many a success.  A kid only 19 years old that is 6'5'' 253 lbs and he can run a 4.5 40, can play inside or out.

 

Beane killed this year's draft.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Buddy Hix]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

The advances stats you refer to aren't advanced.

Do tell...

39 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think you intentionally ignore the fact that the 1st round pick is not the ONLY pick being made.....

 

You may not agree with that....there are probably lots of fans that dont.....but El Pegula does

Is there a coherent point in this post?

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Do tell...

Is there a coherent point in this post?

Yes but given your rants I dont expect you to see it

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Nice big words! To make the blunt statement that analytics are dumb, is dumb.  Things like a garbage completion % in college seems to correlate pretty darn well, for example:

 

"The greatest quarterbacks since 2000 who never threw for 60 percent in any of their college seasons: Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor, Shaun Hill, Derek Anderson, Brian Hoyer, and Kyle Boller. This rule doesn’t suggest to you that anyone who completes 61 percent of his passes in a season will be a star, but it does help you eliminate a wide swath of rough so you can keep sifting for diamonds."

 

Now this was written by Cover 1 and those guys are EXTREMELY homer-ish when it comes to the Bills, but even they have a hard time breaking down analytics and making positive correlations. (EDIT: this was written before we drafted him, hence the non-biased, non-overly homer view.)

 

We are bullish, upset, or sensitive because its our guy. Analytics, once again, are NEVER 100% but as some very smart people have stated, it DOES HELP. 

I understand statistics.  You don't.  Or you wouldn't think they're big words.

 

Yiu think I'm wrong because I use big words.  That's just funny.  Or sad.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I understand statistics.  You don't.  Or you wouldn't think they're big words.

 

Yiu think I'm wrong because I use big words.  That's just funny.  Or sad.

"My Big sister likes to make Little food"  and Im ok with that

 

Dont ask me why that was the first thing that came to my mind from your post.....:P

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I have earlier.  You would need to use a very complex multivariate analysis to determine if there are specific stats that are correlative.  

 

...hell, shouldn't they each get at least ONE SERIES with "live ammo" first?......the fickle get fickler 'Oldy 'cause they know best......one pick in practice or pre-season and strike up the "cut the bust " choir........good Lord.....

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Here, here. I think Mills received a decent grade from PFF for his run blocking as he really did stink up the field at times with his pass blocking. 

 

32 teams, 64 starting tackles, and Mills tied for 43rd among tackles. SB thinks the Bills should move on from him.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/2/20/17031574/which-upcoming-buffalo-bills-free-agents-dont-deserve-a-contract-extension-2018

 

EDIT: Some interesting items on how some of the Bills linemen look going into the season.

 

"The Bills added a solid center in free agency and a solid reserve guard in the draft, but they have definitely downgraded on the interior of the offensive line. Their hope is that Miller returns to form in the new blocking scheme and they can go back to their success he had earlier in his career."

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/7/18/17580698/buffalo-bills-interior-offensive-line-training-camp-preview-eric-wood-richie-incognito-groy-bodine

Lets hope it is the sum of the parts and not the individuals to be picked at like roadside debris by crows.
I would love to see John Miller developed. he really was a big league mauler at the run game when playing well. bad ass downfield actually.
 Groy ? i wanted to see him take over for Woodman since Eric went down and Ryan stepped in.
Excited for Teller as the 6th O line man till he gets his footing ( lol )
Dawkins? played well enough and i feel has a bright future but no longer playing next the the veteran Cogs who could keep him on point.
Bodine? lets hope he is coming on and into his own as at least a steady Center ( he is unlikely to play G , imo )

Hoping beyond hope O line surprises us with Daboll and Castillo running ( lol ) the Offense

3 hours ago, Buddy Hix said:

Do tell...

Is there a coherent point in this post?

the Contrarian speaks.

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...hell, shouldn't they each get at least ONE SERIES with "live ammo" first?......the fickle get fickler 'Oldy 'cause they know best......one pick in practice or pre-season and strike up the "cut the bust " choir........good Lord.....

ah

 the Ole  Fickle Finger of Fate says hello