Mindset and QB accuracy

[reddogblitz]

7 hours ago, OJABBA said:

 

Possibly, but the guy I'm being accused of being "delusional" about is the most successful QB in the history of the NFL

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/10/15/16464558/tom-brady-nfl-record-list-most-touchdowns-yards

 

While you're talking out your ass.

 

 

how many times have he and his team been suspsneded? How many draft picks have they losT? How much money have they paid in fines?

 

Anything and everything he/they do carries a giant ASTERISK next to it.

 

They wouldn't do it if it didn't help them.

 

So, I'm not impressed.

 

That's my story and I'm sticking with it.  Call me what you will ...

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

21 hours ago, maddenboy said:

Those Belichick teams practice different than us.

You mean they don't "go eat a goddamn snack"?!

[Ga boy]

Mindset of commitment to throw the dang ball in 2 secs should be action step #1 under the "process" strategic plan.   As with all good action steps, it is SMART and measurable.  Git er done!!!
 

[The Wiz]

Not for nothing but Brady also relies on knowing which db is going to get blocked to open up the receiver who should be his primary target based on the play that he is calling.

 

As long as the receiver gets free from the other db it's a throw that any QB can complete 99% of the time assuming there is no secondary coverage on that receiver.

[Thurman#1]

On 6/9/2018 at 11:44 PM, Ga boy said:

Lot of keyboards are hamming out stuff on Josh's accuracy, precision, and completion rate.  Yadayadayada.  I think it's more about commitment to the throw, which we know TT couldn't get his mind around.  A quick comparison to a baseball hitter.  I think the best hitters know the pitch that they want from a particular pitcher. They did their homework and knew when that pitch was coming.  I remember Aaron saying he looked for a Koufax changeup in certain situations, and just let the curveball go by.  I bet Brady does his homework about players and defenses, and before he receives the ball, he knows who he is throwing to 90% of the time.  No questions and no doubts.  The emphasis on going through the progressions is overrated.  QBs who are coached to do this are not successful because that results in cognitive overload.  Having the mindset of commitment to throw to the primary guy allows the QB to set the feet and prepare for the throw.  All the lower and upper body mechanics are ready.  I bet Brady has this kind of mindset.  Josh needs this mindset.  Brady gets the ball away in 2 seconds most of the time.  Do you think he goes threw progressions on every play?  That would be heck no.  All the other routes are just to clear the way for the primary guy.  I hope that Josh is being coached to have this kind of mindset.  If so, I believe all of his mechanics issues can be solved.   Commitment to throw in 2 seconds without analyzing the progressions will allow Josh to get his mechanics set.  Because he has a rocket arm, he will be able to set, throw where the guy is going to be, then off to the races.  This doesn't have to be hard, folks.  Please, coach the guy to have the right mindset!! 

 

 

Brady doesn't know where he's going 90% of the time. It just isn't that easy. If it were, more people would do it.

 

He gets a really intelligent knowledge of what his first read should be ... yeah, maybe 60% of the time. He still has to look and see if it's open or if the safeties or somebody is doing something unexpected or if the CB is doing a great job covering the route. No, Brady doesn't go through progressions every play; plenty of times he goes to his first read. Yes, he goes through progressions a lot. And he does it faster than nearly anyone else, which helps him a ton.

 

Commitment isn't the problem. Making the correct decision before you commit is the problem.

 

NFL defenses work hard to make you go through as many reads as possible. Offenses battle back to try to reduce the number. It just isn't as easy as you're making it out to be. Yes, well-designed offenses and a smart playbook help a ton. But it's not as if a well-designed offense eliminates QB decision-making. If only.

 

There are ways to simplify things for young QBs. The Bills should use those ways. But given time to watch the tape, defenses will figure out what you're doing and stop you from doing it. Still, for a beginning, it's a good idea, and doubtless something they'll be looking at.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 6/10/2018 at 3:31 AM, reddogblitz said:

 

I would argue that the offense he pays in vs the ones Hotrod played in has something to do with this.

 

Even Matt Cassell was successful in that offense.

 

Oh, and the cheating helps

 

 

Was Cassel really all that successful? Check the stats for Brady in that offense the year before and Cassel in his year. Was Cassel's performance in Brady's ballpark? 

 

Tom Brady 2007 68.9% for 4806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 INTs, 8.3 YPA, 21 sacks, 117.2 passer rating

 

Matt Cassel 2008:  63.4% completions for 3693 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs, 7.2 YPA 47 sacks, 89.4 passer rating

 

Tyrod Taylor 2017: 62.6% completions for 2799 yards, 14 TDs and 4 INTs, 6.7 YPA, 46 sacks, 89.2 passer rating

 

Which is more similar, Brady and Cassel, or is it Cassel and Tyrod? Give Tyrod a similar number of attempts to Cassel and their yardage numbers would have been very close.

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Was Cassel really all that successful? Check the stats for Brady in that offense the year before and Cassel in his year. Was Cassel's performance in Brady's ballpark? 

 

Tom Brady 2007 68.9% for 4806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 INTs, 8.3 YPA, 21 sacks, 117.2 passer rating

 

Matt Cassel 2008:  63.4% completions for 3693 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs, 7.2 YPA 47 sacks, 89.4 passer rating

 

Tyrod Taylor 2017: 62.6% completions for 2799 yards, 14 TDs and 4 INTs, 6.7 YPA, 46 sacks, 89.2 passer rating

 

Which is more similar, Brady and Cassel, or is it Cassel and Tyrod? Give Tyrod a similar number of attempts to Cassel and their yardage numbers would have been very close.

 

thanks. I didn't do a statistical breakdown like you but I do remember they went 10-5 with Matt under center.

[grb]

On 6/9/2018 at 10:44 AM, Ga boy said:

Lot of keyboards are hamming out stuff on Josh's accuracy, precision, and completion rate.  Yadayadayada.  I think it's more about commitment to the throw, which we know TT couldn't get his mind around.  A quick comparison to a baseball hitter.  I think the best hitters know the pitch that they want from a particular pitcher. They did their homework and knew when that pitch was coming.  I remember Aaron saying he looked for a Koufax changeup in certain situations, and just let the curveball go by.  I bet Brady does his homework about players and defenses, and before he receives the ball, he knows who he is throwing to 90% of the time.  No questions and no doubts.  The emphasis on going through the progressions is overrated.  QBs who are coached to do this are not successful because that results in cognitive overload.  Having the mindset of commitment to throw to the primary guy allows the QB to set the feet and prepare for the throw.  All the lower and upper body mechanics are ready.  I bet Brady has this kind of mindset.  Josh needs this mindset.  Brady gets the ball away in 2 seconds most of the time.  Do you think he goes threw progressions on every play?  That would be heck no.  All the other routes are just to clear the way for the primary guy.  I hope that Josh is being coached to have this kind of mindset.  If so, I believe all of his mechanics issues can be solved.   Commitment to throw in 2 seconds without analyzing the progressions will allow Josh to get his mechanics set.  Because he has a rocket arm, he will be able to set, throw where the guy is going to be, then off to the races.  This doesn't have to be hard, folks.  Please, coach the guy to have the right mindset!! 

 

 

I've got a familiar point to make here, but will lay it out slowly so everyone can "process the information" :

• Taylor only had Watkins and Woods on the field 15 games over two years
• When he did, this resulted : 63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 td passes. 6 ints
• Watkins and Woods were a good number 1&2 receiver, but by no means elite
• Yet with a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could (how does that go?) "commit to the throw"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "get his mind around" it (whatever it is)
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "process the information"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor was "smart enough to function on that level"

I apologize if I missed any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliche above, because I don't want to slight anyone. But isn't it amazing how well Taylor functioned when he wasn't throwing to hospital cases or scrubs scrapped off another teams' practice squad? Take 2015 alone, and TT was 7th in the NFL by passer rating, threw for 8 ypa, and had one of the lowest interception rates in the league. All this while being mentally deficient - per the judgement of so many commentators here. Astounding, huh? Of course I think many of those same commentators still gush over how smart Peterman is - a man who has had made more bone-head decisions per play than pretty much anyone in living memory.

 

Go figure.......

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

thanks. I didn't do a statistical breakdown like you but I do remember they went 10-5 with Matt under center.

Yes, but that was a team that had gone undefeated the season prior. If anything it showed that going from Cassel to Brady is worth about -5 wins, not that Cassel did an admirable job or anything.

[Thurman#1]

26 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

thanks. I didn't do a statistical breakdown like you but I do remember they went 10-5 with Matt under center.

 

 

Not at all. Yeah, they went 10-5 with Cassel at QB. In a year when they lucked into a very easy schedule. The year after they went 16-0 with Brady.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BB@Shooter]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not at all. Yeah, they went 10-5 with Cassel at QB. In a year when they lucked into a very easy schedule. The year after they went 16-0 with Brady.

You guys act like having offensive weapons and a good defense doesn't matter, only the qb does. Football is a team game. I don't see Brady or anyone else throwing and catching the ball for 5,000 yards. They need a team , offensive coordinator,  etc, to make it all come together.

[Thurman#1]

31 minutes ago, grb said:

 

 

I've got a familiar point to make here, but will lay it out slowly so everyone can "process the information" :

• Taylor only had Watkins and Woods on the field 15 games over two years
• When he did, this resulted : 63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 td passes. 6 ints
• Watkins and Woods were a good number 1&2 receiver, but by no means elite
• Yet with a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could (how does that go?) "commit to the throw"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "get his mind around" it (whatever it is)
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "process the information"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor was "smart enough to function on that level"

I apologize if I missed any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliche above, because I don't want to slight anyone. But isn't it amazing how well Taylor functioned when he wasn't throwing to hospital cases or scrubs scrapped off another teams' practice squad? Take 2015 alone, and TT was 7th in the NFL by passer rating, threw for 8 ypa, and had one of the lowest interception rates in the league. All this while being mentally deficient - per the judgement of so many commentators here. Astounding, huh? Of course I think many of those same commentators still gush over how smart Peterman is - a man who has had made more bone-head decisions per play than pretty much anyone in living memory.

 

Go figure.......

 

 

 

I did go figure. And what's strange is that most of those games when he had Watkins and Woods, 10 or 11 of them, came in the first year when teams hadn't yet figured him out in that offense.

 

You didn't miss out any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliches. But you did hit all the hackneyed Taylor-fanboy cliches and made a good start on the Peterman-bashing cliches. Peterman did indeed play pretty poorly. Certainly worse than Tyrod. But at least Peterman was a rookie. 

 

I wish the best for Tyrod. I hope he kicks butt in Cleveland. But I'm glad he's not here anymore.

 

 

9 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

You guys act like having offensive weapons and a good defense doesn't matter, only the qb does. Football is a team game. I don't see Brady or anyone else throwing and catching the ball for 5,000 yards. They need a team , offensive coordinator,  etc, to make it all come together.

 

And yet when Cassel had much that same team he had a Tyrod-esque year.

 

Sure it's a team game, sure you need players and coaches. But Brady does more with less than anyone else in the league. It's why he's likely going down as the GOAT.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Brady doesn't know where he's going 90% of the time. It just isn't that easy. If it were, more people would do it.

 

He gets a really intelligent knowledge of what his first read should be ... yeah, maybe 60% of the time. He still has to look and see if it's open or if the safeties or somebody is doing something unexpected or if the CB is doing a great job covering the route. No, Brady doesn't go through progressions every play; plenty of times he goes to his first read. Yes, he goes through progressions a lot. And he does it faster than nearly anyone else, which helps him a ton.

 

Commitment isn't the problem. Making the correct decision before you commit is the problem.

 

NFL defenses work hard to make you go through as many reads as possible. Offenses battle back to try to reduce the number. It just isn't as easy as you're making it out to be. Yes, well-designed offenses and a smart playbook help a ton. But it's not as if a well-designed offense eliminates QB decision-making. If only.

 

There are ways to simplify things for young QBs. The Bills should use those ways. But given time to watch the tape, defenses will figure out what you're doing and stop you from doing it. Still, for a beginning, it's a good idea, and doubtless something they'll be looking at.

 

 

It's all kinds of things. 

 

Brady is smart.  The Pats' system is good. They've run it a long time, same system. The Pats' film study is excellent.  Their receivers are drilled to run precise routes and to understand when to run them.  Brady has developed himself into an accurate thrower. 

 

Allen is smart. He works hard. He's competitive. He has a lot of the characteristics Brady has. He's bigger, a better thrower.   Still, there's no point in suggesting he can be Brady. He's years away, and he isn't likely ever to have the coaching that Brady had.  Brady was the perfect guy for the perfect coach. 

 

One part now it is being able to make the right throw, accurately, in 2 seconds.  One part of it. That's all. 

[BB@Shooter]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I did go figure. And what's strange is that most of those games when he had Watkins and Woods, 10 or 11 of them, came in the first year when teams hadn't yet figured him out in that offense.

 

You didn't miss out any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliches. But you did hit all the hackneyed Taylor-fanboy cliches and made a good start on the Peterman-bashing cliches. Peterman did indeed play pretty poorly. Certainly worse than Tyrod. But at least Peterman was a rookie. 

 

I wish the best for Tyrod. I hope he kicks butt in Cleveland. But I'm glad he's not here anymore.

 

 

 

And yet when Cassel had much that same team he had a Tyrod-esque year.

 

Sure it's a team game, sure you need players and coaches. But Brady does more with less than anyone else in the league. It's why he's likely going down as the GOAT.

Brady is good, not saying he isn't.  Just a few missing pieces makes a huge difference.  An easy example is Dallas last year and this year. Very few different pieces, big difference in outcome.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

Brady is good, not saying he isn't.  Just a few missing pieces makes a huge difference.  An easy example is Dallas last year and this year. Very few different pieces, big difference in outcome.

 

 

Dallas appears to be working with a QB who is not capable of being a top ten type guy without a near-ideal situation. And that's not a good thing for Dallas, because it's hard to set up and maintain a near-ideal situation. I'm hoping Prescott doesn't develop any further. He seems like a good person but I hate the Cowboys. The 'Boys dumped Romo a bit early, thinking Prescott was ready and a franchise guy. I love the fact that now it's a really open question whether he'll ever be a franchise guy.

 

Put those same missing pieces around Brady and you don't even notice they're missing.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's all kinds of things. 

 

Brady is smart.  The Pats' system is good. They've run it a long time, same system. The Pats' film study is excellent.  Their receivers are drilled to run precise routes and to understand when to run them.  Brady has developed himself into an accurate thrower. 

 

Allen is smart. He works hard. He's competitive. He has a lot of the characteristics Brady has. He's bigger, a better thrower.   Still, there's no point in suggesting he can be Brady. He's years away, and he isn't likely ever to have the coaching that Brady had.  Brady was the perfect guy for the perfect coach. 

 

One part now it is being able to make the right throw, accurately, in 2 seconds.  One part of it. That's all. 

 

 

Plenty of times Brady takes more than two seconds. That's around his average, so obviously he takes longer an awful lot. You can't expect a second-year guy (that's when I'd like to see Allen play) to play like Tom Brady, most particularly when even Tom Brady doesn't play that way.. Sometimes you get it out in two seconds. Plenty of times you don't. Plenty of plays aren't set up to facilitate that, though plenty are.

 

So removing the "in 2 seconds" part, yeah, "being able to make the right throw, accurately," is only one part of it, but by far the most important and the most difficult part of it.

 

Here's hoping. I agree with the rest of your post, though. The Pats have a good system. And continuity is huge. But what's even more huge is having Tom Brady.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Plenty of times Brady takes more than two seconds. That's around his average, so obviously he takes longer an awful lot. You can't expect a second-year guy (that's when I'd like to see Allen play) to play like Tom Brady, most particularly when even Tom Brady doesn't play that way.. Sometimes you get it out in two seconds. Plenty of times you don't. Plenty of plays aren't set up to facilitate that, though plenty are.

 

So removing the "in 2 seconds" part, yeah, "being able to make the right throw, accurately," is only one part of it, but by far the most important and the most difficult part of it.

 

Here's hoping. I agree with the rest of your post, though. The Pats have a good system. And continuity is huge. But what's even more huge is having Tom Brady.

We generally see it the same way, until your last sentence.  

 

My view is Brady almost certainly would not have been the GOAT under any other coach, and Belichick would have been the GOAT without Brady.  

 

Brady had a passer rating near the bottom of the top 10 for most of his first 10 years in the league.  One year when he was higher wasn the year he split with Bledsoe, but Bledsoe had the same rating.  The year Brady injured his knee Cassel was in the top 10.   It took Brady about 10 years to get to where he is now.  

 

One year Brady was an average QB for the first half of the season, then he took off and became dominant. When asked about it he said it was because most seasons he would get a couple of hours of film work with Belichick every Wednesday, but the first half of that season Belichick was focused on the D and didn't have time.  Once they went back to meeting every week later in the season, Brady became great again.  

 

Whatever, everyone pretty much agrees what Brady does is the gold standard, and it isn't just about throwing the ball in 2 seconds.  Alex Smith throws it in 2 seconds, and no one is accusing him of being Tom Brady.  

 

Another way of looking at that 2 second stat is this:  Taylor was at the bottom of the league in average release time, but that was because he could scramble.  Brady would love to be able to scramble like that.  If he could, his average release time would go up, but his passer rating would skyrocket.  A large percentage of Brady's incompletions are throwaways, and if he could scramble like Taylor most of those throwaways would become completions.  

[Scorp83]

On 6/9/2018 at 10:44 AM, Ga boy said:

Lot of keyboards are hamming out stuff on Josh's accuracy, precision, and completion rate.  Yadayadayada.  I think it's more about commitment to the throw, which we know TT couldn't get his mind around.  A quick comparison to a baseball hitter.  I think the best hitters know the pitch that they want from a particular pitcher. They did their homework and knew when that pitch was coming.  I remember Aaron saying he looked for a Koufax changeup in certain situations, and just let the curveball go by.  I bet Brady does his homework about players and defenses, and before he receives the ball, he knows who he is throwing to 90% of the time.  No questions and no doubts.  The emphasis on going through the progressions is overrated.  QBs who are coached to do this are not successful because that results in cognitive overload.  Having the mindset of commitment to throw to the primary guy allows the QB to set the feet and prepare for the throw.  All the lower and upper body mechanics are ready.  I bet Brady has this kind of mindset.  Josh needs this mindset.  Brady gets the ball away in 2 seconds most of the time.  Do you think he goes threw progressions on every play?  That would be heck no.  All the other routes are just to clear the way for the primary guy.  I hope that Josh is being coached to have this kind of mindset.  If so, I believe all of his mechanics issues can be solved.   Commitment to throw in 2 seconds without analyzing the progressions will allow Josh to get his mechanics set.  Because he has a rocket arm, he will be able to set, throw where the guy is going to be, then off to the races.  This doesn't have to be hard, folks.  Please, coach the guy to have the right mindset!! 

All I want to know is why in the world is Brady in this conversation? 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

All I want to know is why in the world is Brady in this conversation? 

Maybe because Brady was the example used in the OP.  

 

Maybe the better question is why YOU are in this conversation!

[grb]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I did go figure. And what's strange is that most of those games when he had Watkins and Woods, 10 or 11 of them, came in the first year when teams hadn't yet figured him out in that offense.

 

You didn't miss out any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliches. But you did hit all the hackneyed Taylor-fanboy cliches and made a good start on the Peterman-bashing cliches. Peterman did indeed play pretty poorly. Certainly worse than Tyrod. But at least Peterman was a rookie. 

 

I wish the best for Tyrod. I hope he kicks butt in Cleveland. But I'm glad he's not here anymore.

 

 

 

And yet when Cassel had much that same team he had a Tyrod-esque year.

 

Sure it's a team game, sure you need players and coaches. But Brady does more with less than anyone else in the league. It's why he's likely going down as the GOAT.

 

This parallels another recent discussion we had, on the more specific topic of Taylor's deep ball. As a reminder :

• You admitted Taylor had a good deep ball when he had a deep threat receiver in 2015
• You admitted Taylor's deep threat receiver sat half of 2016 with an injury
• You admitted Taylor's deep threat receiver was hobbled by injury in 2016 when he did play. Now this one took an effort, since you first suggested he was "cured" when he came back. It took a long quote from the leading journal on sports injuries re Watkins' broken left foot (and severe pain) to wring that hard-won admission from you.
• You admitted Taylor had no deep threat in 2017.

So, after all these graceful concessions, we had a clear explanation why Taylor's deep ball was less efficient from 2015 to 2016 to 2017, right? 

 

Nope. Per Thurman, the fact that Taylor had less & less to work with each successive year was just a coincidence. Per Thurman, Taylor's ability to throw long magically drained out of his body at the exact same rate (coincidence) his targets disappeared. Thurman (apparently) will walk sixty miles of hard thorny ground to swing a wide clear path around OBVIOUS COMMON SENSE 

 

Me? My favorite Medieval scholastic philosopher is William of Occam. He said the simplest explanation is usually best and true. I don't need magical "regressions" or mystical theories where someone is "figured out". I've got the simplest explanation of all : When the Bills gave Taylor tools, he used them. 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by grb