Shaw66 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I really do not think it is down to decision making. Based on my film study of him I see no evidence that the inaccuracy and the poor decisions are linked. There are times where he makes late decisions and still gets the ball to where it needs to be because he has an arm that is quite incredible and is capable of compensating in a way almost no other QB can. I am hoping at this point it is the overstriding thing, because as Hapless says that is subtle enough that it is hard to pick up on tape. If it isn't I really do think it probably falls into the non correctable category. You haven't convinced me. What your film study shows is that a guy with a good arm throws accurately even when he's late more than a guy with a bad arm does. That is, his arm strength lets him compensate for some slow decision making. We all know that. That doesn't mean that when he decides late and throws inaccurately that he has a MECHANICAL problem. He probably has a PREPARATION problem. He just hasn't gotten himself into a good position to throw, and sometimes his arm strength doesn't save him. That's why I think that to the extent he has accuracy/precision problems they can be cured by getting him to recognize what's happening and then to make decisions. If he can't do that, then all he's ever going to be is someone like Taylor only a little better. The key to great QB play is in his head. 9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: Call me crazy, but I think it's his eyes man... One of them doesn't know how to point straight sometimes. A slight lazy eye issue. I don't know how you know that, but I agree that would be a problem. If it's true, in some cases athletes with that problem have done therapy and improved. If it's true, I agree that's a mechanical problem and one that would be difficult to overcome. I suspect, but don't know, that in scouting players they test for that. Do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: You haven't convinced me. What your film study shows is that a guy with a good arm throws accurately even when he's late more than a guy with a bad arm does. That is, his arm strength lets him compensate for some slow decision making. We all know that. That doesn't mean that when he decides late and throws inaccurately that he has a MECHANICAL problem. He probably has a PREPARATION problem. He just hasn't gotten himself into a good position to throw, and sometimes his arm strength doesn't save him. That's why I think that to the extent he has accuracy/precision problems they can be cured by getting him to recognize what's happening and then to make decisions. If he can't do that, then all he's ever going to be is someone like Taylor only a little better. The key to great QB play is in his head. I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics. I don't think there are as many of those as some others do. My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate. I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) In simplest terms, given a set of data points from repeated measurements of the same quantity, the set can be said to be precise if the values are close to each other, while the set can be said to be accurate if their average is close to the true value of the quantity being measured. The two concepts are independent of each other, so a particular set of data can be said to be either accurate, or precise, or both, or neither. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision Edited June 8, 2018 by Capco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics. I don't think there are as many of those as some others do. My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate. I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs. All QBs miss throws. Is this kid really that much worse? Th dimly thing you could is put a bunch of QBs on a field with a stationary target and measure accuracy and precision. If that kind of breakdown had been done I haven't seen it. Sorry, the only thing you could do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics. I don't think there are as many of those as some others do. My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate. I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. Seems to me if you're inaccurate, it's either physical or it's mental. You're saying it isn't physical (mechanical). Then it's mental. So that might be decision making. It might be mental laziness. It might me a lazy eye. I don't know what else it could be. But it does sound like you're saying what I think, which is actuall mechanics isn't a problem with him. His body knows how to throw it. For some reason, his body doesn't always do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4_kidd_4 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, row_33 said: i want 11 wins in a season, by any means necessary. the only stat that matters I find this statement accurate, yet also precise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs. All QBs miss throws. Is this kid really that much worse? Th dimly thing you could is put a bunch of QBs on a field with a stationary target and measure accuracy and precision. If that kind of breakdown had been done I haven't seen it. Sorry, the only thing you could do... So I am not claiming my work is intensely scientific, obviously it is not and I am not a "stats analysis" guy. But based on my tape study he missed in those circumstances more than the other 5 QBs who went in the first 3 rounds. Again, as I keep saying I hope I am wrong and I am not wanting to get into pulling the kid's game apart until he has had a chance to play. I am only trying to contribute what I saw to this thread. Because ultimately to me Josh will live or die in the NFL by his accuracy - it is the single question I have but it is the most important question for me on any QB prospect. Edited June 8, 2018 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs. All QBs miss throws. Is this kid really that much worse? Actually, as I've said, I don't even buy the notion that Allen's inaccurate. I don't care what he did in college; I think a bunch of relative amateurs analyzing his college games simply isn't conclusive of anything. We know he's a great thrower. Why he didn't complete more passes is too subjective to determine at this point. The time to decide if he's inaccurate is after he's had 10 or 12 regular season games under his belt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) i believe that putting together an offensive line that can block better than a (very unsensitive descriptive that might offend people) person who lives on my block... might help accuracy because the QB won't be running for his freaking life roughly 0.2 seconds after the snap it was quite a ride with Tyrod... almost every play... THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!! GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!! GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!! GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!! GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!! GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!! and then read some punk telling me his % completions was heavenly or some !@#$ing bull **** like that every week I won't miss this at all. Edited June 8, 2018 by row_33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 examples of guys from college with accuracy issues getting better as pros Matthew Stafford Georgia, 57.1 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Georgia 564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3 *2006 Georgia SEC FR QB 13 135 256 52.7 1749 6.8 5.1 7 13 109.0 *2007 Georgia SEC SO QB 13 194 348 55.7 2523 7.3 7.0 19 10 128.9 *2008 Georgia SEC JR QB 13 235 383 61.4 3459 9.0 9.2 25 10 153.5 Matt Ryan, BC , 59.9 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Boston College 807 1347 59.9 9313 6.9 6.5 56 37 126.2 *2004 Boston College Big East FR QB 7 35 71 49.3 350 4.9 3.6 2 3 91.5 *2005 Boston College ACC SO QB 10 121 195 62.1 1514 7.8 7.4 8 5 135.7 *2006 Boston College ACC JR QB 12 263 427 61.6 2942 6.9 6.5 15 10 126.4 *2007 Boston College ACC SR QB 14 388 654 59.3 4507 6.9 6.5 31 19 127.0 and our QB, Josh Allen, Wyoming, 56.2% Completion %, 2/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Wyoming 365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21 137.7 2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1 *2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9 *2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming. Edited June 8, 2018 by Tatonka68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 you don't draft a project at 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said: Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming. Yes, a variety of things can go into having a low completion percentage. But if you are an inaccurate passer (which several people here believe based on their study) you WILL have a low completion percentage. So in this case, low completion percentage is at least some support for the notion that he's inaccurate. 7 minutes ago, freddyjj said: 2 examples of guys from college with accuracy issues getting better as pros Matthew Stafford Georgia, 57.1 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Georgia 564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3 *2006 Georgia SEC FR QB 13 135 256 52.7 1749 6.8 5.1 7 13 109.0 *2007 Georgia SEC SO QB 13 194 348 55.7 2523 7.3 7.0 19 10 128.9 *2008 Georgia SEC JR QB 13 235 383 61.4 3459 9.0 9.2 25 10 153.5 Matt Ryan, BC , 59.9 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Boston College 807 1347 59.9 9313 6.9 6.5 56 37 126.2 *2004 Boston College Big East FR QB 7 35 71 49.3 350 4.9 3.6 2 3 91.5 *2005 Boston College ACC SO QB 10 121 195 62.1 1514 7.8 7.4 8 5 135.7 *2006 Boston College ACC JR QB 12 263 427 61.6 2942 6.9 6.5 15 10 126.4 *2007 Boston College ACC SR QB 14 388 654 59.3 4507 6.9 6.5 31 19 127.0 and our QB, Josh Allen, Wyoming, 56.2% Completion %, 2/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Wyoming 365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21 137.7 2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1 *2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9 *2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 And Stafford was throwing to Knowshon Moreno and AJ Green in college. 5 minutes ago, jr1 said: you don't draft a project at 7 Yes you do, if he's a QB The reason you do is that if you don't, unless you have the #1 pick overall in a year when Andrew Luck is coming out, you'll never a QB in the first round. The talent is in the first round. At QB, they're essentially all projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 13 hours ago, 4_kidd_4 said: 58% of all statistics are made up. That’s my joke and it’s 72%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 32 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said: Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming. To be clear I have never, ever used completion % to justify my accuracy concerns about Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4_kidd_4 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, chris heff said: That’s my joke and it’s 72%. Yeah, well, 83% of ‘your’ jokes are stolen in the first place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 (edited) Edited June 8, 2018 by THE SLAMMER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: So I am not claiming my work is intensely scientific, obviously it is not and I am not a "stats analysis" guy. But based on my tape study he missed in those circumstances more than the other 5 QBs who went in the first 3 rounds. Again, as I keep saying I hope I am wrong and I am not wanting to get into pulling the kid's game apart until he has had a chance to play. I am only trying to contribute what I saw to this thread. Because ultimately to me Josh will live or die in the NFL by his accuracy - it is the single question I have but it is the most important question for me on any QB prospect. I agree with this last paragraph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB@Shooter Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 11 hours ago, LeGOATski said: Accuracy issues seem to be rarely fixed and, like others have said, it depends on what they stem from. It's well-documented in film scouting reports before the draft (Matt Waldman, Voch Lombardi, Cover1, etc.) that Allen has accuracy issues stemming from beyond just lower body mechanics. Sometimes his mechanics are sound and he still just misses. No explanation. That will not be correctable. How much of that gap he can bridge is yet to be determined. Fingers crossed. And what about when his mechanics are bad and he is perfectly on? Or when they are good and he is on? You make it sounds like he hits the bench with every other throw. Why not wait to see him throw the ball and use that? Or does that make too much sense? To actually see if he is better than what your mind has conjured up? Instead of taking information you selectively used to push your agenda? Their are professionals out there that are saying he will be very good, or has a chance at it. I watched Lombardi break down Allens film. Is the guy on downers or something? That was hard to get through. Why did you leave out the good stuff Lombardi had to say? Oh right, it didn't fit your agenda. Funny how that works. I don't recall watching Walkman break down Allen, I will have to look for that. Why can't you guys wait to see Allen in person? You are only taking the information ou there that is negative and using it. Poor way of doing it, especially when he is a Bill. Wouldn't it be better if he suprised you and made the Bills better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: To be clear I have never, ever used completion % to justify my accuracy concerns about Allen. Then how you do get the idea he is inaccurate? The "EXPERTS??". LOL Please just watch him yourself. Looks pretty damn accurate to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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