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Midwest1981

"So You're Telling Me There's (Not) a Chance Bills Aren't Awful"- Rotoworld's Fantasy and Season Preview

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5 hours ago, Enemarty said:

Bingo.  He's right, we're awful in the fantasy department, other than perhaps the team defense stat.  Which is why his rant is so off the mark.  He ignores the likely strength of the team, as it doesn't fit his fantasy perspective.  I also agree with others that our O-line may not have taken as much of a hit as portrayed.  I don't see playoffs this year, more like the 6-8 win range.  But it will be fun to watch the team grow. 

 

You nailed how I feel about this team 100%, including the O-line

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It's hard to argue with a lot of what he said.

 

Our schedule is hard.

 

Allen is a project.

 

Our offense is devoid of talent in the pass game. 


What he doesn't cover is our defense, which could be elite. No idea how good it will be, but if it's top 10 you can probably bank on at least 6 or 7 wins.

 

The offense is going to be the major problem area. Will we be able to score points? How good or bad will Allen be?

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That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron. 

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1 minute ago, Doc said:

That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron. 

 

He's in good company along with some fellow TBD posters who whined about draft position after the season. 

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8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Isn’t it better to be written off by these scrubs and have no pressure going into the season? 

 

Id rather the Bills be the “under the radar” team that might catch some of their opponents by surprise..

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

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Just now, Fadingpain said:

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

 

Yeah I get it... you are a glass is half empty type...

 

Was Vegas wrong last year?  Scrubs I tell you..

 

If only the pain was fading but it’s been one splitting migraine since Draft night..

 

 

 

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What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs.

 

Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line.  

 

Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. 

 

Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft.  If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft.

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting.   The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills.   (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain.   So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7.   I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction.  

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28 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs.

 

Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line.  

 

Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. 

 

Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft.  If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft.

 

 

 

 

The OL is the biggest question mark for me in 2018 and looks on paper the area where the Bills are weakest..

 

They did draft Teller in the 5th who looks a reasonable prospect ( but it would be a surprise if he is an early season starter), but they had the opportunity to take Tyrell Crosby ( or someone else) in the 4th and overlooked him for what appeared to be a lesser need at cornerback depth...

 

Can only hope that they are confident in some of the younger guys who were already on the team ( I'm looking at Connor McDermott) who they have earmarked to step up this year...

 

I'm hoping that they have something else in mind other than Bodine and Newhouse anyway...


 

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23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting.   The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills.   (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain.   So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7.   I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction.  

This is exactly right. People get so PO’ed about a Bills line haven’t the faintest idea about how Vegas works or what the handicappers are trying to accomplish. They aren’t Bills “haters” claiming that the Dolphins are 6 points better than the Bills, or whatever. Stop taking it that way.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 The offense is a different story. It sucked last year, and will likely suck this year...at least to start. Daboll is the huge difference here as I think he can get McCarron or Peterman or Allen to get the ball out quick to receivers

 

i don't understand this notion that out O will be bad this year.  I get it was bad last year..  However, we did dump the component holding us back, Hotrod.  How could we not improve?

 

I Look for our O to h ave the same emphasis on ball control and perhaps even 2015/2016 emphasis on the run game.  D will handle their side so we won't need 30 points and 300 yards passing to win.

 

so if our D does improve and our O improves a little bit, PLAYOFFS AGAIN BABY !!  Thats how I see it.I really don't care  care what this Yahoo click whore types.

 

 

Not sure how this vid got here and i can't delete it. It is a good one though.

Edited by reddogblitz

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1 hour ago, Doc said:

That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron. 

 

...there is safety as you type from under your desk and never have to admit how wrong you were.........credibility remains intact......how come?.......

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10 minutes ago, The Red King said:

350.png

 

 

 

This guy isn't quite convinced yet....

 

 

Image result for jerry springer

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I dont see the concerns at OL and WR.  Not saying they will be great units but compared to last year I believe the WR core will be better.  The OL lost Wood a couple of years ago and Groy stepped in and there was no notable falloff.  Also a 4 year starter have ben brought in at center.  Richie may not be so easy to replace but at 35 there was no guarantee that his play would stay the same.  

 

The biggest question on O will be the QB play. Could it be much worse?  The team was was 27 in TDs and 31 in yards.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I dont see the concerns at OL and WR.  Not saying they will be great units but compared to last year I believe the WR core will be better.  The OL lost Wood a couple of years ago and Groy stepped in and there was no notable falloff.  Also a 4 year starter have ben brought in at center.  Richie may not be so easy to replace but at 35 there was no guarantee that his play would stay the same.  

 

The biggest question on O will be the QB play. Could it be much worse?  The team was was 27 in TDs and 31 in yards.  

 

 

 

The 4 year starter was offered back up money, and his current team was happy to let him go...

 

The OL might turn out Ok, but I think people can have concerns with the loss of a couple of decent players from last year and some questionable replacements brought in...

 

 

Edited by Aussie Joe

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49 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...there is safety as you type from under your desk and never have to admit how wrong you were.........credibility remains intact......how come?.......

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

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Just now, Doc said:

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

 

It's not about accuracy, it's about clicks/views.  Best example is the ESPN Power Rankings.  Every week there are one or two WTF positionings, not because they believe the teams should be there.  Rather so that people will be outraged and load up that 'Comments' section.

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WAAA WAAA I WANT TT BACK BILLS SUCK ! 

2 WINS FOR YOU!!! WAAAAAAA

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3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

 

 

...pretty sad isn't it Doc?....I'd bet Huntley, Brinkley, Murrow and Cronkite all asked to be moved down to 12 feet from their current 6 feet out of embarrassment.......a once great bastion of journalists are more appropriately "urinalists"today IMO....NO accountability period........

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2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's in good company along with some fellow TBD posters who whined about draft position after the season. 

Some people are never happy.

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20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

The 4 year starter was offered back up money, and his current team was happy to let him go...

 

The OL might turn out Ok, but I think some people can have concerns with the loss of some decent players from last year and some questionable replacements brought in...

 

Change should always bring some concern, I get that.  But at the end of the day they have guys on the roster who have been ok.  Groy was able to step in for Wood and when Miller started for the Bills they were the #1 in rushing.  Its not like plan "A" is to start 2 rookies.  

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35 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

It's not about accuracy, it's about clicks/views.  Best example is the ESPN Power Rankings.  Every week there are one or two WTF positionings, not because they believe the teams should be there.  Rather so that people will be outraged and load up that 'Comments' section.

 

Exactly.

 

This is how the internet works.

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Oh my god! Is this what I did when I was homer?  Just blindly attack writer’s opinions who didn’t say the Bills were awesome???

 

1) I hated the Allen pick because the overwhelming evidence is Qbs like him with his shortcomings fail at the nfl level at an insane rate.  It’s a pick that either the Bills are complete geniuses or the biggest morons for choosing a guy who couldn’t complete 57% at Wyoming,  

 

2). Benjamin was a former 1st rounder who is a monster.  Carolina wasn’t exactly loaded with receivers when they traded him.  His production has gone down every year and he makes Sammy look durable.

 

even when he was really healthy, he wasn’t great at getting separation.  If you can’t get separation in this league, your days are number. See Dez Bryant.

 

3). Zay had a disappointing rookie season to be kind.  I won’t give up on a second year wr yet but his offseason wasn’t exactly off to a good start.

 

the rest of the wrs are scrapheap players.  It blows my mind they didn’t take a chance on a chance on a high upside receiver late in the draft.

 

4) McCoy is a monster but he is approaching that age where rbs fall off a cliff.  Add to that defenses will have zero respect for the Bills receivers’ speed and there will be little room for him to operate.

 

5) they are already on their 2nd OC in two years because they had a disaster last year.  I know some people want to blame Tyrod for everything and he certainly his faults, but they forced a square peg into a round hole.  The new OC doesn’t exactly have an amazing resume plus went to St. Francis yuck. :)

 

we we have a defensive coach who has the final say on personnel decisions.  I will blindly trust them on defense.  But their offensive evaluations hasn’t been great so far.  If we win this year, it will be a lot like the Jauron ball we played last year.  

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12 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

Evan Silva, a notorious critic of Josh Allen ("notorious critic" is kind), as well as practically every move the Bills made this offseason, is absolutely in the camp that Buffalo is a bonafide contender for the top overall pick in 2019.  His opinion isn't isolated, as evidenced by the MMQB article that has Buffalo going 2-14.  I personally DO expect a down year, given the shuffled offensive line, a WR/TE core that most Bills' fans admit can be improved upon, and a brutal schedule- particularly in the first-half (5 road games; 3 home games are against quality teams in the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots).  But this merciless analysis has to represent a worst-case scenario...

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down

 

Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes):

 

"The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. Allen’s howitzer arm and 86th-percentile athleticism give him upside in the same way Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, and Paxton Lynch's did. When Allen does play – and he is likely to see the field this year – he’ll have to overcome the NFL’s least-talented supporting cast. Nevertheless, the fact that Allen is likely to make ten-plus starts as a rookie puts him on two-quarterback-league radars.


Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games. Benjamin battled a series of knee injuries in Carolina and continued to in Buffalo, tearing his meniscus a month after the trade and requiring offseason surgery. Benjamin doesn’t get open, can’t create after the catch, has always been inefficient with his targets, and has bad knees. Not only has Josh Hermsmeyer’s Game Speed data shown Benjamin runs at a league-basement pace for his position, Next Gen Stats revealed Benjamin’s speed was below average for tight ends last year. Next Gen also ranked Benjamin dead last and second to last in yards of separation at target in each of the last two years. In what projects as a poor Bills passing game, Benjamin’s lone fantasy appeal is projected target volume. 


2018 Vegas Win Total

The Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces. A game-winning 49-yard touchdown by Bengals WR Tyler Boyd bounced the Ravens from the postseason in Week 17, while the Chargers were a far superior team. The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."

 

 

I expect this coaching staff to have the team ready/prepared and compete every week  no matter who we play ,  I have no idea how many games will win , but I remember this time last year these so called experts were pretty much saying the same thing , 

 

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