How much longer will we have shady?

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

47 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

 

I suppose the bolded is why we differ on this.

 

I thought, several times last year that McCoy looked to have lost a step.

 

That aside, my real premise is based on that huge money for a 30+ RB with declined production (despite the reasons). On it's face it just doesn't seem feasable.

 

I agree with why it makes sense to move on soon. I just don't see negative runs and injuries as being a sign of slowing down (as it relates to McCoy specifically). He played all 16 games last year, and even finished a game (Tampa?) where it looked like he took a very nasty hit on the knee before half-time.

 

Shady has never been the fastest back in the league, and will get chased down at times, but I didn't see a noticeably "slower" McCoy. Perhaps his incredible elusiveness at times amazed me so much that I didn't notice a slower player???

27 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Blount’s running style is not comparable with a player like Shady. Once he loses another half a step everyone will be ready for new blood at the position. Him remaining healthy for 16 games and averaging over 4YPC this season is a dream. 

 

Agreed, but my point was more about choosing a contending team. I thought the Eagles would be good and win the division before the season started, but I never thought they'd win a Super Bowl with a 2nd year (and eventually injured) QB. 

 

The Bills may be a bit farther off next year than the Eagles were last year, but I wouldn't rule out the Bills being a serious player for the postseason next year, especially if Brady retires.

8 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

 

I thought the oline play was poor and the scheme was terrible shady hasn’t taking hits like other rbs with no major injuries 

 

half the time he had a DL/LB in the backfield and had to make something out of nothing

 

also last year we had no backup (Tolbert sucked) I think limiting his reps and a better scheme his numbers will increase oline play still worries me but hoping a better OC can help minimize their weaknesses 

 

And what are we gonna get a 3rd? If that 

 

No way they get a 3rd. Given his age, salary, and impending free agency, I'd be happy with a 5th, even for a future HOFer. 

 

I would love to see shady retire in Buffalo in a couple years, but I do agree that, from a business standpoint, it makes a lot of sense to believe he won't (if he wants to keep playing past next year).

[Heavy Kevi]

7 minutes ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

I agree with why it makes sense to move on soon. I just don't see negative runs and injuries as being a sign of slowing down (as it relates to McCoy specifically). He played all 16 games last year, and even finished a game (Tampa?) where it looked like he took a very nasty hit on the knee before half-time.

 

Shady has never been the fastest back in the league, and will get chased down at times, but I didn't see a noticeably "slower" McCoy. Perhaps his incredible elusiveness at times amazed me so much that I didn't notice a slower player???

 

Agreed, but my point was more about choosing a contending team. I thought the Eagles would be good and win the division before the season started, but I never thought they'd win a Super Bowl with a 2nd year (and eventually injured) QB. 

 

The Bills may be a bit farther off next year than the Eagles were last year, but I wouldn't rule out the Bills being a serious player for the postseason next year, especially if Brady retires.

 

Yeah, don't get me wrong DPG... He looked awesome at times.

 

I think the negative runs are a sign, however. It wasn't even particularly the fact he was taking negative runs (happens with his style), but the sudden increase in negative runs, and the fact that they are getting larger losses. There were just too many -10ish yard rushes. That's a drive killer. Imo his "quickness" isn't where it used to be, but his mind still thinks it's there, causing him to do more horizontal running looking for that homerun. 

 

I would love to bring in a complimentary guy (maybe on the roster) that can share carries with him. I think in a MJD/Fred Taylor type backfield could increase Shady's value and extend his career, but I don't see him taking the pay cut he would likely have to take to stay here beyond this year.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Shotgunner said:

 

I don't agree with this.

 

No signs of slowing down? He has seen a jump in runs that go for negative yards, and it's not because he's doing anything different. It's because he is doing everything the same, but is no longer faster than everyone else.

 

He now gets injured more often, a telltale sign of "slowing down".

 

I really like Shady, but beyond this year I just don't see it. If his stats this year drop as much as they did from 2016 to 2017 (even with more carries in 2017), we probably won't pay him 10mil in 2019.

 

Year	Team	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
2017	Bills	287	1,138	4.0	6
2016	Bills	234	1,267	5.4	13

 

 

Gotta factor the OL into that as well......not to mention not having a passing game to take the pressure off him.

[Gugny]

37 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

 

I thought the oline play was poor and the scheme was terrible shady hasn’t taking hits like other rbs with no major injuries 

 

half the time he had a DL/LB in the backfield and had to make something out of nothing

 

also last year we had no backup (Tolbert sucked) I think limiting his reps and a better scheme his numbers will increase oline play still worries me but hoping a better OC can help minimize their weaknesses 

 

And what are we gonna get a 3rd? If that 

 

A third is better than getting nothing.  Unless you think the Bills are primed to win this season, I really think it's in the best interest of the team to trade him to a team in need at the right time.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

A third is better than getting nothing.  Unless you think the Bills are primed to win this season, I really think it's in the best interest of the team to trade him to a team in need at the right time.

I think I have waffled on this because I was in agreement last year.  Now I think I would just like to see him retire a bill.

[Jay_Fixit]

Hopefully the Bills are smart and try to unload him before it’s too late. If the Bills are out of it by the trade deadline, I’d hope it’s a consideration.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Shotgunner said:

 

I don't agree with this.

 

No signs of slowing down? He has seen a jump in runs that go for negative yards, and it's not because he's doing anything different. It's because he is doing everything the same, but is no longer faster than everyone else.

 

He now gets injured more often, a telltale sign of "slowing down".

 

I really like Shady, but beyond this year I just don't see it. If his stats this year drop as much as they did from 2016 to 2017 (even with more carries in 2017), we probably won't pay him 10mil in 2019.

 

Year	Team	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
2017	Bills	287	1,138	4.0	6
2016	Bills	234	1,267	5.4	13

 

 

 

 

McCoy has been gradually losing a bit off his fastball since his last big year in Philly but he's combatted that by getting lighter to recoup any natural loss of quickness and the light came on in 2016 wrt following his blocking instead of trying to outrun the NFL's new breed of increasingly smaller/faster LB's to the edge on every play like he did in 2014 and 2015 when he greatly underachieved in RB friendly Kelly/Roman schemes.    His huge dropoff last year was mostly due to the scheme and the lack of WR talent to keep defenses honest.......but physically he's definitely not Shady 2013 anymore........he's smaller and he took a lot more direct hits than ever-before last year.    A return to more RPO is what he needs more than anything.    Gotta' cause at least a bit of hesitation for defenses so he can get started and use his short area elusiveness. 

[mikemac2001]

31 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

A third is better than getting nothing.  Unless you think the Bills are primed to win this season, I really think it's in the best interest of the team to trade him to a team in need at the right time.

 

I would take 2 or more years of McCoy over a 3rd round pick 

 

now I can’t predict how those years would be but if he is still performing in the 2nd year I think the value is good. We aren’t hurting for cap and yes he can help a young QB in year 2 

[Infinitum]

This will be his last season as a Bill.

[Gugny]

Just now, mikemac2001 said:

 

I would take 2 or more years of McCoy over a 3rd round pick 

 

now I can’t predict how those years would be but if he is still performing in the 2nd year I think the value is good. We aren’t hurting for cap and yes he can help a young QB in year 2 

 

It looks like we simply (and respectfully, thank you (that's getting rare around here, these days)) disagree on this one.

 

I see your points and I really do love me some Shady.

 

But I think a 3rd round pick (if that's what he'd garner) is better than an aging RB on a team that's getting younger.  Unfortunately for Shady (and Fred, McGahee, Lynch, Henry, etc.), he's been a great RB on crappy Bills teams.  Timing just wasn't right.

 

I'd love to see the Bills get some draft power AND to see Shady go to a contender.

 

 

[mikemac2001]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

It looks like we simply (and respectfully, thank you (that's getting rare around here, these days)) disagree on this one.

 

I see your points and I really do love me some Shady.

 

But I think a 3rd round pick (if that's what he'd garner) is better than an aging RB on a team that's getting younger.  Unfortunately for Shady (and Fred, McGahee, Lynch, Henry, etc.), he's been a great RB on crappy Bills teams.  Timing just wasn't right.

 

I'd love to see the Bills get some draft power AND to see Shady go to a contender.

 

 

 

My issue is it’s still a maybe with a 3rd rounder so maybe we get a player or maybe shady sucks or maybe he doesn’t 

 

If we drafted a stud in the 3rd round it would be an awesome deal if we didn’t and shady went on to 2-3 more solid seasons it would be a bad move. 

 

Thats why I see how he plays this year I can’t see him having worse stats (about the same) then last year. We could still trade him or keep him depending on the growth of the team 

 

But yes both sides could have a win win with a trade 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

1 hour ago, Shotgunner said:

 

Yeah, don't get me wrong DPG... He looked awesome at times.

 

I think the negative runs are a sign, however. It wasn't even particularly the fact he was taking negative runs (happens with his style), but the sudden increase in negative runs, and the fact that they are getting larger losses. There were just too many -10ish yard rushes. That's a drive killer. Imo his "quickness" isn't where it used to be, but his mind still thinks it's there, causing him to do more horizontal running looking for that homerun. 

 

I would love to bring in a complimentary guy (maybe on the roster) that can share carries with him. I think in a MJD/Fred Taylor type backfield could increase Shady's value and extend his career, but I don't see him taking the pay cut he would likely have to take to stay here beyond this year.

 

I put more of the negative runs on the line and blocking scheme, but that's just me.

 

I think we all agree that the hourglass is running down with him, and that what we hope for isn't what we should expect. 

[rodneykm]

16 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Right... because around the NFL there is huge demand for 31 year old RBs

 

I never, ever said we'd get a lot for him. We'd do this if we are out of contention like the negative Nancys like to say. A favor to him. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Unfortunately as much as we all love Shady and what he's meant to the Bills, the shelf life for an NFL RB is around 30. The drop off comes quickly.  With all the changes to our OL this year I just don't see McCoy having some breakout 1300+ season? Now that we have a qb who "might" prove to be franchise quality, I see McB starting to go young at WR & RB. I honestly see this as Shadys last year in Buffalo. 

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, Uncle Joe said:

No worries I am king of the typo...

I challenge you !

 

☺️

8 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

@Shotgunner I don't think his drop in YPC has as much to do with him, as it does the change in scheme and blocking principles of the Bills from 2016 to 2017. That, and having a much weaker WR group last year made things easier for defenses to stop the run against Buffalo. McCoy was much more of a focal point for defenses last year, IMO. And Woods is a very good blocker for a WR. Shouldn't runs for negative yards be more of a reflection of the offensive line and not the RB?

 

In 2015 and 2016, the Bills ran many plays with pulling linemen, which greatly helped McCoy's YPC. That, and having a capable back to spell him (which he didn't have last year). I don't know the exact number, but the Bills used pulling linemen far less frequently last season.

 

And he's not getting injured more frequently now. I don't know where people are getting that from.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McCoLe01.htm

 

In 2015, Rex played McCoy way too much in preseason, and he took a bunch of hard hits on several runs, leading to his injury (hamstring???). I remember it clearly, and never understood why they kept him on the field after those hits.

 

Watching him run last year, I don't remember any instance where I thought he had lost a step.

 

The last part of your post, I agree with though.

very good post.
 he looked to play smarter last year. more efficient perhaps?

But we have to admit he is beyond his physical peak.How they care for their body and mind on and off the football becomes even more important as age sets in.

Edited May 18, 2018 by 3rdand12

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

McCoy has been gradually losing a bit off his fastball since his last big year in Philly but he's combatted that by getting lighter to recoup any natural loss of quickness and the light came on in 2016 wrt following his blocking instead of trying to outrun the NFL's new breed of increasingly smaller/faster LB's to the edge on every play like he did in 2014 and 2015 when he greatly underachieved in RB friendly Kelly/Roman schemes.    His huge dropoff last year was mostly due to the scheme and the lack of WR talent to keep defenses honest.......but physically he's definitely not Shady 2013 anymore........he's smaller and he took a lot more direct hits than ever-before last year.    A return to more RPO is what he needs more than anything.    Gotta' cause at least a bit of hesitation for defenses so he can get started and use his short area elusiveness. 

I am on board with most all of your thoughts except this one. He seemed to be available more this past year than the previous.
Shame about last years Offense overall, Staffing, players and coaching should have done better. and Shady still playered his azz off.
no to trading, lest he ask

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I am on board with most all of your thoughts except this one. He seemed to be available more this past year than the previous.
Shame about last years Offense overall, Staffing, players and coaching should have done better. and Shady still playered his azz off.
no to trading, lest he ask

 

 

Last year he took a lot of jarring hits......which is something that almost never used to happen.   He's always been a guy who turtled and left his feet on contact which deadened the impact of hits.    But they used and abused him last year and with that workload at this stage of his career he couldn't avoid it.    Should have been sub-200 carries to extend him and get more production per touch........but instead they didn't have even a decent second RB option and gave him nearly 300 carries and were fortunate that he was able to gut it out in the playoff game.    If the end game is a deep playoff run you gotta' conserve him.    He finished both 2015 AND 2016 being carted off the field and it nearly happened again last year.   If you have a back who can make big plays like that but is getting long in the tooth use him more carefully.    Marcus Allen once carried the rock 380 times in a season and it took a toll on him but he was able to make important plays for another dozen years when they kept him between 100-210 carries.     

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Last year he took a lot of jarring hits......which is something that almost never used to happen.   He's always been a guy who turtled and left his feet on contact which deadened the impact of hits.    But they used and abused him last year and with that workload at this stage of his career he couldn't avoid it.    Should have been sub-200 carries to extend him and get more production per touch........but instead they didn't have even a decent second RB option and gave him nearly 300 carries and were fortunate that he was able to gut it out in the playoff game.    If the end game is a deep playoff run you gotta' conserve him.    He finished both 2015 AND 2016 being carted off the field and it nearly happened again last year.   If you have a back who can make big plays like that but is getting long in the tooth use him more carefully.    Marcus Allen once carried the rock 380 times in a season and it took a toll on him but he was able to make important plays for another dozen years when they kept him between 100-210 carries.     

I hope that Ivory plays well enough to give Shady a lesser workload.  I wouldn't have hated seeing the Bills and an RB in the 4th or 5th this year to shore up that unit.

[Doc]

They need to go back to what worked in 2015 and 2016.  End of story.

[Hebert19]

11 hours ago, Shotgunner said:

 

I don't agree with this.

 

No signs of slowing down? He has seen a jump in runs that go for negative yards, and it's not because he's doing anything different. It's because he is doing everything the same, but is no longer faster than everyone else.

 

He now gets injured more often, a telltale sign of "slowing down".

 

I really like Shady, but beyond this year I just don't see it. If his stats this year drop as much as they did from 2016 to 2017 (even with more carries in 2017), we probably won't pay him 10mil in 2019.

 

Year	Team	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
2017	Bills	287	1,138	4.0	6
2016	Bills	234	1,267	5.4	13

 

 

How were our WRs?   Think they respected pass last year?

45 minutes ago, Doc said:

They need to go back to what worked in 2015 and 2016.  End of story.

Sammy and woods are coming back?