Eagles, Bills, Pederson, McD, and Analytics

[gjv001]

Isn't  Rick Kowalski a wrestler? He and his brother Peter are the Kowalski Brothers, right?

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

There probably isn’t too many coaches in the league that would have made that call to go for it on 4th down. Balls like grapefruits that guy has. Hopefully I can still say “balls” on this board....

reported

[oldmanfan]

Shaw more data is better than less data.  But only if you understand how to interpret such.

[Gray Beard]

If analytics says don’t punt when you are on the other team’s forty yard line, then I like analytics. 

If analytics says don’t throw a long sideline pass to a well covered receiver on third and short, then I like analytics. 

If analytics says don’t go to a prevent defense, and instead you should keep the pressure on in order to protect a lead, then I like analytics. 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/06/19/buffalo-bills-analytics-luis-guilamo-brandon-beane/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

Great article on how the Bills FO and coaching are still behind the times when it comes to analytics and in-game decision-making aggressiveness.

 

Can you imagine McD going for it in 4th down like Pederson did in the Super Bowl? 

 

I cant. 

 

Until the Bills have a modern approach to the game, they will always be also-rans. Here’s hoping our new analytics guy will actually do something this year besides figure out the best ticket pricing for the stadium.

 

You're comparing a talent stacked team who just won the Superbowl to a talent deficient team which just barely made the playoffs despite having a badly ranked offense AND defense.

 

I'm sure if McDermott had all the talent of the Eagles he would be more willing to go for it on 4th down.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

The era to pile on the Bills and constantly be negative without a true justification is over. In your eager attempt to find nits to pick, you fail to see the larger picture and take the positive direction of the team into account. Are the Bills there yet? Well, duh...no. They haven't seriously contended for a title and they haven't brought the Lombardi trophy back to its rightful place at One Bills Drive. But, to fail to see how much traction McD and Beane have gained in moving towards the aforementioned standard of greatness would fail to appreciate the long-trek to get us there. It is not an overnight thing....that was my issue with McVay being named Coach of the Year.

 

Yes, he deserves the credit for righting the ship and completely changing the production in L.A., without question. But, he already had the franchise QB in place in his first year and that same QB had a year of NFL credit to him when he arrived. He had Todd Gurley, arguably one of the best RBs in the league in his prime, they signed Robert Woods, traded for Sammy Watkins and already had many of the pieces for a good to great Defense. So, IMHO it was much more about Jeff Fisher being stuck in 1990 than it was about McVay's Coaching taking that team to the next level. McD had a serious overhaul to complete and Beane needed every bit of Draft capital to really make the Bills a much deeper roster, not to mention the trades and scouring the NFL for guys like Trent Murphy and the DE from the Giants (Owa-Whose-Your-Mama), and getting guys like Bodine and Newhouse while also getting young talent in Beane's FIRST true Draft as GM. 

 

Do we need to see how McD does with the team and Beane how he does in a 2nd Off-season to surround their young QB with a young stud RB and another great WR, not to mention bolstering the Offensive line? Yes, to all of it...and with tons of Cap space next year and all their Draft picks (no small feat mind you!), they should get it done with no excuses. But....and this is a giant arse in this conversation....you CANNOT tell me this team isn't currently trending in the upward trajectory toward winning consistently AND they executed that monkey strangling them for the last 18 years. 

Pegulas need to hang on for at least two more years on McBeanes.
Everyone should know how young these guys are. 
Last year was a learning season for McDermott for sure.
I have to excuse all of his mistakes, and he made a few : )   I expect he expects and we all expect improvement across the board from Coaching and FO.
 To have turned what Rex had utterly annihilated in 2 years is rather something.
and to make the play offs while foundation building  ? Its rather f'n mazing and joyful. The trend seems to be heading it the right direction to me.

GO BILLS.

 

and i do not expect playoffs or Allen to become Our Saviour too soon.

But I have been pleasantly surprised by these Folks once or twice already.

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Lol you guys are hilarious. I’m not being negative, simple posting a link and hoping McD does more than clap his hands a lot. I want a coach with balls who knows the math - or at least, listens to someone who knows the math. 

 

Its great the Bills made the playoffs, yes, and I’m encouraged with what they have been doing this offseason, and I’m even excited about Allen now. 

 

But pointing to how the Eagles were successful last year - with a back up at QB - shows that analytics are at least something to think about. 

 

Running the ball and relying on a good defense will not cut it anymore, unless you’re the Broncos of a few years ago or the 85 Bears. 

 

I’m excited to see what Dabol brings to the table...but I want innovation, not 1990s strategy. 

 

Yeah, Nick Foles is one helluva franchise QB. 

With Talent you can get a better return on risk.

Bills are were still reteaching players fundamentals of football.  No where near the confidence level that Eagles were able to appreciate. They were primed to go all the way last year.

apples oranges in Coaching context. 

 

 I do agree Philly killed it with aggressive play. it was an awesome game btw !

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well put.

 

Actually, I'm all for analytics.   More data is almost always better than less data.   But analytics doesn't explain why the Patriots are better than the Bills.  

I was going to put a laugh emote on the one of yours  i had to thank.

Now i must put up the laugh for the Patriots comment.

analytics is a tool to use many ways.

 

 The Patriots Dynasty is still a mystery.

 

[Domdab99]

Yet another article agreeing with me about the Colts punt.

Sean McDermott tried to punt away the Buffalo Bills’ season against Indianapolis Colts

The odds are very clear on this; it’s easier to gain two yards than it is to punt, hold your opponent to no first downs, field your own punt, and move back into scoring position all with limited time on the clock. Buffalo hadn’t made it past midfield with Webb at quarterback, so this was their best shot in two quarters of play. And to top it off, Buffalo used one of their timeouts before the punt making stopping the clock even more challenging.

 

McDermott made the wrong decision. He punted.

 

i hope he gets better at this this, because until we have a coach that understands basic game time decisions like this, we will have to get lucky - again - to make the playoffs.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Domdab99

[mannc]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is the kind of BS that so often passes as wisdom in the sports fan world.   Try to follow this:

 

1.  Who is Rich Kowalski?   Does he know anything about football?  Has he ever been an NFL coach?   A college coach?   

 

2.  What does he actually say?    He says the Eagles coach admitted that he uses analytics.    He says the Patriots have an analytics coach.

 

3.   From that, he concludes that the Bills are behind the curve because, why?   Because those two teams were in the Super Bowl and the Bills weren't?

 

4.  Did he do any investigation into the 20 teams that didn't make the playoffs in 2017?    Do they use analytics?   If yes, then maybe it's better not use analytics.   That's as logical as saying you should use them because the two Super Bowl teams use them.   How do we know the Eagles' use of analytics contributed to their success last year?

 

The point is that if RIch Kowalski visited 32 pro football teams with the team logos masked so he couldn't tell which teams he was visiting, I doubt, I seriously doubt, that he could tell which teams are using analytics well and benefitting, which teams aren't using analytics well.   

 

Linking success of a franchise to the amorphous notion of analytics is like suggesting you can tell whether a QB is good based on how many times he throws over the middle.  

 

 

I'm not sure you have it right.   My analytics editor has studied the data for over 40,000 uses of the word "poo," and I think my characterization of the article as BS is more accurate than calling it just poo.   And nothing is more important than analytics.  

It's not a great article, but there is nothing "amorphous" about the Eagles' use of analytics and the role it played in their success.  It's an undeniable fact that in the Super Bowl (and throughout the year, apparently, although I didn't follow the Eagles that closely) Pederson made in-game decisions based on analytics that almost no other NFL coaches would have made and those decisions were probably the difference between his team winning and losing the Super Bowl.  

 

Yes, by all indications, the Bills are behind the curve in the use of analytics, at least with regard to in-game decision-making.  It's possible to support McDermott and the job he's done and still wish that he would improve in this area.   

17 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I didn’t read all the responses on this post but analytics sounds like moneyball to me. It probably is

Actually, it's not.

[Jauronimo]

19 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I didn’t read all the responses on this post but analytics sounds like moneyball to me. It probably is but then again I’m not that smart. What I do know is that defenses wins games and franchise QBs win championsips and hopefully that is what is happening in Billsville as we speak. I won’t discount the value of analytics, I believe in progress, but I think that it should be viewed as an additive, not a foundation. 

Its true.  You are not very smart.