4 Teams that won't make the Playoffs again in 2018 (Bills #4)

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Looking at the UFA list for next season, we may have to sign a #2/#3 WR and draft another high.  I was looking for our Alshon/Watkins/Robinson and I don't see him on there.

If they take a guy high and bring back Benjamin it will be an improved position. They can also swing a deal. 

[billsfan1959]

Whew! I’m glad someone told me how bad this team is going to be. I was all set to waste the next six months watching them...

 

...for the 50th year in a row 

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is EXACTLY where I’m at. The Bills are trying to build for a championship not another WC. The defense could be really good and the quarterback (hopefully) is on the roster. With 9 picks and $100M, 2019 is the year to make the leap.

 

Agreed.

I think we might take a step back on offense turnover wise, but more TDs could be a strong possibility, which is a good thing, and a net positive depending on how many we get.

 

Biggest thing that people overlook though I think is all our "free agent upgrades" are big question marks.

-aj mccarron doesn't need to be explained here, we all know his pros, cons, etc.

-Vontae Davis was probably the #2 CB in the league in 2015.

He missed all of 16 with an injury, and looked below average last year.

Hopefully it was just a blip, but it's very concerning that he could just be done for, and if he plays like last year, he's actually a pretty big downgrade from Gaines.

-Murphy hasn't played since 2016, and while I like the signing, and think he will be good, he's another question mark having missed last year

-Star was very solid when he last played under McDermott, but almost all metrics had him as one of the worst DTs in football last year, but I'm optimistic that it was a scheme/ coaching issue, similar to Mario Williams under Rex.

 

Again, I'm not being negative, I actually really like Davis, Murphy, and Star, and am optimistic they will all be upgrades over last year's players they replaced, but I'm tired of everybody acting like we signed jj Watt, Ray Lewis, and deion Sanders.

(That last part wasn't directed at you btw Kirby)

[SouthNYfan]

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Whew! I’m glad someone told me how bad this team is going to be. I was all set to waste the next six months watching them...

 

...for the 50th year in a row 

 

So they've been great and won the SB every year?

Some years teams are good, some years they are not.

The Bills have not been good more often than not, especially lately.

These predictions are made mostly using point differential from the previous season.

A negative point diff is the hallmark of a team that isn't good, and I think only 2 teams with negative diffs made the playoffs, the Bills being one.

This can be argued that it was skewed by a bad stretch (like the chargers and saints games), but every team has these, so it really evens out.

The problem with using last year's negative diff is that it doesn't take into account any off-season changes to the teams, for better or worse, but in general, these point diff predictions are fairly accurate, though every year there are a couple of outliers, with the Bills being one last year.

There is a precedent that has shown overachieving teams, like the bills last year, typically regress the following year.

3 wins is extreme negativity, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win 5.

I also wouldn't be if they won 9.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

18 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Star was very solid when he last played under McDermott, but almost all metrics had him as one of the worst DTs in football last year, but I'm optimistic that it was a scheme/ coaching issue, similar to Mario Williams under Rex.

 

Where did you see that? 

[eball]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is EXACTLY where I’m at. The Bills are trying to build for a championship not another WC. The defense could be really good and the quarterback (hopefully) is on the roster. With 9 picks and $100M, 2019 is the year to make the leap.

 

38 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Ditto.  2018 is a year in which I hope the Bills are a playoff team.  In 2019, I'll expect it.

 

Good stuff.  Completely agree.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok.. let’s forfeit the season.

Hopefully we are tanking again.

[billsfan1959]

22 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

So they've been great and won the SB every year?

Some years teams are good, some years they are not.

The Bills have not been good more often than not, especially lately.

These predictions are made mostly using point differential from the previous season.

A negative point diff is the hallmark of a team that isn't good, and I think only 2 teams with negative diffs made the playoffs, the Bills being one.

This can be argued that it was skewed by a bad stretch (like the chargers and saints games), but every team has these, so it really evens out.

The problem with using last year's negative diff is that it doesn't take into account any off-season changes to the teams, for better or worse, but in general, these point diff predictions are fairly accurate, though every year there are a couple of outliers, with the Bills being one last year.

There is a precedent that has shown overachieving teams, like the bills last year, typically regress the following year.

3 wins is extreme negativity, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win 5.

I also wouldn't be if they won 9.

It was sarcasm...

[corta765]

I don't disagree the offense is worse on paper then last year thats been covered in length on here. But the laziness of people with the defense is truly astonishing. The secondary was Top 10 last year and added Vontae Davis a former pro bowl talent, they added a potential all pro at LB, and the DL got depth added all over plus a DT that should eat space how they want. Additionally the defense after the 3 game losing streak rebounded nicely back to being the bend not break unit they were while holding NE and KC two of the top offenses to 23 pts and 13 pts respectfully. Plus Matt Milano who became a starter after the 3 game skid of course is not mentioned for helping to improve the unit.

 

I still have them at 5-11 6-10 but I despise how people just right off the defense so quick.

[eball]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Could see offensive production being slightly better just because Dennisons offense was so awful, but I think turnovers increase significantly. 

 

 

 

The Bills turned the ball over 16 times last season, which was 6th best, but the median and mean number of turnovers for the league was still only 22.  Unless the Bills suddenly become terrible at protecting the football -- unlikely to happen with this coaching staff and philosophy -- even if they simply fall to the median we're not talking about a huge issue.

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by eball

[jaybee]

Its what I call a "filler" article.  No news in dead of off-season so reporters work extra hard at generating controversy.  They know less about our team than half the people on this forum.  Even the most knowledgeable can only guess at what will happen when season gets here.  Nothing to see in that article...like most this time of year.

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

 

 

He didn't start only one game...I won't get too onto them for not remembering that, as many Bills fans seem to forget that he started the game on Hoth as well.

 

 

Not sure how they could forget that epic contest.  It has been immortalized thusly:

 

 

 

[eball]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The guy who was terrific at not turning the ball over is no longer here. 7 of those 16 turnover are from your backup QBs in three games Almost half the total in three games.

 

I expect the number to increase at a high rate regardless of the teams philosphy. 

 

Not surprisingly, you are more pessimistic than I am regarding the turnover situation.  I still think even if the Bills fall down to "average" or even slightly below average it won't be a disastrous situation.  I don't think anyone expects them to be 2017 Cleveland bad in the turnover area.

[boater]

I predict an 8-8 season with no playoffs.

 

QB and WR's are going to be awful. Offsetting that, I think the D is going to be exemplary.

[The Red King]

...thanks, I needed a laugh this morning.

 

Hmm, yes, the defense was terrible the last half of the season.  I mean, they gave up a whole 10 points to the Jags in their own stadium and...oh...wait...maybe they weren't terrible the second half.  Maybe they had a bad three-game stretch.  And right there I knew that article was pure rubbish.  Declaring with certainty our QB situation will be worse makes their adoration of Tyrod pretty clear...so this is another case of giving TT far too much credit for last season.  Could they take a step back?  Certainly.  Worst in the league?  Not even close.

 

In other words, the writer is a twit, the article is click-bait, and his prediction is going to be placed up there with other gems of infinite wisdom like Rodak's infamous "The Bills' season is over before it started" from last year.

 

...how long until the season starts?  Not sure how much more of this idiocy I can take... >.<

Edited June 21, 2018 by The Red King

[DrDawkinstein]

At this point of my life, I know I can cruise through the first decade of another drought relatively painless. It's the second decade that gets ya. ?

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

Where did you see that? 

 

"He’s a 6-foot-2, 315-pound nose tackle that struggles to defend the run. According to PFF’s metrics, Lotulelei’s 11 run stops were fewer than all but five of 55 qualifying defensive tackles that played at least 190 run defense snaps. In 2016, he made just four – the fewest of any defensive linemen that played significant snaps in the NFL.

Lotulelei ranked 50th of 69 defensive tackles in 2015, 21st of 73 in 2016 and 72 of 79 in 2017."

 

 

https://billswire-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/billswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/22/nfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft/amp/?amp_js_v=a1&amp;amp_gsa=1&amp;usqp=mq331AQECAE4AQ%3D%3D#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp;amp_tf=From %1%24s&amp;ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fbillswire.usatoday.com%2F2018%2F02%2F22%2Fnfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft%2F

 

That's one I just saw when I googled his metrics.

I'm optimistic he can turn it around, but not "omg amazing signing" optimistic

[Mike in Horseheads]

Its all over, turn out the lights.

19-0 Baby!!

[Seasons1992]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

.............as many Bills fans seem to forget that he started the game on Hoth as well. 

 

I didn't and this is a GREAT line that made me respond. Funny and accurate. 

He started that game, played as well as any human could have during that weather, and put them in a position to win. McDermott hopefully learned NEVER to start a player that isn't ready ever again. 

 

And if anyone thinks that this 3-way QB battle is the same as the crap-factory in 2006, you're completely wrong. We have two vets that can indeed throw a ball competently, and a rookie that can throw it 17 miles and is athletic. They're not HOF'ers but they are certainly worth watching and have a hint of promise no matter who wins.

[billspro]

5 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I completely disagree about the roster being worse “on paper”. The front 7 got significantly better, which in my opinion, was our biggest weakness last season. The offensive line is a question mark but I really don’t think it’ll be as bad as people think. The QB position is either going to be a wash or an upgrade, we’ll have to wait and see

 

This is what I believe as well. I also think we have a good head coach and a better OC, which is very important when predicting records. 

 

The Bills should have won that wild card game, this defence will take the next step this season. I love that we are underdogs going into the season. The players will be out to prove everyone wrong. Allen also seems to be much better than I was expecting. Hopefully he can come up with a magical rookie campaign.