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YoloinOhio

Sports analyst Michael Salfino on Tyrod Taylor/Bills offense

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Posted (edited)

This thread is fascinating  from an analytics perspective. I know what I see as a casual fan but some of the numbers on sack % and 3 and outs are startling. Click on 1st tweet to read whole thread. 

 

 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

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Just now, Woodman19 said:

Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

Only threads about current Bills are allowed?

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Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Only threads about current Bills are allowed?

No but having a 3 or less maximum should probably be enforced.

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Woodman19 said:

No but having a 3 or less maximum should probably be enforced.

Feel free to report it but I’m not aware of any rule like that. 3 threads per how much length of time that aren’t focused on current Bills? Per day? Per week?

Edited by YoloinOhio
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Very interesting stuff.  Its worth the read and presents a new take/analysis on Tyrod. 

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I get that people want to move on from Tyrod. But the reality is that he was the starting QB for the Bills for the last 3 years. And looking at the offense’s performance throughout that time, and 3 different OCs, it’s worth reading through if you want to understand that performance and the context around it. There are a number of components presented but Tyrod’s analysis is very interesting. 

 

Its not an “argument” thing. This is an analytical discussion... I’ve not seen these particulars discussed as they relate to our offense. As it is there is no point in arguing with people who don’t have open minds. People with a closed minded mentality will never look at all variables being presented, only the ones that benefit their own opinion. 

 

 

 

 
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Which brings us back to the fact that last years Playoff appearance was flukey.

Methinks a bunch of CoTers are about to say otherwise.

Im really interested to see this team with a more conventional QB under center.

 

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Pretty interesting, thanks

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Interesting analysis but I hate simplifying things like this.  

 

Many of Tyrod's sacks were him running ob frustratingly instead of throwing the ball away.  In the same vein all ints are not created equal.  Heaving it deep on 3rd down where an int is like a punt shouldn't count the same as a red zone int.

 

It boils down to this for me.  Tyrod is the ultimate game manager.  He needs weapons around him and the Bills didn't provide him that.  He is too expensive at 16 million to be the mentor qb for the Bills so he is no longer here.  The Bills didn't set him up for success and he wasn't successful.  It takes a truly special qb to excel with no weapons and Tyrod ain't that.  I know everyone likes to use Brady as an example but he is an anomaly (even he has Gronk).  Rodgers had Jordy and Cobb, Ryan has Julio and Sanu, Philly has Alshon, Ertz and others, etc...  Tyrod never took that step forward but I also think the Bills never went all in on giving him a chance.  

 

I am interested to see what he does with the weapons in Cleveland this year.

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23 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

This thread is fascinating  from an analytics perspective. I know what I see as a casual fan but some of the numbers on sack % and 3 and outs are startling. Click on 1st tweet to read whole thread. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting.  It's an interesting discussion about how stats are fairly or unfairly used to evaluate a QB like Tyrod.  

 

Not only does Salfino combine ints and sacks to evaluate QBs, he also advocates yards per pass play which I think is valid.   74% of the time, the team with the higher yppp wins the game - which seems common sensical enough.  

 

Either measure (ints plus sacks, or yppp) judges TT harshly though a few TT supporters make decent counter arguments in the thread.  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I get that people want to move on from Tyrod. But the reality is that he was the starting QB for the Bills for the last 3 years. And looking at the offense’s performance throughout that time, and 3 different OCs, it’s worth reading through if you want to understand that performance and the context around it. There are a number of components presented but Tyrod’s analysis is very interesting. 

 

Its not an “argument” thing. This is an analytical discussion... I’ve not seen these particulars discussed as they relate to our offense. As it is there is no point in arguing with people who don’t have open minds. People with a closed minded mentality will never look at all variables being presented, only the ones that benefit their own opinion. 

 

 

 

 

 

....sure is interesting bud.......thanks for the find....perhaps you "hit a nerve".....................

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14 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I get that people want to move on from Tyrod. But the reality is that he was the starting QB for the Bills for the last 3 years. And looking at the offense’s performance throughout that time, and 3 different OCs, it’s worth reading through if you want to understand that performance and the context around it. There are a number of components presented but Tyrod’s analysis is very interesting. 

 

Its not an “argument” thing. This is an analytical discussion... I’ve not seen these particulars discussed as they relate to our offense. As it is there is no point in arguing with people who don’t have open minds. People with a closed minded mentality will never look at all variables being presented, only the ones that benefit their own opinion. 

 

 

 

 

 

This really stood out to me.

 

 

 

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still grinding that ax, huh?

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This really stood out to me.

 

 

 

I had not realized that either. Always knew YPP was important but moreso for the QB’s individual analysis, never saw it from a Win %

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2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

Thanks for posting.  It's an interesting discussion about how stats are fairly or unfairly used to evaluate a QB like Tyrod.  

 

Not only does Salfino combine ints and sacks to evaluate QBs, he also advocates yards per pass play which I think is valid.   74% of the time, the team with the higher yppp wins the game - which seems common sensical enough.  

 

Either measure (ints plus sacks, or yppp) judges TT harshly though a few TT supporters make decent counter arguments in the thread.  

 

 

 

Some time ago when I was newish to the board Edward's Arm convinced me YPA is the best way to judge qbs and their chance of being successful.  I like this yppp stat as well as the 74% is certainly an interesting correlation for team success.

 

As much as I think TT is a lot better than people here think, 65 yards passing in a game is inexcusable.  Some food for thought for sure here!

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1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

 

That's either gonna be a pretty big tombstone, or some really small letters to chisel.

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Thanks for sharing! Good read.

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47 minutes ago, Woodman19 said:

Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

 

 

So what?

45 minutes ago, Woodman19 said:

No but having a 3 or less maximum should probably be enforced.

 

Nah it wont be

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The fact that metrics support what most of us already knew is interesting because it was something we could "see" but couldn't "prove". And when national media pundits would trounce on Bills fans for not supporting Tyrod after two years, it became infuriating trying to have this discussion via Twitter. Anyone who actually watched the games, knew that Tyrod was not a "bad" QB in it's totality, but could not be a traditional QB and lacked the qualities and abilities a true Franchise QB is supposed to have - and they've all been rehearsed ad nauseum so I won't do it again. 

 

Yolo, thanks for sharing - to me, this is a bit like an autopsy: we know it's dead, but figuring out why can be cathartic and helpful in providing answers while we struggled with our grief. 

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I’m trying so hard to get a feel for the offense will be this year but there so many changes it feels impossible. Of course, we don’t know who the QB will be, first and foremost. But even when we know that, only one has played for the Bills and none have played with this OL or this OC/scheme. I actually think though that it could be more productive given the analysis of the last 3 years, which showed 3 different OCs, changes on the OL, and a turnstile of WRs, varying in talent. The two constants were TT and Lesean. Lesean is consistently top performer when healthy, regardless of those variables. So the change in QB is super intriguing for what the analysts will spit out. Peterman’s no good horrible terrible bad day in LA notwithstanding. 

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18 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I had not realized that either. Always knew YPP was important but moreso for the QB’s individual analysis, never saw it from a Win %

 

Chunk plays wins games.

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29 minutes ago, section122 said:

Interesting analysis but I hate simplifying things like this.  

 

It boils down to this for me.  Tyrod is the ultimate game manager.  He needs weapons around him and the Bills didn't provide him that.  He is too expensive at 16 million to be the mentor qb for the Bills so he is no longer here.  The Bills didn't set him up for success and he wasn't successful.  It takes a truly special qb to excel with no weapons and Tyrod ain't that.  I know everyone likes to use Brady as an example but he is an anomaly (even he has Gronk).  Rodgers had Jordy and Cobb, Ryan has Julio and Sanu, Philly has Alshon, Ertz and others, etc...  Tyrod never took that step forward but I also think the Bills never went all in on giving him a chance.  

 

I am interested to see what he does with the weapons in Cleveland this year.

 

Maybe this one take is simplistic but it is the body of criticisms that amount to a single fact - that TT is just not a very good QB. His skill set is very limited and his defense always sounds very very Spiller-esque in nature. Needs a very narrow set of circumstances and supporting cast to be effective. With that limited a window to be effective, his job as a starting QB is never going to be secure. Spiller too bounced around a bit till it was conclusively proven that he just wasnt a good starting RB. My hot take is that the same thing will happen with TT in Cleveland. Hard working, good guy, team mate, nice deep ball - but ultimately not a good QB with his major claim to fame being the limited turnovers. Not going to win a lot of games if thats all he has going for him.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Woodman19 said:

Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

 

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Only threads about current Bills are allowed?

 

1 hour ago, Woodman19 said:

No but having a 3 or less maximum should probably be enforced.

 

I actually made a suggestion regarding this:

 

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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

This thread is fascinating  from an analytics perspective. I know what I see as a casual fan but some of the numbers on sack % and 3 and outs are startling. Click on 1st tweet to read whole thread. 

 

 

 

There's a certain irony to a guy who basically says "I'm going to prove why all the guys who love Tyrod Taylor because of stats and analytics are wrong. Here are my stats and analytics to prove they're wrong." 

 

Especially when the system he's created is so flawed.

 

He puts a sack and an INT on virtually equal footing, which is preposterous. Field position is hugely important. So while sacks and INTs may be close to the same in terms of ending drives. One INT will cripple the TEAM significantly more than one sack. One thing about Taylor was that he was one of the best QBs in the NFL in 3rd and long (8+ yards) situations on pass plays in his 3 years in Buffalo, so it seems the 1st or 2nd down sack wasn't actually the "drive-killer" this guy describes them as.

 

Also I guarantee his Yards Per Pass Play is inaccurate because it factors in sack yards lost, but not scramble yards gained. If he factored in those scramble yards gained (he was right around 8 yards per scramble over his 3 years in Buffalo) then his whole perspective on this Yards Per Pass Play, which is a central component of his argument, would naturally shift.

 

This is terrible cherry picking and over compensation on this guy's part.

 

 

And not that I remotely wanted this thread bumped in any way, but shouldn't this be merged here?

 

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