Sports analyst Michael Salfino on Tyrod Taylor/Bills offense

[Rochesterfan]

On 6/20/2018 at 12:56 PM, BigBuff423 said:

The fact that metrics support what most of us already knew is interesting because it was something we could "see" but couldn't "prove". And when national media pundits would trounce on Bills fans for not supporting Tyrod after two years, it became infuriating trying to have this discussion via Twitter. Anyone who actually watched the games, knew that Tyrod was not a "bad" QB in it's totality, but could not be a traditional QB and lacked the qualities and abilities a true Franchise QB is supposed to have - and they've all been rehearsed ad nauseum so I won't do it again. 

 

Yolo, thanks for sharing - to me, this is a bit like an autopsy: we know it's dead, but figuring out why can be cathartic and helpful in providing answers while we struggled with our grief. 

 

 

I also believe that reviewing and discussing this can have some impact on what we expect the next offense to produce.  

 

It is very easy to say that TT made few mistakes and therefore with QB change and the OL changes the offense will be worse, but it is also correct to look at the new OC and the new QB trio and the youth at WR and think maybe they can get more out of less through better design and a QB that will make the plays in the passing game.

 

TT was not a bad QB, but he was also not a drop and rhythm passer and the offense last year and the one this year will be looking for QBs to throw in rhythm to the WRs.  TT was very good at the deep outside throws and the comeback routes that allowed him to see the WR and the coverage and make his plays.  It is part of the reason I believe Landry in Cleveland is going to explode on TT at some point by game 4 or so.  He is used to making a break and getting the ball in stride 3 or 4 yards down field and I do not think he will like the routes like Robert Woods ran - 7 - 10yard comebacks.  

[Rochesterfan]

22 hours ago, MTBill said:

Thanks YiO.

 

I wish this were not a thread of tweets but an actual article with statistics/charts/tables etc.

 

I have to say I agree a lot with the author - in terms of sacks being more of the fault of the QB than the OL (although it could also be scheme).  In the case of TT - he did hold on to the ball too long, but he also was more of a "running" QB, so for those analytics - did he include a planned delayed run in his stats?  I'm not going to pick apart the author here - just curious if he had an agenda.  Statistical analysis is dangerous when subjectivity comes into play - you really get garbage out of it other than "numbers" which you can say support your argument.

 

My real question is - "similar" O-Line, different QB, are we in for a season full of sacked QB?  I hope not, this author does not seem to shed any light on that subject as far as the OL is concerned.

 

 

I think based upon what other like Sal C and Fairburn talked about last year was the offense was designed to get passes off fairly quickly on 3 and 5 step drops - especially early in the year.  The idea was with the players picked up Zay Jones, Matthews and the change of scheme - outside zone that the Bills were going to attack at different depths, but stretching the field horizontally and putting pressure on the CBs. This was to open holes in the running game, but it did not work that way.

 

There were few designed delayed runs called.  Many times at the 3 or 5 step drop the ball did not come out and then pressure started leaking and TT did what he did best - avoid the rush and scrambled around.  Many times the sacks and pressure were on TT for moving outside the protection and into the rush.

 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

As in the top 5 in Yards per Touch?

2015: Carson Palmer, Big Ben, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees

2016: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Drew Brees

2017: Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff <-- gave top 7 since 2 played less than 8 games

What is the pass attempt count?  

 

400 passes a season should be the cutoff as a minimum.  

 

Less than 350 passes will skew the results.  

 

[snamsnoops]

20 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Unfortunately I’m somewhat forced to watch the Browns here. They are on the big screen at the bar I go to watch the Bills. The incompetence and coaching is staggeringly brutal. You don’t go 1-31 with a last place schedule by accident. They have improved in some areas,  and could win a few more games this year but they will still suck until/unless Mayfield takes off and Hue is replaced. That’s the bottom line, imo. Tyrod should help them not go winless if he starts which is the plan. Could beat teams like the Jets etc. 

Man O man. You just can't escape TT. I actually feel sorry for you having to continue to live through that!

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Quick question because I don't know - does he include Taylor's rushing TDs? Because if he doesn't, the whole argument is flawed. Also, the biggest problems with sacks is that they cause a ton of fumbles by the QB. Taylor hardly ever fumbled.  So the analysis is pretty shaky overall despite making a number of valid points. 

 

Mind you, I don't think Taylor is elite or the answer. He's average, but reading this tweetstorm would never lead you to believe that. Leaves out stuff that makes him look good and focuses only on the negative. When I say he's average, I mean it: the team was over .500 when he started despite fielding pretty lousy defenses most of the time he was here.

 

 

Yeah his running ability changes everything.........that literally is what drove the Bills offense to very good scoring production in 2015 and 2016.  

 

And he had many drives where he was sacked and went on to convert and extend those drives.    Normally lost sack yardage allows defenses to play back and protect against throws beyond the sticks from guys like Matt Ryan..........but playing deep coverage helps a guy like Taylor run for first downs.   It happened so frequently fans began to take it for granted.   

[4_kidd_4]

30 more pages of Tyrod blather!

 

 

 

 

[billsredneck1]

On 6/20/2018 at 7:49 PM, ScottLaw said:

Packers should dump Rodgers then.

Assuming Tyrod stays healthy and Hue Jackson isn't a complete **** show, I think the Browns will be playing meaningful games into December and Tyrod will be making a lot of people on here look stupid....even though they already look stupid.?

lol! first hue is a ....show that dorsey will can asap and while i do agree that tt will give the browns a fighting chance to compete with teams in that division, the 3 and outs of tyrod history will be woefully lacking for any success. the browns will start baker in 2019 with a whole new coaching staff. ...and really? people already looking stupid? what team do you follow anyway?

[Dadonkadonk]

1 TT - Playoff appearance.  That is the only stat that matters

0 Fitz, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, Manuel, Orton and bunch of other scrubs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 6/20/2018 at 11:10 AM, YoloinOhio said:

Feel free to report it but I’m not aware of any rule like that. 3 threads per how much length of time that aren’t focused on current Bills? Per day? Per week?

 

Mods got nothing to do but count threads not focused on current Bills.  Sign me up! <----Sarcasm.  There is no such rule.

 

As a note, someone recently started a thread in Customer Service suggesting there be a different forum for other teams.  Those of you annoyed by threads on other teams & their players might wish to wander over and give it a "bump".    I have no "hoss" in this fight, they don't bother me.

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1 TT - Playoff appearance.  That is the only stat that matters

0 Fitz, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, Manuel, Orton and bunch of other scrubs

I appreciate the playoff participation trophy as much as the next person, but the analytics in the thread aren’t comparing him to other past Bills QBs. It’s comparing him to the all the other QBs in the league currently and historically. 

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Take it for granted? Ha. Fans hated it. 300 yards passing seems to be more important even if it's accompanied with turnovers and a loss. 

Ay. This has been discussed so many times.

He struggled with three and outs under Roman. It improved significantly under Lynn and then remained that way under Dennison. 

Be honest Scotty, your ideal QB could throw 0 passes per game as long as it resulted in 0 INT's.

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I appreciate the playoff participation trophy as much as the next person, but the analytics in the thread aren’t comparing him to other past Bills QBs. It’s comparing him to the all the other QBs in the league currently and historically. 

Rank the folks who died on the hills of deficient QB's who left Buffalo because they weren't good enough.

 

I say EJ folks > TT folks > JP folks > Flutie folks.

 

TT folks are making a late charge to challenge the EJ stockholders.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Quick question because I don't know - does he include Taylor's rushing TDs? Because if he doesn't, the whole argument is flawed. Also, the biggest problems with sacks is that they cause a ton of fumbles by the QB. Taylor hardly ever fumbled.  So the analysis is pretty shaky overall despite making a number of valid points. 

 

Mind you, I don't think Taylor is elite or the answer. He's average, but reading this tweetstorm would never lead you to believe that. Leaves out stuff that makes him look good and focuses only on the negative. When I say he's average, I mean it: the team was over .500 when he started despite fielding pretty lousy defenses most of the time he was here.

 

 

That's right, the team was over .500 when he started. Not Tyrod. The team.

 

Again, wins is a team stat, not a QB stat. The correct name of the stat is "TEAM wins in games started by this QB (Regular Season)". Tyrod is slightly below average in terms of NFL starters. Definitely in the top 32 QBs around, but not high enough that anyone is going to want to make him a long-term solution at starter unless he improves a lot in the passing game.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Take it for granted? Ha. Fans hated it. 300 yards passing seems to be more important even if it's accompanied with turnovers and a loss. 

Ay. This has been discussed so many times.

He struggled with three and outs under Roman. It improved significantly under Lynn and then remained that way under Dennison. 

 

 

That wasn't Tyrod struggling with three and outs and then improving. That was the offense of the Buffalo Bills, including both the extremely good run game and the poor passing game.

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's right, the team was over .500 when he started. Not Tyrod. The team.

 

Again, wins is a team stat, not a QB stat. The correct name of the stat is "TEAM wins in games started by this QB (Regular Season)". Tyrod is slightly below average in terms of NFL starters. Definitely in the top 32 QBs around, but not high enough that anyone is going to want to make him a long-term solution at starter unless he improves a lot in the passing game.

The bills d mostly stunk. It's receiving corps mostly stunk, and in the half-plus season or so when it didn't, he had a 100+ qb rating. He is not below average. He's average. Watch other teams and you'll see why. Also, the run game was above average in large part because of him. That's part of his job too.

Edited June 22, 2018 by dave mcbride

[grb]

13 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Be honest Scotty, your ideal QB could throw 0 passes per game as long as it resulted in 0 INT's.

Rank the folks who died on the hills of deficient QB's who left Buffalo because they weren't good enough.

 

I say EJ folks > TT folks > JP folks > Flutie folks.

 

TT folks are making a late charge to challenge the EJ stockholders.

 

Three Points :

• Without the incoherent spittle-spraying rants of TT-haters, the man would barely have any support here. Trust me on this, I know.
• Maybe you should do a measure of Irrational Support vs Irrational Hatred. It'd be good for you; self-awareness is a positive thing, however painful.
• Your rankings will be constantly re-calibrated during the '18 season. And it doesn't matter if that's a hill you want to die on or not. You chose the ground; you're stuck.

Edited June 22, 2018 by grb

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, grb said:

 

Three Points :

• Without the incoherent spittle-spraying rants of TT-haters, the man would barely have any support here. Trust me on this, I know.
• Maybe you should do a measure of Irrational Support vs Irrational Hatred. I'd be good for you; self-awareness is a positive thing, however painful.
• Your rankings will be constantly re-calibrated during the '18 season. And it doesn't matter if that's a hill you want to die on or not. You chose the ground; you're stuck.

You bought EJbux at 40 a share, huh?

[dave mcbride]

49 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

You bought EJbux at 40 a share, huh?

I always find it better to engage the point than to reply with snark. Most of the posters here who are not harsh critics of Taylor occupy a middle ground with regard to his performance, so your series of posts here that imply that they're TT worshipers amounts to a straw-man argument.

[flomoe]

On 6/20/2018 at 12:29 PM, section122 said:

Interesting analysis but I hate simplifying things like this.  

 

Many of Tyrod's sacks were him running ob frustratingly instead of throwing the ball away.  In the same vein all ints are not created equal.  Heaving it deep on 3rd down where an int is like a punt shouldn't count the same as a red zone int.

 

It boils down to this for me.  Tyrod is the ultimate game manager.  He needs weapons around him and the Bills didn't provide him that.  He is too expensive at 16 million to be the mentor qb for the Bills so he is no longer here.  The Bills didn't set him up for success and he wasn't successful.  It takes a truly special qb to excel with no weapons and Tyrod ain't that.  I know everyone likes to use Brady as an example but he is an anomaly (even he has Gronk).  Rodgers had Jordy and Cobb, Ryan has Julio and Sanu, Philly has Alshon, Ertz and others, etc...  Tyrod never took that step forward but I also think the Bills never went all in on giving him a chance.  

 

I am interested to see what he does with the weapons in Cleveland this year.

 

I don’t see Tyrod lasting more than 3 games as the starter in Cleveland.

That was a very interesting analysis of Tyrod and his lack of ability to properly run a pro offense. His best plays were ad-libbed and after he throws for under 50 yards against New Orleans this year in week 2, he’ll probably never start an NFL game again, barring injury.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..here's my HIGHLY speculative opinion (one cent).....Hugh did a decent job in Cincy as OC......his one year HC stint in Oakland is hard to decipher (think they went 8-8).......maybe he butted heads with McKenzie who gets his own way......next stop is Cleveland.....I think he's Haslam's guy despite 1-31.......I'd bet if Dorsey had his way, he would have been gone....but Rebate Jimmy stepped in and said "one more year" and Dorsey had no choice.....despite major bonehead coaching decisions in Browns 1-31 "run up", Hugh has not backed off from anointing TT the starter.....if they open at oh fer whatever, does Dorsey get Haslam's ear about possibly starting Mayfield?.....who knows, but I doubt it.........